Predictions on the rest of the seasonWritten by: noreply@blogger.com (Rob Lowe)We'll use this entry to follow-up on John Pudner's post from a few days ago where he looked at the Providence game and Marquette down the stretch (http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2010/02/mus-3-point-shooting-overcomes-57-2.html). As he pointed out, Ken Pomeroy predicts that we'll finish 11-7 down the stretch (20-10 overall) (http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Marquette). This could possibly leave Marquette finishing as high as 4th in the BIG EAST this year.
However, I wanted to run the predictions through my own model and, if nothing else, put up some sensitivities on the likelihood of finishing in-line with that Pomeroy assessment.
First, how do our predictions (as of today's team) compare to Pomeroy's?
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Xpuy4viivhI/S3RXMjijDBI/AAAAAAAAAn8/zIPYWo70sbk/s400/Last+Seven+Games.png)
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Xpuy4viivhI/S3RXMjijDBI/AAAAAAAAAn8/zIPYWo70sbk/s1600-h/Last+Seven+Games.png)
We highlighted in green (favorable) and red (unfavorable) where there are disconnects between Pomeroy's predictions and our predictions. For one, our model views life on the road as being a little bit trickier than Pomeroy does. Where he has Marquette as a favorite on the road at UC, SJU, and SHU, we have the good guys as underdogs against Cincy and Seton Hall, and then just about a toss up on the road at St. Johns. We also have Marquette as a stronger favorite against Pitt than he does, and the rest of the predictions are pretty close.
Given that we are a bit more bearish than Pomeroy, what does the analysis give for sensitivity of the final W-L record?
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Xpuy4viivhI/S3RX9PGAeVI/AAAAAAAAAoE/P9ZZ58UoPLU/s320/Last+seven+games+-+MC.png)
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Xpuy4viivhI/S3RX9PGAeVI/AAAAAAAAAoE/P9ZZ58UoPLU/s1600-h/Last+seven+games+-+MC.png)
We're calculating a most likely view of 10 wins in conference, meaning that Marquette's most likely scenario is to finish 4-3 in the final seven regular season games. But here's your additional dose of optimism for these scenarios.
- MU has a 90% chance to finish at 0.500 in conference or better (going 3-4 down the stretch)
- There is a 67% chance to finish with ten wins or more (4-3)
- There's a 35% chance to finish with eleven wins or more (5-2)
If you had told me (anybody?) before the start of the season there was a 90% chance of finishing 0.500 or better, I'd have laughed in your face. Now is a final conference record of 10-8 (overall 19-11) good enough for a trip to the NCAA tournament? Maybe, and maybe not, but it is close enough that a win or two in the BET would get us there.
Buckle up down the stretch and get ready for the final run of the season. We'll have more on South Florida and that 84% chance of victory tomorrow.
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2010/02/predictions-on-rest-of-season.html