I haven't seen much this year on this forum by posters predicting the team's non-conference, conference, and post season results. Predictions this year are very difficult given all the unknowns surrounding the new players. However, as I put my blue and gold glasses on, here is my stab at it. Read my prediction then my justification below.
non-conf schedule: 9-3 (lose 2 games at Old Spice, beat Bucky, lose to NC State)
conf-schedule: 10-8 (start off weak with 2 losses to Nova but finish strong as team gels)
BE tourney: 1-1
NCAA: 0-1 Team will be a bubble team and get something like an 11 seed. Lose in 1st round.
I think that most of this board's expectations (and various experts' expectations) are somewhat lower than my predictions but I think the following factors will surprise to the upside:
1. Buzz's defensive philosophy/coaching. I think the way Buzz coaches defense is much more suited for a team with length than the short team we had this year. I liken this year's team to last year's WVU team which one a lot of games based on hard-nosed defense. As the team buys into this philosophy and executes it, we will see some upsets.
2. Erik Williams. Contrary to what Murf says, I do not think he will be soft by the end of the year. He is a high major talent and will start to play with a chip on his shoulder, especially at the defensive end of the floor where he seems to have knack for blocking shots. He will also provide some needed offense, especially his outside shot.
3. Buzz will put the best players on the floor regardless of size. This means that Otule, Cubes, and Mbao will still not be major contributors at the end of the year. However, Maymon, Williams, Buycks, and DJO will all be seeing major minutes the second half of conference season and tourney time. Hayward, Acker, and Butler will be the core around which the team is built. Fulce is still a question mark but, if healthy, he should also be a contributor. This would imply essentially an 8-man rotation.
4. The rotation above can generate 70 ppg offense as follows:
Hayward 16
Butler 10
Acker 5
Buycks 12
DJO 9
Maymon 7
Williams 6
Fulce 5
Well, there you have it. I want to hear what others predict. Can't wait until the season begins!
8-4 non conference
9-9 conference
1-1 BE toruney
Win a few in the NIT, maybe making it to NYC...good foundation for the next year
Quote from: downtown85 on October 27, 2009, 08:02:55 AM
4. The rotation above can generate 70 ppg offense as follows:
Hayward 16
Butler 10
Acker 5
Buycks 12
DJO 9
Maymon 7
Williams 6
Fulce 5
I would hope we can score 70 ppg. Remember we're not playing in the Big 10. Last year we ended up scoring over 78 a game.
Basically this season is unpredictable thats why you've seen so few posts on what our outcome will be. Most of us would like for us to be predicted higher than 12 and deep down think we will be better, but there's just no way to make a case for it at this point.
But just for sport I'll keep with the board's title and make my predictions:
NON-CONF: I agree 9-3 is fairly probable outcome. Lose two in Old Spice, split Wisc and NCState. The rest of the schedule is so brutally bad even with our lack of experience I can't see us slipping up against them.
CONF: Here's where I split with you. Not only will we struggle with Nova but we'll get our ass handed to us by WV and GTown. That's a quick 0-4 start and morale will be pretty low. It'll be good to see how Buzz handles the negativity, especially since the next four are all winable (Prov, DePaul, Cuse, and Rutgers). I'm just gonna say we win 3 outta those 4 to pull to 3-5.
I say we split the next 4 with losses to UConn and Prov, and wins over USF and DSuck, bringing us to 5-7. We go to Pitt whose freshman will have gained enough experience to beat us, will get lighten up by there stacked backcourt of Vaugh and Stephenson. Totals up at 5-9.
The last four I'm gonna be safe with a 2-2 split. This brings us to an unimpressive, but not entirely disheartening, 7-11 for Conference play and 16-14 overall.
POSTSEASON: now this is truly impossible to predict based on the nature of how I have predicted the rest of the season. I haven't tried to project any unlikely major upsets, or terrible losses. These are basically the factors which end up differentiating the bubble teams. But at around .500 with a 7-11 record in the BEast I think its pretty safe to say we'll be on the outside looking in. However, I think we'll be in the NIT and can use that as a springboard for next year. By then the freshman will have a good deal of high D1 experience and hopefully can get into a trend of winning in postseason tournaments.
