The 3 final fours for MU have had teams with multiple future NBA players, on the squad.
I saw a Jay Bilas piece awhile ago in which he said such is the best predictor of Final four teams. My cursory review of last 20 years seems to bear out that a huge majority of final four teams are/were bleesed with guys who went on to play in NBA.
I enjoy off season "hot stove" league prognosticating, but I've grown to beleive we, (and other fans of other teams) cant realistically consider we have a Final Four caliber team, until we can say, going into a season, that we have some NBA caliber talent on the team.
MU is a top 25-35 program, but my offseason hopes wont include Final fours, until the magical NBA caliber player is recruited-
- at best, we are getting closer.
(BTW, not since Al days have I had such confidence, that , in Buzz we have someone who truly can recruit NBA level talent-
- I think TC got his squad by coincidence, more than skill--1) 2 players --travis,novak in area at same time--both coaches sons; and 2) DWade, due to prop 48 issues, a largely overlooked recruit, in comparison to his talent level)
Quote from: houwarrior on May 06, 2010, 11:11:36 AM
MU is a top 25-35 program, but my offseason hopes wont include Final fours, until the magical NBA caliber player is recruited-
- at best, we are getting closer.
When Wade, Diener and Novak were recruited, none of them appeared to have "NBA" written all over them. I actually think that Scott Merritt and Todd Townsend were the highest rated recruits on the FF team. (Someone obviously feel free correct me if I'm wrong on that)
On Cracked Sidewalks they have done a similar analysis. I believe the conclusion is it is a good predictor.
knowing that vander, djo, butler, crowder and JC are all going to the NBA makes me very optimistic.
Doesn't mean you are guaranteed to get there. This year alone look at Kentucky and Kansas. You think they have less future NBA players than Butler? Or even Michigan State and West Virginia?
Quote from: MerrittsMustache on May 06, 2010, 11:31:43 AM
When Wade, Diener and Novak were recruited, none of them appeared to have "NBA" written all over them. I actually think that Scott Merritt and Todd Townsend were the highest rated recruits on the FF team. (Someone obviously feel free correct me if I'm wrong on that)
Diener and Robert Jackson were the highest rated recruits on that team. Diener was ranked #40 in the Class of 2001, RJax was #33 in the class of 1998.
Novak(#57 in 2002) and Merritt(#85 in 2000) were the only other consensus Top 100 players on that team, but Wade, Karon Bradley, and Terry Sanders all made at least one ranking.
Wait...some MU Scoopers keep telling me that the only reason we got to the Final 4 was because Crean got lucky with DWade. Yet you are telling me that we had four, top 100 rated players on that team? (None of which were Wade) And three of them currently play in the NBA?
Hmmmmmm.....
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on May 06, 2010, 12:27:35 PM
Wait...some MU Scoopers keep telling me that the only reason we got to the Final 4 was because Crean got lucky with DWade. Yet you are telling me that we had four, top 100 rated players on that team? (None of which were Wade) And three of them currently play in the NBA?
Hmmmmmm.....
Yes this is kind of the point. 74 and 77 MU teams had multiple NBA players on them also.
At time of recruiting the actual NBA potential is admittedly, still speculative, but by each March, looking for those teams that NBA scouts concur on as having real NBA draft/player prospects is good predictor of your most likely final four teams-
- over each of last 20 years at least 3 of the final four teams had at least one player go on to play in the NBA(majority of years--all four teams had one).
Having an NBA player on your college squad is not automatic assurance of a final four(kentucky/Kansas--this year--upset victims), but NOT having one dramatically/empirically raises odds, big time, your team does not make final four.
I agree with Bilas' point and wont pick a bracket, or look for MU, in the final four w/o assuring the team has an NBA guy on the team.
Quote from: houwarrior on May 06, 2010, 06:28:47 PM
Yes this is kind of the point. 74 and 77 MU teams had multiple NBA players on them also.
At time of recruiting the actual NBA potential is admittedly, still speculative, but by each March, looking for those teams that NBA scouts concur on as having real NBA draft/player prospects is good predictor of your most likely final four teams-
- over each of last 20 years at least 3 of the final four teams had at least one player go on to play in the NBA(majority of years--all four teams had one).
Having an NBA player on your college squad is not automatic assurance of a final four(kentucky/Kansas--this year--upset victims), but NOT having one dramatically/empirically raises odds, big time, your team does not make final four.
I agree with Bilas' point and wont pick a bracket, or look for MU, in the final four w/o assuring the team has an NBA guy on the team.
