I'm afraid if MU beats ND (which I think they will) and wins one BE tourney game (which they might), then they will end up with the dreaded 8/9 seed.
Would it be better for MU to lose their next two games? I know nobody wants to lose to ND, but for their NCAA chances, it might be best in the long run. A 12 seed is a pretty good spot for them, imo.
Would beating ND and losing the first BE game still put MU in that 8/9 spot?
It's nothing to worry about. Its an honor to have our name called, But i know what you mean.
Let's win saturday, and win twice in new york, and sneak up to 7.
I was thinking about this too. I came to the conclusion with all of the procedural moves the committee makes (especially if the BE gets 8 teams) it will be tough to determine what seed we will get. Therefore lets win out!
If we do get an 8/9 maybe we will be the strongest 8/9 and be placed against the weakest #1, Duke. I think we can hold our own with Duke.
You're seriously afraid of MU beating ND? That might be the strangest thing I've ever read on this board.
Just win and let the rest sort itself out.
Quote from: gumbyandpokey on March 03, 2010, 09:54:11 AM
I'm afraid if MU beats ND (which I think they will) and win one BE tourney game (which they might), then they will end up with the dreaded 8/9 seed.
Would it be better for MU to lose their next two games? I know nobody wants to lose to ND, but for their NCAA chances, it might be best in the long run. A 12 seed is a pretty good spot for them, imo.
Would beating ND and losing the first BE game still put MU in that 8/9 spot?
Try to lose games to get a lower seed? Please tell me you forgot to put that in teal.
Lunardi had us as a 9 seed BEFORE beating UL. I think with a win against ND and success in the BET, we can get up to a 7.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
I think we were in the 9-10 range coming in to louisville. We should be around 8/9 now. I think beating ND, and at least one in the BE tourney would bump us up into the 6/7 range. I think we will be very pleasantly surprised with our seed this year. I bet we end up as a 6.
We beat ND, there is no way we aren't safely into the upper half. Procedural issues would be the danger (could also work in our favor).
If MU beats ND and wins 2 games in the tourney they'll be. 6 seed IMO. lunardi always gets the teams right but he's off on seeds.
Think about it, if MU beats ND that's 9 of 10 in the big east! 2 wins in the tourney would mean 11 or 13 in the best conference in america.
Quote from: Jacks DC on March 03, 2010, 10:01:50 AM
Try to lose games to get a lower seed? Please tell me you forgot to put that in teal.
Not try to lose games, no.
But it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if they did, either.
I just want MU out of that 8/9 bracket.
Quote from: esotericmindguy on March 03, 2010, 10:06:56 AM
If MU beats ND and wins 2 games in the tourney they'll be. 6 seed IMO. lunardi always gets the teams right but he's off on seeds.
Think about it, if MU beats ND that's 9 of 10 in the big east! 2 wins in the tourney would mean 11 or 13 in the best conference in america.
actually we have won 9 of our last 10 through Louisville so it would be 10 of 11 and 12 of 14 if we win two in the BET
I bet if we beat ND and get one in the Beast tourney, we'll be a seven. Win two, we'll be a six IMHO.
What's amazing/awesome is that a little over a month ago anybody here would have been laughed off the site had they suggested MU needed to fear a second-round matchup with a #1 seed.
Unless, I guess, they were talking about a seocnd-round NIT matchup.
Short of the Final Four season, this has got to be one of the most enjoyable runs of MU basketball in 20+ years.
Quote from: TheButlerDidIt on March 03, 2010, 10:09:41 AM
I bet if we beat ND and get one in the Beast tourney, we'll be a seven. Win two, we'll be a six IMHO.
Each win in the BET doesn't translate directly into a jump in seed.
I've seen that assumption made around here in past years and it never quite works out that well.
He has us as a 7 right now with a matchup vs old dominion and second round vs kansas state. Would love this bracket
Lets not start chearing like fantasy football fans, I want the Bears to win but I want Aaron Rodger to throw 5 TD's.
I'm happy were most likely a lock for the tourney but no matter who we play right now after seeing the team effort last night I think this team is coming on strong at the right time. Bring on whomever, I think it would be great even if MU scared a #1 seed.
Seeding doesn't mean jack squat once the ball is tossed in the air.
