Vote!

[TSmith34, Inc.]

AZ and GA are both going to be razor thin, I wouldn't be surprised if both end up under a 10K difference. I think PA will by Biden by 80,000+ which would make the other two moot.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I heard tonight, yesterday was the largest voter turnout since the 1900 election.

[forgetful]

AZ and GA are both going to be razor thin, I wouldn't be surprised if both end up under a 10K difference. I think PA will by Biden by 80,000+ which would make the other two moot.

This is my thinking also. For PA, the outstanding votes are all mail in. In PA, those have consistently went Biden by close to a 4-1 margin. That would be more than enough. It is trending like Michigan, where a seemingly huge margin was not only overcome, but blown away.

Georgia and Arizona is going to be close.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Good read from The Atlantic.  April 2020

What Joe Biden Can’t Bring Himself to Say
His verbal stumbles have voters worried about his mental fitness. Maybe they’d be more understanding if they knew he’s still fighting a stutter.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/01/joe-biden-stutter-profile/602401/

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

If I were to pick a northeast+ republican gov that would be accepted by the broader country for president, I would go Sununu.

Back in the early 90s just after HW Bush lost, my friend and I were on  prop flight from White Plains to DC.  His dad was on our flight crunched into a seat with a briefcase wedged in there somehow too.  We remarked how he"s probably missing Air Force One.

[Jables1604]

Back in the early 90s just after HW Bush lost, my friend and I were on  prop flight from White Plains to DC.  His dad was on our flight crunched into a seat with a briefcase wedged in there somehow too.  We remarked how he"s probably missing Air Force One.

Either speaker at my MU graduation (1990) or received an honorary degree. As you can tell I was in no shape to remember which one.

[Pakuni]

This is my thinking also. For PA, the outstanding votes are all mail in. In PA, those have consistently went Biden by close to a 4-1 margin. That would be more than enough. It is trending like Michigan, where a seemingly huge margin was not only overcome, but blown away.

Georgia and Arizona is going to be close.

From what's been reported, Biden has won the last 600,000 Pennsylvania votes by 50 points. He needs what's left by 22 points to win the state. So, the trend is there, but we'll see.

[Pakuni]

418K ballots remain in Arizona. Biden up 79,173 votes.

340k left in Maricopa County (currently Biden +5, but tightening)
46k in Pima County (Biden +21)
18k in Yuma County (Trump +8)
<1k in La Paz County (Trump +37)
13k in Coconino County ( Biden +28)

Still winnable for Trump, but tough. Would need nearly 60 percent of what remains, and most of what remains are in blue/purple counties.

[forgetful]

418K ballots remain in Arizona. Biden up 79,173 votes.

340k left in Maricopa County (currently Biden +5, but tightening)
46k in Pima County (Biden +21)
18k in Yuma County (Trump +8)
<1k in La Paz County (Trump +37)
13k in Coconino County ( Biden +28)

Still winnable for Trump, but tough. Would need nearly 60 percent of what remains, and most of what remains are in blue/purple counties.

One of the reasons I've worried about Arizona is that a lot are using the bolded logic in making the call earlier. That in combination with them being "mail in" votes.

I think these are different than the rest of the places. I think these are last minute GOP "get out the vote" canvassing mail in votes, when the GOP really started to worry they didn't have the numbers. Because of that they won't necessarily follow the county current totals. Essentially, the opposite of the DEM early early votes in PA and Michigan.

[shoothoops]

Biden needs to win the remaining 800k Pennsylvania votes by a 22% margin. He has won the most recent 600k votes by a 40% margin.

[Tortuga94]

Fox News and AP have declared Biden the winner in AZ. I think it will be tough for Trump to pull ahead there.
Biden Just needs NV and then PA, GA and NC don't matter.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

One of the reasons I've worried about Arizona is that a lot are using the bolded logic in making the call earlier. That in combination with them being "mail in" votes.

