Where do you think we sit now with NCAA tourney chances? Thoughts?
When we get to 10 wins in conference, I will start wondering about the bubble.
Quote from: tower912 on January 30, 2010, 01:31:01 PM
When we get to 10 wins in conference, I will start wondering about the bubble.
Tough to not let us in if it started tomorrow, but Tower's right. Let's get 10 conference wins
There is no reason we cannot get 6th seed in the big east. Every game from here on out is winnable. Pitt at home will be the final quality win we need to get in if we take care of the teams that we should beat.
Final four
Quote from: tower912 on January 30, 2010, 01:31:01 PM
When we get to 10 wins in conference, I will start wondering about the bubble.
Agree, 10 is the definite number.
Our projected RPI has been around 65 lately -- but that was assuming a UConn loss.
With the win .. A ROAD WIN .. I assume the new projection will be bumped 5-8 slots. The projections assume we win the remainder of all games. (tough, but the way it figures, we're favored in all of them.)
Comes down to the BET, who we play and beat. (And if DePaul could pull a miracle and hang on today .. they are the biggest anchor on our RPI .. )
Quote from: tower912 on January 30, 2010, 01:31:01 PM
When we get to 10 wins in conference, I will start wondering about the bubble.
True, but this is the quality road win we needed for the resume.
For debates sake: If we get to 10 wins with quality wins over Xavier, G'town, @UConn, and Pitt(?) - we're in, right?
I figure if we win our home games (no easy task) and go 2-2 in our last four BE road games, that gives us 20 wins. No way do we get left out with 20 wins.
Let's have this conversation on Feb. 13.
The next three we SHOULD win (Dep @ home 2/3, @Prov 2/6, USF @ home 2/13). We do this and have a 7 and 5 BE record, then we can talk.
Quote from: AnotherMU84 on January 30, 2010, 02:03:14 PM
Let's have this conversation on Feb. 13.
The next three we SHOULD win (Dep @ home 2/3, @Prov 2/6, USF @ home 2/13). We do this and have a 7 and 5 BE record, then we can talk.
That Providence game is a real toss-up for me.......they're tough at the Dunkin Donuts Center and they'll be looking for some major revenge against us. I could easily see that being a loss, however, if we get that win I think we can get to 11 wins not counting the BE tourney. We're definately in the tourney with 11 wins and prolly 10 as well. If we finish .500 we'll need a run in the BE tourney to get in.
Quote from: Doris Burkes Thong on January 30, 2010, 02:11:03 PM
That Providence game is a real toss-up for me.......they're tough at the Dunkin Donuts Center and they'll be looking for some major revenge against us. I could easily see that being a loss, however, if we get that win I think we can get to 11 wins not counting the BE tourney. We're definately in the tourney with 11 wins and prolly 10 as well. If we finish .500 we'll need a run in the BE tourney to get in.
I agree - let's wait until the 13th. DePaul and Preovidence will nto be easy - heck, none are easy really. We need the next three very badly - but, one at a time. DePaul is looking very very good against Syracuse.
Hopefully Providence won't have any of its fans interrupting free throws this time.
Quote from: Doris Burkes Thong on January 30, 2010, 01:29:48 PM
Where do you think we sit now with NCAA tourney chances? Thoughts?
Nope, not yet....DePaul game really sucks balls right now
Quote from: AnotherMU84 on January 30, 2010, 02:03:14 PM
The next three we SHOULD win (Dep @ home 2/3, @Prov 2/6, USF @ home 2/13). We do this and have a 7 and 5 BE record, then we can talk.
I really think we will lose the the Providence game. I do not have a good feeling about that one. However, if we could win 2 of these 3 road games: Cincy, St. John's, Seton Hall... we will be sitting pretty. That assumes we also win 3 of four of the home games (Pitt, USF, Notre Dame, Louisville). With a win against DePaul, that is still 10 wins.
Then you MUST have at least one Big East tourney win. Then we have a shot. It is a lot to ask but this team certainly has the heart.
To be a bubble team (but probably good side of it) at 10-8 it's win 4 out of 5 at home and split the remaining four road games. The bottom line is that an NCAA tournament team does not belong losing two of our remaining five home games or three of four road games against average or below average opponents. A team that is an NCAA lock would be able to care care of business at home and split the road games, or drop one at home but win three of those road games to finish 11-7.
We need to split Pitt and Louisville, take 2/3 at Cincy, at St Johns, and at SH, and then win the rest. That would put us at 11 wins. We have a one game cushion to get to that consensus 10 wins and we are in. 10 or 11 is pretty realistic, especially since we have hopefully gotten our bad conference game out of our system at DePaul.
The Pac Ten being down helps a middle of the pack Big East team a lot this year.
