Dayton Numbers Recap
Written by: noreply@blogger.com (Rob Lowe (aka Henry Sugar))
Just wanted to break down the Dayton game a bit by numbers before we move on to Central Michigan and then the hated Badgers. After all, it is rivalry week.
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Xpuy4viivhI/STSkZq1kf8I/AAAAAAAAAcI/tQoZJImsVCE/s400/Dayton.png)
(http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Xpuy4viivhI/STSkZq1kf8I/AAAAAAAAAcI/tQoZJImsVCE/s1600-h/Dayton.png)
No surprise, but Dayton won on almost every aspect of the Four Factors (http://marquettebasketball.blogspot.com/2008/11/value-of-tempo-free-stats-four-factors.html). Even the one area where Marquette enjoyed an advantage was negligible. The numbers tell us that this game was lost on the defensive end. Marquette's offensive efficiency was definitely worse than their season average (1.15 points per possession), but it was the inability to stop Dayton defensively that was the real killer.
I'd like to look at two primary culprits, eFG% and TO Rate.
If Marquette averaged a defensive eFG% of 56.1%, that would be #325 in the nation (http://kenpom.com/factors.php?t=d&s=3). If we averaged a defensive Turnover Rate of 14.6%, that would be #340 (http://kenpom.com/factors.php?y=2009&t=d&s=5). From my own modeling efforts, both of those results ended up outside the expected 90% confidence interval.
eFG%
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Xpuy4viivhI/STSn5idfjpI/AAAAAAAAAcQ/eVW8MVmP2co/s400/Dayton+eFG%25.png)
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Xpuy4viivhI/STSn5idfjpI/AAAAAAAAAcQ/eVW8MVmP2co/s1600-h/Dayton+eFG%25.png)I calculated that Dayton should have gotten an eFG% somewhere between 23% and 55%, with a most likely view right around 42%. After all, Dayton's season eFG% is 46.0 (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?y=2009&team=Dayton).
TO Rate
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Xpuy4viivhI/STSoGHIL-dI/AAAAAAAAAcY/NgB7l3lSaTQ/s400/Dayton+TO+Rate.png)
(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Xpuy4viivhI/STSoGHIL-dI/AAAAAAAAAcY/NgB7l3lSaTQ/s1600-h/Dayton+TO+Rate.png)TO Rate tells a similar story. Dayton coughs up the ball 20.2% of the time (http://kenpom.com/sr.php?y=2009&team=Dayton) and Marquette forces a lot of turnovers (well, they usually do). Dayton should have had a turnover rate somewhere between 21% and 35%. For Dayton to protect the ball at 14.6% is another result outside the range of expectations.
So was it just one bad game, or was it a result of Marquette being exposed? It's way too early to tell, but if I was forced to make a judgement, I'd lean towards one bad game. If these teams played again, I'd be shocked if Dayton was in the top 5% of expected eFG% and Turnover Rate.
At least we'll get another opportunity to see how Marquette stacks up against a good team on Saturday. Plus, there's a game tomorrow! Let's move on.
http://marquettebasketball.blogspot.com/2008/12/dayton-numbers-recap.html
Sugar, the work you do for CS and this board never ceases to amaze me. Well done!
Quote from: IAmMarquette on December 01, 2008, 09:55:49 PM
Sugar, the work you do for CS and this board never ceases to amaze me. Well done!
Sugar is sweet!
Mods, can you do a search for "Trevor Mbakwe" and replace with "Henry Sugar"?
http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=5048.0
Quote from: Pardner on December 01, 2008, 11:14:12 PM
Mods, can you do a search for "Trevor Mbakwe" and replace with "Henry Sugar"?
http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=5048.0
Thanks for finding that thread. Still one of the best threads in the history of the Scoop, even though Trevor bailed.
You somehow missed the biggest stat of the night:
Box Score: Dayton 89, Marquette 75 (http://gomarquette.cstv.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2008-2009/mugame06.html#GAME.PLA)
BENCH POINTS..............1 2 - Total
Dayton Flyers................18 30 - 48
Marquette Golden Eagles...0 5 - 5
Marquette was beated by Dayton's bench. Seriously.
I think Flyer Foe is new around here.
Not to worry - this is my last post here this season unless we meet again in the NCAA Tournament in March - a possibility that the Flyer Faithful genuinely look forward to !
I have to admit that I'm disappointed with the AP Poll voters, keeping # 25 Marquette ahead of # 27 Dayton after a sound whoopin', but that's college basketball for you.
Bye guys, and best of luck during the rest of your season !