Since we still play two teams just ahead of us and one team tied for us, it looks like we can really control our own destiny better than the other teams:
BUBBLE TEAMS WITH PERCENT CHANCE OF MAKING TOURNEY
LAST FOUR IN
ODU 55%
Maryland 55%
Cincy 50%
UConn 50%
FIRST FOUR OUT
Wichita State 50%
Louisville 45%
MARQUETTE 40%
Seton Hall 40%
NEXT FOUR OUT
Florida 50%
Illini 45%
UVa 40%
UNC 35%
He has us as one of the first four out as of today, but basically his database of past teams says that by the end of the year Florida has a slightly better chance than us, etc.
He also writes: "The current at-large cut line is exclusively a Big East party. The last two teams in the field (Cincy, UConn) as well as the first three teams out (Louisville, Seton Hall, Marquette) all hail from the same league. This could never happen on Selection Sunday, as a conference tournament would provide the necessary "elimination games" to sort out the proper order of such teams."
He notes again how the Gtown win could put MU in, as teams with one big win tend to leapfrog others if it's close. He also lists us with all the teams with bad road records, but throws in a nice, "Meanwhile, Marquette might have a better excuse for its road record. The Golden Eagles' conference games thus far have included trips to West Virginia, Villanova and Syracuse. Of course, there's little excuse for giving DePaul its first regular-season Big East victory since March 6, 2008."
This was written/calculated before USF's win at Gtown, so we could have 6 Big East teams squarely on the bubble.
It blows my mind that Wichita State is being considered for anything. They have one good win in Northern Iowa. They lost to Pitt on a neutral court. Just puzzles me that so many sites have them in or as a first four out team.
what is stupid is he has team with a better chance of making in being "next foru out" as opposed to "next four in" if the y have a better chance then they should be shuffled accordingly!
Quote from: MR.HAYWARD on February 04, 2010, 11:36:56 AM
what is stupid is he has team with a better chance of making in being "next foru out" as opposed to "next four in" if the y have a better chance then they should be shuffled accordingly!
What is stupid here is your uninformed post.
Lunardi's brackets are based upon reume to date, no prediction going forward.
The % odds to make the tourney use predictions, so it should be expected that they are not in the same order.
Quote from: Tmreddevil on February 04, 2010, 01:06:44 PM
What is stupid here is your uninformed post.
Lunardi's brackets are based upon reume to date, no prediction going forward.
The % odds to make the tourney use predictions, so it should be expected that they are not in the same order.
"reume" ? - english please
Quote from: MR.HAYWARD on February 04, 2010, 01:17:10 PM
"reume" ? - english please
Grammar police? Really Hayward?!
Quote from: MR.HAYWARD on February 04, 2010, 01:17:10 PM
"reume" ? - english please
Said the guy who misspelled "four" earlier in the thread.
I don't see how Northern Iowa projects as a 6 seed. Because they beat Siena? Everyone talks about our loss to DePaul but no one seems to mind that they lost DePaul (on a neutral site no less) and they haven't played a ranked opponent all year.
theres definitely a bit of a bias for mid majors nonconference games against BCS schools. for a lot of non-BCS schools, any win against a major conference school is considered a big quality win, while a) in conference teams play those same school 2x/week and b) when BCS schools play other BCS schools out of conference, the outcome is weighed differently, namely via the transitive property. There seems to be a lot of Marquette lost to NC St, who lost to X, so.... Its just how a lot of people do their best to compare conference strength. When youre talking mid majors, the conferences usually aren't very good, so the impetus to do that goes away.
Then again, that's not all necessarily bad, or we wouldn't have as many mid majors in the tournament.