Vote!

[Galway Eagle]

@RalstonReports: NEWS: First batch of new votes from NV, from Clark, shows Biden lead up to 12K.

Small gain for trump it's down to 11k

[forgetful]

I don't see any numbers suggesting he'll run out of runway in PA. I agree on GA. I just don't think there are enough votes left there.

In PA, there are 784K votes left with a deficit of 165K. 62% (486,080) to 38% (297,920) of the remaining vote would put Biden ahead by ~20K votes. He is hovering around 73% of the vote in every update.

My concern come from this dashboard.

https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx

Still a lot of votes to count in places like Cumberland County, which is a Trump stronghold. Also, Philly burbs where at best it's a push. So the question is whether Biden can keep running the margins.

[Uncle Rico]

My concern come from this dashboard.

https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx

Still a lot of votes to count in places like Cumberland County, which is a Trump stronghold. Also, Philly burbs where at best it's a push. So the question is whether Biden can keep running the margins.

Take into consideration the early/mail votes will still run 70% Biden, even from Trump strongholds.

[MUfan12]

Trump's lead in GA down to 14k.

[Pakuni]

My concern come from this dashboard.

https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx

Still a lot of votes to count in places like Cumberland County, which is a Trump stronghold. Also, Philly burbs where at best it's a push. So the question is whether Biden can keep running the margins.

From everything I'm hearing, there are still tens of thousands of votes to count in Philadelphia and perhaps as many as 30K in Alleghany (but they need to be reviewed, so who knows).

Trump does do well in Cumberland County, but are you assuming the mail-in ballots there are going to go against state trends (i.e. Dems do relatively better compared to in-person votes)?

As for the Philly burbs ... not a push. So far:
Chester County - Biden +51K votes
Delaware County - Biden +70K votes
Montgomery County - Biden +130K votes
Bucks County - Biden +6,500 votes
Lancaster County - Trump +44K votes
Berks County -  Trump +16K votes

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Slightly off topic, but I wonder what someone like Ann Richards would say about Trump.

Her and Bentsen campaigning around Texas if they were still alive would have been quite a sight to see.

[shoothoops]

Trump lead is 13,500 over Biden in Georgia with over 50k absentee votes left.

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1324411276269887495?s=19

This is a list of county by county. I know that Fulton County will have an additional few thousand or more provisional ballots added as well among others:

https://twitter.com/RichardFausset/status/1324362209745604608?s=19

[lawdog77]

Trump lead is 13,500 over Biden in Georgia with over 50k absentee votes left.

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1324411276269887495?s=19

This is a list of county by county. I know that Fulton County will have an additional few thousand or more provisional ballots added as well among others:

https://twitter.com/RichardFausset/status/1324362209745604608?s=19

military ballots as well, not sure how many there are

[Galway Eagle]

military ballots as well, not sure how many there are

Secretary of State implied that those were being counted in with absentee.

[shoothoops]

Secretary of State implied that those were being counted in with absentee.

Those are considered in addition to if you read the comment from the AJC first link in my post above.

GA Sec of State has been wrong a lot and it is always saying there are only xyz ballots left and it is always more.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

military ballots as well, not sure how many there are

Or which way they will break. Normally we would be pretty sure, but after the "suckers and losers" comments its not so clear this year.

[shoothoops]

For what it's worth, one Pennsylvania Senator believes Biden will win by around 100k votes, and the other, with a larger consensus says Biden will win Pennsylvania by about 175k votes. They said this within the half hour

[Pakuni]

Or which way they will break. Normally we would be pretty sure, but after the "suckers and losers" comments its not so clear this year.

A poll of active duty members by Military Times in August showed 41 percent to 37 percent in favor of Biden. This was before "Suckers and losers."

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/08/31/as-trumps-popularity-slips-in-latest-military-times-poll-more-troops-say-theyll-vote-for-biden/

[dgies9156]

So we've often heard the line about "there are bad people on both sides" very often. Most often from conservatives trying to minimize actions taken by far right extremists.

Honest question, I promise I'm not being snarky, are there any liberal leaning groups out there demanding to stop the count in places where Biden is winning? The fact that there are people demanding that legally cast votes not be counted so their candidate can win is terrifying to me. I understand we can disagree on a lot of key issues but I thought the democratic process was something both sides firmly endorsed.

Brother TAMU:

1) Why would you stop the count when you're benefitting from every newly counted vote?

2) Nobody -- except maybe hard cores -- want to stop counting legally cast ballots. That's why I say what I say about credible evidence of misbehavior or of election violation. I don't think there is any. If there's not, keep counting.

