Multi-Year Expectations

[Henry Sugar]

Since hearing of the Three Amigos and their signing, I have I commonly thought of this team in a 3-4 year view of expectations.  Personally, this has really helped me with perspective after games where Marquette lays an egg or we get punched in the stomach by Jerry Smith.

Last year (2005-2006) - I expected the team to ultimately be an NIT team and to possibly make the NCAA's.  The team should have knocked off a ranked team or two and show improvement at the end of the season.
Justification - Senior leadership in Steve Novak and the trio of talented freshmen.
Results - Exceeds expectations.  The team finished fourth in the Big East and had many more marquee victories than expected.

This year (2006-2007) - I expected the team to spend most of the season ranked around 15-25.  If things with seeding shake out, a sweet sixteen run is possible but a win on the first day of the tournament is expected.  This team should be more competitive than the previous year, but will still lose a clunker game or two.
Justification - Improvement from the three amigos but a loss of senior leadership means for some better performances but increased volatility of results.
Results - Mostly TBD, but probably in line for meets expectations.  The volatility has been a little more than I thought.

Next year (2007-2008) - I expect the team to spend most of the season ranked 15 or higher.  The team should compete for the Big East title.  For the tournament, the team should definitely make the sweet sixteen and a shot at the Final Four is possible if things break right.
Justification - Senior leadership from Ouse and Fitz, plus experience from the three amigos and contributions from Burke/Hayward.  This is the window of opportunity for the team.  There are no drop-off expectations if DJ leaves the team, and I expect nothing from any of the freshmen for contributions

2008-2009 - This is the benchmark year for me that defines where MU is as a program.  The key is for the team to spend much of the year ranked at any level of the top 25, which will mean that we are evolving to the point where MU is a program that can sustain a level of excellence instead of peaking every few years with a core recruiting class.
Justification - Senior leadership from whichever of the amigos is still around (+ Burke) and contributions from Mbakwe, Christopherson, and our Freshmen.

Since I have no intentions of jumping off the bandwagon... ever <cough>, thinking long-term really helps me.  I'm curious if these expectations are roughly in line with other people's expectations for the next few years.  Thoughts?

[ecompt]

The only problem I have with your thinking (and I respect your opinion) is that if you have not expecting anything from out freshmen next year, then I don't see how we can be any better. I think if Trevor doesn't play 25 minutes a game next year we'll be the same as we are now. Jerel is an explosive talent but he all of a sudden isn't going to play under control. DJ (if he's back, and I don't think he will be) is not going to become a good shooter, and we will still have no inside men if Ooze gets in foul trouble. I think the freshmen have to play significant minutes for us to improve next year.

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

For the record, I didn't think we had a chance in hell of making the NCAA last year, but we did. I expected this year's team to be worse than it has been because of the complete lack of a consistent offensive threat. I think both teams have overachieved. That is a positive reflection of Crean's coaching and a very negative assessment of his recruiting. His recruiting is staggeringly overrated.

[Henry Sugar]

I just don't see how expecting Mbakwe to play 25 min a game and contribute is a reasonable view.  He'll be a freshman big man and may contribute in spots.  I know that some folks are very high on Trevor (like Mark Miller), but I expect inconsistency.

For bigs, we'll still have Ouse, Fitz, Hayward, and Burke.  It's small, but that's pretty much our lineup now.  We'll have a solid offseason with Hayward and the senior years for Ouse and Fitz.  Plus, Burke will have his junior year to turn the proverbial corner.

[downtown85]

Good post, Henry.  

regarding 2007-2008.  I think you are right on but I think that Trevor will play between 15-20 minutes per game.  He could average 6pts and 4-6 rebounds per game.  I think that by the end of the season he should be contributing significantly to the team.  I have no expectations for Christopherson, Saunders or Hazel.  However, if any of them can shoot, they will get playing time.  

I also think Lazar will start to be a threat from outside as well.  I think is lack of outside shooting this year is more mental than anything.  He will get over that and be a really good scoring contributor both inside and on the wing.

regarding 2008-2009, I think that it really depends on who we get as freshman recruits.  It is too early to tell in my book but if we get a couple more 4-star or 5-star guys then it could be the next loaded recruiting class and we can do quite a lot of damage by the end of the season.  At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I think we need a serious 6'10" monster who can patrol the paint.  However, big men usually take longer to develop so unless we score a ready made big man, a la Durant or Oden, I see us facing some problems after Barro graduates.  Yes, I agree it is a watershed year.  If we can stay consistently ranked that year, Crean is really on to something.

the problem is that UConn, L'ville, Georgetown, Syracuse and Pitt have all had good recruiting classes join them this year and next.  They will all be that much better and harder to beat.  That is what I like about the Big East, you have to run just to stand still.  

