A thread about D.J. Newbill got me thinking about what people expect might from the freshmen (and from Crowder) next season. I'm not necessarily speaking in terms of stat predictions, but more in terms of the type of impact that they'll have on the team (minutes played, starts, specific roles, who they remind you of, etc). IMO, it could be interesting to hear people's thoughts.
Crowder: potential starter/garbage points/similar to 08-09 Butler
Blue: 6th man/productive but inconsistent/Buycks but more under control
Jones: biggest impact frosh/solid D/07-08 Lazar
Newbill: limited minutes/shows potential
Smith: plays short spurts to give starters quick rest/high fives Frozena
Mystery Big Man: First Team All-American
Quote from: MerrittsMustache on April 30, 2010, 12:26:53 PM
A thread about D.J. Newbill got me thinking about what people expect might from the freshmen (and from Crowder) next season. I'm not necessarily speaking in terms of stat predictions, but more in terms of the type of impact that they'll have on the team (minutes played, starts, specific roles, who they remind you of, etc). IMO, it could be interesting to hear people's thoughts.
Crowder: potential starter/garbage points/similar to 08-09 Butler
Blue: 6th man/productive but inconsistent/Buycks but more under control
Jones: biggest impact frosh/solid D/07-08 Lazar
Newbill: limited minutes/shows potential
Smith: plays short spurts to give starters quick rest/high fives Frozena
Mystery Big Man: First Team All-American
I think your pretty right on. I personally think there is a good chance both Newbill and Smith get as many minutes and EWill got this year, very few. Also, I think Blue will bring a threat to attack the rim more than the other freshmen.
I think defense in the number key for PT with Buzz. I think that is what limited Otule and Fulce (outside the injuries) and that is what got Butler in the game his first year. EWill had no awareness on the defensive end and he barely played. According to the DJO interview, if DJO is accurate about Blue's defensive presence, I think he could get good minutes. Defense is why I am not sure if Jones will see much PT. Jones has the ability to drive and shoot and he has the body. But if you can't play defense, Buzz is not putting you in.
I think Crowder will have the biggest immediate impact, followed closely by Blue and Jones. All three have the potential to play HEAVY (20+ mpg) minutes. The only two players written in stone for 30 mpg are Butler and DJO. The other 140 minutes are up for grabs. Huge opportunity for Blue and Jones to put their stamp on the program early, but if they're not yet up to the challenge the returning talent should be good enough for MU to sustain last year's production. Newbill and Smith should see their roles increase steadily throughout their careers, but I think they will play about as much in '10-'11 as Erik Williams did this year.
I think E-Will will get alot of playing time on campus. The more I see him on campus the more I realize how big he is. If he improves I think Crowder's minutes could take a hit
I'm really having trouble seeing how any of the freshmen are going to get 20+ minutes per game.
First off, there are two, no-doubt, heavy minute guys:
Butler - 35 mpg
DJO - 35
Then you have to have a point guard, and there is only one real point with experience on this team:
Cadougan - 30
Then you have one post player with experience
Otule - 25
That leaves you 75 minutes. Here is kind of how I see that playing out:
Buycks - 20 (back up pg)
Crowder - 20 (starter...perhaps more minutes)
Blue - 15
Williams - 10
Fulce - 10
Jones - ?
Newbill - ?
Smith - 0
Mbao - 0
I see it just the opposite. I see 105 mpg graduating. I see Butler, DJO, and Cadougan the only 3 sure to start. Combined 90 minutes tops. Otule, the jury is still out. I see approximately 90 minutes a game up for grabs. Lots of potential PT for Frosh.
How can you think Reggie Smith will get 0 minutes per game. He will definitely get at least 3-5 minutes. If you're talking about just the big east season then maybe he'll get 0 minutes then
Quote from: tower912 on April 30, 2010, 01:13:41 PM
I see it just the opposite. I see 105 mpg graduating. I see Butler, DJO, and Cadougan the only 3 sure to start. Combined 90 minutes tops. Otule, the jury is still out. I see approximately 90 minutes a game up for grabs. Lots of potential PT for Frosh.