I think these are different than the rest of the places. I think these are last minute GOP "get out the vote" canvassing mail in votes, when the GOP really started to worry they didn't have the numbers. Because of that they won't necessarily follow the county current totals. Essentially, the opposite of the DEM early early votes in PA and Michigan.

Agree. If they rest of the outstanding votes go as the first batch, Trump probably wins. Pima is more Democratic than Maricopa, though, so if those votes are < 60% for Trump, then Maricopa will need to go to Trump at a higher rate than the first batch, maybe 62%.

Hoping Biden pulls ahead in PA overnight and we don't have to worry about AZ.

I am becoming pessimistic about AZ at almost exactly the same rate as I am becoming optimistic about GA.

[Pakuni]

One of the reasons I've worried about Arizona is that a lot are using the bolded logic in making the call earlier. That in combination with them being "mail in" votes.

I think these are different than the rest of the places. I think these are last minute GOP "get out the vote" canvassing mail in votes, when the GOP really started to worry they didn't have the numbers. Because of that they won't necessarily follow the county current totals. Essentially, the opposite of the DEM early early votes in PA and Michigan.

I get what you're saying and you may very well be right. That said, the last vote dump in Maricopa tonight was 57-43 Trump. As good as that is for him, even if that trend continues, it's not enough, especially with the votes left in Pima and Coconino.
Trump can win, but it’s tough.

[shoothoops]

Fulton County batch update 10 minutes ago....

https://twitter.com/BrendanKeefe/status/1324187070198353920?s=19

[Tortuga94]

I doubt that Trump wins in AZ. The Latino(Mexican-American) vote showed up big in AZ. I would love it if Mexican Americans and loyal McCain voters cost Trump AZ and the general election. That would be fricking karma.

[Pakuni]

Good for the Steelers:

@PaulRRigney: At the Allegheny County ballot counting site here in Pittsburgh, I can report that the Pittsburgh Steelers are buying dinner for all the workers here this evening.

[Tortuga94]

Maybe I spoke too soon, not sure how Biden can win now.

https://twitter.com/RightWingWatch/status/1324175651515949056

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I get what you're saying and you may very well be right. That said, the last vote dump in Maricopa tonight was 57-43 Trump. As good as that is for him, even if that trend continues, it's not enough, especially with the votes left in Pima and Coconino.
Trump can win, but it’s tough.

Last batch was
43,966 Trump 59.18%
30,322 Biden 40.82%

[shoothoops]

Count the votes here, stop the counting there,... Fox news is great one day, chants of Fox News Sucks the next ....pick a lane, ...pick a lane:

https://twitter.com/KimPowellTV/status/1324185235743932419?s=19

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1324194510046289920?s=19

[Johnny B]

Maybe I spoke too soon, not sure how Biden can win now.

https://twitter.com/RightWingWatch/status/1324175651515949056

might as well try it all eh

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Count the votes here, stop the counting there,... Fox news is great one day, chants of Fox News Sucks the next ....pick a lane, ...pick a lane:

https://twitter.com/KimPowellTV/status/1324185235743932419?s=19

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1324194510046289920?s=19

Shameless hypocrisy is a Republican strong suit.

[shoothoops]

Shameless hypocrisy is a Republican strong suit.

I also have the side by side chants version:


https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1324200240694648834?s=19

[forgetful]

What is interesting about Pennsylvania, is it doesn't seem to matter what county the mail in votes are coming from. Biden is winning them 4:1 even in Trump counties.

Likely an artifact of focusing on getting out the in person vote. The only difference is the number of mail in votes, margin seems to be consistent.

[shoothoops]

Fulton County batch update 10 minutes ago....

https://twitter.com/BrendanKeefe/status/1324187070198353920?s=19

another Fulton County batch update:

https://twitter.com/brendankeefe/status/1324207280443793409

[GooooMarquette]

another Fulton County batch update:

https://twitter.com/brendankeefe/status/1324207280443793409

Getting closer every time they report new vote counts in Georgia...