and UCONN dropping it's 3rd in a row, it seems to me that we could find ourselves getting some Bracketology love next Monday.
+1
Let's not count our chickens before they hatch (see first DePaul game). DePaul should definitely give us a run for our money on Wednesday considering Koshwal is playing and the rest of the team is basically at full strength.
If MU wants to go to the tournament, winning the next 4 is a must.
Quote from: MUCrew on February 02, 2010, 08:53:04 AM
Let's not count our chickens before they hatch (see first DePaul game). DePaul should definitely give us a run for our money on Wednesday considering Koshwal is playing and the rest of the team is basically at full strength.
I said "with two wins" implying "if" not "when".
If you scan the 10-12 seeds (bubble teams) on Joe Lunardi's recent bracket, I might go so far to say that MU could beat all of them. Unfortunately, our resume isn't all that great right now, but it is getting better.
My feeling about MU's tourney hopes is like this... scoring a 34 on your ACT but carrying a HS GPA of 2.50 and trying to get into your top choice school. Based on the former, the latter should be much higher, but at the end of the day, GPA is what counts and what will be weighted the most.
Fortunately, MU has a few "semesters" left to get their "grades" up.
Quote from: ATWizJr on February 02, 2010, 09:02:01 AM
I said "with two wins" implying "if" not "when".
My mistake for thinking the latter. Hope the team doesn't make the same mistake.
Quote from: NavinRJohnson on February 02, 2010, 08:55:48 AM
If MU wants to go to the tournament, winning the next 4 is a must.
don;t think it's a "must". if MU wantes to lock up a bid in the regular season, then i think they need to go 7-2 down the stretch. however they want to do that is fine with me. even if they lose to depaul and south florida at home, that means they are winning 4 games on the road (giving them a 7-6 road/neutral record on the season) and beating pitt, ville and ND at home (which would probably give them 5-6 wins aginst top 50 rpi teams). I do think winning the next 4 makes the road a lot easier.
Quote from: dwaderoy2004 on February 02, 2010, 09:55:41 AM
don;t think it's a "must". if MU wantes to lock up a bid in the regular season, then i think they need to go 7-2 down the stretch. however they want to do that is fine with me. even if they lose to depaul and south florida at home, that means they are winning 4 games on the road (giving them a 7-6 road/neutral record on the season) and beating pitt, ville and ND at home (which would probably give them 5-6 wins aginst top 50 rpi teams). I do think winning the next 4 makes the road a lot easier.
I'm not even sure winning the next 4 is key; just getting the next 3 would put this team at 16-8, 7-5 going into the final 6 games. At that point, a 4-2 finish like this would probably do:
Split Pitt/Louisville at Home
Split Cincy/Seton Hall on the Road
Win at St. John's
Beat Notre Dame at home
Quote from: dwaderoy2004 on February 02, 2010, 09:55:41 AM
don;t think it's a "must". if MU wantes to lock up a bid in the regular season, then i think they need to go 7-2 down the stretch. however they want to do that is fine with me. even if they lose to depaul and south florida at home, that means they are winning 4 games on the road (giving them a 7-6 road/neutral record on the season) and beating pitt, ville and ND at home (which would probably give them 5-6 wins aginst top 50 rpi teams). I do think winning the next 4 makes the road a lot easier.
Maybe we as a collective fanbase overreacted a tad to the DePaul loss, but with their RPI, there is NO way MU loses to DePaul twice and still gets an at-large bid this year.
Who gives a rat's ass about bracketology love on February 8th?
I want bracketology love on Selection Sunday.
Lotta basketball between then and now.
Quote from: TJ on February 02, 2010, 10:17:50 AM
Maybe we as a collective fanbase overreacted a tad to the DePaul loss, but with their RPI, there is NO way MU loses to DePaul twice and still gets a bid this year.
MU can lose to DePaul tomorrow and still get a bid very easily -- win the BE tourney.
Heck, as long as the Warriors win the BE tourney, they can lose the next nine games for all I care. I'd love a chance to be the fifth team ever to knock off a 2 seed in the opening round.
(Sorry, couldn't help myself.)
Quote from: Benny B on February 02, 2010, 10:38:47 AM
MU can lose to DePaul tomorrow and still get a bid very easily -- win the BE tourney.
Heck, as long as the Warriors win the BE tourney, they can lose the next nine games for all I care. I'd love a chance to be the fifth team ever to knock off a 2 seed in the opening round.
(Sorry, couldn't help myself.)
Thanks, I fixed my post for you. ;D
Quote from: TJ on February 02, 2010, 10:17:50 AM
Maybe we as a collective fanbase overreacted a tad to the DePaul loss, but with their RPI, there is NO way MU loses to DePaul twice and still gets an at-large bid this year.
I just absolutely disagree with that. As I stated, we would be 7-6 in road/neutral games, be 9-3 in our last 12, have quality wins (wins over top 50 in rpi) over Xavier, G-town, Pitt, UConn, cincy and Louisville, be 11-7 in the big east and finish with 20 overall wins. That resume would get us in, bad losses or not.
all that being said, i don;t think there is any way we lose to depaul tomorrow
Quote from: dwaderoy2004 on February 02, 2010, 10:56:13 AM
I just absolutely disagree with that. As I stated, we would be 7-6 in road/neutral games, be 9-3 in our last 12, have quality wins (wins over top 50 in rpi) over Xavier, G-town, Pitt, UConn, cincy and Louisville, be 11-7 in the big east and finish with 20 overall wins. That resume would get us in, bad losses or not.
all that being said, i don;t think there is any way we lose to depaul tomorrow
From what I can tell, we're projected to do about what you said, but beating DePaul and losing to someone else. This is projected to give us an RPI of around 60 with a SOS around 45. I think losing to DePaul would hurt the RPI more than the extra win would help, given their projected RPI of 175.
So, with an RPI around 60, SOS around 45, a couple good wins, & 2 BAD losses. Doesn't seem like a lock.
Yeah, my position is based on a very specific scenario. I do think though that a loss to depaul would not completely eliminate us from the tourney, as you said. a lot of people said our last loss to depaul eliminated us from the tourney...than we beat uconn. There's still too much basketball left to put absolutes on things. I think a 7-2 record in any combination would get us safely in the tourney, and we could definitely do less and still make it based on our performance in the BEAST tourney and how the bubble shapes up. lots of factors.
I think we need to beat the other teams in the Big East that are on the bubble to have a much better chance at being asked to the dance. IMO beating Cincinnati and Louisville will help our chances dramatically given that they are both bubble teams as well, lets knock them off the bubble and out of the tourney. If we beat them and have similar records it will be hard for the committee to not pick Marquette if we have beaten Cincy and Ville.
Quote from: notkirkcameron on February 02, 2010, 10:21:00 AM
Who gives a rat's ass about bracketology love on February 8th?
I want bracketology love on Selection Sunday.
Lotta basketball between then and now.
The recognition from Lundardi is good. Trend is good. Getting mentioned as being off the bubble is good. In short, it's all good!!