If Buzz's last 2 seasons are any indication, the likes of Butler and DJO will be playing "heavy" (ie. 35 min's) minutes every night. I'll go further and say that due to experience, both Fulce and Buycks will almost double their pt as well. I understand Buzz wants to have a deep bench and spread out minutes, but due to roster turnover and recent injuries, there are very few experienced players on this roster. Therefore, I still don't see any of the newcomers playing extended minutes early in the season. The minutes will be distributed based on how they practice, understand what Buzz wants, and how much they can execute that system in game situations.
Quote from: jhags15 on April 30, 2010, 01:19:31 PM
How can you think Reggie Smith will get 0 minutes per game. He will definitely get at least 3-5 minutes. If you're talking about just the big east season then maybe he'll get 0 minutes then
I think he'll get garbage time minutes.
Look, the minute distribution I put together means nine players get double-didgit minutes per game. I might actually be generous giving that many players that much time.
Jae Crowder: I expect him to come in and take over Lazar's position pretty much from day one. I think by the time the Big East season rolls around, he'll be averaging 25-30 minutes, and while he likely won't meet Lazar's level of production in his first year, I think what he is able to contribute will be one of the biggest determining factors in our success next year.
Vander Blue: I think the comparisons to Buycks may prove accurate. Brilliant at times, erratic at others. I expect Blue to get a lot of looks in the non-conference schedule, probably 15-20 minutes a game, but unless he's really lights out, I expect him to average closer to 10-12 come Big East time. He will be one of the first off the bench in the backcourt, however.
Jones: Really not sure what I expect from him right now. I realize the upside seems tremendous, but I expect Butler, Crowder, and Otule all to log starter-type minutes, and Fulce will certainly be first off the bench for the frontcourt. If they use him as a forward, I think he'll probably see about 5-10 minutes per game, but if he can handle some play as a big shooting guard type, he could match Blue for minutes.
Newbill: Honestly, it depends on what we are getting. Early on, I don't expect him to see a lot of time. Cadougan, DJO, and Buycks will likely get most of the time in the non-conference, with Blue being first choice to spell them. If Newbill can perform, however, he could push Blue for that time off the bench. 3-8 minutes per game early on, with most of his time coming against the Gramblings of the world. Unless he really impresses, I don't think we'll see much of him after January (though I hope he does).
Smith: My initial thought is that he'll barely see any time. But the advantage he has is that he's the only natural point we have after Cadougan. If he has a good handle, he could surprise us in the early goings and get 10, maybe even 12-15 minutes per game. I know they were seniors, but how often did Buzz play without either of the points on the floor last year? My inclination is that his PT will decrease when the conference schedule starts, but if he can focus on his handle and distribution, he could surprise and get 5-8 minutes per game.
Mystery Big Man: First Team All-American
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All I can go by is what Buzz has said. He says he wants a 9.5 man rotation. He says that he wants players who can dribble pass and shoot. He says he wants a team with 13 high major players on it so when he looks down the bench he has options. From what I have SEEN, he won't play a player who is a liability on defense. So, assuming some of the newcomers can play defense to Buzz' expectations, they will get PT. If they can't play D, their PT will be limited.
Disclaimer - My expectations below are for the BE schedule and the major OOC games, not against the Presbyterians and MD-Eastern Shores, assuming everyone stays healthy:
Among Otule, Mbao and the mystery recruit, (95% Otule) they'll eat up 25-30 minutes at the 5.
Fulce and Williams will probably combine for 5-10 at the 5, and will probably share another 5-10 mpg at the 4.
For some reason, I see Jimmy Butler averaging 30-35 mpg mostly at the 3 (when Crowder and Otule are on the floor), and the rest at the 4, maybe some 5.
Cadougan plays 15-25 minutes at the point. DJO and Buycks share 50-55 mpg at the 2 and 3.
That leaves 35-70 minutes for the incoming class:
Crowder: 15-20 mpg, mostly the 4. I'll be happy if he averages 10-12 ppg and 4 rpg.
Blue: 15-20 mpg. Should also average 10-12 ppg. However, I wouldn't be surprised if he has a D.James-esque freshman season.
