MUScoop

So info (as of Friday night) ....

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/rankings?pollId=2


1. Connecticut (28) 20-1 772 2
  Last Week: Def. DePaul 71-49 (1/28), Def. Providence 94-61 (1/31)
  This Week: Def. No. 7 Louisville 68-51 (2/2), 2/7 vs. Michigan (15-8) 

2. Oklahoma (3) 21-1 729 5
  Last Week: Def. Oklahoma State 89-81 (1/26), Def. Iowa State 78-68 (1/31)
  This Week: Def. Texas A&M 77-71 (2/4), 2/7 vs. Colorado (9-12) 

3. Duke  19-2 682 1
  Last Week: Lost to No. 4 Wake Forest 70-68 (1/28), Def. Virginia 79-54 (2/1)
  This Week: Lost to No. 10 Clemson 74-47 (2/4), 2/7 vs. Miami (FL) (15-7) 

4. North Carolina  19-2 670 6
  Last Week: Def. Florida State 80-77 (1/28), Def. North Carolina State 93-76 (1/31)
  This Week: Def. Maryland 108-91 (2/3), 2/7 vs. Virginia (7-11)

5. Pittsburgh  19-2 633 3
  Last Week: Lost to No. 21 Villanova 67-57 (1/28), Def. No. 22 Notre Dame 93-80 (1/31)
  This Week: Def. Robert Morris 92-72 (2/2), 2/7 at DePaul (8-15)

6. Wake Forest  17-2 609 4
  Last Week: Def. No. 1 Duke 70-68 (1/28), Lost to Georgia Tech 76-74 (1/31)
  This Week: Lost to Miami (FL) 79-52 (2/4), 2/8 vs. Boston College (18-6) 

7. Louisville  17-3 604 7
  Last Week: Def. South Florida 80-54 (1/28), Def. West Virginia 69-63 (1/31)
  This Week: Lost to No. 1 Connecticut 68-51 (2/2), 2/8 at St. John's (12-10)

8. Marquette  19-2 586 8
  Last Week: Def. No. 22 Notre Dame 71-64 (1/26), Def. No. 23 Georgetown 94-82 (1/31)
  This Week: Def. DePaul 76-61 (2/3), Lost at South Florida 57-56 (2/6)

9. Xavier  19-2 529 10
  Last Week: Def. Charlotte 69-47 (1/28), Def. Massachusetts 82-80 (1/31)
  This Week: Def. Temple 83-74 (2/5), 2/7 at Duquesne (14-7)

10. Clemson  18-2 487 11
  Last Week: Def. Virginia Tech 86-82 (1/29)
  This Week: Def. No. 3 Duke 74-47 (2/4), 2/7 vs. Florida State (17-5)

11. Butler  19-1 456 13
  Last Week: Def. Valparaiso 59-51 (1/30)
  This Week: Lost to Green Bay 75-66 (2/2), Def. Detroit 66-61 (2/5), 2/7 at Wright State (14-9)

12. UCLA  17-4 400 16
  Last Week: Def. California 81-66 (1/29), Def. Stanford 97-63 (1/31)
  This Week: Def. USC 76-60 (2/4), 2/7 vs. Notre Dame (12-9) 

13. Purdue  17-4 369 17
  Last Week: Def. Wisconsin 64-63 (1/27), Def. Michigan 67-49 (1/31)
  This Week: Lost to Ohio State 80-72 (2/3), 2/8 at No. 21 Illinois (18-5) 

14. Michigan State  17-4 356 9
  Last Week: Def. Iowa 71-56 (1/29), Lost to Penn State 72-68 (2/1)
  This Week: Def. No. 19 Minnesota 76-47 (2/4), 2/7 vs. Indiana (6-15) 

15. Memphis  18-3 309 19
  Last Week: Def. East Carolina 85-64 (1/28), Def. Houston 83-68 (1/31)
  This Week: Def. Southern Methodist 79-66 (2/4), 2/7 at No. 18 Gonzaga (17-4)

16. Villanova  17-4 298 21
  Last Week: Def. No. 3 Pittsburgh 67-57 (1/28), Def. Cincinnati 71-50 (2/1)
  This Week: Def. Providence 94-91 (2/4), 2/7 vs. No. 20 Syracuse (18-5)

17. Texas  15-5 274 12
  Last Week: Def. Baylor 78-72 (1/27), Lost to Kansas State 85-81 (1/31)
  This Week: Lost to Missouri 69-65 (2/4), 2/7 at Nebraska (14-7) 

18. Gonzaga  16-4 201 25
  Last Week: Def. No. 18 Saint Mary's 69-62 (1/29), Def. San Diego 64-47 (1/31)
  This Week: Def. Portland 93-78 (2/5), 2/7 vs. No. 15 Memphis (19-3)

19. Minnesota  18-3 197 24
  Last Week: Def. No. 20 Illinois 59-36 (1/29)
  This Week: Lost to No. 14 Michigan State 76-47 (2/4), 2/7 at Ohio State (16-5)

20. Syracuse  17-5 162 15
  Last Week: Lost to Providence 100-94 (1/28)
  This Week: Def. West Virginia 74-61 (2/4), 2/7 at No. 16 Villanova (18-4) 

This should drop us seven or eight spots. A loss at Nova and we're 20 or 21. A win at Nova boots us back to 11 or 12.

