After seeing a few conference record predictions, I thought I'd give a different perspective on how I think our conference record could be broken down. The way I see it, there are 7 games against conference bottom feeders that we should be expected to win:
@Rutgers
@Providence
Depaul (home and away)
@South Florida
Seton Hall
Now I'm not saying we will, but IF we can take care of business and win all 7 of those, and considering we just beat Villanova, we only need to win 1 of the rest of these games to have a .500 record in conference:
Cinci
WVU
@ND
Georgetown (home and away)
@Nova
UConn
@Louisville
@Pitt
Syracuse
I think Cinci is definitely winnable. Say we beat Cinci, that puts us at 9-9, and we have 9 chances to get above .500. If we do happen to lose a game to a bottom feeder, we then we have to win an extra game against one of the top teams to make up for it. Obviously every game is important, but taking care of those 7 games against bottom feeders will be crucial in order for us to finish .500 or better in conference. And if we can do that, we may actually fare pretty well in conference. I'm hoping we'd be able to pull off at least a couple wins out of that bottom group. But the key is to take care of business against the bottom feeders to give us a shot.
Taking care of the bottom feeders will be very important. The games you mentioned almost all have to be wins. I did a quick look, and putting Cincy in the "should win" column, came up with the same list and saying we split WVU/Georgetown home games, put us at 9-9. However, I find it hard to believe we would go winless in the last five games, two which are at home and the game at Pitt, who we usually have some success with. I predict one of those as wins, so my predicting comes out to 10-8. I can see 9-9; less than that would be disappointing, more than 10 wins would be a very pleasant surprise.
Best case scenario in my view is 12-6 and worst case is 9-9. If our starters are able to stay out of foul trouble,if we don't have many games where one of the three amigos is off and we get a little more production from the bench then I can see an 11 or 12 win conference record. Realistically, I can't see us going throughout the conference without at least two or three games where we don't get in foul trouble. Senior leadership will be critical in close games and I can see a let down loss ( Providence or Rutgers) along with a win that might be considered unexpected ( Gtown at home or Pitt on the road).
@ Rutgers and @ Providence are tough road games. Those teams will be tough at home, especially Rutgers. So I'd guess 6-1 on your winnable games list (assuming you accidentally omitted Saint John's). I think we win home against Cincy, which means we need to go 1-8 in the other 9 games ot go .500. I think 3-6 is more likely for an overall 11-7 mark.
I tend to focus on home games.
Of your bottom list:
Cinci
WVU
@ND
Georgetown (home and away)
@Nova
UConn
@Louisville
@Pitt
Syracuse
Cincy, WVU, GTown, UConn, SU are at home. Of those 5, we're going to win at least 3, maybe 4, maybe all 5. Yes, yes, GTown, UC, SU are elite teams. Our 4 seniors have beaten plenty of elite BE teams in the past 3 years. A full house Bradley Center makes MU a better team.
We'll win a road game we're not supposed to, and lose a game to your upper bunch that we're not supposed to lose.
12-6.
We saw yesterday how huge experience is. Our big 4 have been through the wars, had off nights, and when they started slow they didn't force it.
The key is holding court at home. These games need to be won because MU holds a strong HC advantage perennially. If we hold our home court, it will give us a minimum W/L of .500 along with some quality wins with teams like Pitt, Louisville & Gtown making visits in '09
I wrote up something like is on a different thread....not having seen this one. To sum up.
11-7
6-2 in Jan
5-2 in Feb
0-3 in Mar
12-6
Which I think will be good enough to get us a first round bye in the BE Tourney. There is no question games like @ Rutgers will be tough but if we defend the home court and play well enough on the road I see us going 12-6, maybe 11-7.