I know everyone hates the 8/9 seed because the prize for a first round win is a beat down by a 1 seed. I don't see it that way. Everyone talks about the 12 seed upsets, but fact is you still have better odds of winning in round 1 as an 8 or 9 than you do as 12. I'll take one win in the tourney over zero. Then, if you win in round 2, you effectively inherit the number 1 seed and easiest path from there on out. The way this MU team can shoot it, I'll take that chance.
I want an 8/9 game. If we win, it makes our 2nd round game a marquee matchup and gives us a chance to make some very loud noise early!
Quote from: swimmer on March 03, 2010, 10:19:26 AM
I know everyone hates the 8/9 seed because the prize for a first round win is a beat down by a 1 seed. I don't see it that way. Everyone talks about the 12 seed upsets, but fact is you still have better odds of winning in round 1 as an 8 or 9 than you do as 12. I'll take one win in the tourney over zero. Then, if you win in round 2, you effectively inherit the number 1 seed and easiest path from there on out. The way this MU team can shoot it, I'll take that chance.
the response to your comment is a "Yes" with a "but"
Even though winning a first round game as an 8/9 is close to a 50/50, odds of winning a 2nd round game as a 10-12 seed are much better. AZwarrior posted the win loss record by seed a few days/pages ago and since I keep losing it, I am going to re-post, for the argument that a 7, 10-12 would be better than the 8/9.
seed 1st rnd 2nd rnd
#7...............60-36.............18-42
#8...............44-52...............9-35
#9...............52-44...............3-49
#10.............36-60.............18-18
#11.............30-66.............11-19
#12.............31-65.............16-15
Regardless of who we get, I don't think anyone wants to face us in the tournament. We are ridiculously dangerous to other teams and, at times, ourselves.
Quote from: Ari Gold on March 03, 2010, 10:35:36 AM
the response to your comment is a "Yes" with a "but"
Even though winning a first round game as an 8/9 is close to a 50/50, odds of winning a 2nd round game as a 10-12 seed are much better. AZwarrior posted the win loss record by seed a few days/pages ago and since I keep losing it, I am going to re-post, for the argument that a 7, 10-12 would be better than the 8/9.
seed 1st rnd 2nd rnd
#7...............60-36.............18-42
#8...............44-52...............9-35
#9...............52-44...............3-49
#10.............36-60.............18-18
#11.............30-66.............11-19
#12.............31-65.............16-15
Yes, but if I recall correctly from AZwarrior's post, that win percentage reverts back in favor of the 8/9 in round 3, which is a result of "taking over" the 1 seed's easy path. Give me the best seed possible. They are given out in the order they are for a reason, to reward the better teams with an easier path to the championship. Maybe not an easier path to the sweet 16, but an easier path to the championship. Now a championship is unlikely, but I'll still go with the best chance for a first round win.
Quote from: Mu2323 on March 03, 2010, 10:16:56 AM
He has us as a 7 right now with a matchup vs old dominion and second round vs kansas state. Would love this bracket
Kansas State is a good team for sure and would be a tough 2nd round matchup for us, but I'll definitely take it over a Kansas or Kentucky.
I am thinking that we could make a run here though regardless of who we play... we are not affraid of anyone and shouldn't be!
Quoteseed 1st rnd 2nd rnd
#7...............60-36.............18-42
#8...............44-52...............9-35
#9...............52-44...............3-49
#10.............36-60.............18-18
#11.............30-66.............11-19
#12.............31-65.............16-15
These percentages dont mean anything, too many statistics. Lets see how it plays out, but I think we will be a tough matchup against whomever. Once again I think its fun to prognosticate who we might play and whatnot but lets just enjoy the season as is and we can look ahead when the brackets come out.
I had zero expectations of this team having a chance to make the NCAA tournament. I could care less what seed they are! Bob Knight this morning said that he didn't matter what seeds his teams were, if they were good they were going to win! Hard to argue with that!
This team and coach does not have the mindset to "tank" games,,,,,nor should they. Best way to avoid the #8/#9 slot is continue winning. I'm sure they would rather go in as a hot #6/#7 seed than a #10/#11 seed that took the foot off the gas at the end of the season.
How do we avoid the 8/9 seed?
In the words of Al Davis, "Just Win Baby."
