MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: NersEllenson on January 02, 2010, 05:24:17 PM
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Someone pointed out in a previous thread that by the law of averages/probabilities, these games would eventually start to even out. MU has a jinx right now, and it will become (if it isn't already) a mental/psycholgoical mind f_ck closing close games. No field goals in last 4:15 of this game. Played a great game again...80% from the line for the game, but just 50% in the last 2:30 minutes of the game. Reynolds makes a B.S., between the legs from the rear/split the defense dribble, gets fouled, hits the shot.
I think MU from this point forward is just going to have to MAUL shooters at the end of the game, and make these other teams win it from the free throw line - cause it sure seems WVU, FSU, NOVA this year, NOVA, GTOWN the year before, Stanford in the NCAA tourney...all hit last second shots.
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The law of probability would state that we are likely to split these tight games moving forward, not make up for recent bad luck by winning a bunch in a row. If you flip a coin and it is heads 8 times in a row, it's still 50/50 on the next flip.
Unless there is an underlying fundamental reason why we lose the close games, in which case we would be likely to continue to fare poorly.
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We usually lose close games defending a small lead on the final possession-----last year vs NOVA in the BE Tourney I believe it was Reynolds who broke down our defense and McNeal leaves his guy to help meanwhile his guy slides behind him and receives a pass for the layin---- a week ag vs WV Butler drives down the floor with Lazar defending stops at the 3 point line spins as Lazar falls backward off balance unable to defend the Butler's trey-------yesterday Reynolds breaks down our defense and DJO comes in late to help off balance and fouls Reynolds as he hits a short jump shot.
These are critical defensive breakdowns----and are a fundamental reason why we can't hold a lead on that final enemy possession.
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The law of probability would state that we are likely to split these tight games moving forward, not make up for recent bad luck by winning a bunch in a row. If you flip a coin and it is heads 8 times in a row, it's still 50/50 on the next flip.
Don't let Murf see this. He'll tell you that it is false. He falls for the "Gambler's Fallacy" everytime this discussion comes up.