In the football thread, Marquette 84 posted:
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The 500 pound gorilla in the room is the possibility of a NCAA/BCS split.
If it never happens, fine, then all the arguments listed above against football make perfect sense.
If it does happen, and we don't have a football program, then we are SCREWED. We will be in a DII-like world for the rest of time.
Don't count on sticking with the other Big East basketball schools. If this split occurs, I would fully expect that Villanova and Georgetown--schools with a current Division I (formerly 1AA) football program--would upgrade their football to BCS status. If for no other reason for the benefit of their basketball programs and compete with UConn and Syracuse and Pitt.
Some people would say don't worry--the BCS will invite the stronger basketball-only schools to participate. I think this is wishful thinking--a school like MU would add little to nothing in terms of a national TV contract. Think of it this way--if MU wasn't part of the NCAA or dropped to D2 as was rumored during the Dukiet years, how much less would CBS's $545million/year contract be reduced?
The incremental coverage that MU would add to a combined Football/Basketball package would be nearly invisible. The BCS would already have the Milwaukee market, for example, based on the presence of Wisconsin football/basketball.
The time to start planning for this possibility--some would say this eventuality--is now. We should start planning to implement a Georgetown/Villanova-level football program, and be prepared to upgrade if the need arises. I don't see a way to start from scratch if we wait until its too late.
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Do we think this is really a possibility?
A couple of thoughts.
1) This goes against everything university presidents have stood for for 100 years. They have been about the "student athlete" and such a move as this smacks as chasing the almighty dollar. Do we think they would do this?
2) the non-football schools have a nuclear option to prevent this ... pay players. We might be on the other-side looking in, not if we offer the entire McDonald's AA $100k to $200k a year to enroll at MU. We could also expand the roster to 20. Imagine that recruiting class!! Such a move would force the non-football schools to remain relevant and they would have to be part of the equation for a TV contract.
Then the BCS schools would have to pay their bball players (all 20 of them), and then their football players (remember their are 85 of them now, maybe more if some the SEC powers want to "corner the market" and expand their rosters to 120). Then all the profits they would make by breaking with the NCAA go right back out the window.
Other Thoughts.
Quote from: AnotherMU84 on March 29, 2010, 05:44:09 PM
Other Thoughts.
Yeah. Way too many people are dreaming. There will be some changes, some will even call them big, but they will be microscopic compared to what some people are making up for attention.
Could it happen? Absolutely. Will it happen, who knows. The NCAA doesn't control Division I college football and people need to understand that first and foremost. Too many people, many here on this board, do not understand this for some reason.
The NCAA BCS split WILL happen in 2012. This was predicted some time ago by the ancient Mayans only their word for the split was mistranslated into "end of the world" by archeologists who weren't sports fans.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on March 29, 2010, 08:12:44 PM
Could it happen? Absolutely. Will it happen, who knows. The NCAA doesn't control Division I college football and people need to understand that first and foremost. Too many people, many here on this board, do not understand this for some reason.
Right...inevitably the BCS football schools will get even more powerful within the NCAA. IOW, the NCAA will come more and more under their control without the PR shot of leaving the organization entirely. And you are correct, just like the BE in the 1990s, people here don't seem to get that basketball revenue is a mere pittance compared to football revenue. And Marquette cannot really shape its own destiny here. It can position itself well and hope for the best, but really isn't in a position of strength.
I gotta agree Sultan. Why leave the NCAA and worry about what rule changes the NCAA then makes and how they will impact your costs? Why lose that control? Better to stay on the inside and quietly keep things under control.
Being in the Big East, Marquette has the option to add football and join the club, but the buy in would be huge. And the option ain't gonna be there forever.
This is an interesting post and scenario. A couple of thoughts...
From the limited information I have gathered, there are only 120 total BCS teams - 117 in conferences and 3 independents. I believe there are 297 D1 basketball programs, which leaves the BCS with a small number of schools to schedule per year for hoops. This tells me that non-BCS basketball (NCAA in this case) may still garner a lot of national attention based upon the heritage of schools like Marquette etc. The NCAA still has a strong brand and a lot of power.
This could also lead to many legal battles. The NCAA may file anti-trust against the BCS - which would be funny after seeing the NIT do the same to the NCAA a few years ago. All of this could eventually lead to bigger lawsuits around the idea of government entities subsidizing sports at state institutions at the expense of private institutions.
The idea of all TV revenue going to the BCS is also questionable. With media fragmentation, especially with cable, there may be NCAA TV contracts and BCS TV contracts or even niche networks like the Big Ten Network. Sports may be completely on-demand in the near future. Media is getting more fragmented, not less, and this BCS seperation may not play into the future of broadcast.