I like your point, however, what about talent that develops into NBA material? It's easy enough to say recruit at the NBA level, but I don't think even Buzz will get us into the realm of Kentucky recruiting. I do think Buzz can be successful finding talent that can blossom though. That will be the key.
So who on our roster now has NBA potential? My thoughts:
-- Butler: doubtful, seems like a tweener, but if he can improve his outside shooting and if Homer is right in saying he's closer to 6'8" he might get a look.
-- DJO: maybe, he's small for an NBA 2, but so is Ben Gordan, could get a look as a 3 point specialist.
-- Blue: certainly ranked high enough as a freshman, but so was Dameon Mason.
-- Others: maybe someone like Crowder, Jones, or Cadougan, but it's too early to say. Anyone else would be vastly overshooting their preliminary ranking.
Quote from: marqptm on May 06, 2010, 06:35:21 PM
I like your point, however, what about talent that develops into NBA material? It's easy enough to say recruit at the NBA level, but I don't think even Buzz will get us into the realm of Kentucky recruiting. I do think Buzz can be successful finding talent that can blossom though. That will be the key.
Agreed. Like the "roster of contender" thread (where I should have put this--lol), an NBA player can develop, over the college tenure (just as some 5 stars dont develop, or get drafted).
I think we see same point --until the nba IDs one or more of our players as likely NBA draft picks , its an odds against long shot to talk MU as a final four team.
Quote from: brewcity77 on May 06, 2010, 06:44:23 PM
So who on our roster now has NBA potential? My thoughts:
-- Butler: doubtful, seems like a tweener, but if he can improve his outside shooting and if Homer is right in saying he's closer to 6'8" he might get a look.
-- DJO: maybe, he's small for an NBA 2, but so is Ben Gordan, could get a look as a 3 point specialist.
-- Blue: certainly ranked high enough as a freshman, but so was Dameon Mason.
-- Others: maybe someone like Crowder, Jones, or Cadougan, but it's too early to say. Anyone else would be vastly overshooting their preliminary ranking.
Dwade's first step was special in college and still one of best in the NBA.
That said, the only upper level skill I have seen is some flashes of DJO (as Frascilla says--he doesnt yet know how good he can be)--the others seem to be good to great college level players, just not with the "extra" something to be REAL NBA material
I wrote the Cracked Sidewalks piece referenced above, and it is a great predictor of both the Final Four and the Elite 8.
However, once in every 5 or 6 years there is a tournament where you can throw it out the window. this year was one of them, and the last time it was that bad a predictor was actually our very own 2003 season, when there were teams with more NBA players knocked out earlier. In fact, my bracket this year in which I use it as a factor was by far the worst bracket year I have ever had.
What I have found in applying it though, is that while a big percentage of the teams with 4 or more NBA players make the Elite 8 and Final 4, there are also several that get upset in the first round. Witness Wake Forest last year, who clearly had a Final Four roster based on the NBA test and lost to Cleveland State this year.
So the key seems to be that you have a very good chance of going Final 4 with 4+ NBA players, a decent chance with 3 NBA players, AS LONG AS you don't have players already looking ahead to their NBA careers who don't really care. That was clearly Wake Forest last year, and some teams this year I believe.
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on May 06, 2010, 12:27:35 PM
Wait...some MU Scoopers keep telling me that the only reason we got to the Final 4 was because Crean got lucky with DWade. Yet you are telling me that we had four, top 100 rated players on that team? (None of which were Wade) And three of them currently play in the NBA?
Hmmmmmm.....
I think we all know they are saying that TC would have never seen a FF without Wade. If you want to talk about all the top 100 recruits he had, when Wade wasn't at MU, and the success he had with them you can try and argue your point there.
Quote from: bamamarquettefan on May 06, 2010, 07:51:08 PM
I wrote the Cracked Sidewalks piece referenced above, and it is a great predictor of both the Final Four and the Elite 8.
However, once in every 5 or 6 years there is a tournament where you can throw it out the window. this year was one of them, and the last time it was that bad a predictor was actually our very own 2003 season, when there were teams with more NBA players knocked out earlier. In fact, my bracket this year in which I use it as a factor was by far the worst bracket year I have ever had.