It took a long time to get to 8.

It'll take only a few days to get to 15.

It's a long way to the top if you want to rock n roll...


This is what the nay sayers were waiting for....we will fall like a rock.  A loss to VU and MU is 25 another loss and out of the Top 25.  Another loss and 12 seed.

This sched. is gonna kick our ass.

15 or 16

who cares what we are ranked. We certainly did not play like a Top 25 team tonight.

the sad thing is we could have been #5 come monday and even sadder that we just crap away a Big East championship opportunity.  Big East champs dont lose to South Fla.  that game has to be in the W column.  I am not so disappointed that we lost but how we lost for all the talk of maturity and embracing roles, i saw very little of it tonight.

I understand people's disappoint with tonight's loss, but how many of us had MU 9-0 going into this game?  We still have a good chance of going 12-1 into our last stretch.

Quote from: reinko on February 06, 2009, 09:44:26 PM
I understand people's disappoint with tonight's loss, but how many of us had MU 9-0 going into this game?  We still have a good chance of going 12-1 into our last stretch.

Yes, if you told us back on April 7 (the day Buzz was named HC) we'd be 20-2, ranked #8, first in the BE and then get upset at USF, I'm guessing 100% of this board would have dismissed that as a widly optimistic scenario.

However, ask the same question 30 minutes before the USF game and it be a complete disaster to lose.

Prosecptive?  The last 24 hours is all that matters.

This is why I hate polls.  I really believe pollster hate us.  I will be SOOO happy to be at 12.  I think we might drop farther.  I hate this crap.  If we were MSU or Duke or something, we would drop to a 10.  I think we will drop to 15 or 16.  There is a shot that we drop to 10 or 11 with the nice bandwagon that was starting

I'm guessing we'll be in the mid-teens somewhere.  This loss was annoying, but I really don't think it matters all that much.  What will make or break our seed is how we do over those last 5 games.  If we go 3-2 or better, we'll get a very high seed.  2-3 and we'll get probably a 4 or more likely a 5 seed.  Anything worse and we'll be a middle seed, unless somehow we win the BE tournament.

Probably 15

look at the results this week 3,6,7,8,9,10,11,13,17,18,19,20,21 and 25 all lost this week.  That's 14 of the top 25 lost this week.   Many of them to unranked teams by worse scores than MU. 

If we lose 7 spots and go to #15, what about the other 13 losers?  Are they also going to lose seven spots as well?  Are they going to shift all 14 losers down 7 spots?  If so, who fills in?  Does 'nova jump from #16 to #7 this week because they beat #20 'cuse?  Last week we beat a ranked team (at the time) in G-town and did not move at all in the polls.

We picked a good week to lose because everyone else did.  We move to #11, maybe #10.

I bet we drop 10 to 18

Considering 3,6,7,8,9,10,11,13,17,18,19,20 ALL lost, I don't see how we move down much.  Just not enough teams to jump us.  I'll predict 12.

Let me more specific ... If MU dives 7 spots this week, what do you have these teams doing?

#11. Butler beaten 66-75 by Green Bay
#10. Clemson losing 61-65 at home to Florida State
#9. Xavier losing 68-72 to Duquesne
#6. Wake Forest getting embarrassed 52-79 to Miami
#3. Duke getting humbled 47-74 to Clemson, and then needing overtime AT HOME to beat Miami

Are they all diving 7 spots?  Counting MU, that is six teams.  If you believe this, name me the six teams moving up 7 spots to that their place?  Here are a seven teams NOT moving up:

#25. Washington blown out by unranked California 71-86
#21. Illinois whipped 50-63 by the Wisconsin
#20. Syracuse embarrassed 85-102 to the #16 Villanova
#19 Minnesota Lost to # 14 Michigan State 76-47 and Lost to Ohio State 64-58
#18 Gonzaga lost to #15 Memphis 68-50
#17. Texas losing two 2 unranked teams, 65-69 Texas, 55-58 to Missouri
#13. Purdue beaten 72-80 by an Ohio State team that lost by more than twenty at home to WVU

I've just covered 13 of the top 25.  Who else?

#7. Louisville holds serve at #7 because of its Uconn loss
#12 UCLA, #14 Mich State, #15 Memphis and #16 'Nova move up SLIGHTLY for beating teams they were favored to beat
#1, #2, #4, and #5 are too high to be affected by this conversation
#22, #23 and #24 all won (against teams they were favored to beat) and are too low to be affected by this conversation.

I've accounted for all of the top 25.  Their are no other teams (unless you want to make the case USF enters the rankings at #8).  Their is no way MU dives 7 spots unless the top 25 has the biggest re-ordering in its history.