Brother Hoops:

I get you don't like Trump's record. There's things I find about it that are sad and in some cases sick. But I would note that regardless of what happens, 100,000 more votes in the right places and we don't have a "controversy" and Donald Trump is re-elected. There's a lot of people that see enough in him who aren't right wing nutcases, reactionary anarchists, hoodlums etc., and voted for him. You can't ignore that or the consideration it requires in the legislative process.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Take into consideration the early/mail votes will still run 70% Biden, even from Trump strongholds.

I saw this exactly reported last night.  Even in major Trump vote counties, the absentee ballots were favoring Biden at the 70%+ rate.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

A poll of active duty members by Military Times in August showed 41 percent to 37 percent in favor of Biden. This was before "Suckers and losers."

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/08/31/as-trumps-popularity-slips-in-latest-military-times-poll-more-troops-say-theyll-vote-for-biden/

Yeah, family members in the military told me that the idea of the military being hard core Republicans is largely false.  (Mostly because the military is quite diverse.)

[Hards Alumni]

Brother TAMU:

1) Why would you stop the count when you're benefitting from every newly counted vote?

2) Nobody -- except maybe hard cores -- want to stop counting legally cast ballots. That's why I say what I say about credible evidence of misbehavior or of election violation. I don't think there is any. If there's not, keep counting.

Brother Hoops:

I get you don't like Trump's record. There's things I find about it that are sad and in some cases sick. But I would note that regardless of what happens, 100,000 more votes in the right places and we don't have a "controversy" and Donald Trump is re-elected. There's a lot of people that see enough in him who aren't right wing nutcases, reactionary anarchists, hoodlums etc., and voted for him. You can't ignore that or the consideration it requires in the legislative process.

While we differ ideologically, I respect your opinions.  Thanks for being cool.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Brother TAMU:

1) Why would you stop the count when you're benefitting from every newly counted vote?

I think Arizona goes against this assumption.

2) Nobody -- except maybe hard cores -- want to stop counting legally cast ballots. That's why I say what I say about credible evidence of misbehavior or of election violation. I don't think there is any. If there's not, keep counting.

I wasn't suggesting anyone besides the hard cores want to stop counting votes. But I was genuinely curious if there was evidence of liberal "hard cores" trying to disrupt the democratic process or asking that the democratic process be disrupted.

[Galway Eagle]

Brother TAMU:

1) Why would you stop the count when you're benefitting from every newly counted vote?

2) Nobody -- except maybe hard cores -- want to stop counting legally cast ballots. That's why I say what I say about credible evidence of misbehavior or of election violation. I don't think there is any. If there's not, keep counting.

Brother Hoops:

I get you don't like Trump's record. There's things I find about it that are sad and in some cases sick. But I would note that regardless of what happens, 100,000 more votes in the right places and we don't have a "controversy" and Donald Trump is re-elected. There's a lot of people that see enough in him who aren't right wing nutcases, reactionary anarchists, hoodlums etc., and voted for him. You can't ignore that or the consideration it requires in the legislative process.

To be fair 100k in the right places as trumps never even president in the first place. It breaks both ways.

[Pakuni]

According to Pennsylvania Sec of State:

About 550K ballots remain. Most should be counted today.
About 100K are in Philly, with another 10-40K in each of the collar counties.
About 37K in Alleghany County.

Because of legal challenges, late-arriving ballots are being segregated in the event they're thrown out. But based on trends, they're not expecting those ballots to decide the race either way.

[shoothoops]

Brother TAMU:

1) Why would you stop the count when you're benefitting from every newly counted vote?

2) Nobody -- except maybe hard cores -- want to stop counting legally cast ballots. That's why I say what I say about credible evidence of misbehavior or of election violation. I don't think there is any. If there's not, keep counting.

Brother Hoops:

I get you don't like Trump's record. There's things I find about it that are sad and in some cases sick. But I would note that regardless of what happens, 100,000 more votes in the right places and we don't have a "controversy" and Donald Trump is re-elected. There's a lot of people that see enough in him who aren't right wing nutcases, reactionary anarchists, hoodlums etc., and voted for him. You can't ignore that or the consideration it requires in the legislative process.

I can't speak for TAMU but he is referencing the actions of Trump etc and stopping counts here and not doing it there. Zero integrity.

As for me, I 100% acknowledge that Trump is getting millions and millions of votes. That doesn't make it good or okay to me. It means that you and whomever votes for him enables and condones all of those things. Example, the wealthy individual or corporation that is more concerned with tax cuts and deregulation first. Yes, I think very poorly of these people, and some (some not) of those both 1% and regular people are in my family and friends etc...

