Here's the bracket if the season were ending today (updated through today's games).
Movement since last week:
Syracuse -- Dropped from #1 to #2
Villanova -- Jumped from #2 to #1
West Virginia -- Dropped from #3 to #4
Georgetown -- Dropped from #4 to #5
Pittsburgh -- Jumped from #5 to #3
Notre Dame -- Dropped from #7 to #9
Marquette -- Jumped from #8 to #7
Cincinnati -- Jumped from #9 to #8
UConn -- Dropped from #11 to #12
Providence -- Dropped from #12 to #14
Seton Hall -- Jumped from #13 to #11
St. John's -- Jumped from #14 to #13
(http://i32.photobucket.com/albums/d15/MUBasketball/bracketWE2-14.jpg)
Great post. I love it. Can't believe UConn is a 12 seed. Who would have thought?
Great bracket. In the updated projections, both RealTime and Pomeroy now have us favored to win our last 6 games. Since RPIRealtime treats these as 6 projected wins, they have us finishing 13-5 and 4th place for the double bye. Since Pomeroy deals in percentages and only has us winning by between 3 and 5 points in the three road games, he figures we drop 2 of the 6 games and finish one game behind Pitt in 5th place.
Both have us ending up tied with Gtown, so that head-to-head tie-breaker could be huge.
Realtime says we would finish 39th in the RPI if we did win all 6 games, though I don't know how much that drops for every loss. I'll also note that since the BE expansion Pitt and Marquette are the only two teams to get 10 wins all four years, and it looks like we could both make it five straight.
RPIRealtime projected record 1st, Pomeroy 2nd
1. Syr 16-2, 14-4 (2nd Pomeroy)
2. Nova 15-3, 15-3 (1st Pomeroy)
3. WVU 13-5, 12-6 (3rd Pomeroy)
4. Marquette 13-5, 11-7 (5th Pomeroy)
5. Gtown 13-5 (proj L WVU), 11-7 (6th Pomeroy proj L WV)
6. Pitt 12-6, 12-6 (4th Pomeroy)
7. S. Florida 10-8,9-9 (8th Pomeroy)
8. SH 9-9, 8-10 (9th Pomeroy)
9. Lville 9-9, 10-8 (7th Pomeroy)
10. ND 9-9, 7-11 (11th Pomeroy)
11. Cincy 7-11, 8-10 (10th Pomeroy)
12. Prov 4-14, 5-13 (14th Pomeroy)
13. UConn 4-14, 7-11 (12th Pomeroy)
14. Rutgers 4-14,5-13 (15th Pomeroy)
15. St. Johns 3-15,6-12 (13th Pomeroy)
16. DePaul 3-15, 3-15 (16th Pomeroy)
Why wouldn't we be 6? I thought we have the tiebreaker over Louisville in the standings right now?
Id love to see us get a four seed and Nova a one seed. I would love another crack at them in our potential second game. Beating them could get us to a 6 or 7 seed along with the work it would take to get to a 4 seed in the BE.
Quote from: bamamarquettefan on February 14, 2010, 11:22:29 PM
I'll also note that since the BE expansion Pitt and Marquette are the only two teams to get 10 wins all four years, and it looks like we could both make it five.
And there it is! I hate when people quote this stat!!! it would mean something if we have won something....but we haven't. Pitt has had NCAA tourney success along with uconn. Lou ran the conference tourney and reg season. Syracuse has won a conference title. We have nothing. So, please don't continue to "note" that fact. it's all about the hardware, no? find me an Olympian from the US that is simply happy to qualify. their eyes are on gold..and should be.
Quote from: warrior55 on February 15, 2010, 09:03:41 AM
Why wouldn't we be 6? I thought we have the tiebreaker over Louisville in the standings right now?
I think we are listed ahead of L'Ville in the standings because we have 1 less loss in our overall record, but they would get the #6 because they have the tiebreaker over us. This is just a guess, but I assume since we have not played L'Ville yet, the current tiebreaker would be record against the top team (we're 0-2 v. Nova). If that doesn't settle it, then go to #2 (we're 0-1 v. Cuse, they are 1-0).
QuoteI think we are listed ahead of L'Ville in the standings because we have 1 less loss in our overall record, but they would get the #6 because they have the tiebreaker over us. This is just a guess, but I assume since we have not played L'Ville yet, the current tiebreaker would be record against the top team (we're 0-2 v. Nova). If that doesn't settle it, then go to #2 (we're 0-1 v. Cuse, they are 1-0).
Thanks!
Quote from: wiscoave on February 15, 2010, 09:32:38 AM
And there it is! I hate when people quote this stat!!! it would mean something if we have won something....but we haven't. Pitt has had NCAA tourney success along with uconn. Lou ran the conference tourney and reg season. Syracuse has won a conference title. We have nothing. So, please don't continue to "note" that fact. it's all about the hardware, no? find me an Olympian from the US that is simply happy to qualify. their eyes are on gold..and should be.