I am not an expert in any of this, I just don't see the sky falling. Change may come, but schools and conferences will adapt.
Quote from: Irv the Working Man on March 29, 2010, 09:37:56 PM
This is an interesting post and scenario. A couple of thoughts...
From the limited information I have gathered, there are only 120 total BCS teams - 117 in conferences and 3 independents. I believe there are 297 D1 basketball programs, which leaves the BCS with a small number of schools to schedule per year for hoops. This tells me that non-BCS basketball (NCAA in this case) may still garner a lot of national attention based upon the heritage of schools like Marquette etc. The NCAA still has a strong brand and a lot of power.
Actually there are far fewer "BCS" teams. There are only 6 BCS conferences plus Notre Dame as an independent.
There are a total of 66 BCS teams. I think you're referencing the FBS of Division I for which there are about 120.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on March 29, 2010, 09:50:16 PM
Actually there are far fewer "BCS" teams. There are only 6 BCS conferences plus Notre Dame as an independent.
There are a total of 66 BCS teams. I think you're referencing the FBS of Division I for which there are about 120.
Not according to the BCS itself. There are 6 conferences with automatic BCS bids, but they consider all 11 FBS conferences as "BCS Conferences".
Quote from: bma725 on March 29, 2010, 09:59:43 PM
Not according to the BCS itself. There are 6 conferences with automatic BCS bids, but they consider all 11 FBS conferences as "BCS Conferences".
Let me clarify then since we all know this was done to get their tit out of the ringer due to anti-trust lawsuits.
There are 6 qualifying BCS Conferences...the Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, Pac Ten, Big East and the SEC. Plus Notre Dame.
To be cute, yes the BCS now says all FBS conferences are BCS conferences even though only those 6 are automatic qualifying conferences. It's almost as if they have a separate but equal approach, which is essentially what they have done.
The more I think about this, the more it seems the anti-trust/legal issues could create a problem. I could also see a lot of political backlash by state legislatures that ultimately control funding of the large state universities. This could be similar to how Virginia politicians pressured UVa to get VaTech into the ACC, or the story about how Texas politicians pressured UT to take Baylor with them to the Big 12. There are a lot of powerful politicians out there that didn't go to a BCS school and could make a name for themselves by sticking up for the little guys and preserving the NCAA tournament, which many people consider the greatest sporting event there is.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on March 29, 2010, 10:08:17 PM
Let me clarify then since we all know this was done to get their tit out of the ringer due to anti-trust lawsuits.
There are 6 qualifying BCS Conferences...the Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, Pac Ten, Big East and the SEC. Plus Notre Dame.
To be cute, yes the BCS now says all FBS conferences are BCS conferences even though only those 6 are automatic qualifying conferences. It's almost as if they have a separate but equal approach, which is essentially what they have done.
I think the point is that there are enough teams to create an NCAA alternate without including any non BCS teams. If there were only 66 teams, then sure, those teams would have to look beyond themselves to set up a 28 game schedule.
However, with 120 teams in 11 conferences, you're there without having to go outside: 18 conference games plus one game each against a team from the other 10 conferences.
347 D1 BKB teams this season.
Quote from: Marquette84 on March 29, 2010, 10:34:06 PM
I think the point is that there are enough teams to create an NCAA alternate without including any non BCS teams. If there were only 66 teams, then sure, those teams would have to look beyond themselves to set up a 28 game schedule.
But the point is those 66 teams are the most popular, richest and generally best collegiate sports programs in the country. Think about it...11 of the Sweet 16, 7 of the Elite 8 and 3 of the Final Four are from BCS conferences. And with the hype-machine of ESPN on their side, you know that the BCS basketball championship would be held in higher esteem than a final four of Butler, Xavier, St. Mary's and Georgetown. If they want to do this, they certainly aren't going to allow a reason like basketball scheduling to get in the way.
But I don't think they are going to do this due to the legal issues mentioned in this thread. That is why I think they are just going to centralize their power within the NCAA more than anything.
Quote from: Irv the Working Man on March 29, 2010, 09:37:56 PM
This is an interesting post and scenario. A couple of thoughts...
From the limited information I have gathered, there are only 120 total BCS teams - 117 in conferences and 3 independents. I believe there are 297 D1 basketball programs, which leaves the BCS with a small number of schools to schedule per year for hoops. This tells me that non-BCS basketball (NCAA in this case) may still garner a lot of national attention based upon the heritage of schools like Marquette etc. The NCAA still has a strong brand and a lot of power.