I think that many fans' (not yours) inter-seasonal expectations have actually been too low (particularly when it comes to recruiting).  They are coming from a CUSA/MEAC conference mentality and have not yet adjusted to the big east.  I have said it before on here, we need 2 top-100 recruits and 1 project per year on average to stay in the upper tier of the big east.  Again, that makes 2008 an important year.  We need some seriously good recruits to come in to keep the average up.  

[Harrison]

A couple of issues...

1.  Burke has improved greatly from year 1 to year 2.  If he can continue to improve at the same rate he can be that power 4 we need for certain matchups.  The lack of a true power 4 has killed us in our last 3 games.  As Lazar nor Fitz can guard the 6'8" power 4's we have faced.  Not saying he will be a stud but if he can improve at the same rate he has in the past year he can be useful.  Or if Mbakwe can help in that spot,... defend and control the glass we will be much improved at the 4 spot against the bigger teams.

2.  The comment on being at the same level next year even if DJ leaves is absolutely ludicrous, and honestly sad.  The DJ bashing is just pathetic.  I heard some loser at the game screaming at James because he missed his Free Throw saying, "If %$@ing James had hit his 1st free throw we would not have lost"!!   I said " If he makes them both we still lose",  to which he mumbled something and walked off.  No comment on the Jerel or Wesley Ft's or the Fitzgerald walk.   Hint....we are a .500 team this year without James ..warts and all.  Saying we are top 15 without him shows a complete lack of basketball knowledge.  Cubillan hits the open threes at times but is incapable of creating much offensively, or are you expecting Acker to be equal to or better than James?  This is based on what you have seen of him? 

[Big Papi]

The only problem I have with your thinking (and I respect your opinion) is that if you have not expecting anything from out freshmen next year, then I don't see how we can be any better. I think if Trevor doesn't play 25 minutes a game next year we'll be the same as we are now. Jerel is an explosive talent but he all of a sudden isn't going to play under control. DJ (if he's back, and I don't think he will be) is not going to become a good shooter, and we will still have no inside men if Ooze gets in foul trouble. I think the freshmen have to play significant minutes for us to improve next year.

You have to expect some improvement from all of the returning players.  I think Jerel has made a lot of improvements from his freshmen to soph year and I do expect his turnovers to decrease and for him to play more under control.  That Cincy game last year where Hicks single handily swatted away at least 5 of McNeal's drives shows how much he has improved.  He will improve some more.  DJ's might or might not become a better shooter but he does have the capability.  I think he struggles more with decision making on what is or is not a good shot for him.  More experience and better talent around him might open up his game some more.  And I also believe that Burke has made some good strides from last year and will continue to get better.  Add in 3 active freshmen with Mbakwe being the best and our depth at the 4/5 will be better next year.  I don't think the freshmen need to play a lot of minutes but I do expect Mbakwe to be getting minutes similar to what Hayward is getting this year.  He is such a great shot blocker that we will see balls swatted left and right when he is in the game.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

The only problem I have with your thinking (and I respect your opinion) is that if you have not expecting anything from out freshmen next year, then I don't see how we can be any better. I think if Trevor doesn't play 25 minutes a game next year we'll be the same as we are now. Jerel is an explosive talent but he all of a sudden isn't going to play under control. DJ (if he's back, and I don't think he will be) is not going to become a good shooter, and we will still have no inside men if Ooze gets in foul trouble. I think the freshmen have to play significant minutes for us to improve next year.

I disagree completely here. I think McNeal, Wes and Ooz all have very high ceilings, and I think we are just scratching the surface with Burke and Hayward.

I think DJ and Dan might be about the same (which is good). DJ reminds me a little bit of Chris Thomas (of ND fame). He's VERY good (borderline great), but may never reach the expectations that the media, fans, NBA scouts, etc. put on him. Let's just enjoy him for all of the talent that he has, not the talents that he doesn't have.

Oooz is WAY better than last year, and if he can continue a resonable amount of development for next year he will be very productive. (10pts 8rbs)

Wes has the biggest upside in my opinion because I think he has all of the physical tools, he just needs to keep playing to get better. He goes to the rim with authority, he's a good rebounder, he's a good defender (sometimes great), a good FT shooter, a solid mid-range shooter, and an OK 3pt shooter.

I would say just more playing will help Wes round out his game. He has size, "Sneaky quickness", and is a tough match-up. The problem for him is consistancy and picking his spots to assert himself. He needs to keep playing to develop, I don't see any major holes in his abilities.

