if we somehow were to win there and at Nova, we would virtually wrap up a top four finish in the league. Those two days off in NYC watching the bottom 12 teams beat up on each other would be nice.
You're right...assuming we win on Friday, that game at Villanova has huge implications for the rest of the year. If we can manage to win that thing, we should be sitting on a pretty decent cushion going into those final 5 games if they take care of business at home against SJU and SHU. A loss, and a top 4 finish becomes appreciably more difficult. They've answered the bell thus far @Providence and @ND to maintain their top-tier status. We'll see if they can continue to do so over the next 6 days or so.
Nova's resume actually looks a lot like ours, except they've already played their games against UConn, Pitt, Louisville, and @us. Sweeping them would go a long way for us.
Nova's resume looks a lot like ours? They've lost one-third of their BEast games. We have lost zero. I'll see how our resume compares to theirs after our UConn, Pitt and Louisville games. Until then, our resume is LOADS better.
Quote from: dsfire on February 05, 2009, 09:32:00 AM
Nova's resume actually looks a lot like ours, except they've already played their games against UConn, Pitt, Louisville, and @us.
While I'd like to go 4-0 in our games against UConn, @UL, @Pitt, and @Nova, I'm not crossing 1-3 out of the realm of possibility. Point is, finishing above them is going to be easier by beating them twice than it would be splitting and trying to slug it out based upon record.
It's funny because those that say we haven't "played" anyone say that beating ND @ ND was a good win. They completely look past wins like @ Prov and vs. Vill. So winning at Vill would look great on our resume!
Can anyone remember the last time a conference had six legitimate Final Four contenders?
Quote from: dsfire on February 05, 2009, 09:32:00 AM
Nova's resume actually looks a lot like ours, except they've already played their games against UConn, Pitt, Louisville, and @us. Sweeping them would go a long way for us.
You have to think Nova, Syr, Providence will drop an additional game or two going forward. MU has built a nice cushion by taking care of business in the winnable but tough games. If MU can continue to do that, a top 4 spot will be there.
Quote from: StillWarriors on February 05, 2009, 10:32:34 AM
You have to think Nova, Syr, Providence will drop an additional game or two going forward. MU has built a nice cushion by taking care of business in the winnable but tough games. If MU can continue to do that, a top 4 spot will be there.
I can agree with that, especially considering Nova and Cuse have 2 games yet to play against each other. I don't think Providence is a legit top 4 BE team, but basketball is a strange sport and weirder things have happened.
For a Top 4 BE seed, the last 5 games will have ZERO influence on MU, as MU (with a win over Nova, USF, Seton Hall, and St. Johns) will have conceivably guranateed a Top 4 seed by that game @ Georgetown.
MU would be 13-0 going into Georgetown, and all you have to do is look at the L column in the standings. By that time, assuming MU wins these next four games:
-MU holds tiebreakers over current 5 loss teams Cincy and West Virginia
-A win at Villanova give MU a tiebreaker over Nova.
-MU holds tiebreaker with current 4 loss team Providence
Pay no attention to UConn, Louisville, or Pittsburgh, they'll be right there with MU for the top 4 seeds. MU would need Villanova and Providence to get to 5 losses each, and Syracuse to get to 6 losses (heading into MU's last 5 game stretch).
Providence schedule between now and 2/21 (when MU is @ G-Town)
@ West Virginia
@ South Florida
Rutgers
@ Louisville
Notre Dame
I see at least one loss for sure in there.
Villanova schedule between now and 2/21
Syracuse
Marquette
@ West Virginia
Rutgers
(Then on 2/22, they are at Syracuse)
Syracuse schedule between now and 2/21
@Villanova
@UConn
Georgetown
(Then on 2/22, hosts Villanova)
It's not going to take much (again, assuming a win at Villanova), for MU to clinch a top 4 seed in the next 17 days.
Top 4 seed? Why don't we just win the whole thing and take the 1 seed?
