I noted on www.crackedsidewalks.com that Pomeroy (www.kenpom.com) had for the first time moved MU up to a No. 4 finish (double-bye) last week based on their predictions of an 11-7 finish.
Now Real-Time RPI, which was predicting a 9-9 finish, predicts that MU will miss 4th place by only one point, losing 75-74 at home to Louisville to finish one game out of 4th place at 12-6.
This is the result of Real-Time RPI now predicting that MU will win it's other 6 games - however with no margin for error. They pick MU as only a 2 to 6 point favorite in each.
No margin for error, but if these predictions hold, it picks MU to finish 50 in the RPI, and the Big East to finish:
Double-bye
Syracuse 16-2
West VA 15-3
Nova 13-5
Georgetown 13-5
Bye
Marquette 12-6 (MU takes 5th on 66-64 win over Pitt Feb. 18)Pittsburgh 12-6
Louisville 11-7 (assumes 69-70 home loss to Gtown Feb. 23)
S. Florida 10-8
Seton Hall 9-9 (predicts beating ND 77-75 on Feb.11 for tiebreaker)
Notre Dame 9-9
MU vs. Providence/Uconn winner in BE 2nd round, then getting either Gtown or Nova in semi.
Definetly wouldn't mind getting revenge on nova from this years close losses, and who could forget last years at the garden
It's interesting that Realtime RPI says this because the other RPI programs don't. I'm wondering what is different from their formula.
Every RPI site I go to has MU at 59 or 60 right now. Not all of them do a prediction, but those that do are not saying 50 for a finish.
Warren Nolan RPI predicts us to finish at 69 with a 18-12 record
RPIForecast has us finishing with a 56
A few others have us in the 60's
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on February 07, 2010, 10:49:12 PM
Warren Nolan RPI predicts us to finish at 69 with a 18-12 record
18-12? Wow.
I think most of us would be very disappointed, and reasonably so, if this team drops four of its next seven
12-6 has to be a tourny lock.
There must be lots of RPI ratings out there. A number of posters say they have us in the 50-60 range.
Pomeroy has us at 18 and Sagarin/USA has us at 31. I like those because they give us a higher rating than the others being mentioned. I do not know which rating is the "best".
Its looking like the RPI ratings Are like opinions--almost everybody has one.
Although my understanding is that the selection committee uses THE RPI, which has us @ 60ish. All slightly different formulae. I wish I knew how much the committee relies on it.
Quote from: willie warrior on February 08, 2010, 06:30:06 AM
Its looking like the RPI ratings Are like opinions--almost everybody has one.
It looks like currrent RPIs are all pretty close since they should follow the same calculation. But you're right, these "forward RPIs" seem to be nothing more than opinions or at best customized calculations, and are going to vary substantially when one predicts us to go 6-1 the rest of the way and another predicts 3-4.
Just win, baby! Five more W's and we're in. 4 more, we have a shot.
I'm not necessarily predicting it, but A 4th place finish actually looks like a realistic possibility. I find the ability to say that nothing short of amazing.
Quote from: radome on February 08, 2010, 07:22:07 AM
Although my understanding is that the selection committee uses THE RPI, which has us @ 60ish. All slightly different formulae. I wish I knew how much the committee relies on it.
The selection committee uses the official NCAA calculation of RPI, which can be found at NCAA.com (updated every Monday).
From reading participants' recollection of the media mock committee process from the past two years (Google: Mock Selection Committee Media, or a combination of those terms), my understanding is that RPI is used predominantly during the first two ballots to determine who is absolutely in, who is on the bubble, and who else may deserve consideration. After those three lists are generated, RPI yields its role to overall resume. While RPI is still used as a metric, overall record, conference record, signature wins, bad losses, records vs top 50 and top 100 RPI, significant injuries, conference tourney performance, etc. all carry just as much weight once the teams to consider are determined.
Many participants have said something along the lines of "your opponents' RPI is more of a consideration than your RPI."
So look at it this way... RPI is like getting your foot in the door for an interview with the committee, but your season resume is what's going to get you the job (or an internship with the NIT).