Like I said originally, with so many new faces predictions are basically worthless. But I gave it my best go.
If Acker is in the "core group" all year, we will only win about 6 games in BE and be about 8-4 nonconference.
Non-Conference (8-4 or 9-3)
Cenetary: Win
UM - Eastern Shore: Win
Grambling: Win
South Dakota: Win
Xavier: Loss
Creighton or Michigan: Loss
FSU, Baylor, Bama or Iona: Loss to the first three, win over Iona
NC State: Win
UWM: Win
UW: Loss
North Florida: Win
Presbyterian: Win
Conference(9-9)
WVU - Loss
Villanova - Loss
Georgetown - Loss
Villanova - Loss
Providence - Win
DePaul - Win
Syracuse - Win
Rutgers - Win
UConn - Loss
DePaul - Win
Providence - Win
USF - Win
Pitt - Loss
Cincy - Loss
St. John's - Win
Seton Hall - Loss
Louisville - Loss
ND - Win
BET: No idea who we're playing so I'll say 1-1.
I think, if my math is right that means something like 18-14 or 19-13 for the year. That's good enough for the NIT or CBI, I make no predictions on that.
15 wins
Hayward 16
Butler 11
Acker 4
Buycks 7
DJO 9
Maymon 13
Williams 5
Fulce 4
Otule 5
Maymon is going to be to much for the opposition. He will be BEAST Rookie of the year. 10-8 Conf record and NCAA berth.
Thanks for the copy and paste of schedule and the players....
Non-Conference (10-3)
Cenetary: Win
UM - Eastern Shore: Win
Grambling: Win
South Dakota: Win
Xavier: Loss
Creighton or Michigan: Win
FSU, Baylor, Bama or Iona: Win
NC State: Loss
UWM: Win
UW: Loss
North Florida: Win
Presbyterian: Win
Conference(9-9)
WVU - Loss
Villanova - Loss
Georgetown - Win
Villanova - Loss
Providence - Win
DePaul - Win
Syracuse - Loss
Rutgers - Win
UConn - Loss
DePaul - Win
Providence - Loss
USF - Win
Pitt - Win
Cincy - Loss
St. John's - Win
Seton Hall - Win
Louisville - Loss
ND - Loss
BET: 1-1
Post-season: Don't have an NCAA berth with this record, don't care about the Not In Tournament. If we improve and turn out better than expected any of the last four losses could turn into wins; it would take two to make the NCAA.
Hayward 16
Butler 10
Acker 5
Buycks 8
DJO 6
Maymon 13
Williams 4
Fulce 2
Otule 5
Mbao 2
Cubillan 3
Non-Conference (8-4, 9-3 if we play Iona)
Cenetary: Win
UM - Eastern Shore: Win
Grambling: Win
South Dakota: Win
Xavier: Loss
Creighton or Michigan: Loss
FSU, Baylor, Bama or Iona: Loss to the first three, win over Iona
NC State: Win
UWM: Win
UW: Loss
North Florida: Win
Presbyterian: Win
Conference (8-10)
WVU - Loss
Villanova - Loss
Georgetown - Loss
Villanova - Loss
Providence - Win
DePaul - Win
Syracuse - Loss
Rutgers - Loss
UConn - Loss
DePaul - Win
Providence - Win
USF - Win
Pitt - Loss
Cincy - Loss
St. John's - Win
Seton Hall - Win
Louisville - Loss
ND - Win
That first stretch of games could ruin the season. If the team hangs in there and competes we could pull out a decent season with a good stretch run. If the team gives up even just a little, St. Johns and Seton Hall will turn into losses as both of those teams actually have decent talent this year.
I think we are one and done in the BET.
Just read this season preview about MU:
http://w3.nbebasketball.com/2009/10/23/2009-2010-big-east-preview-13-marquette/ (http://w3.nbebasketball.com/2009/10/23/2009-2010-big-east-preview-13-marquette/)
Their prediction: 6-12
Quote from: Boognish_MU on October 27, 2009, 11:27:41 AM
Just read this season preview about MU:
http://w3.nbebasketball.com/2009/10/23/2009-2010-big-east-preview-13-marquette/ (http://w3.nbebasketball.com/2009/10/23/2009-2010-big-east-preview-13-marquette/)
Their prediction: 6-12
That's about right. Maybe 7 or 8.
