Vote!

[MUfan12]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-30/biden-aides-see-warning-signs-in-black-latino-turnout-so-far?sref=dCXr1Xoe

I think the swing in the burbs will be enough to offset any issues there, but who knows.

[muguru]

Actually...Florida numbers at the moment heavily favor Biden. While there is only a 2-point gap in registered D vs R ballots, Dems are breaking 94-4 for Biden while Republicans are just 85-13 for Trump. Independents are also going 60-24 for Biden, which would come out to a 17-point edge for Biden in Florida based on what's in so far. Nate Silver had a good tweet on this today.

That said, it's inferring polls and assuming votes will mirror them, but based on respective party support, things look very positive for Biden. That Donald Trump is spending resources to protect Georgia and Texas while pulling ads out of Wisconsin and Florida seems to indicate a very narrow path for Trump. They need all the toss-up states (Florida, NC, Georgia, Ohio, Iowa) while also pulling Pennsylvania to stay in the fight. If Trump pulls it out, he likely needs all 5 of Nebraska's votes and to come out of Maine with something.

I mean you could be right, but the numbers don't lie...look at the interactive map I linked. Dems are NOT performing nearly as well in heavy Dem areas(specifically Miami-dade) that they typically do. Dems are very concerned about it..It was on CNN this morning and there's also this article from Politico...https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/29/miami-voter-turnout-democrats-433643

Also, most of you democrats will scream that "they are heavily biased" but if you look at Trafalgar polls(only one that got the national race right last year), trump is up or right there in the states you listed. The polls were wrong in 2016, they will be wrong again. They don't capture the "hidden Trump voter" Trafalgar feels they do. Not to mention many Repubs lie to pollsters. We'll find out sometime in November(since it's apparently okay for PA to count votes several days after the election)

[tower912]

plausible deniability eyn'a?

  all they gotta do is ask.  our media trets it like don't ask, don't tell.  they won't even ask uncle joe.  "journalistic standards" are gone.  they reported for 3 years, hell, they still report on an unverified dossier.  once they found out DNC and hrc paid for it, they ran like hell.  just ask that schiff faced senator from california

Thanks, rocket.  I laughed. 

[Hards Alumni]

I mean you could be right, but the numbers don't lie...look at the interactive map I linked. Dems are NOT performing nearly as well in heavy Dem areas(specifically Miami-dade) that they typically do. Dems are very concerned about it..It was on CNN this morning and there's also this article from Politico...https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/29/miami-voter-turnout-democrats-433643

Also, most of you democrats will scream that "they are heavily biased" but if you look at Trafalgar polls(only one that got the national race right last year), trump is up or right there in the states you listed. The polls were wrong in 2016, they will be wrong again. They don't capture the "hidden Trump voter" Trafalgar feels they do. Not to mention many Repubs lie to pollsters. We'll find out sometime in November(since it's apparently okay for PA to count votes several days after the election)

You know, I'm actually kinda glad you're back.  You can be my pet.

[Jockey]

You guys are talking about 2 different things.

1. The Hunter Biden laptop/email story appears to be true.

Rudy Giuliani + Stave Bannon + New York Post story that the writer refused to put his name on + blind computer repairman? How could it not be true?

[Billy Hoyle]

Actually...Florida numbers at the moment heavily favor Biden. While there is only a 2-point gap in registered D vs R ballots, Dems are breaking 94-4 for Biden while Republicans are just 85-13 for Trump. Independents are also going 60-24 for Biden, which would come out to a 17-point edge for Biden in Florida based on what's in so far. Nate Silver had a good tweet on this today.

That said, it's inferring polls and assuming votes will mirror them, but based on respective party support, things look very positive for Biden. That Donald Trump is spending resources to protect Georgia and Texas while pulling ads out of Wisconsin and Florida seems to indicate a very narrow path for Trump. They need all the toss-up states (Florida, NC, Georgia, Ohio, Iowa) while also pulling Pennsylvania to stay in the fight. If Trump pulls it out, he likely needs all 5 of Nebraska's votes and to come out of Maine with something.

Considered it’s a state run by Ron deSandis and Pam Biondi I never put my hopes in Florida. Biden doesn’t  need it though.  He’ll get MI, WI, PA and AZ. Maybe even Ohio too.

[tower912]

Rudy Giuliani + Stave Bannon + New York Post story that the writer refused to put his name on + blind computer repairman? How could it not be true?

  You forgot 'story actually authored by Sean Hannity's former producer'.     Because that really adds that added touch of believability and objectivity.   

[brewcity77]

The polls were wrong in 2016, they will be wrong again. They don't capture the "hidden Trump voter" Trafalgar feels they do. Not to mention many Repubs lie to pollsters. We'll find out sometime in November(since it's apparently okay for PA to count votes several days after the election)

The polls were wrong in 2016 because they didn't weight for non-college educated whites, that's true. I also think they will be wrong again, but because polling agencies are overcorrecting for 2016. There is no "hidden Trump voter" anymore. People that were ashamed to vote for him in 2016 are blaringly supportive this time around and polling firms are adding extra weight to non-college educated whites for fear of a 2016 redux.