What I have found in applying it though, is that while a big percentage of the teams with 4 or more NBA players make the Elite 8 and Final 4, there are also several that get upset in the first round. Witness Wake Forest last year, who clearly had a Final Four roster based on the NBA test and lost to Cleveland State this year
How far back did you go with your research. I would think with so many players being one and done's because of the NBA rule that we'll start to see more teams have issues like Kentucky and less teams win like the old Duke teams that were loaded with NBA talent, but that talent remained in school for more than one year. I would think we may see more teams win championships by recruiting players that will be solid NCAA players, but for size/athletic issues don't leave early.
I think a more accurate title to this thread would read,
Does Making the FF Pave the Way to the NBA?
Quote from: 4everwarriors on May 06, 2010, 08:18:29 PM
I think a more accurate title to this thread would read,
Does Making the FF Pave the Way to the NBA?
Efficiently stated.
All cancers are tumors, but not all tumors are cancerous.
All final four teams have NBA players on them, but not all teams with NBA players make the final four.
Quote from: 4everwarriors on May 06, 2010, 08:18:29 PM
I think a more accurate title to this thread would read,
Does Making the FF Pave the Way to the NBA?
Well put. For example, if MU loses to Holy Cross in the 1st Round, D-Wade likely would have been a mid-1st-rounder (and a steal at that). If 'Cuse lost early that same year, Melo would have stayed in school. I can't imagine Gordon Hayward would be NBA-bound if Butler hadn't made it so far this year. It could also be argued that Greg Oden, Mike Conley, Roy Hibbert and Corey Brewer were all drafted higher than they should have been due to their Tourney success. There are many other examples as well.
Quote from: bilsu on May 07, 2010, 07:31:09 AM
All cancers are tumors, but not all tumors are cancerous.
All final four teams have NBA players on them, but not all teams with NBA players make the final four.
See Kentucky 09-10. (For both points. ;) )
Quote from: 4everwarriors on May 06, 2010, 08:18:29 PM
I think a more accurate title to this thread would read,
Does Is there a correlation between making the FF and making the NBA? Pave the Way to the NBA?
Fixed
From an interesting article on Yahoo that adresses this, among other sports topics.
http://sports.yahoo.com/top/news?slug=ys-forbesmyths050610
Quote• Final Four stars are overrated as NBA prospects. The evidence shows that college stars coming off Final Four runs tend to be drafted too high or too often. The 2005 champion North Carolina Tar Heels had four players taken in the first round, with mixed results for their pro teams. Historically for every star like Carmelo Anthony (Syracuse, 2003), there's at least one flop like Mateen Cleaves (Michigan State, 2000).
Quote from: houwarrior on May 06, 2010, 11:11:36 AM
The 3 final fours for MU have had teams with multiple future NBA players, on the squad.
I saw a Jay Bilas piece awhile ago in which he said such is the best predictor of Final four teams. My cursory review of last 20 years seems to bear out that a huge majority of final four teams are/were bleesed with guys who went on to play in NBA.
Future NBA Stars make Final Four teams. This is the method Biff used to make all that money betting on sports when he had the time-travelling car in Back to the Future II.
Quote from: bilsu on May 07, 2010, 07:31:09 AM
All cancers are tumors, but not all tumors are cancerous.
All final four teams have NBA players on them, but not all teams with NBA players make the final four.
ding ding ding. We have a winner I the most succinct post contest.
Quote from: Avenue Commons on May 08, 2010, 09:50:48 PM
ding ding ding. We have a winner I the most succinct post contest.
Comprehesion of the original point is lacking--which was if your team lacks NBA caliber talent, per NBA scouts in March , your team is unlikely to make the final four(based on empirical history--remember all MU FF teams met this standard, and NONE made it w/o meeting this standard)..
.so the original point is :
unless MU fans hear their player or players is/are considered NBA level talents , guessing/hoping they will make the final four is against historical odds.
...its fascinating to see how this original point permutated to the incorrect one you congratulate here.
A logic course professor would flunk anyone claiming that
"...All final four teams have NBA players on them, but not all teams with NBA players make the final four..." equals the original syllogistic point,...the point is not succint, its off point.
If you think about the statement...
"...All final four teams have NBA players on them, but not all teams with NBA players make the final four..."
is not much more logical, or profound than to say in a field of 64, 14 teams have players on them who will play in the NBA, but not all 14 will make the final four..that is true...duh
BTW, that is not to say the original post point is more elegant...as it could be simplified (the same way) to : "if your team is one of the other 50 that dont have NBA talent, dont claim you will make the final four based on history; only the 14 having the NBA guys are likely to be in the FF, based on history.
Why? Because NBA players ARE a predictor of reaching the FF.
(such would have also been the better thread title, than the one I chose--sorry, for that).