I am looking at the schedule people are basing the record off of and it is missing UWM which will be a tougher game but is very winnable. Update: n/m just saw it at least on bma's lists but no one elses.
Non-Conference (9-3,10-2 or 11-1) Depending on the Old Spice Classic
Cenetary: Win
UM - Eastern Shore: Win
Grambling: Win
South Dakota: Win
Xavier: Loss
Creighton or Michigan: Win over Creighton and loss to Michigan
FSU, Baylor, Bama or Iona: Loss to the first three, win over Iona
NC State: Win
UWM: Win
UW: Win
North Florida: Win
Presbyterian: Win
Conference(11-7,10-8)
WVU - Loss
Villanova - Loss
Georgetown - Win
Villanova - Loss
Providence - Win
DePaul - Win
Syracuse - Win/Loss
Rutgers - Win
UConn - Loss
DePaul - Win
Providence - Win
USF - Win
Pitt - Win/Loss
Cincy - Loss
St. John's - Win
Seton Hall - Win
Louisville - Loss
ND - Win
BE Tourney - Most likely 1-1.
Even worse case scenario with my records it will be barely making the NCAA tourney but losing in the first round.
Quote from: sellit07 on October 27, 2009, 11:44:59 AM
I am looking at the schedule people are basing the record off of and it is missing UWM which will be a tougher game but is very winnable. Update: n/m just saw it at least on bma's lists but no one elses.
That's because I forgot it and then went back in later to add it when the math didn't work. That should tell UWM fan's how much we care about this game when we can't even remember to include it in the schedule.
19-11 (9-9 Big East)...Probably good for 8th in the Big East
Losses in the Non-Con - Xavier, and @ UW
Wins in the Big East - vs. Georgetown, vs. Providence, @ DePaul, vs. Rutgers, vs. DePaul, @ Providence, vs. South Florida, @ St. Johns, vs. Notre Dame
Losses in the Big East: @ West Virginia, vs. Villanova, @ Villanova, @ Syracuse, @ Connecticut, vs. Pittsburgh, @ Cincinnati, @ Seton Hall, vs. Louisville
I would love to think this record would get them into the NCAAs, but it wont. Get ready for some home NIT games come March.
Dont worry though...when you are getting frustrated, just watch this video:
http://www.viddler.com/explore/YoungMUFan4/videos/27
Quote from: GOMU1104 on October 27, 2009, 01:31:43 PM
19-11 (9-9 Big East)...Probably good for 8th in the Big East
Losses in the Non-Con - Xavier, and @ UW
Wins in the Big East - vs. Georgetown, vs. Providence, @ DePaul, vs. Rutgers, vs. DePaul, @ Providence, vs. South Florida, @ St. Johns, vs. Notre Dame
Losses in the Big East: @ West Virginia, vs. Villanova, @ Villanova, @ Syracuse, @ Connecticut, vs. Pittsburgh, @ Cincinnati, @ Seton Hall, vs. Louisville
I would love to think this record would get them into the NCAAs, but it wont. Get ready for some home NIT games come March.
Dont worry though...when you are getting frustrated, just watch this video:
http://www.viddler.com/explore/YoungMUFan4/videos/27
I'd love to beat Gtown and St. Johns at St. Johns, cuz. I see us at 17-13 or 16-14. I think the way your schedule pans out we would be on the bubble of the NCAAs or a top seed in the NIT.
Either of which I am fine with for this year.
Quote from: Hards_Alumni on October 27, 2009, 01:45:26 PM
I'd love to beat Gtown and St. Johns at St. Johns, cuz. I see us at 17-13 or 16-14. I think the way your schedule pans out we would be on the bubble of the NCAAs or a top seed in the NIT.
Either of which I am fine with for this year.
As I look at my results...I realize that there would be 1 quality win (maybe 2 because of ND) in this scenario....whoops.
The selection committee would laugh at the resume, and move on.
