Print Page - Pomeroy says we lose one more game all year long

Title: Pomeroy says we lose one more game all year long
Post by: ChicosBailBonds on January 18, 2010, 04:34:05 PM

http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Marquette

Projects us to finish in 6th place. http://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=BE

He now has us as the 2nd most unlucky team in the nation

Title: Re: Pomeroy says we lose one more game all year long
Post by: YoungMUFan4 on January 18, 2010, 04:38:27 PM

actually he says we lose 4 more prior to the BE tournament

While he does predicts each game individually he also uses statistical probabilities when he predicts the season record.

Example a team could be a 51% favorite to win 4 games so each individual game is a predicted win but in reality you would expect those games to be split 2-2.

Title: Re: Pomeroy says we lose one more game all year long
Post by: WxWarrior on January 18, 2010, 04:41:13 PM

Also, for the first time this season pomeroy and RPI agree on our BE record... 11-7. I would be OK with that.

Title: Re: Pomeroy says we lose one more game all year long
Post by: rocky_warrior on January 18, 2010, 04:50:17 PM

Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on January 18, 2010, 04:34:05 PM
He now has us as the 2nd most unlucky team in the nation

If we end up at the #17 spot he's got us now, I'll take unlucky.

Edit: Also 3rd best team in the BE behind #5 cuse, #7 WVU, and ahead of #18 Gtown, #19 Villanova, #24 Pitt.

Title: Re: Pomeroy says we lose one more game all year long
Post by: Brewtown Andy on January 19, 2010, 04:50:33 PM

I love that the guy on our team listed as "nearly invisible" is top 10 in eFG%. :D

Title: Re: Pomeroy says we lose one more game all year long
Post by: Brewtown Andy on January 19, 2010, 05:25:10 PM

Also, it's worth pointing out that that "lose one more time" includes a 51% chance of winning at UConn, a 58% chance at Cincy, and a 59% chance at Seton Hall.

Given how unlucky we are statistically, that's where the other three losses are....

Title: Re: Pomeroy says we lose one more game all year long
Post by: Wareagle on January 19, 2010, 05:26:01 PM

Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on January 18, 2010, 04:34:05 PM
http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Marquette

Projects us to finish in 6th place. http://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=BE

He now has us as the 2nd most unlucky team in the nation

Sort of, but not exactly. He says that our odds of winning every remaining individual game is greater than 50% except the game at Syracuse. He projects us to win 9 and lose 4 the rest of the way. This put us at 20-10 for the year and 11-7 in the conference.

The difference between the numbers is that if you have a 66% chance of beating a team, you lose to them once every 3 times. Therefore, this game is expected to be worth .66 "wins" and .33 "losses," not simply one win. Therefore, the aggregation of all these odds for the remaining games means that MU is expected to lose 4 more games even though KenPom favors us in all but one.

MUScoop

MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: ChicosBailBonds on January 18, 2010, 04:34:05 PM