Per Chad Millman's blog:
QuoteMarquette Golden Eagles (6) vs. Washington Huskies (11)
Current line: Marquette minus-1.5
Teddy says: "Washington is a team that needs to run and be up-tempo, and Marquette won't let them do that. But that said, I think both Pac-10 teams in the tournament are undervalued. The early money has poured in on Marquette. But as an underdog Marquette is 9-3 against the spread, and as a favorite it is 4-6 when laying 2.5 points or more. Well, Marquette is minus-2 right now. I'd take Washington, against the spread and to advance."
Doesn't make sense... what does under value have anything to do with anything? He just said that UW has to run to win and MU won't let them. If they are undervalued, why is UW only getting 2 points?
Quote from: ErickJD08 on March 16, 2010, 01:50:44 PM
Doesn't make sense... what does under value have anything to do with anything? He just said that UW has to run to win and MU won't let them. If they are undervalued, why is UW only getting 2 points?
Because it started at a pick'em and for it to have gone 2 points in 48 is pretty intense.
Personally I don't like the idea of undervaluing as well. You have to remember these "Wise Guys" bet on A LOT of game based purely on value of the pick. I'm pretty sure it's all based on a long run and not any one game in the spectrum.
Just my advice: When there's a margin as slim as 2 points, don't do it.
Quote from: 77ncaachamps on March 16, 2010, 11:12:43 PM
Just my advice: When there's a margin as slim as 2 points, don't do it.
O ye of little faith
Quote from: 77ncaachamps on March 16, 2010, 11:23:04 PM
You mean ye of little money!
Ha... sure sure. MU covering and the under is part of my $10 parlay.
Quote from: g0lden3agle on March 16, 2010, 01:54:47 PM
Because it started at a pick'em and for it to have gone 2 points in 48 is pretty intense.
Personally I don't like the idea of undervaluing as well. You have to remember these "Wise Guys" bet on A LOT of game based purely on value of the pick. I'm pretty sure it's all based on a long run and not any one game in the spectrum.
I saw it starting at 2 points. That is what espn had when it opened anyway.
Quote from: ErickJD08 on March 16, 2010, 11:40:56 PM
Ha... sure sure. MU covering and the under is part of my $10 parlay.
What's the entire parlay?
Riddle me this.... why do wiseguys always seem to be intent on going public with their "insider" opinions? That would be like Warren Buffet identifying an undervalued stock and announcing it on CNBC on a Saturday afternoon. It's never made sense to me... if you've got a hot pick in a zero-sum game, the last thing you want to do is clue in the competition.
I'm not a professional gambler; heck, I'm not even an amateur. I play the sports books for fun because it parallels what I do in real life (identify inefficiencies). So I don't know who "Teddy" is... he could be the Warren Buffet of Vegas for all I know. But common sense tells me that either Teddy isn't taking any action on the UW/MU game, he's all-in on Marquette or he's just some idiot being paid to guess.
At least with the financial markets, the idiots are required to disclose whether they're in on the deal.
The Touts will happily go public because they make money on both sides. It is not in their interest to be a Warren Buffet.
Quote from: Benny B on March 17, 2010, 08:37:25 AM
Riddle me this.... why do wiseguys always seem to be intent on going public with their "insider" opinions? That would be like Warren Buffet identifying an undervalued stock and announcing it on CNBC on a Saturday afternoon. It's never made sense to me... if you've got a hot pick in a zero-sum game, the last thing you want to do is clue in the competition.
I'm not a professional gambler; heck, I'm not even an amateur. I play the sports books for fun because it parallels what I do in real life (identify inefficiencies). So I don't know who "Teddy" is... he could be the Warren Buffet of Vegas for all I know. But common sense tells me that either Teddy isn't taking any action on the UW/MU game, he's all-in on Marquette or he's just some idiot being paid to guess.
At least with the financial markets, the idiots are required to disclose whether they're in on the deal.
Cluing in the competition doesn't really matter after you've made your bet.
Well there are plenty of stock brokers working for the 24 hour cable networks bringing you tips. I don't see how the two differ in that sense.
Thre're also plenty of 'wise guys' that charge big cash for their picks. Those usually have a confidence rating that goes with each pick. People who work for CBS/ESPN pick every game and thus are forced to make picks that they wouldn't actually bet on.
Interesting. He was on the BS Report and saying the sharps love Marquette because they know what to expect. That means the sharps have MU winning by a bucket. Maybe taking UW against the spread makes sense given his analysis, but I wouldn't bet against MU with only a 1.5 point spread.
It's still 1.5, right?
Quote from: Avenue Commons on March 17, 2010, 09:09:19 PM
Interesting. He was on the BS Report and saying the sharps love Marquette because they know what to expect. That means the sharps have MU winning by a bucket. Maybe taking UW against the spread makes sense given his analysis, but I wouldn't bet against MU with only a 1.5 point spread.
It's still 1.5, right?
Yeah, my brother is gonna be in Vegas in 2 hours. I need to lock that in.
Teddy "the wise-guy" is Teddy ("Covers") Sevransky. I've heard him many times on the Sports Memo Radio Show. It's a radio show dedicated exclusively to sports handicapping. Here's a NY Times article on Teddy from a few years ago: http://www.majorwager.com/forums/mess-hall/9746-ny-times-article-ted-sevransky-he-knows-when-fold-em-well-not-always.html
His life is not real glamorous!
June 4, 2004
THE GAMBLER
He Knows When to Fold 'em. Well Not Always.
CHARLIE LeDUFF
NY TIMES
Ted Sevransky is a tout, a solicitor of information for the assistance of bettors. He is one of those rare men who possess the ability to augur the meaning of a hangnail or a strained calf muscle into the outcome of a sporting event. So sure is he in this gift that Mr. Sevransky never advises a bet that he does not make himself. He lists his occupation on his tax forms as professional gambler.
To make it as a professional gambler, one must have endurance, little need for food or sunlight and an allergy to physical activity. Above all, one must be able to absorb the financial rabbit punches brought on by one's own misguided confidence.
"A lot is made about the broken-down gambling addict," says Mr. Sevransky, a nasally, nicotine-stained 36-year-old who cannot be considered unhandsome.
"But it can be a good, clean, honest living," he says in a tone so earnest it is easy to believe him.
At the heart of it, Mr. Sevransky is an advice columnist who apprises sports gamblers of possible miscalculations in the lines offered by the Las Vegas casinos and offshore books.
He charges $1,000 for a season's advice and can be found at www.whocovers.com.
In a town of single men, he is a single man who works exclusively from his apartment in his underwear in a room with no amenities except a bed with filthy sheets and the tools of his trade: a computer, a satellite dish and an enormous television set. He lives on the north side of town and seems to subsist on Reese's peanut butter cups and processed cheese.
He moved to Las Vegas six years ago, fed up with a life of drifting and obscurity, the odd job here and there. The same old story of most people who move here. The one told in five minutes.
"I was 30 and it was just time to get on with it, you know?" he says. "Vegas is the destination. The capital of it all."
He has made a name for himself on the AM radio sports shows. His name recently appeared on the marquee of the Stardust as a top handicapper in town, and last year he beat the spread on football 58 percent of the time. A neat, clean living.
Still, his townhouse has bare walls, cluttered floors, a sofa the color of soiled socks, no womanly touches whatsoever and, sadly, no woman.
"I'm not living with her anymore," he said through a cigarette.
And that is the unaccounted, undebited social cost of the life of a tout.
Loneliness. Mr. Sevransky is philosophical: you win some, you lose some.
"That's Vegas, baby."