While for the past few years, the non conference schedule has been deemed a mere formality, this years non conference schedule is shaping up to be a make or break campaign for this years team. On the bad side, games such as uwm, once thought of as push overs, could be potential season crushers. With such a young group of incoming players, these are games that can either help establish your team, or really hurt their confidence should the outcome be less then favorable. With a murderers row of big east games to start the season, going into the conference schedule potentially near the red could be very painful. Marquette will be the underdogs in four preseason games, and if you believe some analysts (which I don't) we will also be the under dog in the uwm game. This is a team that could very easily be on the fringe of 10 losses before January is over. On the good side, Marquette could also really build a tremendous amount of momentum going into the conference schedule. Xavier and michigan will not be as strong as they traditionally are (Michigan would be the projected opponet if we beat Xavier), the Madison game is always close, no matter what the talent or experience of each team is, and NC state, while in the acc, is not one of the elite teams in this conference. While it would be extremely wishful thinking to think we could come out 4-0 against non conference high major teams, they are all games that we at least have a chance at winning. NC state at home helps, madison away hurts, but if for some reason we could come out of this 4-0, if we were to drop our first 4 games in big east play, we would still be set up to make a legit tournament run.
I generally agree with your premise that if we kick butt in the non-conference season we should be o.k. On the other hand if we lose 4 or more games, it will very likely be a long season.
I also think that the non-conference portion of the schedule has the appropriate mix of cupcakes and some quality teams for such a young team as MU.
Quote from: downtown85 on October 30, 2009, 11:49:25 AM
I also think that the non-conference portion of the schedule has the appropriate mix of cupcakes and some quality teams for such a young team as MU.
+1
If they were all cupcakes, you might give the team a false sense of security heading into conference and vice versa.
MU has no business losing to UWM this year.
Personally, I don't think Ws and Ls in non-conf means as much this year...barring a total disaster. It's more important that we establish a solid rotation and get guys to accept roles. I could live with 2-3 losses as long as it leads to a stronger team in conference play. Our NC record will mean zero if we can finish 10-8 in the Big East. That should be enough to get us a bid. It's not like we'll be looking at our seed.
I think Michigan is going to be the best they've been in over a decade. I'd say they're going to be strong to quite strong.
I agree to the NC schedule is important is important for establishing rotation, I just think we need to win some of these bigger non conference games as insurance for the big east schedule. people are down on the big east a little this year, and going 10-8 wont be the automatic qualifier if was last year.
Quote from: KipsBayEagle on October 30, 2009, 12:21:20 PM
I agree to the NC schedule is important is important for establishing rotation, I just think we need to win some of these bigger non conference games as insurance for the big east schedule. people are down on the big east a little this year, and going 10-8 wont be the automatic qualifier if was last year.
Providence was 10-8 last year (with a shoddy 8-4 non-conference record) - they played in the NIT.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on October 30, 2009, 12:01:22 PM
MU has no business losing to UWM this year.
Might be true, but some early predictions (http://collegebasketball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=988936) have ranked them above us. Although 63 is a big jump from the low 100s they finished last year.
Quote from: dsfire on October 30, 2009, 12:44:00 PM
Might be true, but some early predictions (http://collegebasketball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=988936) have ranked them above us. Although 63 is a big jump from the low 100s they finished last year.
Everything on that list after the top 25-30 was throwing darts at a map.
Quote from: dsfire on October 30, 2009, 12:44:00 PM
Might be true, but some early predictions (http://collegebasketball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=988936) have ranked them above us. Although 63 is a big jump from the low 100s they finished last year.
MU should win, but its probably going to be a lot closer than the past two years.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on October 30, 2009, 12:01:22 PM
MU has no business losing to UWM this year.
Nor Western Michigan or North Dakota State.
Add in Tulsa also.
Quote from: KipsBayEagle on October 30, 2009, 11:40:11 AM
...should the outcome be less then favorable.
Similar to when Hirohito made a State Visit to the US and referred to WWII as, "a period of disagreement between our two nations..."
Quote from: 4everwarriors on October 30, 2009, 01:54:14 PM
Nor Western Michigan or North Dakota State.
Add in Tulsa also.
Bo Ryan, the greatest coach not named Wooden lost to North Dakota State at a site where they haven't lost since the alamo.
