Vote!

[#UnleashSean]

Will trump give up the presidency now? The next couple months should be fun.

[wadesworld]

Well none of what happens today matters if the Dem's don't pull off the Senate.  Without the Senate, Biden is hamstrung with a tanked economy, covid, and general unrest.  Without the senate he can't fix any of this, and the Dems will get rolled in 2022 and 2024 could be a total blowout.

Lose by winning.

As long as they don't put someone in the same vein as Trump, I'll take the trade of avoiding 4 more years of Trump for losing the White House in 2024.

But I don't think it will play out as above.

[Pakuni]

Well none of what happens today matters if the Dem's don't pull off the Senate.  Without the Senate, Biden is hamstrung with a tanked economy, covid, and general unrest.  Without the senate he can't fix any of this, and the Dems will get rolled in 2022 and 2024 could be a total blowout.

Lose by winning.

I think that's an overly pessimistic outlook. You're likely to get a 52-48 or even 51-49 Senate. There are enough centrist-leaning Rs (Romney, Collins and Murawski, at least) that there will be room for compromise. The Senate isn't simply going to block everything for the next two years.

As for 2022 Senate races, there are 20 Rs and 12 Ds up for re-election. Very few are in swing states. Those potentially at risk are Republicans Johnson (Wis.), Toomey (Penn.), Burr (NC) and Democrats Masto (Nev.) and Hassan (NH).
Either way, hard to see any significant change in 2022 either way.

[shoothoops]

Another reason why the voting system needs to change and to be much easier moving forward. This is big and has possibly affected Senate races, President etc...look at these non delivered numbers.

https://twitter.com/johnkruzel/status/1324004554485211136?s=19

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Another reason why the voting system needs to change and to be much easier moving forward:

https://twitter.com/johnkruzel/status/1324004554485211136?s=19

Reason to doubt this is factual. 

https://www.vice.com/en/article/5dppad/why-the-post-offices-last-minute-ballot-crisis-isnt-as-dire-as-it-seems

[DegenerateDish]

This is what I was watching last night. It’s hard to fathom how Trump got up to -700. At some point, the money coming in should balance. Even if someone wanted to manipulate the market, that break even number should have been around -400. Could be just dumb money?

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

This is what I was watching last night. It’s hard to fathom how Trump got up to -700. At some point, the money coming in should balance. Even if someone wanted to manipulate the market, that break even number should have been around -400. Could be just dumb money?

I am going to generalize.  1. Drinking, 2. Sophistication of watching returns and 3. liquidity.

Also is this thing open to international participants?

[jesmu84]

Will trump give up the presidency now? The next couple months should be fun.

Yes he will.

I predict he runs again in 2024

[jesmu84]

I think that's an overly pessimistic outlook. You're likely to get a 52-48 or even 51-49 Senate. There are enough centrist-leaning Rs (Romney, Collins and Murawski, at least) that there will be room for compromise. The Senate isn't simply going to block everything for the next two years.

As for 2022 Senate races, there are 20 Rs and 12 Ds up for re-election. Very few are in swing states. Those potentially at risk are Republicans Johnson (Wis.), Toomey (Penn.), Burr (NC) and Democrats Masto (Nev.) and Hassan (NH).
Either way, hard to see any significant change in 2022 either way.

You have far more faith in senate GOP and mcconnell than I do.

[shoothoops]

Reason to doubt this is factual. 

https://www.vice.com/en/article/5dppad/why-the-post-offices-last-minute-ballot-crisis-isnt-as-dire-as-it-seems

That's interesting. We'll see. This is also from Aaron Gordon:

https://www.vice.com/amp/en/article/wx8ewq/usps-has-made-57-changes-to-mail-operations-since-louis-dejoy-took-over?__twitter_impression=true

[Pakuni]

 John Kruzel @johnkruzel
🚨BREAKING: New USPS data appears to show a failure to deliver mail ballots from voters across the country on Election Day. U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan will hold a noon hearing over USPS' non-compliance with his order yesterday to rush deliver all remaining mail ballots

https://twitter.com/johnkruzel/status/1324004554485211136

[shoothoops]

John Kruzel @johnkruzel
🚨BREAKING: New USPS data appears to show a failure to deliver mail ballots from voters across the country on Election Day. U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan will hold a noon hearing over USPS' non-compliance with his order yesterday to rush deliver all remaining mail ballots

https://twitter.com/johnkruzel/status/1324004554485211136

Check out my back and forth with Fluffy just above this for more info. Maybe also check out Aaron Gordon's twitter which is @A_W_Gordon as well.

[Pakuni]

According to data released on Wednesday, the United States Postal Service failed to deliver thousands of absentee ballots around the country before the cut-off times — and one of the worst failures occurred in South Florida, where 27 percent of mail-in votes may have never been received.

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/11/usps-failed-to-deliver-27-percent-of-mail-in-ballots-in-south-florida-report/#.X6LM4qK2mhk.twitter

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

According to data released on Wednesday, the United States Postal Service failed to deliver thousands of absentee ballots around the country before the cut-off times — and one of the worst failures occurred in South Florida, where 27 percent of mail-in votes may have never been received.