Jones: 0-10 mpg. I think he's a highly touted recruit, but do not see a lot of PT for him freshman year as he makes the transition. 2011-12 will be his breakout year.
Smith: 0-5 mpg at the point. Like Cadougan, will probably be a distributor, not a shooter. I'm just looking for a positive A/TO ratio from him the first year.
Newbill: 0-10 mpg. Our new secret weapon from downtown. Will play mostly when DJO is resting. Minimal contribution to the stat sheet.
Any way you look at it, this team is deep and talented. However the minutes distribution ends up next year, the competition in practice is going to make those getting minutes that much better.
I would put our top 10 against any other in the BEast. Assuming a proposed starting lineup of:
Cadougan
DJO
Buycks
Butler
Otule
That leaves
Blue
Jones
Crowder
Williams
Fulce
I'd take that second five as a collective unit over a few of the BEast bottom feeders' starting lineups. I'd probably take them over a Seton Hall/Rutgers all-star team. Three consensus top 100 players out of high school, the reigning JUCO POY, and a 2nd team JUCO All-American. Then you add Newbill, Smith and Mbao pushing everyone in practice and the situation starts to look even brighter. I can't wait 'til next fall.
I do not see Bucyks as a starter. Crowder will eventually get that spot--if not from day 1. Bucyks and or DJO at point (other than 2 minutes would be a disaster) Otule will start if healthy.
Pretty obvious for starters:
PG Caddy 25+ minutes per game
2G DJO 30+ mpg
F Crowder 20+ mpg
F Butler 30+ mpg
C Otule 20+ mpg
That leaves about 65-70 minutes for the rest, likely
Fulce 15-20
Bucyks 15
Blue 15+
Mbao 5
Williams 10 to 15 and the balance to be used by Jones, Newbill and Smith.
Best Case Scenario...........
PG Blue
SG Johnson-Odom
SF Butler
PF Crowder
C Otule
Cadougan and Buycks first guards off the bench, Jones and Fulce first forwards off the bench.
Smith, Williams, Newbill and Mbao seeing minimal time, but gaining valuable experince on an elite eight squad. Blue is a lottery pick in the 2011 NBA Draft.
Worst Case Scenario........
PG Cadougan
SG DJO
SF Buycks
PF Butler
C Fulce
Otule is an offensive liablity and foul prone on defense. Blue and Jones are inconsistent and turnover prone off the bench. Crowder is Jamil Lott. Williams continues to look like a fish out of water. Smith, Newbill and Mbao never see the court with one transferring at semester break. 16-14 record first round loss to Indiana in the NIT.
Quote from: Clarence on April 30, 2010, 03:36:27 PM
Best Case Scenario...........
PG Blue
SG Johnson-Odom
SF Butler
PF Crowder
C Otule
Cadougan and Buycks first guards off the bench, Jones and Fulce first forwards off the bench.
Smith, Williams, Newbill and Mbao seeing minimal time, but gaining valuable experince on an elite eight squad. Blue is a lottery pick in the 2011 NBA Draft.
Worst Case Scenario........
PG Cadougan
SG DJO
SF Buycks
PF Butler
C Fulce
Otule is an offensive liablity and foul prone on defense. Blue and Jones are inconsistent and turnover prone off the bench. Crowder is Jamil Lott. Williams continues to look like a fish out of water. Smith, Newbill and Mbao never see the court with one transferring at semester break. 16-14 record first round loss to Indiana in the NIT.
I agree wholeheartedly on the best and worst case scenarios. If we had enough height, bulk and production at the 4/5 that Butler could spend the majority of his PT at the 3 that would be a dream come true. The athleticism of that starting 5 would be off the charts. But if you look at the worst case starting lineup, it's not all that bad, which shows how deep the team is. Crowder as the second coming of Lott made me laugh hard. I know it was a worst case hypothetical and a joke, but Crowder has demonstrated that he can "pass, dribble, and shoot" and he's never even played a minute of D1 ball. Lott could do zero out of three. I used to cringe when we signed a JUCO player under Crean. Now I'm pumped when we sign one.