Quote from: MUDish on February 05, 2009, 10:49:58 AM
(again, assuming a win at Villanova)
big assumption
that said, I see a pretty good likelihood that MU ends up with a top four seed. There's an outside shot of winning the BE championship, but things would have to shake out very favorably.
Fifteen wins isn't going to win the BE this year. It'll be a team with 16 or 17 wins, IMO.
Quote from: mug644 on February 05, 2009, 09:45:14 AM
Nova's resume looks a lot like ours? They've lost one-third of their BEast games. We have lost zero. I'll see how our resume compares to theirs after our UConn, Pitt and Louisville games. Until then, our resume is LOADS better.
Let's recap Nova's 3 losses: At Marquette (79-72), Louisville (61-60), at UConn (89-83). So they've lost to the top three teams in the conference, and played them all tough. This will be a major hurdle, getting past Nova on the road. This is a good team.
Quote from: MUDish on February 05, 2009, 10:49:58 AM
For a Top 4 BE seed, the last 5 games will have ZERO influence on MU, as MU (with a win over Nova, USF, Seton Hall, and St. Johns) will have conceivably guranateed a Top 4 seed by that game @ Georgetown.
Agreed, but therein lies the point...that game at Villanova theoretically is a season changer of sorts. I have a very hard time lumping that game in with USF, SHU, and SJU. It will most assuredly be our toughest test of the season to that point. Win it, and they are sittin' pretty. Lose it, and they may well be in a dog fight for that double bye until March 7th.
Then again, they may just be that good and will walk away with a BE title.
I might have come off sounding like @ Nova was going to be easy. I agree it'll be as tough a test as MU has had all year. I only lumped them in with USF, SJU, and SH as they are the next four games.
Not looking past South Florida, but that game Tuesday night is huge. Total agreement that game is a season changer, with you 100% on that.
I've already looked past south florida. also st. john's and seton hall. they are games in which we will be heavy favorites to win, so there's really nothing to debate about them. when they are on, i will tune in and enjoy them. but the games worthy of discussion are @nova and the last five. I agree with Henry...if we want to win the Big East, we have to go at least 4-2 in those games. 16-2 should do it. i can't see louisville or uconn losing more than 2 each in their remaining schedules. so for them, 15-3 is probably worse case scenario, barring a shocking upset. Pitt's best case scenario is probably 15-3, more likely 14-4.
Quote from: Henry Sugar on February 05, 2009, 10:55:39 AM
There's an outside shot of winning the BE championship, but things would have to shake out very favorably.
MUDish has a pretty good analysis of where things stand and what it might take to earn a top 4 seed, and it certainly looks likely, especially if we win at Villanova.
As for winning the BE championship, to say that "things would have to shake out very favorably" ignores that fact that we are in control. We are the only undefeated team in the conference. If we keep winning, and even if we only win at home, or only win those games where we will be favored, we'll be in good shape. Yes, a win over UConn is probably necessary, and a win at Louisville could be key, but we will be playing in those games. It's not like we need someone to beat someone else.
The title is there for the taking, if we earn it. Keep playing as we are and we control our destiny to earn it. Go MU!
Let's beat USF! Will be a tough road game....
GO Marquette!!
I was claiming that Nova would not make the NCAA's. I think I was wrong about that now. They appear to be playing well and will be a tough game for us. However, their strength is their guards and I believe our guards are better. We are a bad match up for them. We need at least a split between our games at Villanova and Georgetown, Beat SF, SH & SJ and that gives us 13 wins. If that happens the Syracuse game could be for the fourth spot. I also believe we can beat Pittsburg. I believe we cannot beat Uconn and Louisville. I think we finish with 14 wins. Worst case 12 and best case 15.
Bilsu,
We can beat Louisville. They have trouble scoring and are not the same team that has frustrated us recently. They are best at pressing and playing tough D, but our guards can handle them. I think that we beat the the majority of the time on a neutral court and winning is definitely a possibility at their place.
I was as impressed with UConn as you, but I think we can take them at home.