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/11/usps-failed-to-deliver-27-percent-of-mail-in-ballots-in-south-florida-report/#.X6LM4qK2mhk.twitter

Read the article I posted above.  There may be sound reason why the data is incomplete.

[Hards Alumni]

I think that's an overly pessimistic outlook. You're likely to get a 52-48 or even 51-49 Senate. There are enough centrist-leaning Rs (Romney, Collins and Murawski, at least) that there will be room for compromise. The Senate isn't simply going to block everything for the next two years.

As for 2022 Senate races, there are 20 Rs and 12 Ds up for re-election. Very few are in swing states. Those potentially at risk are Republicans Johnson (Wis.), Toomey (Penn.), Burr (NC) and Democrats Masto (Nev.) and Hassan (NH).
Either way, hard to see any significant change in 2022 either way.

Pessimistic, yes, but also realistic.

[MU82]

I think that's an overly pessimistic outlook. You're likely to get a 52-48 or even 51-49 Senate. There are enough centrist-leaning Rs (Romney, Collins and Murawski, at least) that there will be room for compromise. The Senate isn't simply going to block everything for the next two years.

As for 2022 Senate races, there are 20 Rs and 12 Ds up for re-election. Very few are in swing states. Those potentially at risk are Republicans Johnson (Wis.), Toomey (Penn.), Burr (NC) and Democrats Masto (Nev.) and Hassan (NH).
Either way, hard to see any significant change in 2022 either way.

Just a factual tidbit ... Burr already has announced he will not run for re-election, so that NC Senate seat figures to be totally up for grabs.

Had Cal Cunningham, the Dem challenger for the Senate seat held by Thom Tillis, not gotten caught sexting a couple months ago, he almost surely would have beaten Tillis last night. Cunningham's idiocy could cost the Dems the Senate. (At his closing rally Monday, Tillis really ripped Cunningham for adultery -- with Trump standing next to him, clapping.)

[Pakuni]

Pessimistic, yes, but also realistic.

Given the Senate seats up for election in 2022, why is it realistic to think the Ds are going to get crushed? Which seats do you see them losing?
Bennett (Colo.)
Blumenthal (Conn.)
Masto (Nev.)
Duckworth (Ill.)
Harris* (Calif.)
Hassan (NH)
Leahy (VT)
Murray (Wash.)
Schatz (Hawaii)
Schumer (NY)
Van Hollen (Md)
Wyden (Ore)

I get that mid-terms are almost always bad for the party that holds the White House, but I just don't see many vulnerable seats above.
On the other hand, more Republican seats are at stake in 2020, and more of them are in battleground states. Nothing indicates either side is going to get crushed, and certainly not the Ds.

What am I missing?

The Rs will almost certainly gain some House seats in 2022, but it would have to be a once-in-a-century swing to take control.

* Or her replacement

[MU82]

Just posted update on where things stand by the NYT:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/upshot/election-states-too-close-to-call.html?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20201104&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=headline&regi_id=108420427&segment_id=43491&user_id=d36dcf821462fdd16ec3636710a855fa

The upshot: Biden is in very good shape in Wisconsin and Nevada, and also is likely to win Michigan, which would bring him to 270 on the button -- assuming he really did win AZ. NYT says call giving AZ to Biden might have been a little premature.

[shoothoops]

This is a USPS explanation in court this morning:

[shoothoops]

Nationally, Biden has now received more votes for president than any other candidate in U.S. election history, with over 69.5 million. He leads Trump by roughly 3 million votes total, with millions more left to be counted.

If the current trend holds, Democrats will have won the popular vote in 7 of the last 8 presidential elections (1992, 1996, 2000, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020), despite not holding the White House for 12 of those years.

[forgetful]

Just posted update on where things stand by the NYT:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/upshot/election-states-too-close-to-call.html?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20201104&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=headline&regi_id=108420427&segment_id=43491&user_id=d36dcf821462fdd16ec3636710a855fa

The upshot: Biden is in very good shape in Wisconsin and Nevada, and also is likely to win Michigan, which would bring him to 270 on the button -- assuming he really did win AZ. NYT says call giving AZ to Biden might have been a little premature.

Biden will win Wisconsin and Michigan. Arizona is going to be close, I think when all is said and done, Trump wins Arizona. Over 400,000 votes outstanding, a lot from suburbs and rural areas. Many ballots arriving last minute. I think Trump wins enough of them to close the gap.

That leaves lawsuits in Pennsylvania as the likely decider. Looks like Biden might have the numbers to close the gap. Might also have the numbers in Georgia.

[shoothoops]

In Georgia, there are approx: 250,000 votes left to be counted. They are in heavy Biden areas. Biden needs to win 70% of them to win Georgia. He has a decent chance to do that.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

If anything, it looks like Trump may have underperformed compared to the Senate and House.  More analysis is needed but not only is the Senate going to stay solidly red, but Rs picked up seats in the House.

[shoothoops]

If you had Sharpie Gate on your Bingo Card...spoiler alert it isn't true:

https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1324045463973203969?s=19

[Pakuni]

Trump: Stop counting in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan!
Also Trump: Keep counting in Arizona!
Also also Trump: Count everything in Wisconsin again!

(Note: If Trump is entitled to a recount in Wisconsin, he absolutely should get one. Just noting the mixed messages).