McNeal kind of is what he is. He is a "foot to the floor" kind of guy who is going to drive his own fans crazy, but also drive other teams crazy.

He reminds me a little bit of Dwyane as a soph. because Dwyane was out of control often and tried to force a lot of things.

I'm not sure if McNeal can ever develop the body control, vision, and feel for the game that DW3 has, but he can get better in these areas and become a very effective college guard.

The other players are all going to be role players, but I think there is some good talent in there. Fitz, Burke, Mbawke, Cooby snacks, Acker are a pretty experienced and nice bench group to have.

If you can't tell by now, I'm VERY excited for the next 2.5 years. I'm dissapointed in this past week, but I'm hoping it's part of the growing process for the team and that they are learning about brining they're "A" game every night.

EVERYBODY, hang in there... this team is good... I promise!

[MUCHI814]

Two things, I could not agree more with the Chris Thomas statement, I've been thinking that all year, which worries me and makes me think that DJ will be gone after this year possibly.  Second, we can;t forget Cubillan's development.

[Mayor McCheese]

although this may be thinking highly of this team next year, however if everyone stays, I think this could possibly be a top-10 to top-5 team.  Another year for Ooze and Fitz to get better.... a year for James(should he stay), McNeal and Matthews to settle down, and realize everything doesnt have to go 150mph(I think that a lot while watching games this year, slow down a bit, and everything goes smoothly).  A year for Hayward and Cube to lose this nervousness being a freshman, getting their shot together, and with teh freshman coming in, I can see this team being a top 5 team, also winning the Maui Invitational to start the year(maybe this is very optimistic)

[AlumKCof93]

I've often thought of Chris Thomas when watching DJ.  That is not a compliment to DJ b/c when I think of Thomas I think of a player who only wanted to win if he played a major role in the victory.  Now, DJ is not like that in every game.  But he has played like that in several of our losses, most notably Wisconsin and G-Town.  I think that's where his criticism comes from and its not fair b/c it undervalues the rest of his game.

[CTWarrior]

Going into the 2005-6 season, I was just hoping we'd make the Big East tournament and the NIT.  I never quite believe the hype of freshman until I can see them play for myself, and when they're all guards I figured our frot line was going to get bashed in t he Big East.  Besides, the holdovers other than Novak were all question marks and we hadn't been very good the previous two seasons either.  I was immensely thrilled with last season.

As for this year, I figured we'd about the same as last year, figuring the maturation of the sophs would make up for the loss of Novak.  The sophs haven't improved as much as I had hoped, and while Hayward is having a nice freshman campaign, he is not as good as I had hoped.  On the other hand Barro (until the last two games) and Fitz are playing much better than I anticipated and we are roughly on track to match last year, with a little luck a little better.

As for next year, I'm in agreement with whoever said that if some of the freshmen don't give serious minutes with some inside presence, we'll only make a marginal improvement over this year.  Figure finish the season ranked between 12 and 20.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

I've often thought of Chris Thomas when watching DJ.  That is not a compliment to DJ b/c when I think of Thomas I think of a player who only wanted to win if he played a major role in the victory.  Now, DJ is not like that in every game.  But he has played like that in several of our losses, most notably Wisconsin and G-Town.  I think that's where his criticism comes from and its not fair b/c it undervalues the rest of his game.

I have to admit that I don't have a lot of fuzzy feelings about Chris Thomas either. I just remember Dickie V and every other broadcaster drooling over him as a frosh... and then having him just be "another good point guard"... basically having the same production over his 4 years. Nobody was drooling over him as a senior.

BUT, I also have to admit that he was pretty freaking good all 4 years, and maybe the hype is skewing how we all look at him.

I hope DJ becomes better than Thomas, but even if he has a career similar to Thomas' (i.e. roughly the same player for 4 years), we still will be in pretty good shape.

Again, I'm going to enjoy him for what he is, not for what he isn't (although I think his shot selection needs some improvement).

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

As for next year, I'm in agreement with whoever said that if some of the freshmen don't give serious minutes with some inside presence, we'll only make a marginal improvement over this year.  Figure finish the season ranked between 12 and 20.

I just don't get how people can't see how next years team could be dynamite. Look at WI... they were not very good last year... but they went through some adversity and returned all of their key players. Now they are in line for a #1 seed. I don't think you can credit the Frosh. for the improvement on that team. I think you can just credit all of the players playing better (and being eligible)

MU could be the same thing next year. All of the players will come back better, the bench will be deeper, and they will have more experience under their belts.

Obviously some players have ceilings on how good they can be... I just don't think any of the MU players have hit theirs yet.