The BE gave us 4 gimmies in the mirrors with PROV and DEP...CANT sh*t the bed in those games. They may not have more than 5 wins combined.
Quote from: GOMU1104 on October 27, 2009, 02:07:13 PM
As I look at my results...I realize that there would be 1 quality win (maybe 2 because of ND) in this scenario....whoops.
The selection committee would laugh at the resume, and move on.
The BE gave us 4 gimmies in the mirrors with PROV and DEP...CANT sh*t the bed in those games. They may not have more than 5 wins combined.
hmmm yeah, you're probably right.
Anything less than a National Championship would be a disappointment!!
Oops, forgot the teal.
Non-Conference (7-5, or 8-4) Depending on the Old Spice Classic
Cenetary: Win
UM - Eastern Shore: Win
Grambling: Win
South Dakota: Win
Xavier: Loss
Creighton or Michigan: Loss
FSU, Baylor, Bama or Iona: Loss unless Iona
NC State: Loss unless they bring back the 1074 FINAL 2 team for a 35th Anniversary but I hear Buzz is not big on that
UWM: Win
UW: Loss
North Florida: Win
Presbyterian: Win
Conference(6-12)
WVU - Loss
Villanova - Loss
Georgetown - Loss
Villanova - Loss
Providence - Win
DePaul - Win
Syracuse - Loss
Rutgers - Win
UConn - Loss
DePaul - Win
Providence - Loss on the road
USF - Win
Pitt - Loss
Cincy - Loss
St. John's - Win
Seton Hall - Loss on the road
Louisville - Loss
ND - Loss
BE Tourney - Most likely 0-1.
Win 2 in the NIT for an overall of 15-17
Now I think there may be a few great wins in there such as ND or Wis but they are young and just as likely to lose to DePaul or St. John's on the road to even it out.
As I understand, the Old Spice is a bracket tournement. Thus, do people realize that if MU loses to both Xavier and then Creighton/Michigan that we will either face Iona, a team that loss to Iona, or a team that loss to the team that loss to Iona. If people are that confident that MU would beat Iona, why would you not be confident that they would beat a team that loss to Iona? Or do people just think Iona only wins any game in a major, major upset and that if they beat Florida St in the first round that MU would still lose to the loser of the FSU & Baylor/Bama game.
I'm just curious as I've seen several people have posted that we would only beat Iona.
An overall losing record would be disapointing, but certainly a genuine and realistic possibility. Somehow, I hope we can come through with a winning record and surprise in a positive way.
Quote from: jmayer1 on October 27, 2009, 06:26:55 PM
As I understand, the Old Spice is a bracket tournement. Thus, do people realize that if MU loses to both Xavier and then Creighton/Michigan that we will either face Iona, a team that loss to Iona, or a team that loss to the team that loss to Iona. If people are that confident that MU would beat Iona, why would you not be confident that they would beat a team that loss to Iona? Or do people just think Iona only wins any game in a major, major upset and that if they beat Florida St in the first round that MU would still lose to the loser of the FSU & Baylor/Bama game.
I'm just curious as I've seen several people have posted that we would only beat Iona.
I think the only way Iona wins a game is a major major upset and expect them to be pounded by pretty much everyone in the event. They went 12-18 last year, lost two of their three best players to graduation, and aren't bringing in an impact players as freshman.
15-15 for the regular season with 8 to 9 wins in the non conference is what I'd go with if I was putting money on it. I think the potential/hope is there for 19-20 wins, but it would be an accomplishment (although not remarkable - we need to see how these guys play together - I'm hoping they far exceed expectations... Buycks is real).
The kids need to win games early on. If they go 9-3 in the non-conference, that's great, but 9-7 is very likely. The key is going to be where they are at the halfway point, two weeks into the Big East campaign and how they respond to where they are at.
When you've got teams like Rutgers with a Mike Rosario, nothing will be easy. There is plenty of young talent and an absolute stud in Lazar on this squad, and even though this isn't the Big Ten, the Big East Conference can be brutally tough even in a 'down year'.
Not going to offer my prediction. because let's be honest, you don't care what I think.