Seriously? It shows continued success in a difficult conference from a team that some people in said conference weren't pleased about admitting. Additionally, it shows the long term strength of the program. Did Pitt have a significant injury to Levance Fields or Dejuan Blair in that time? And Lville ran the tourney and regular season and then choked in the tourney as the #1 overall seed?
We can do this all day. We all want Marquette to win a conference championship and play well into the tournament. But to have consistent success is a harbinger of future things to come.
We are a Lopez shot and a healthy DJ away from having consistent success in the season and at least Sweet 16's to back it up. The law of averages would have to suggest a break go our way in March soon. Haven't had much to talk about in 7 years for a team that wins like MU does.
I don't think anyone is completely satisfied with 10+ wins and then never making it to the second weekend of the tourney. However, the Amigos years were important to bridge us from being the program that Al made and Wade resurrected for a year to being consistently competitive again.
I like the 10+ wins/year thing personally but if that is all we are hanging our hats on in a few years, I will still keep it in perspective but not be as happy.
Quote from: wiscoave on February 15, 2010, 09:32:38 AM
And there it is! I hate when people quote this stat!!! it would mean something if we have won something....but we haven't. Pitt has had NCAA tourney success along with uconn. Lou ran the conference tourney and reg season. Syracuse has won a conference title. We have nothing. So, please don't continue to "note" that fact. it's all about the hardware, no? find me an Olympian from the US that is simply happy to qualify. their eyes are on gold..and should be.
So dumb...
Would I replace a ten win season with a Final Four run or conference championship? Yes, but since I can't choose, I will be happy with consistent success. (I am not claiming you are) If somone is a fan that comes in March 1, then that stat means absolutely nothing. If you watch almost every game on TV and/or blackberry AND your day/night becomes exponentially better or worse with every win or loss, then that stat means something. I like watching my team win. The tourney is a crap shoot and that is why it is awesome. But there is one guarantee with the tourney, like poker, you need a chip and a chair to have a shot to win. And those 10 win seasons give us the opportunity to do something in March.
I'm with wiscoave on this one. Yes, it's fully understood that getting the darts on the board is a good thing .. eventually, you'll hit some 18s, 19s, and 20s.
Those 10+ win seasons sure are swell, but always a bridesmaid never a bride = little to brag about.
(Caveat .. just getting to the NCAAs this year would be a huge accomplishment.)
Quote from: mu_hilltopper on February 15, 2010, 02:23:12 PM
I'm with wiscoave on this one. Yes, it's fully understood that getting the darts on the board is a good thing .. eventually, you'll hit some 18s, 19s, and 20s.
Those 10+ win seasons sure are swell, but always a bridesmaid never a bride = little to brag about.
(Caveat .. just getting to the NCAAs this year would be a huge accomplishment.)
You're throwing out double standards with that last sentence there. We're all disappointed by the lack of March success over the last 4 (or 7) years. But if it's not ok to be happy about regular season success in the last 4 years, why is it "a huge accomplishment" this year?
Quote from: mu_hilltopper on February 15, 2010, 02:23:12 PM
Those 10+ win seasons sure are swell, but always a bridesmaid never a bride = little to brag about.
Tell that to USF, DePaul and Cincinnati, though. After the move to the Big East (where we were supposed to get eaten alive) I would never have believed it if I were told back then that we would not only be surviving, but thriving.
I realize that we have our target set on championship, but it's certainly nice to have a solid base to launch that championship season from. I can't help but think how easily we could have ended up in the same spot at Cincinnati (Huggins and Crean leaving) trying to battle back into our winning ways instead of trying to figure out how to kick it up that one last notch to become one of the top 4 teams in the nation again :)
Quote from: TJ on February 15, 2010, 02:39:05 PM
You're throwing out double standards with that last sentence there. We're all disappointed by the lack of March success over the last 4 (or 7) years. But if it's not ok to be happy about regular season success in the last 4 years, why is it "a huge accomplishment" this year?
One word: Expectations. And I didn't say "it's not ok to be happy about regular season success". Sometimes, you are so ugly, it's a blessing just to get to be a bridesmaid! ;)
Quote from: Skatastrophy on February 15, 2010, 02:43:57 PM
Tell that to USF, DePaul and Cincinnati, though.
I realize that we have our target set on championship..
Gosh, I change my answer. Let's put up a banner for each 10+ win seasons .. if just to make USF and DePaul jealous.
In honesty, my target is not set on a NC. I guess I don't dream big. My current target is a Sweet 16 in the next 3 years.
Looking at the BE Tourney, it really is insane. The double bye is a huge advantage. First round teams potentially five games in five nights. That is nuts.
Quote from: 79Warrior on February 17, 2010, 10:15:28 AM
Looking at the BE Tourney, it really is insane. The double bye is a huge advantage. First round teams potentially five games in five nights. That is nuts.
Well...the bottom 8 teams should play better during the year then.