Interestingly, Seton Hall was up 3 against Providence and didn't foul. North Texas instituted the same strategy against Troy. Both teams up by 3 won. Just sayin...
in the same North Texas - Troy game the commentator (his name escapes me and I'm too lazy to look it up) said something to the effect of "Inside of 5 seconds, in my studies, fouling when up by three quadruples or quintuples the leading team's chance of winning."
Thats pretty much a direct quote. It doesn't sound like the most scientific thing I've ever heard, but if he actually has done some research on the subject, its a pretty strong argument.
PS: I am aware that the inside of 5 seconds caveat is a big one, particularly considering recent.... developments.
Staying on the case of Seton Hall at the end here, I can't say that I would have thought fouling for Hall would have been a smart strategy, considering how awful of a FT shooting team Seton Hall was (31-44 on the night). If my team was shooting FTs that poorly, I definitely would not have fouled.
Now let's keep arguing about something that happened 72 hours ago.
Anecdotes aren't data. You point to two cases where not fouling paid off. Two cases where not fouling didn't pay off? Against the Domers this year and against Georgetown last year, I think.
Edit: That's just to say that no one is right in this situation. If Buzz had elected to foul and lost, it would have been the wrong decision. If the Domers had missed that last 3 after Buzz elected to play D, it would have been the correct decision. Personally, I'd have fouled but IAMNA coach.
Quote from: The Pickle on March 09, 2010, 08:26:55 PM
Interestingly, Seton Hall was up 3 against Providence and didn't foul. North Texas instituted the same strategy against Troy. Both teams up by 3 won. Just sayin...
If you saw the game/highlights, the Seton Hall coach was screaming for his team to foul and immediately got in his player's faces after the game to let them know they did not do what he asked them or what they are coached to do. I'm a strong proponent of fouling in that case, as is Bobby Gonzalez.
Quote from: Tom Crean's Tanning Bed on March 09, 2010, 08:45:04 PM
Staying on the case of Seton Hall at the end here, I can't say that I would have thought fouling for Hall would have been a smart strategy, considering how awful of a FT shooting team Seton Hall was (31-44 on the night). If my team was shooting FTs that poorly, I definitely would not have fouled.
Now let's keep arguing about something that happened 72 hours ago.
Relax. I'm not arguing anything just saying it was interesting those teams chose not to foul...