I will only say 1) I do not get the people that predict losing to NC St yet also making the NCAA's if you guys are actually bad enough to lose to NC st. you won't make the NCAA's. 2) You guys will not be bad enough to lose to NC st. they are terrible the worst team in the ACC which will be having yet another down year.
I predict UConn and Louisville will finish 1-2 in the conference ... in players arrested and/or suspended.
As for MU:
9-3 out of conference
8-10 in conference
Let it never be said I'm not an optimist.
21-11
Non-Conference (9-3)
Cenetary: Win
UM - Eastern Shore: Win
Grambling: Win
South Dakota: Win
Xavier: Loss
Creighton or Michigan: Loss
FSU, Baylor, Bama or Iona: Win
NC State: Win
UWM: Win
UW: Loss
North Florida: Win
Presbyterian: Win
Conference(11-7)
WVU - Loss
Villanova - Loss
Georgetown - Win
Villanova - Loss
Providence - Win
DePaul - Win
Syracuse - Loss
Rutgers - Win
UConn - Loss
DePaul - Win
Providence - Win
USF - Win
Pitt - Win
Cincy - Loss
St. John's - Win
Seton Hall - Win
Louisville - Loss
ND - Win
BE 1-1
Quote from: hoyasincebirth on October 27, 2009, 09:31:22 PM
Not going to offer my prediction. because let's be honest, you don't care what I think.
You act like my emo little brother did when he was still in high school. There's no reason to pout. Come in here and offer your opinion and defend it as well as you can.
Just as you have your head so far into Georgetown's team that it's hard to be objective, we're the same way with MU often times. It's nice to hear outside opinions... sometimes ;)
Quote from: hoyasincebirth on October 27, 2009, 09:31:22 PM
Not going to offer my prediction. because let's be honest, you don't care what I think.
I will only say 1) I do not get the people that predict losing to NC St yet also making the NCAA's if you guys are actually bad enough to lose to NC st. you won't make the NCAA's. 2) You guys will not be bad enough to lose to NC st. they are terrible the worst team in the ACC which will be having yet another down year.
It happens with a young team. They lose games they should win and might win some games they should lose. Actually, considering we lost to South Florida last year it can happen to any team. We lost to North Dakota State and DePaul three years ago and still made the NCAA. I'm predicting the loss as a pattern following some big wins by a young team, a big letdown. It happened with our young team four years ago: won the Great Alaskan Shootout, didn't show up to play Nebraska. Killed #2 Uconn, then laid an egg at home against Cincinnati. I think if we win 2-3 games in the Old Spice Classic we need to watch for the letdown against NC State.
Non-Conference (10-2)
Cenetary: Win
UM - Eastern Shore: Win
Grambling: Win
South Dakota: Win
Xavier: Loss
Creighton or Michigan: Loss
FSU, Baylor, Bama or Iona: Win
NC State: Win
UWM: Win
UW: Win
North Florida: Win
Presbyterian: Win
Conference(7-11)
WVU - Loss
Villanova - Loss
Georgetown - Loss
Villanova - Loss
Providence - Win
DePaul - Win
Syracuse - Win
Rutgers - Loss
UConn - Loss
DePaul - Win
Providence - Loss
USF - Win
Pitt - Loss
Cincy - Loss
St. John's - Win
Seton Hall - Loss
Louisville - Loss
ND - Win
BET 1-1
Fine
Non-Conference (9-3)
Cenetary: Win
UM - Eastern Shore: Win
Grambling: Win
South Dakota: Win
Old spice: 1-2
NC State: Win
UWM: Win
@UW: Loss
North Florida: Win
Presbyterian: Win
Conference(7-11)
@WVU - Loss
Villanova - Loss
Georgetown - Loss
@Villanova - Loss
Providence - Win
@DePaul - Win
@Syracuse - Loss
Rutgers - Win
@UConn - Loss
DePaul - Win
@Providence - Loss
USF - Win
Pitt - win
@Cincy - Win
@St. John's - Loss
@Seton Hall - Loss
Louisville - Loss
ND - Win
BET 1-1
NIT 2-1
19-16 to end the year.