I'm sorry, but that's just delusional. Outside of the BCS schools, what basketball schools garner national attention? Georgetown? Villanova? Marquette?
And on the other side you'd have schools like Kentucky, Kansas, North Carolina, Duke and UCLA.
Quote from: bma725 on March 29, 2010, 09:59:43 PM
Not according to the BCS itself. There are 6 conferences with automatic BCS bids, but they consider all 11 FBS conferences as "BCS Conferences".
What?!? Chicos got something wrong?!? That can't be! He's never wrong! Just ask him!
Quote from: The Sultan of South Wayne on March 30, 2010, 07:59:07 AM
But I don't think they are going to do this due to the legal issues mentioned in this thread. That is why I think they are just going to centralize their power within the NCAA more than anything.
Its hard to see what grounds that MU would have for a legal challenge if football/basketball schools choose to associate with each other.
First, the NCAA already restricts participation in D1 from lower level teams (including teams from the NAIA and NJCAA). Its not an antitrust violation for the NCAA to exclude, say, Wisconsin-Lutheran or MSOE from their basketball tournament--the NCAA has set up the criteria that W-L or MSOE don't meet--no antitrust there.
Second, there is a stronger antitrust case against the
NCAA if they attempted to leverage their power to restrict the voluntary activity of a group of teams that would want to leave and freely associate into a new league. This is why the NCAA was powerless to stop the BCS in football.
Third, the BCS would presumably be able to sidestep any legal challenges by setting up a clear set of criteria (just as the NCAA has done) that defines its membership criteria. Presumably, one of those reasonable criteria would be fielding both a basketball and football teams. Again, the NCAA has done this and are not subject to antitrust violations today.
Fourth, the BCS would not be stupid enough to go to the networks and tell them that they
cannot televise NCAA games (which was what USFL alleged that the NFL did as the heart of their case).
I think its wishful thinking that there will be a legal restriction that would prevent a subset of NCAA teams from splitting off and forming a new league.
Quote from: MerrittsMustache on March 30, 2010, 08:29:41 AM
What?!? Chicos got something wrong?!? That can't be! He's never wrong! Just ask him!
Happy to answer pornstache, I'm wrong all the time....but let's also be clear, there are 6 true BCS conferences, the BCS made those changes to cover their butt and that's the only reason. If there were truly 11 BCS conferences like the BCS claims, then all would be automatic qualifiers, but we know only 6 are.
I think it's more political pressure than actual legal grounds that would hold it back. For example, WI state legislators that didn't go to UW, or maybe represent the Milwaukee or Green Bay areas (MU, UWM, UWGB) could threaten to cut funding to UW if they went through with something like this. WI might be a bad example due to the overwhelming support for UW, but there might be other states. There was an article posted recently about how TX state legislators with ties to Baylor and Texas Tech did exactly the same thing when UT and Texas A&M were rumored to be leaving the SWC. Virginia did the same thing with UVA and VaTech. There are hardly any BCS schools in the Northeast, which covers a lot of political influence and smaller schools that live for the NCAA tourney. There are a lot of people in DC with ties to Georgetown that would not like this. Throw in all the Ivy League alum and their influence, I'm sure they like seeing a team like Cornell have a shot at the big guys.
Football has always been about the big schools, so cutting out the little guys from the BCS hasn't really changed much and hardly anyone cares. Boise State, Utah and TCU are really the only schools that have been screwed. People would shout and scream a lot more if they did the same thing in basketball. The big schools could probably do it if they wanted to, but they would risk a backlash far greater than what they've experienced in football, from both the public and politicians that ultimately control funding for the big state schools. I suppose if the money is big enough, they might think it's worth the risk.
As an aside, here's an article about the BCS and anti-trust that's not bogged down by legal jargon.
http://ncaafootball.fanhouse.com/2009/07/10/is-bcs-violating-antitrust-laws-yes-if-it-actually-existed/
Quote from: LittleMurs on March 29, 2010, 08:39:26 PM
The NCAA BCS split WILL happen in 2012. This was predicted some time ago by the ancient Mayans only their word for the split was mistranslated into "end of the world" by archeologists who weren't sports fans.
That, is hilarious. Love it.
Quote from: Marquette84 on March 30, 2010, 09:13:38 AM
Its hard to see what grounds that MU would have for a legal challenge if football/basketball schools choose to associate with each other.
MU wouldn't file suit, the NCAA would or a collection of teams harmed. The original post assumed that BCS schools would leave the NCAA.