The only reason I can explain having UConn, Louisville, Villanova, and Syracuse in my initial bracket's Final Four. UConn or 'Nova for the title.
This is all subject to change, of course.
Ive got UCONN, WV, Louisville and Pitt in my elite eight... with UofL and Pitt making it to the final four and title game... Im in the same boat.
I think I have all 7 BE teams in the sweet sixteen.. again.. too much BE watching.
All of the Big East #1 seeds and the 3 seeds in Villanova and 'Cuse are all legit threats to make the Final Four, if not to win the entire thing. Syracuse really showed to me that they have the mental edge that I thought they didn't in what they've had to do in the last week. I'd lump MU in that group too if James were healthy.
Even still, Marquette and West Virginia have very good shots to make the Sweet 16. I just think that the level of competition in the BE this year is so much ahead of any other league, and once you pull these teams away from pummeling each other, I think they'll really shine.
Quote from: The General on March 15, 2009, 08:08:12 PM
The only reason I can explain having UConn, Louisville, Villanova, and Syracuse in my initial bracket's Final Four. UConn or 'Nova for the title.
This is all subject to change, of course.
Those teams all have a legit shot but I would bet a lot of money against an all BE final four.
I'm in the same boat. Cuse, Pitt, Lousiville, and UConn in my final four. That's just on my first look, though. I'm guessing some of that will change when I take a better look at matchups and schedules.
Reall, though, the worst thing about watching so much Big East basketball is that now I can barely make it through many other games! It seems like watching the Big 10, Pac 10, Big 12... they're all so boring. I think we've all been spoiled by the level of competition we've seen all year.
Cuse will not go to the final four. They will lose to somebody they shouldn't at some point.
Louisville is another team that has a history of losing to lesser teams. At this point I would put my money ont Pitt and UConn.
You give me Pitt, UConn, and UNC to cut down the nets, and you can have the field.
Just be careful about Louisville. *Relatively* easy season schedule with a tournament schedule that included neither Pitt nor UConn, and a championship game versus a Syracuse team that had to play almost two extra games. Michigan State can beat Louisville.
Quote from: MUSF on March 15, 2009, 11:36:59 PM
Louisville is another team that has a history of losing to lesser teams. At this point I would put my money ont Pitt and UConn.
The Wall Street Journal did an analysis today of teams that over- and under-perform their seed, based on scoring data since 1984. Their method is to average each of the games based on seed, then compare the team to the average.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123716338941735925.html
For example, based on all 3 vs. 14 matchups since 1985, the 3 seed should win by 11 points on average.
UL is 2nd in overachieving their seed, scoring margin is an average 2.93 points better per game over expectations. (Kansas was #1 at 3.32).
Meanwhile, Wake Forest is the biggest underperformer, averaging 5.1 points worse than average.
Quote from: Marquette84 on March 16, 2009, 12:17:35 PM
The Wall Street Journal did an analysis today of teams that over- and under-perform their seed, based on scoring data since 1984. Their method is to average each of the games based on seed, then compare the team to the average.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123716338941735925.html
For example, based on all 3 vs. 14 matchups since 1985, the 3 seed should win by 11 points on average.
UL is 2nd in overachieving their seed, scoring margin is an average 2.93 points better per game over expectations. (Kansas was #1 at 3.32).
Meanwhile, Wake Forest is the biggest underperformer, averaging 5.1 points worse than average.
I'm talking about this Louisville team & recent history. What happened in the mid-eighties doesn't really have much to do with this year. Louisville's tendency to play up or down to competition this year and their las couple of trips to the tourney scares me a little bit.
Interesting analysis though, I'm not sure it means much to any program. Unless you look at a coach like Boeheim or coach K.
In one of my brackets, I have all 7 BE teams in the elite 8. I just can't help it.
Should BE tournament define the National winner!