Non-Conference (12-0)
Cenetary: Win
UM - Eastern Shore: Win
Grambling: Win
South Dakota: Win
Xavier: Win
Creighton or Michigan: Win
FSU, Baylor, Bama or Iona: Win
NC State: Win
UWM: Win
UW: Win
North Florida: Win
Presbyterian: Win
Conference(11-7)
WVU - Loss
Villanova - Win
Georgetown - Win
Villanova - Loss
Providence - Win
DePaul - Win
Syracuse - Loss
Rutgers - Win
UConn - Loss
DePaul - Win
Providence - Loss
USF - Win
Pitt - Win
Cincy - Loss
St. John's - Win
Seton Hall - Win
Louisville - Loss
ND - Win
BET: 2-1
I am very optimistic about this season. I think we can match the freshman season of the Three Amigos!
Why is everyone just assuming that we lose to Xavier this year? Almost no one picked MU against them at the Old Spice. They only addded one three star recruit this year, while we have 2 healthy and some solid JUCO guards in this year. Otherwise they have 3 total four star recruited players, the same as MU has healthy.
Solid team over at Xavier, but not an automatic loss. Equal talent but they have the experience. We lost to Dayton starting 4 seniors and a junior last Thanksgiving.
It will take big nights out of Lazar at the beginning, but I would not count Xavier as an autmatic loss.
Quote from: HoopsMalone on November 10, 2009, 12:12:47 AM
Why is everyone just assuming that we lose to Xavier this year? Almost no one picked MU against them at the Old Spice. They only addded one three star recruit this year, while we have 2 healthy and some solid JUCO guards in this year. Otherwise they have 3 total four star recruited players, the same as MU has healthy.
Solid team over at Xavier, but not an automatic loss. Equal talent but they have the experience. We lost to Dayton starting 4 seniors and a junior last Thanksgiving.
It will take big nights out of Lazar at the beginning, but I would not count Xavier as an autmatic loss.
To be honest I just used a combination of their name and that they got some votes in the polls to go with XU over us. Though after now doing a bit of research I'll stick with the pick. Jordan Crawford, Mark Lyons, and Brian Walsh are also eligible for Xavier in additon to their newcomer freshman. Crawford is a solid guard who had a good freshman season for Indiana, left when Crean came. Lyons was the #20 point guard in his class but was redshirted last year. Walsh is a three star shooting guard who was redshirted last year. They're definitely question marks, but the backcourt matchup still looks like a draw at best to me. Though I have to say I feel better playing a team like this on Thanksgiving and not in February.
Cent-MDES-Gram-SD: 4-0
Old Spice: 2-1
NCSt-UWM-Wis: 2-1
NFla-Pres: 2-0
WV-Vill-G-Vill: 1-3
Prov-DeP: 2-0
Cuse-Rut-Conn-DeP: 2-2
Prov-USF: 2-0
Pitt-Cincy-StJ-Hall: 2-2
Ville-Domers: 0-2
Overall: 19-11
Conference: 9-9, T-7th BE (8th Seed)
BET: 1-1
NCAA (12 Seed - Last four in): 1-1
I'm a pessimist by nature and I hope I am wrong. I haven't seen the new guys yet but I am not a fan of our returning players AT ALL with the exception of Butler and Hayward, who are both natural 3s. Of those returning players, I think Fulce may surprise if he's healthy, but he's a natural 3, too. Guards aren't everything but they're the most important thing and if Acker and Cubes are playing 40 MPG between them that does not bode well. Last year Otule did not remotely resemble a basketball player except in the team picture, and from what I've read on this board Mbao isn't going to provide useful minutes either. No size and no guards is not a recipe for success.
Non-Conference (9-3)
Centenary W
UMES – W
Grambling – W
South Dakota – W
Old Spice Classic – 1W, 2 L
NC State – W
UWM – W
@UW – L
North Florida – W
Presbyterian – W
Conference (6-12)
@UWV – L
Nova – L
Georgetown – W
@Nova – L
Providence – W
@DePaul – W
@ Syracuse – L
Rutgers – L
@UConn – L
DePaul – W
@Providence – L
USF – W
Pitt – L
@Cincinnati – L
@ St. John's – L
@Seton Hall – W
Louisville – L
Notre Dame – L
BET (0-1)
Season 15-16
No postseason
CT, I read Benny B's post earlier today and I was feeling pretty good. I read your's just now and now I am feeling pretty down. I just goes to show that nobody knows how this team will do this season. This season should be a lot of fun in any event!