;D
All seriousness here, if we win on Saturday, and win at least 1 in NYC, we're staring at probably a 6/7 seed line. Despite the issues with RPI/bad losses, 2 more wins would put us at 22-10, including 11 of 13 to end the season. The committee likes to reward hot teams, and with the type of run we've put together the last month, we certainly qualify as that.
Don't forget, a 2nd win in the BET would be over Pitt. That would carry a little extra weight.
Quote from: Tom Crean's Tanning Bed on March 03, 2010, 11:14:59 AM
The committee likes to reward hot teams, and with the type of run we've put together the last month, we certainly qualify as that.
I assume thats what they were trying to achieve by looking at the record in the last 12 games. If I'm not mistaken, they are no longer using this measure to select the field. Now, seeding, who knows?
Quote from: BrewCity on March 03, 2010, 11:21:19 AM
Don't forget, a 2nd win in the BET would be over Pitt. That would carry a little extra weight.
or West Va.
We avoid an 8/9 seed by not losing our next 2 games. IMO, we are in the tourny easily and won't be getting a 11 or 12 seed no matter what. That leaves 4 through 10 with a good shot at a 6 if we win our next 2 games and lose to a Pitt. Win 1 or 2 more and we will be in the other equation of being a 5 seed and being picked by many to lose to a 12.
You can't be seeded higher in the tourney than you are in your conference. Right now, we have the 5 seed in conference. Beat ND, win one in NYC, and you are looking at a 6 seed, amazingly enough.
Quote from: TJ on March 03, 2010, 10:00:02 AM
Just win and let the rest sort itself out.
I think this pretty much says it all. And this goes for the NCAA tournament, too.
Quote from: tower912 on March 03, 2010, 12:13:19 PM
You can't be seeded higher in the tourney than you are in your conference. Right now, we have the 5 seed in conference. Beat ND, win one in NYC, and you are looking at a 6 seed, amazingly enough.
So Pitt, Louisville, AND UConn were all number one seeds in the Big East tournament last year?
Dang. I forgot. I just went with traditional wisdom. Busted.
We beat ND, win a game in the Big east tornament, and there is no way we get seeded lower than 7.
I don't think it matters what our seed is.
Jesus wants Marquette in the Sweet Sixteen. If we have to beat a #1 seed to do it, that's okay with the Man.
The part that scares me most about being an 8/9 is the fact that theres a 2/3 chance we draw KU or UK. I know we have handled ourselves well being undersized all year but those 2 are just way too much for us. We would get absolutly worked.
Quote from: TJ on March 03, 2010, 10:00:02 AM
You're seriously afraid of MU beating ND? That might be the strangest thing I've ever read on this board.
Just win and let the rest sort itself out.
+1,000,000,000,000,000,000
If we lose to Notre Dame AND lose in First Round of Big East tourney, I project we will be an 8 or 9. Beat ND, and lose First Round of BE Tourney - 6, Beat ND and win First Round of BE Tourney 4 or 5.
We are 0-5 against RPI Top 10 (with total margin of losses 17 points) Cuse, WVU, Nova, Nova, Pitt
We are 2-1 against RPI Teams 10-20 (Xavier, Gtown and Wisky)
We are 7-1 against RPI Teams 20-100.
Think about this for a minute, we are 9-2 against RPI Teams 10-100. You can throw out DePaul and NC State as anaomlies.
Ners, I like the way you think.
Quote from: BrewCity on March 03, 2010, 05:04:52 PM
Ners, I like the way you think.
Thank you...based on our 9-2 record against RPI Teams 10-100...I would be willing to bet there are very few teams not seeded as 1, 2s or 3s, who could provide that same resume. The sad thing is our Top 50 RPI record looks bad, due to being skewed by 5 losses against Top 10 RPI team. Hopefully the committe look a little deeper. All this said, it really seems we shouldn't be seeded anything less than a 6 assuming we beat ND.
Always, always try to win. Let's finish strong and go in to the BET ready and able.
1st up - let's beat ND.
GO MARQUETTE!!!!!
Ners i really dont see us getting a 4 seed unless we win out. A 5 if we get to the championship in my opinion, maybe just by beating PITT. But anyways if i could have it my way i would LOVE a 6 seed. Not a single 3 seed scares me, and i have to feel we are due after 2 years of heartbreakers. Then in the sweet 16 we would atleast get a 2 seed over a 1. I want a 6 seed, or an 11 for that matter. Btw, i like the 9-2 stat that you dug up.