[Henry Sugar]

regarding 2007-2008.  I think you are right on but I think that Trevor will play between 15-20 minutes per game.  He could average 6pts and 4-6 rebounds per game.  I think that by the end of the season he should be contributing significantly to the team.  I have no expectations for Christopherson, Saunders or Hazel.  However, if any of them can shoot, they will get playing time. 

I think that this is probably a more accurate reflection of my expectations for the freshmen next year.  I agree on all counts above and do want to see some production and role play out of Mbakwe.

[Henry Sugar]

A couple of issues...

1.  Burke has improved greatly from year 1 to year 2.  If he can continue to improve at the same rate he can be that power 4 we need for certain matchups.  The lack of a true power 4 has killed us in our last 3 games.  As Lazar nor Fitz can guard the 6'8" power 4's we have faced.  Not saying he will be a stud but if he can improve at the same rate he has in the past year he can be useful.  Or if Mbakwe can help in that spot,... defend and control the glass we will be much improved at the 4 spot against the bigger teams.

Firmly agree here and do expect production out of Burke

2.  The comment on being at the same level next year even if DJ leaves is absolutely ludicrous, and honestly sad.  The DJ bashing is just pathetic.  I heard some loser at the game screaming at James because he missed his Free Throw saying, "If %$@ing James had hit his 1st free throw we would not have lost"!!   I said " If he makes them both we still lose",  to which he mumbled something and walked off.  No comment on the Jerel or Wesley Ft's or the Fitzgerald walk.   Hint....we are a .500 team this year without James ..warts and all.  Saying we are top 15 without him shows a complete lack of basketball knowledge.  Cubillan hits the open threes at times but is incapable of creating much offensively, or are you expecting Acker to be equal to or better than James?  This is based on what you have seen of him? 

Easy there, killer.  No need to get hostile on this one, although I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that your frustration is general rather than specific towards me.  I agree that the James bashing is largely unwarranted and I am a fan of his play.   I furthermore believe that he will be back next year.

My only point here is that I still expect the team to perform well next year based on all of the other components.  Better said, I am not willing to throw my hands up in the air and shriek with horror should he depart for the NBA.  Hayward, McNeal, Fitz, Barro, Matthews, Cubillan, Burke, Acker, Mbakwe... makes for a decent, experienced team that can still handle the ball. 

[WashDCWarrior]

James coming back is the difference between us going into next season ranked #12 and #25.  A huge benefit if he returns, but still a good team if he doesn't.

[The Lens]

I think if Trevor doesn't play 25 minutes a game next year we'll be the same as we are now.

The current players won't exist in a vacuum they will all improve.

Look at UW.  Experience is a precious commodity in the NCAA.

[IAmMarquette]

IIRC, wasn't Thomas a much better shooter than DJ?

[mu_hilltopper]

Every time seniors graduate, I think about how we replace their production .. how ever will we recover?  The answer is that returning players get X% better, plus new players.

DJ is close to his ceiling.  Besides shooting, he's maybe going to "improve" his game 5%.

Wes & Jerel- Hasn't reached their ceilings.  McNeal will get 10% better, next year, he'll turn the ball over 1-2 fewer times, and score 1-2 more buckets.  Wes will add a couple more buckets/game.

Fitz - 1% better .. he just needs more attempts.

Ooze - 5% better .. maybe.  He may have maxed out already.  But he'll still have a number of double-double games, and that's quality.

Cube - 10% better, fewer turnovers, more points

Mo - I think he's the wildcard.  I think he's going to be really good .. and if DJ leaves, Mo is going to do really well.  Supposedly, he's been called the best 3 point shooter on the team in practice.  

In all honesty, I don't think we'll suffer tremendously if DJ leaves.  While he's had X great games, he's also had a bunch of poor games.  Whoever takes his minutes won't have as many great games, but probably won't have as many poor games, and it'll average out.

Plus, if what Murff says is true, that DJ declared his intentions at the beginning of the season, I believe that may explain our up and down chemistry .. it'd be nice not to have that kind of issue next year.

[Harrison]

I absolutely disagree.  How many assists does Cubes get a game?  How many times has he penetrated into the lane and scored or dished off for an assist.  He shoots the 3 a few times a game and makes a decent percentage.  But we are .500 with out DJ, people focus on his numbers too much and discount the other things he brings to the team. 
While I agree I think everyone will only be better and therefore the team will improve, we will take a major step backwards at the point if DJ is not with us.  We are a top 10 team and possibly higher with him, top 25 without.   As much bashing as the kid takes and as little credit as he is given I almost wish he would leave.   ??? 