Tulsa...disagree. Their RPI and Pomeroy was in the low 30's, something UWM will never get to...they were a NCAA team on a neutral court....please do not compare losing to a NCAA team on a neutral court to even the prospect of losing to UWM on our home court. It should never happen.
Western Michigan...terrible loss, no matter how you cut it....no Diener and the team had clearly checked out. No excuses.
Quote from: LAZER on October 30, 2009, 12:20:12 PM
I think Michigan is going to be the best they've been in over a decade. I'd say they're going to be strong to quite strong.
Not only that, but that offense is tough to prepare for in a day.
I'd sign for 10-2 non-conference, 3-2 in the 5 games between Orlando, at the Rodents and NC State. That and 10-8 would be enough IMHO.
UWM is going to have their best team since Pearl was in town. They know this is their best chance to be the team that finally beats MU. Big trap game for a young MU team seeing that the UW game is that following Saturday.
Also, with Butler probably running through the Horizon, UWM is going to want to pile up some quality wins and try to build a some sort of resume. They play in pre-season NIT, @UW, a bracket-buster, and @MU. They will need that @MU win on their resume.
Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on October 30, 2009, 12:01:22 PM
MU has no business losing to UWM this year.
Hope you're right but Rivals has UWM rated 20 spots higher than MU. (63-83) Given that it's hard to envision us as a top heavy favorite in the game.
One thing I have learned from young teams is that they always lose a game or two they shouldn't. My guess is that it will happen both in the Non-Con schedule as well as a Big East game.
I agree the Non-Con schedule is important but we will proably lose a game in it that will cause a meltdown around here. I do believe however this team will be playing its best ball in March.
I suspect Buzz could lose to Centenary and Maryland-Eastern Shore and people would take that double blow better then losing to UWM.
If we consider ourselves a top half program in the Big East and Buzz is intent on having 13 high-major players on roster, even in our down seasons (like now) we shouldn't lose to the Panthers.
Quote from: The Golden Avalanche on November 03, 2009, 11:31:02 AM
I suspect Buzz could lose to Centenary and Maryland-Eastern Shore and people would take that double blow better then losing to UWM.
If we consider ourselves a top half program in the Big East and Buzz is intent on having 13 high-major players on roster, even in our down seasons (like now) we shouldn't lose to the Panthers.
+1
Quote from: The Golden Avalanche on November 03, 2009, 11:31:02 AM
I suspect Buzz could lose to Centenary and Maryland-Eastern Shore and people would take that double blow better then losing to UWM.
If we consider ourselves a top half program in the Big East and Buzz is intent on having 13 high-major players on roster, even in our down seasons (like now) we shouldn't lose to the Panthers.
Yeah, that makes sense. Wait, who has more NCAA wins since 2004?
Quote from: MU1984 on November 03, 2009, 09:20:10 AM
They play in pre-season NIT
Ironic, because a very successful season with that schedule could possibly land them in the post-season Not In Tournament as well! To be a bubble team for an NCAA at-large, they need to win 2-3 games in the PNIT (WKU, LSU, and UConn), win three out of five between MU, UW, bracket buster, and 2 vs. Butler, and don't drop more than 2 against the rest of the Horizon. More than likely they will lose right away against WKU, lose to us and to UW, and lose at least 5 Horizon games.
Quote from: chapman on November 03, 2009, 01:35:18 PM
Ironic, because a very successful season with that schedule could possibly land them in the post-season Not In Tournament as well!
I don't know if we MU fans should be throwing stones about the NIT this year. Great things on the horizon to be excited about, but realistic expectations for the Warriors this year is CBI or NIT.
Quote from: MU1984 on November 03, 2009, 01:43:39 PM
I don't know if we MU fans should be throwing stones about the NIT this year. Great things on the horizon to be excited about, but realistic expectations for the Warriors this year is CBI or NIT.
And my realistic expectation is that we NEVER lose to UWM.
Quote from: LancesOtherNut on November 03, 2009, 01:48:59 PM
And my realistic expectation is that we NEVER lose to UWM.
Hope you're right, but it will be a good game this year.
Quote from: MU1984 on November 03, 2009, 01:43:39 PM
I don't know if we MU fans should be throwing stones about the NIT this year. Great things on the horizon to be excited about, but realistic expectations for the Warriors this year is CBI or NIT.
And to be honest, we generally expect a pretty crappy year. The NIT always stinks. Whether your team play in it doesn't change that.