Notice no greens for us but a lot of black squares.
But it's good to be in the discussion
http://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2010/nitty
Nolan has MU as one of the last 4 teams in
http://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2010/projection/
Playing Butler in the first round
good stuff. Be nice if Providence could move up two spots from #102 to get those two wins into the 51-100 category. Also Cincy at #51, so if we can beat them and they move up a spot by the end, that would get us up to 3-6 vs. Top 50.
Positives I see are:
win over Gtown #8, and they could go higher - teams that are in top 65 or so often get in if they have a win over Top 10, and the world does seem to all know we barely lost to a bunch of top teams, which could be a subjective tiebreaker
I thought NCAA had gone to Last 12 games, is that wrong? Even with an opening round loss in BE tourney, Last 12 would mean we had at least 4 wins with 7 to play, but if they only do Top 10 then we are down to only 2 wins in teh bank.
He has the Big East getting 7 in.
Villanova
Georgetown
Syracuse
Marquette
Cincinnati
West Virginia
Pittsburgh
Beating Cincinnati and Pitt would help our cause.
If we go 5-2 down the stretch we're in, the RPI be damned. 20 wins overall and 10 BE wins punch our ticket.
Quote from: ecompt on February 07, 2010, 08:58:44 AM
If we go 5-2 down the stretch we're in, the RPI be damned. 20 wins overall and 10 BE wins punch our ticket.
i agree that 5 and 2 down the stretch puts us in a prime position...but lets not forget the BET. I think a win there cements a spot...a win vs the top half in the third round help seeding.
i would love to see a syracuse type of a run when GERRY Macnamara put them from bubble to a very decent seed
EDIT: Had the wrong first name!
Is Bobby a nickname for Gerry? :)
Quote from: reinko on February 07, 2010, 10:12:40 AM
Is Bobby a nickname for Gerry? :)
YES! I was thinking i put the wrong name down
Quote from: robmufan on February 07, 2010, 10:08:18 AM
i agree that 5 and 2 down the stretch puts us in a prime position...but lets not forget the BET. I think a win there cements a spot...a win vs the top half in the third round help seeding.
i would love to see a syracuse type of a run when GERRY Macnamara put them from bubble to a very decent seed
EDIT: Had the wrong first name!
The only problem with this logic is that if MU goes 5-2 they will be in the top half, so a win in the 3rd round wouldnt be that big of an upset right? Anyway a good problem to have
I just realized Im far too lazy to look this up and dont remember the format with all BE teams in the conf tourney- if someone cares to help that would be great
The RPI is a joke, and this Nitty Gritty Report is a joke. When I see teams like Dayton and San Diego State ranked in the mid-30s, and look at their "body of work," measured against MU at 60 in the RPI, it tells me all I need to know about the validity of RPI ratings. Ken Pomeroy's data is much more sound from a statistical anyalsis point of view. To classify wins/losses in broad stroke categories 1-50, 50-100, 100-200 like this Nitty Gritty report and RPI do, is to completely discount where within each of these categories the win/loss occurred. You can't tell me losing to WVU, and Villanova (teams ranked in RPI top 5) - by a combined 5 points, for 3 losses - counts the same as losing to a Team Ranked 48 by 10 points. Pomeroy takes these factors into consideration, the RPI not so much. Furthermore, when Xavier shows up at 28 RPI...please.
Quote from: Ners on February 07, 2010, 11:41:52 AM
The RPI is a joke, and this Nitty Gritty Report is a joke. When I see teams like Dayton and San Diego State ranked in the mid-30s, and look at their "body of work," measured against MU at 60 in the RPI, it tells me all I need to know about the validity of RPI ratings. Ken Pomeroy's data is much more sound from a statistical anyalsis point of view. To classify wins/losses in broad stroke categories 1-50, 50-100, 100-200 like this Nitty Gritty report and RPI do, is to completely discount where within each of these categories the win/loss occurred. You can't tell me losing to WVU, and Villanova (teams ranked in RPI top 5) - by a combined 5 points, for 3 losses - counts the same as losing to a Team Ranked 48 by 10 points. Pomeroy takes these factors into consideration, the RPI not so much. Furthermore, when Xavier shows up at 28 RPI...please.
Ners, I like the Pomeroy reporting better as well. The trouble is, the NCAA uses the RPI and not the Pomeroy.
So joke or not, that's what they use (along with many other factors).
And you're incorrect, the RPI does factor where the games are played.
Here is a different one for you
http://www.baselinestats.com/rpi/
Quote from: Ners on February 07, 2010, 11:41:52 AM
The RPI is a joke, and this Nitty Gritty Report is a joke. When I see teams like Dayton and San Diego State ranked in the mid-30s, and look at their "body of work," measured against MU at 60 in the RPI, it tells me all I need to know about the validity of RPI ratings. Ken Pomeroy's data is much more sound from a statistical anyalsis point of view. To classify wins/losses in broad stroke categories 1-50, 50-100, 100-200 like this Nitty Gritty report and RPI do, is to completely discount where within each of these categories the win/loss occurred. You can't tell me losing to WVU, and Villanova (teams ranked in RPI top 5) - by a combined 5 points, for 3 losses - counts the same as losing to a Team Ranked 48 by 10 points. Pomeroy takes these factors into consideration, the RPI not so much. Furthermore, when Xavier shows up at 28 RPI...please.
Perhaps, but it seems fairly clear that the selection committee uses the RPI and not Pomeroy's rankings. I wish they used his rankings
In the end, what it boils down to is that Marquette has one signature win- at home against G'Town. Still no big away victories (esp now that UConn is likely not in the field), and a glaring bad defeat to DePaul.
One would hope that all those close losses to potentially number 1-3 seeds Nova, Cuse, WVU factor in on the members of the committee (they are human afterall) when it comes down to the "eye test," but I have seen all too many times that it ends up being a numbers game and that scares me
Teams in the 60s in the RPI dont get in too often, but teams with 11 wins in the BE that are in the 60s would likely get in. If MU takes care of business they don't need to worry- If not and they finish with 10 or 9 wins then one would hope the "eye test" is wide open on selection sunday
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on February 07, 2010, 11:45:40 AM
Ners, I like the Pomeroy reporting better as well. The trouble is, the NCAA uses the RPI and not the Pomeroy.
So joke or not, that's what they use (along with many other factors).
And you're incorrect, the RPI does factor where the games are played.
Agreed that the NCAA doesn't use the Pomeroy. Can you clarify your point about the RPI does factor where the games are played? Are you speaking in terms of home or away? Or in terms of where the team is ranked within the RPI? I wasn't calling the RPI out for making distinction between home or away, but rather that it make a distinction between "where" the loss occurs within the Top 50, with respect to opposition RPI rating.