If we get in, I sure would not want to play Marquette as a 12 seed though. MU is beatable, but will take advantage of your mistakes. If you miss a 3 footer inside, MU can outlet the ball and put a 3 pointer on the board causing a 5 point swing, and the difference in the game in the blink of an eye. MU can't really stop anyone good, but no 5 seed will be able to stop MU either if we keep this shooting up. This UConn win gives the players confidence down the stretch too.
We are playing like a 7 or 8 seed - our record is not indicative of our play. Buzz and company have this team believing in themselves.
considering how terrible the PAC 10 is (plus USC is ineligible) and how average the Big 10 and SEC are, I think the BE will get 9 teams in the tourney.
MU should be among those 9 if they continue to play the way they played today.
Another way to improve our resume would be to beat Villanova at the Garden. The pundits would love that story line. "8-2/7-3 in their last 10 and then aftering coming up just short in January against a top 10 team, Marquette beats Villanova in the BE tourney."
A good story line to put us in. I'd love to get another crack at Nova. Maybe having an extra guard will help that game so that the guys have fresher legs at the end of the game on defense.
I see us winning 10 games in BE and finishing in the Top 6
9 wins & 2 in the BE Tourney = IN
9 Big East teams is realistic. Nova and Cuse are in competition for 1 seeds, WVU, Pitt, and G-town are in. That leaves four spots for MU, UConn, ND, Cincy, Louisville. I don't see any of the other BE teams in. So we better beat ND, Cincy, and Louisville to solidfy our spot.
Pitt is going down!
Quote from: mviale on January 30, 2010, 07:22:37 PM
Pitt is going down!
Amen. Let's hope the players don't look past these next three very, very winnable games and start thinking Pitt. The DePaul loss should focus the team for the rest of the way. D Jones from USF is going to be tough.
Pitt is going down.
I hope the predictions of 9 teams is right, but it's hard for me to see more than 8. Lots of golf left.
10 wins and 2 in the Big East Tourney put us in. Regarding how we can get there.....I have no idea. The way our team is built, I don't think any games are gimmes (see Depaul last week, and now they have Koshwal back). One game at a time, but today's win goes a long ways to getting there. Great Win and thankyou DJO/Jimmy!
Quote from: romey on January 30, 2010, 01:32:45 PM
Tough to not let us in if it started tomorrow, but Tower's right. Let's get 10 conference wins
Just to the left of your post are the BEast standings, showing MU tied for 11th. If it started tomorrow, I'm not sure we'd be in. The schedule is such that we should make a run and put us into play for a bid, but let's not count our chickens (or golden eagles) before they hatch.
EDIT: I see now that the standings have not been updated. We are tied for 9th. My thoughts still stand.
i said before these last two that we needed a road win at UConn or Cincy and 9 more total wins - whether in regular season or Big East Tourney to be a lock for the tourney. We've got the big road win, and I stick to what I said. Seven more wins gets us to 20 and we are definitely in. If we win 7 of these last 9 we aren't even on the bubble, we are in. If we win 6 of the last 9, then I think we need a Big East tourney win to get to the 20-win season and not be sweating it on Selection Sunday.
We will be a few spots off in RPI, but the other factors are too strong in our favor. Basically we'd probably be battling Louisville for 6th or 7th place if we win either 6 or 7 of these last nine, and 6th or 7th place in the Conference with the highest RPI will get us in I believe. But if we did go 6-3 down the stretch and finish 7th, then I do think we need to beat the 10th seed in the opening round of the BE tourney to be a lock.
Remember at 7-2, even with an opening round loss we also get the benefit of the 9-3 mark in the "last 12 games," while at 6-3 with just 1 Big East tourney win we get an 8-4 in last 12.
In summary, win 7 more and we are in, 6 more and we sweat it out Selection Sunday.
Pretty good analysis IMHO Bama. Here are my W-L scenario's to make the dance.
7-2 or better in remaining 9 regular-season - In
6-3 in remaining 9 - Need to win BET tourney opener also to be secure
5-4 in remaining 9 - Need to make BET tourney semi's to make it
4-5 in remaining 9 - NIT unless win BET tourney
I don't think the ACC is all that great at the top end this year either, I'd put them closer to the B10, P10 and SEC in terms of where that league is at this year vs. the BE. I'd say the BE and the B12 are pretty clearly the top two leagues this year, particularly at the top end, which also should help MU's chances. Only bad part about that argument is if MU comes up head-to-head with the FSU and NC State losses.
Minor add-on: That NC State loss officially become a bad loss today, as their RPI dropped from 96 to 107, as they played RPI 344 NC Central. I would imagine if they don't tank down the stretch the remainder of their ACC schedule will take care of that, but just saying as of now ...