http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa_basketball/projection?game_id=200902250339
Same exact data on ESPN.
http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/pickcenter?gameId=290560269
Says we win 41.2% of the time in over 10,000 simulations
it's done by accuscore. cbs.sportsline uses it too.
Says at the bottom of the website:
QuoteAbout AccuScore Simulations
AccuScore forecasts the future of sports, just like the weather forecast predicts the weather. We use a highly complex simulation engine run off of a bank of super computers and then we analyze the results.
Well if its anything like the weathermen who predict the weather it will be totally off.