[rocky_warrior]

Without DJ this year, we're not the same team.  I don't think many are expecting Cubillan to take over the primary PG roles though, that job is Acker's to lose if DJ leaves.  Acker was the MAC frosh of the year, and a hell of a PG.  His shooting was about the same level's on DJ's but he's been working on that a lot this year.

Really...I can't speculate how good or bad we'll be next year (especially when we've got a lot of Basketball yet to follow this year).  However, I do believe we'll be just as competitive next year as we are this year even if DJ does go to the NBA.  If he comes back, we should be better.

I don't think that saying that "DJ leaving doesn't hurt Marquette much" is a slam on James.  Rather, I think it shows a lot of confidence in Acker and that he'll be able to run the team very well with his experience in the MAC, and a year of practicing with MU under his belt. 

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

IIRC, wasn't Thomas a much better shooter than DJ?

Actually, Thomas wasn't a great shooter by his percentages. Thomas made a lot of 3's, but he also took a lot of 3's.

Thomas' Career Statistics                                    
                FG-FGA        PCT.   3FG-3FGA   3PCT.   FT-FTA     PCT.   AVG
TOTALS   582-1484   0.392   250-682      0.367    369-428 0.862   18.0



Also, I don't mean to directly compare their abilities, I'm making reference to all of the frosh. hype that Thomas received, and then the reletive non-hype he received for the remainder of his career.

I'm not a big fan of Thomas', but he was a solid PG who was overlooked because he was over-hyped.

I think DJ is awesome and better than Thomas for sure, but he might be suffering from some "over-hype" from the media and fans (similar to Thomas).

I honestly think most of DJ's shooting woes come from shot selection, not poor shooting. If/when he gets a little better feel for how teams are defending him, he will be better at finding space and finding good shots for himself and teammates.

[bartmiller#1]

McNeal's shooting has improved over the course of this season.  It should improve even more in the offseason.

If DJ goes pro, we'll know well in advance of next season-- shortly after the end of this season, and people will be able to adjust their roles accordingly. 

Cubillan doesn't drive and dish this year because it's not his role.  He's a shooter on this year's team. 

I agree that we will be much better next year with DJ.  However, I don't think we're done if he leaves.  We're in a position where we have a number of capable ballhandlers (though none, obviously, at DJ's level). 

FWIW, I have seen a lot of comparisons of Chris Thomas and DJ recently.  I don't buy it.  I think DJ is a much better all-around player.  Thomas was a better shooter, but DJ is only a sophomore and CAN improve. 

As for people saying DJ only wants to play well if he shows up big in the win-- I don't buy it-- I think it's more the viewer projecting his felings of DJ on to the game that's being viewed.  DJ plays hard in all of our games-- he makes some mistakes and takes some stupid shots-- but that's part of the game. 

I don't think he's selfish.  I don't think he's a problem.  He carries himself differently than his teammates, but that doesn't mean he's a head case.

I think McNeal will improve his jumper. 

Matthews needs to lead a little more and gain confidence, which will come with more time in the program. 

Barro needs to work on his post moves. 

Burke his defense. 

Etc.  All of these guys will get better.  There are only two guys on this year's team who didn't improve, and neither of them (Kinsella and Lott) ever showed the promise of any of the other players on the roster. 

I like your expectations and mine are mostly in line with yours. 

[AlumKCof93]

Thomas was a better shooter in that he would have great games where he couldn't miss.  He actually had one of those games against MU.  But he also had games where he couldn't make anything and he just forced them up.  By the time he was a senior, ND fans were ready to see him go b/c of they were so frustrated by his play.  DJ is not close to that, but you see hints of it from time to time.  I don't think he forced anything yesterday and he played very well.  One other thing, Thomas was not interested in playing any defense, another reason why comparison to DJ is not fair to James.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Thomas was a better shooter in that he would have great games where he couldn't miss.  He actually had one of those games against MU.  But he also had games where he couldn't make anything and he just forced them up.  By the time he was a senior, ND fans were ready to see him go b/c of they were so frustrated by his play.  DJ is not close to that, but you see hints of it from time to time.  I don't think he forced anything yesterday and he played very well.  One other thing, Thomas was not interested in playing any defense, another reason why comparison to DJ is not fair to James.

Agreed. I would take DJ 1000 times over Thomas. I was simply reffering to the the Frosh. hype, and then performance after.

I still think DJ is dynamite, but he might not be the second coming that everybody thought last year.

Chris Thomas was the next Jason Kidd... then he seemed to "fall off"... He was still very good... it's just that he didn't meet the lofty predictions of some media and fans.