Lunardi on MU
Just got off a teleconference with Joe Lunardi, ESPN's Bracketologist, and was able to ask him about MU -- more specifically how much last night's convincing 69-48 victory over Louisville helped the Golden Eagles, and what they need to do from this point forward.
"I don't know if the margin of victory is a big deal as much as they're on a pretty good winning streak here," he said. "Part of that is the way the Big East schedule fell, with the Villanova double early on and all those close games. Now all the close games are going their way, and they're evening out.
"I think Marquette is just short of the lock board at this point. I think Saturday would finish the job. Right now they're No. 32 on my S-curve, which is as high as they've been since the pre-season. That's an 8 for a team that two or three weeks ago was out of the field. They could go up another couple lines, I think."
http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/86254197.html
Has an 11 win (modern) Big East team ever not made the tourney?
Why is he so afraid to lock us in, is it because UCONN could still make the tourney as well as ND. Even if they played their way in you couldn't leave MU out based upon them being from the same conference.
Quote from: Stone Cold on March 03, 2010, 01:18:48 PM
Has an 11 win (modern) Big East team ever not made the tourney?
No. According to Mac on the pre-game last night, 14 out of 15 ten win teams have also made it.
I don't know if we can ever truly relax this season, even with 11-12 wins. The DePaul and NC State games are really bad. Our cupcakes were too soft, and it is driving all of our numbers down. There are really easy ways to justify keeping us out still, so we remain an 11 conference win bubble team.
In the end, I am confident we get in, especially after beating most of the bubble teams in the BEast.
I'd rather see us go in to ND with something to prove. I really like this matchup for us. There is no way that ND can keep us in front of them if they play man, or keep up with ball reversals in a zone. Let's get to 12 wins and be even closer to a lock for Lunardi.
I won't feel comfortable until I see "Marquette" in the bracket during the pairings show. I don't care what we are seeded.
Quote from: PuertoRicanNightmare on March 03, 2010, 01:31:49 PM
I won't feel comfortable until I see "Marquette" in the bracket during the pairings show. I don't care what we are seeded.
+1
To be honest, blowing out ND, beating our first opponent at the Garden (even if it is UConn), and then beating Pitt would only give me 99.9% confidence. People can still talk about DePaul.
Our seed is going to be lower than we think because our RPI sucks. Unless we take out a few big dogs in NYC I suspect we wind up as a 9/10 seed. People get all worked up over RPI for Bubble teams, but I think RPI is more important in seeding. Xavier and Georgetown for example will be seeded significantly higher than us becuase of RPI, even though we beat them both.
Quote from: HoopsMalone on March 03, 2010, 01:34:23 PM
+1
To be honest, blowing out ND, beating our first opponent at the Garden (even if it is UConn), and then beating Pitt would only give me 99.9% confidence. People can still talk about DePaul.
The scenario you just described would get us no worse than a 7 seed, and I'd be a little pissed it was that low in that case.
Lunardi is right. MU is not a lock at this point and needs one more win to make it so. The simple fact is that MU should win at least one more game, be that ND or in the BET, and therefore, it's reasonable to assume that they they will be a lock very soon. Their destiny is in their hands, which is exactly what you want with one game left in the season.
However, I can foresee MU missing the tourney with 11 conference wins if all of the following occur:
1) MU falls flat on their face against the Irish.
2) MU loses to the likes of Cincy or Rutgers in the first round of the BET.
3) Three of Gonzaga, Butler, UTEP, and North Iowa lose their respective conference tourneys.
And please people... quit worrying about RPI. Your RPI isn't as important as the RPI of those you've played. MU is 4-7 vs. top 50 and 8-7 vs top 100... those are so much more meaningful to the committee than MU's current RPI of 49 (not to mention that MU will likely be bumped up or down a seed any way because of the glut of Big East teams in the 9-12 seed range).
How on earth is MU not a lock, Joey?
If Marquette goes 11-7 in conference (including a bushel of road wins) and finishes 5th in the nation's 3rd best conference by RPI yet doesn't make the NCAA tournament...what's the point of playing in the Big East?
RPI be damned....much of that damage was early in the year when MU lost its starting center, lost its most talented freshman and was dealing with a backcourt that had not yet accounted for the loss of a guy many thought would start. What happened when things were ironed out? MU rolled in the season's last six weeks when the games really matter.
Wake up Joey. Seed the Warriors.
MU is a lock.
After tonight, either UCONN or ND will be out (most likely) and we will be on the "lock" list.
Quote from: HoopsMalone on March 03, 2010, 01:34:23 PM
+1
To be honest, blowing out ND, beating our first opponent at the Garden (even if it is UConn), and then beating Pitt would only give me 99.9% confidence. People can still talk about DePaul.
If this happened and Marquette didnt get in it would be the biggest sham in NCAA tournament history. MU would be ATLEAST a 7 seed in this situation, maybe a 6 or 5. That would be a 12-6 finish in conference and a 23-10 finish overall (assuming MU lost the next game in the semi's) That would also include another top 50 win, maybe 2 if its UConn
More likely, or more hopeful, IMO, would be a win vs ND, and then a first round game against Cincinnatti or Rutgers. A win in that game puts MU in the 7-8 seed range (hopefully 7). A win in the next game against Pitt or WVU puts MU in the 7-6-5 range
A loss to ND and then in the first round puts MU in the 10-12 seed range
A win against ND and then first round loss prob in the 8-10 range.