I like making money, stocks, and so on like many other people, but some things come first.

By definition, malignant narcissists don't have an ideology. They are chameleons that constantly change adding and dropping people after getting what they want.

But words matter, actions matter, policy matters, truth matters, hate matters and on and on. Trump is far from Conservative as you know.

But it's the politicians, business people, voters, that enable and condone and encourage for their own interests and personal gain.

I'm far from perfect, but maybe begin with a basic set of standards.

It's pretty simple, all of those things I mentioned and more don't matter as much to his voters and enablers than their own $ and personal gain. Raise the Bar.

We can sit here and debate and disagree about policies, beliefs etc ....but we are nowhere near that point. It's not okay to lie tens of thousands of times, to not do the work, to be Racist, Mysogonistic, a Xenophobe. It's basic respect for people.

Gotta get to that first. Until then the Trumps McConnell's and so on gotta go for me.

I am well aware 40 plus percent of people do not care about these things. I am not in that group. Too many people act like it is a game. Separating kids from parents for kicks and then losing them. PTSD for life right there. Sure let's vote for that because maybe someone is anti abortion or insert reason here. I would say pro life but these people are not pro life.

But I calmly, matter of factly digress. Back to the voting numbers. I am pretty consistent about one thing, ask yourself is this fair? Basic fairness isn't much to ask.

[Pakuni]

These fu*king people ...

David Corn @DavidCornDC
The Trump family is now calling on GOP-controlled state legislatures to nullify the actual vote and push for Trump electors. This is a dangerous moment.

https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1324415365439463424

[wadesworld]

So based on how Trump's campaign is acting, would this race have been called by now if it was any other incumbent basically in the history of the country?  I mean, if you think there's still a chance you win the election it doesn't seem like you'd act the way Trump's campaign is.

[dgies9156]

To be fair 100k in the right places as trumps never even president in the first place. It breaks both ways.

Very true :-).

But my point in bringing this out is that he has a sizeable constituency, not all of whom are deplorables.

[Billy Hoyle]

I can't speak for TAMU but he is referencing the actions of Trump etc and stopping counts here and not doing it there. Zero integrity.

As for me, I 100% acknowledge that Trump is getting millions and millions of votes. That doesn't make it good or okay to me. It means that you and whomever votes for him enables and condones all of those things. Example, the wealthy individual or corporation that is more concerned with tax cuts and deregulation first. Yes, I think very poorly of these people, and some (some not) of those both 1% and regular people are in my family and friends etc...

By definition, malignant narcissists don't have an ideology. They are chameleons that constantly change adding and dropping people after getting what they want.

But words matter, actions matter, policy matters, truth matters, hate matters and on and on. Trump is far from Conservative as you know.

But it's the politicians, business people, voters, that enable and condone and encourage for their own interests and personal gain.

I'm far from perfect, but maybe begin with a basic set of standards.

It's pretty simple, all of those things I mentioned and more don't matter as much to his voters and enablers than their own $ and personal gain. Raise the Bar.

We can sit here and debate and disagree about policies, beliefs etc ....but we are nowhere near that point. It's not okay to lie tens of thousands of times, to not do the work, to be Racist, Mysogonistic, a Xenophobe. It's basic respect for people.

Gotta get to that first. Until then the Trumps McConnell's and so on gotta go for me.

I am well aware 40 plus percent of people do not care about these things. I am not in that group. Too many people act like it is a game. Separating kids from parents for kicks and then losing them. PTSD for life right there. Sure let's vote for that because maybe someone is anti abortion or insert reason here. I would say pro life but these people are not pro life.

But I calmly, matter of factly digress. Back to the voting numbers. I am pretty consistent about one thing, ask yourself is this fair? Basic fairness isn't much to ask.

my sister is a now-former teacher (taking this year off due to COVID) and her kids are unable to go back to school. She asked my parents why were so gung ho about Trump (my mom flew a flag) and the answers they had were "look at our retirement" and "no more political correctness." My dad lectured my 16-year-old nephew as to why he needed to take down "in this house..." sign my sister put up. Socialism was also brought up. Granted, this is just anecdotal evidence of one couple, but these are retired, highly educated, and successful suburbanites. They occasionally go to a nondenominational church, are pro-choice having worked in the medical field but are full time Fox News viewers and listen to Limbaugh and local right wing radio.

I don't think they are that far off from many Trump voters.