Obvioulsy much can change with the tournaments this week, but just trying to reasonably estimate the number of teams that will be seeded ahead of MU. In advance of doing so, I would see MU as a 7 right now (yuch!), but here goes.
Very Confident...
UL
Pitt
UConn
Villanova
Syracuse
UNC
Duke
Wake Forest
Clemson
FSU
Oklahoma
Kansas
Missouri
MSU
Washington
UCLA
Tennessee
LSU
Memphis
Xavier
Pretty Confident...
Gonzaga
Butler
Possible...
Illinois
That's 23. Any others? That would seem to land MU right in that 6-7 range. The right combination of wins and losses this week (including a mandatory 2 by MU), and maybe they get as high as a 5. Right now, they just need a win to kinda turn a page.
Where am I off (Let me save someone the trouble of suggesting Purdue - they have a worse record in the Big10 than MU has in the BE, lower RPI, just lost at home to Northwetern, and is currently putting the finishing touches on a thumping @ MSU. Not a single thing they have done to warrant a better seed than MU.)?
we will get GT after they beat STJ in the BET....really tought to beat a team 3 X's....I think we are a 7-8 seed & end the season losing 6 in a row. :(
BDZ,
Like to say I hope you are wrong, but there is a very real possibility we end the season on a 6 game losing streak.
Quote from: NavinRJohnson on March 08, 2009, 01:18:14 PM
Obvioulsy much can change with the tournaments this week, but just trying to reasonably estimate the number of teams that will be seeded ahead of MU. In advance of doing so, I would see MU as a 7 right now (yuch!), but here goes.
Very Confident...
UL
Pitt
UConn
Villanova
Syracuse
UNC
Duke
Wake Forest
Clemson
FSU
Oklahoma
Kansas
Missouri
MSU
Washington
UCLA
Tennessee
LSU
Memphis
Xavier
Pretty Confident...
Gonzaga
Butler
Possible...
Illinois
That's 23. Any others? That would seem to land MU right in that 6-7 range. The right combination of wins and losses this week (including a mandatory 2 by MU), and maybe they get as high as a 5. Right now, they just need a win to kinda turn a page.
Where am I off (Let me save someone the trouble of suggesting Purdue - they have a worse record in the Big10 than MU has in the BE, lower RPI, just lost at home to Northwetern, and is currently putting the finishing touches on a thumping @ MSU. Not a single thing they have done to warrant a better seed than MU.)?
I would argue that we can still pass these teams with a good week in NYC. Right now its a crap shoot because of the losing streak but a week ago we would have been comfortably ahead of them.
Syracuse
Xavier
UCLA
Tennessee
Missouri
Between 7-9, I'm guessing an 8 seed, which means they will play the #1 seed in the second round if they win. If they are a 7 they play a 2 seed in the second if they win.
Brutal.
-As far as the beating a team three times cliche, it's way overblown. It might be tough to do, but it happens something like 70% of the time (though with the team we have right now the 30% looks a lot bigger).
-St. John's did just beat GTown less than a week ago. It would be just as tough a game for us to play them on their home floor.
-If the Big East would get three #1 seeds, it'll be less likely we get the 8/9 seed since we couldn't be in 6 of the 8 slots. We would also know we're playing UNC in round two if we would win.
I think if we want to make any argument for a 6 seed, we should win two games this week. If we lose the first, nobody can complain about the seed of a team on a 5 game losing streak after losing a key player; we're at the mercy of the committee.
If we do end up as a #8 seed, I would assume it would be in a region with a non-Big East #1.
Possible #1s
Pitt
UCONN
Louisville
UNC
Memphis
Oklahoma
Michigan State (longshot)
It seems like Memphis would be our best matchup... Anyone have thoughts?
Quote from: MU_B2002 on March 09, 2009, 10:34:17 AM
If we do end up as a #8 seed, I would assume it would be in a region with a non-Big East #1.
Possible #1s
Pitt
UCONN
Louisville
UNC
Memphis
Oklahoma
Michigan State (longshot)
It seems like Memphis would be our best matchup... Anyone have thoughts?
Agreed Memphis would be the best option. If we played OU, I'd put Griffin down for 35/20. That man scares me a lot.
One early elbow to Griffin's head finishes Oklahoma.
Touche.
I'd hate to think Illinois would get a better seed than us. Tehy may, but I don't think it would be right.
I think our baseline seeding right now is a 7. Every win we get in the Big East tourny will improve our seed by 1 game. Another loss and we are in danger of a 8-9 seed and if its a bad loss it could be a 10.
I'm hoping for a 6. I could see a beating a 3 if we get to the second round. I'm just hoping for a sweet sixteen, even though I don't think it's likely at this point.
We're around an 7-8 right now and will have to beat Nova for significant improvement. We're probably 6 or 7 from the Big East in the committee's eyes (Syracuse is ahead of us now and I'm not sure about WVU) which is danger territory for taking hits in seeding to keep same conference teams from meeting up too early.
Just wondering...what was Nova's seed last year when they made the sweet 16? A 10-11? Alot of times, it's the draw just as much the seeding.
Depends upon BET performance. No wins = 8 or 9. 1 win = 7. 2 wins = 6. Three wins = 5.
Getting a 7 may be a blessing, when MU was projected as a 4 they were heading to Boise or Portland. With a 7 we have been going to Minneapolis or KC. Lunardi has us travelling to KC and playing Siena with a followup against KU. KU is young and overrated and would love a little payback for the final four.
I'd say we are a 6 right now and one win keeps us there or higher.
Nova was a 12 last year.
I see us as a 6 right now. We probably need to win tomorrow to maintain that 6 but maybe not--either way, I doubt if we drop below a 7. If we win tomorrow and beat Villanova, that should get us up to a 5. If we win Friday (getting us to the BET finals) over Loserville, we could move up to a 4. I am not prepared to predict what may happen beyond that, but I don't see us moving above a 4 unless we could destroy everyone on the way to winning the BET.
Quote from: BrewCity on March 10, 2009, 11:17:48 AM
If we win Friday (getting us to the BET finals) over UCONN, we could move up to a 4.
Would be over UL, but the point is taken.
After UConn, I wanted 2 more wins prior to the NCAA tourney, and I have to say that still hasn't changed. Still looking for the first of those, and it may not come, but we would be in fine shape if we get them.
Anyone see any needed updates to the list above?
Quote from: mufanatic on March 09, 2009, 10:57:41 AM
I think our baseline seeding right now is a 7. Every win we get in the Big East tourny will improve our seed by 1 game. Another loss and we are in danger of a 8-9 seed and if its a bad loss it could be a 10.
I would agree with your assessment, short two things. I think MU's baseline seeding as we speak is a 6. Down to a 7 with a loss, stay at 6 with 1-1, up 1 for every win after Wednesday.