PS- It might be better to play Cincinnatti than Rutgers, because I believe Rutgers would be a "bad loss" as their RPI is sub 100
Quote from: Benny B on March 03, 2010, 01:47:15 PM
Lunardi is right. MU is not a lock at this point and needs one more win to make it so. The simple fact is that MU should win at least one more game, be that ND or in the BET, and therefore, it's reasonable to assume that they they will be a lock very soon. Their destiny is in their hands, which is exactly what you want with one game left in the season.
However, I can foresee MU missing the tourney with 11 conference wins if all of the following occur:
1) MU falls flat on their face against the Irish.
2) MU loses to the likes of Cincy or Rutgers in the first round of the BET.
3) Three of Gonzaga, Butler, UTEP, and North Iowa lose their respective conference tourneys.
And please people... quit worrying about RPI. Your RPI isn't as important as the RPI of those you've played. MU is 4-7 vs. top 50 and 8-7 vs top 100... those are so much more meaningful to the committee than MU's current RPI of 49 (not to mention that MU will likely be bumped up or down a seed any way because of the glut of Big East teams in the 9-12 seed range).
Completly disagree with all of your analysis. Particularily your commentary about RPI..notice..as your write, MU is 4-7 vs. Top 50, and 8-7 versus top 100..which essentially means all of MU's losses are to top 50 teams, and they've not gotten beat by any teams 50-100. Furthermore, the Top 50 record is more deceiving as if it were reduced to record against Top 18 RPI, MU would be 2-6. With our 6 losses coming to the teams currently ranked 3 (Cuse), 6(WV), 8(Nova), 8(Nova), 9(Pitt), 18(Wiscon) with wins agains Xavier (13) and GTown (14). My feeling is MU could lose to ND and lose in the first round of the Big East tourney and still get an 8 seed..which we don't want. Factor in margin of defeat to these Top 18 RPI rated teams, and include 2 wins against Top 15...and I'd be shocked if MU got an 11 or 12 seed. Beat ND and win a Big East Tourney game..could easily see us as a 5 seed.
Quote from: NYWarrior on March 03, 2010, 01:47:24 PM
How on earth is MU not a lock, Joey?
If Marquette goes 11-7 in conference (including a bushel of road wins) and finishes 5th in the nation's 3rd best conference by RPI yet doesn't make the NCAA tournament...what's the point of playing in the Big East?
RPI be damned....much of that damage was early in the year when MU lost its starting center, lost its most talented freshman and was dealing with a backcourt that had not yet accounted for the loss of a guy many thought would start. What happened when things were ironed out? MU rolled in the season's last six weeks when the games really matter.
Wake up Joey. Seed the Warriors.
It's obvious that he didn't watch the game. If the committee watches the games (which I heard they do), they will see two teams playing to solidify their spot in the tourney and MU just dominated the other team.
Despite our non conference schedule and the loss to DePaul...still sick to my stomach thinking about that...there is no way the committee can over look Marquette with the way they've played the last month. 11 wins in the Big East (they've secured 5th in the conference with last night's game), .500 record on the road, 3 straight over time wins on the ROAD, and one of a handful of teams that hasn't lost by more than 9 points...the others last I checked were Kansas, Kentucky, and Purdue...good company to be in.
Lunardi might not have us in as a lock yet, but a lot of other so called experts do have us in because this team is worthy of dancing in the Big Dance this March.
With all due respect, Lunardi is full of it. Everyone has us as a lock except him. Don't tell me that the # 5 team in the BE will not get a bid. It's Bulls**t.
Bristol, Connecticut is probably still trying to figure out how we beat UConn and then destroyed Louisville, which last I checked also beat UConn this past weekend. I wouldn't be shocked to see Lunardi "lock" UConn into the tourney if they won tonight at ND.
Its quite simple... The more teams that are consider "on the bubble", the more interest in Lunardi's brackets/blog/reports. Yes, there are real bubble teams (see UCONN or ND), but MU is not one of them.
There is a 0% chance MU will not be in the NCAA tournament this year.
Quote from: NavinRJohnson on March 03, 2010, 02:41:35 PM
There is a 0% chance MU will not be in the NCAA tournament this year.
Absolutely agree. The 5th place Big East team is getting in the NCAA Tournament.
I think Lunardi is just trying to keep MU humble and working hard ;)
But seriously, crazy things happen in conference tournaments that upset the whole applecart. The tourneys largely hold form then I see no problem.
If 11 BE wins won't get a team in the NCAA, that does not bode well for the 16-team BE concept.
Another thing to consider, MU has so far beaten every bubble team in the BE it has faced. I don't think the others can say that.
He did not take kindly to some MU Scoopers taking Chico's to the woodshed about this soft bubble talk
Lunardi has us as a 7 in his newest bracket, im pretty sure we cant drop that many seeds by losing 2 games. All we need to do is keep winning so we get away from that 8/9 game. I will be so pissed if we get that.