Non-Conference (8-4,9-3) Depending on the Old Spice Classic
Cenetary: Win
UM - Eastern Shore: Win
Grambling: Loss -I just feel we will lose one we shouldn't, I don't know which one it will be, but it will happen (please don't be UWM)
South Dakota: Win
Xavier: Win
Creighton or Michigan: Loss to both
FSU, Baylor, Bama or Iona: Loss to Bama and Baylor, win over Iona or FSU
NC State: Win
UWM: Win
UW: Win - is anyone really that impressed or scared of UW besides it being in the KC? If we can score, we will win.
North Florida: Win
Presbyterian: Win
Something I haven't seen people bring up is that we have 6 games against the 4 teams predicted (in most season previews) lower than us (12). You win, say 5 or 6, 8-10 is almost gauranteed. We will win some games win shouldn't, and lose some we shouldn't... but from my perspective starting with 5 or 6 wins, pulling a few upsets and not being as bad as some predicted gets us to 9-9 easier than most think. And if you have an above .500 record in the Big East and a decent Non-Con the NCAA tourney is not some ridiculously optimistic goal.
Conference schedule:
Conference(9-9)
@WVU - Loss
Villanova - Loss
Georgetown - Win
@Villanova - Loss
this is an important stretch, bad to go down 0-4 simply for the mental aspect on a young team, but i think we win one of the first four, but just one-which I would be very happy with
Providence - Win
@DePaul - Win
@Syracuse - Loss
Rutgers - Win
@UConn - Loss
DePaul - Win
@Providence - Win
USF - Win
Pitt - Win
@Cincy - Loss
@St. John's - Loss
@Seton Hall - Win
Louisville - Loss
ND - Win
BE Tourney - Most likely 1-1, but with the double bye it could just as easily be 2-1
A good start can propel us to 10-8 to 11-7, Id be surprised and disappointed if we go lower than 8-10
So, worst case scenario would be 17-15 and best case is 22-10, Ill shoot for around the middle and think we get 20 wins and just miss the tourney b/c we didnt get enough quality wins. If we beat the teams we should most of the time and win 2-3 we shouldn't it will be a fun and good year.
Quote from: denverMU on November 09, 2009, 11:10:34 PM
Non-Conference (12-0)
Cenetary: Win
UM - Eastern Shore: Win
Grambling: Win
South Dakota: Win
Xavier: Win
Creighton or Michigan: Win
FSU, Baylor, Bama or Iona: Win
NC State: Win
UWM: Win
UW: Win
North Florida: Win
Presbyterian: Win
Conference(11-7)
WVU - Loss
Villanova - Win
Georgetown - Win
Villanova - Loss
Providence - Win
DePaul - Win
Syracuse - Loss
Rutgers - Win
UConn - Loss
DePaul - Win
Providence - Loss
USF - Win
Pitt - Win
Cincy - Loss
St. John's - Win
Seton Hall - Win
Louisville - Loss
ND - Win
BET: 2-1
I am very optimistic about this season. I think we can match the freshman season of the Three Amigos!
I love your optimism, but the 3 Amigos did lose a few non-con games. Its almost gauranteed for a young team to at least lose one.....But I dont think your conference prediction is at all too optimistic...very possible.
Non-Conference (13-0)
Cenetary: Win
UM - Eastern Shore: Win
Grambling: Win
South Dakota: Win
Xavier: Win
Creighton or Michigan: Win
FSU, Baylor, Bama or Iona: Win
NC State: Win
UWM: Win
UW: Win
North Florida: Win
Presbyterian: Win
Conference(12-6)
WVU - Loss
Villanova - Loss
Georgetown - Win
Villanova - Loss
Providence - Win
DePaul - Win
Syracuse - Win
Rutgers - Win
UConn - Loss
DePaul - Win
Providence - Win
USF - Win
Pitt - Loss
Cincy - Win
St. John's - Win
Seton Hall - Win
Louisville - Loss
ND - Win
Non-Con: 9--3 (Lose to Xavier; Creighton or Michigan; Wisconsin)
Conference: 8-10
17--13 with a squeak of an NIT bid thanks to an upset in the Big East Tournament.