This thread is instructive, it shows how for all the reasoned talk and sudo basketball knowledge, in the end we are nothing but a bunch of emotional over-reacting fans.  At Wrigley the bleach bums can blame it on the beer, what is the excuse here?

We move to #11

11 or 12.

AnotherMU84 - love the post.  When i read this thread topic the first time, I thought "I'll answer this question when the rest of the slate of games are played out."  Well, now they have and I think you're right on.  I would say we will be 10 or 11.  Did we play like a 10th or 11th ranked team?  No, absolutely not - not in that game.  But how do you justify anyone else's position in the poles?  I think your post wrapped it up nicely.

All the other teams losing saved us. We drop to 10th. Remember there is a wide spread belief that we have not played anyone good at this point.

Quote from: bilsu on February 08, 2009, 09:13:56 PM
All the other teams losing saved us. We drop to 10th. Remember there is a wide spread belief that we have not played anyone good at this point.

"Good" = 'ville, uconn or Pitt.  Everyone else is a second team loser

CBS Sportsline (Gary Parrish) has us at 11

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/polls/top25

Im assuming all of these posts were before today when #9 and #10 lost, if not then no one even bothered to look at the polls.

I'm not positive exactly how it will shake out, but I see us staying at #8, and I personally think we should actually move up to #7 considering how crazy of a week it has been.

Very realistically, the only teams that could even have a shot at passing us would be UCLA, MSU, Memphis and Villanova.

For comparison we can look at MSU last week, who was ranked #9 and lost at HOME by 4 to Penn State, who had no top 25 votes. The last team to jump MSU was Purdue who gained 221 votes on them by not losing and winning games they were supposed to. Memphis could not reach ahead of them, as they were 282 back and ended 47 back, only making up 235 votes. So Purdue and Memphis gained 221 and 235 votes, respectively.

Going into this week, UCLA was down 186, MSU 230, Memphis 277, and Villanova 288. Losing to a poor team (a team that UCONN beat at the buzzer no less) is not enough to allow Memphis and Villanova to pass us, especially considering we beat Nova already. They both have worse records and less top 25 wins.

MSU has a chance, but almost certainly will not pass us. As I said, they are 230 points back. Just the previous week we had them by 70+ votes. Since then we are 3-1 with an unranked road loss and two wins against the top 25 and they are 3-1 with an unranked HOME loss and one win against the top 25. How does that allows them to gain 70+ votes? It doesnt. It wont. Also, we have a better record in a better conference.

UCLA will most likely pass us, but only because polls put too much emphasis on recent events. The fact of the matter is that UCLA has no wins against any top 25 team and is 19-4. We are 20-3, play in the best conference, and have 5 wins against top 25 teams. Those facts alone, taking the whole season in perspective, puts us very much ahead of UCLA. They beat a Notre Dame team that has already packed it in. When we played Notre Dame they were fighting tool and nail to turn their season around - at HOME. Those are not relatable games.

The last thing I very much believe, we should pass Wake. Before this week began they were 23 votes ahead of us. I will be the first to admit that Miami is better than USF, but Wake lost by 27 and we lost by 1. If Lazar hits a wide open 1' put back we absolutely fly by Wake. I do not think that the gap between Miami and USF is even close to the gap between 27 points and 1 point. USF needed a lot of luck to win that game and Wake lost when they got off the team bus. Plain and simple, Marquette had a better week than Wake.

In summary, my prediction is that UCLA will pass, MSU will stay behind and Wake will stay ahead, making us #9. My biased MU vote would put us down at #7, but I would back it up with cold hard facts.

Memphis will pass us.

Quote from: Sir Lawrence on February 08, 2009, 09:27:03 PM
CBS Sportsline (Gary Parrish) has us at 11

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/polls/top25

His poll seems about right I think. We will be 11 or 12.

12 before reading any of the boo hoo crap in this thread.

everyone loses.

we lost by a point on the road in the big east (our first BE loss, no less), and we just had a rough night shooting.

hopefully that will be taken into account when the rankings come out.

12.

thank you, thank you, hold your applause.

Quote from: Hards_Alumni on February 09, 2009, 03:41:28 PM
thank you, thank you, hold your applause.

Not so fast, we were ranked 10th as well.

Quote from: marqptm on February 09, 2009, 04:01:50 PM
Not so fast, we were ranked 10th as well.

yeah, don't hurt yourself patting yourself on the back.  I predicted 10 or 11 along with many others that picked 10 or 12 according to this poll.  ;)

How about that RPI at 24?  Don't like that number.

that because our SOS is so low.  Once we play 'ville, uconn, 'cuse and pitt, our SOS will go up a lot.  All things being equal, our RPI will go up.

However, we lose all four of those games ....

congrats to the others who picked 10-12 as well, of course.

I just get tired of people who really believe that one loss to a team in the BEAST on the road, by ONE point while we had a terrible (out of the ordinary for sure) shooting night means that we will drop to the lower twenties.

ESPECIALLY given the terrible week that the rest of the top teams managed to pull of.