Quote from: Benny B on November 10, 2009, 08:53:21 AM
Cent-MDES-Gram-SD: 4-0
Old Spice: 2-1
NCSt-UWM-Wis: 2-1
NFla-Pres: 2-0
WV-Vill-G-Vill: 1-3
Prov-DeP: 2-0
Cuse-Rut-Conn-DeP: 2-2
Prov-USF: 2-0
Pitt-Cincy-StJ-Hall: 2-2
Ville-Domers: 0-2
Overall: 19-11
Conference: 9-9, T-7th BE (8th Seed)
BET: 1-1
NCAA (12 Seed - Last four in): 1-1
I like Benny's approach, taking the season in chunks.
First 4 - 4-0
Old Spice - 2-1 (one team goes 3-0 (Michigan seems to be the favorite), one team goes 0-3 (probably Iona), three teams go 2-1, three teams go 1-2.
NC State - Freshmen - 2-0
at Rodents - unfortunately loss
Next 2 non-conference - wins
10-2 non-conference
Big East play
Seems to me like a lot of cut-and-dry projections in January and early February
Road games at WVU, nova, cuse and UConn - Probably will find a way to win one of them, but when projecting have to say 0-4
Need to split the first 2 home games against nova and Gtown 1-1
Home games against DePaul, PC, USF, Rutgers - 4-0, like above they could easily go 3-1 in that stretch, but when projecting you figure 4-0
The more I read about PC and DePaul, I think they sweep them on the road, too - 2-0
Leaves MU 7-5, 17-7 into the final six games of the regular season, all of which are against teams who could finish in a similar 6-12 range in the league. 3 home games, Pitt, U of L and ND, and three road games, at Cincy, at SJU, at S Hall. Could easily split the 6 games, which would be a reasonable projecton, but I think just 1 of the 3 between Cincy, SJU and S Hall will put it together this year, and that two of them will slide. So I'll say 4-2 in that 6-game stretch.
11-7 Big East
1-1 BET
0-1 NC2As
22-11 overall
Bump
Read this and realized the glass is more than half full when considering what most of us thought through this far in the season.
I think Benny B (as posted on November 10th) will be the most accurate for non-conf, (10-2). I thnk he is a little pessimistic for the conference season (he has us 9-9, I think 10-8 or even 11-7 are possible) A 1-1 in the BET would probably get us a mid to high seed if we are right.
I really like the feeling of exceeding expectations. Even a loss like the one aganst FSU doesn't taste as bad.
I was probably the most pessimistic (9-3 non-conf, 6-12 BE, 0-1 BET, 15-16 total) I've changed my mind a little because
1. The guard/wing positions are better than I thought they would be. Buycks and DJO are much better than I thought they'd be (our track record with JC's other than Butler hasn't been the best so I was wary of them). Acker and Cubillan have also both been better than I expected, as they have been serviceable at the PG position.
2. OTOH, the power positions are a little worse than I hoped. Otule got hurt (to be fair, I wasn't expecting much more than 5 fouls from him), Fulce doesn't look to be an impact player at all (if he has injury problems he still may come around) and Maymon does not have the top tier D-I ready power forward body(those body types include shoulders, you know), nor the athleticism he was purported to have and has not impressed yet (Yes, I know it is way too early to pass judgement, but for once I'd like us to get a D-I ready big man who was in fact, D-I ready). We can call Butler a guard in the opening lineup annoucements, but he and Hayward are our PF/C positions, however you want to slice them up. He has been great. Hayward battles hard and is effective as an undersized 4/5, but I think he is going to set an MU record for getting his shot blocked this year.
3. Guards are the more important position in the college game so overall we're a little better.
4. We've already won one that I thought we'd lose. So if I had to guess I'd upgrade us to 19-15 (10-2 non-conf, 7-11 BE, 1-1 BET, 1-1 NIT)
I would consider that a successful season in what should be a transition year.