Also, votes are always counted after Election Night. They always have been and always will be. That's how active military votes have always been counted. That's why no state certifies their votes on Election Night. The earliest any state will certify is November 10th (Louisiana, Vermont, Virginia, South Dakota, Oklahoma) and the vast majority won't certify until 2-4 weeks after the election is completed. That is how it has always been.

The only organizations that are ever rushing to get election results out on Election Night are the media. So I guess the issue isn't fake votes, but fake news.

[muguru]

Rudy Giuliani + Stave Bannon + New York Post story that the writer refused to put his name on + blind computer repairman? How could it not be true?

Maybe because the FBI has been investigating it since 2019, and just did a 5 hour interview with Tony Bobulinksi?? But nah, that still makes it not true, right?? I guess you think Bobulinski isn't credible, even though he showed the FBI texts, and his phones to prove it all(and Yes Joe WAS involved every step of the way).

[muguru]

Considered it’s a state run by Ron deSandis and Pam Biondi I never put my hopes in Florida. Biden doesn’t  need it though.  He’ll get MI, WI, PA and AZ. Maybe even Ohio too.

Nope, he's definitely not winning Ohio..Once he said at the last debate that he is essentially going to get away from oil etc...that finished him. That will go down as one of the biggest political mistakes in US history. If you don't think that won't resonate, you're just wrong. He's also down in Michigan by about 4 points, AZ is close(repubs just took the lead in Maricopa county in early voting). It's going to be close no doubt.

[BM1090]

Nope, he's definitely not winning Ohio..Once he said at the last debate that he is essentially going to get away from oil etc...that finished him. That will go down as one of the biggest political mistakes in US history. If you don't think that won't resonate, you're just wrong. He's also down in Michigan by about 4 points, AZ is close(repubs just took the lead in Maricopa county in early voting). It's going to be close no doubt.

So if Biden wins all those states will you admit you're wrong or will you say the election is fixed?

[GB Warrior]

Actually...Florida numbers at the moment heavily favor Biden. While there is only a 2-point gap in registered D vs R ballots, Dems are breaking 94-4 for Biden while Republicans are just 85-13 for Trump. Independents are also going 60-24 for Biden, which would come out to a 17-point edge for Biden in Florida based on what's in so far. Nate Silver had a good tweet on this today.

That said, it's inferring polls and assuming votes will mirror them, but based on respective party support, things look very positive for Biden. That Donald Trump is spending resources to protect Georgia and Texas while pulling ads out of Wisconsin and Florida seems to indicate a very narrow path for Trump. They need all the toss-up states (Florida, NC, Georgia, Ohio, Iowa) while also pulling Pennsylvania to stay in the fight. If Trump pulls it out, he likely needs all 5 of Nebraska's votes and to come out of Maine with something.

To add: voter registration data is largely presumed as useless (or at least, less than useful) in this regard. People are grabbing at it because it's the best we have, but I think we're going to have to wait and see. I would imagine that in places like the Villages, there are an awful lot of registered republicans, and Trump had a dominant edge there in '16. They will show up as early voting Republicans, but if there's erosion in Trump's support there and the senior demographic writ large, he's in trouble. Losing seniors and the suburbs will be tough to overcome.

I've seen the reports of low PoC turnout in Miami-Dade, so we just have to see. We don't know who will turn out on election day vs who just got it over with early. All of this is anecdotal, but if I were a PoC who is at heightened risk of disenfranchisement or having my vote delegitimized as Trump is doing w/ mail-in ballots, I can construct a world in which I would choose to turn out in person to circumvent all of that.

Fortunately for everyone, we will know Florida before anything else to determine how long of a night it will be. If Trump loses Florida, it's a virtual death knell. If Trump wins, we'll all be waiting a long, long time for Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

[shoothoops]

about that Miami Dade:

https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-afs:Content:9654930920


https://twitter.com/kionnemcghee/status/1322214250413215744

[Hards Alumni]

Nope, he's definitely not winning Ohio..Once he said at the last debate that he is essentially going to get away from oil etc...that finished him. That will go down as one of the biggest political mistakes in US history. If you don't think that won't resonate, you're just wrong. He's also down in Michigan by about 4 points, AZ is close(repubs just took the lead in Maricopa county in early voting). It's going to be close no doubt.

I have no clue where you get your polls or news from.  I can tell you that they're utter garbage.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/michigan/

This is a compiler of polls.  In the closest poll here, you can see that Biden is +7.  Fox News has Biden +12.

You can click through each poll, and it explains the methodology how each is graded. 

FWIW, I think Ohio goes for Trump by at least 3%

[GB Warrior]

about that Miami Dade:

https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-afs:Content:9654930920


https://twitter.com/kionnemcghee/status/1322214250413215744

I was referring to this: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/29/miami-voter-turnout-democrats-433643.

Again, I think this is volatile because of the pandemic. It's conceivable the Republican door knocking campaigns have been significant.

[Plaque Lives Matter!]

Good to have you back Guru. I was having some self esteem issues about my intellect lately.

[Pakuni]

@kylegriffin1: Fox poll:

National: Likely voters

Joe Biden 52%
Donald Trump 44%

Independents favor Biden by 54-32%. Trump won that group by a single point in 2016. Seniors favor Biden by 10 points. Trump won that group by 9 points in 2016.

[Uncle Rico]

@kylegriffin1: Fox poll:

National: Likely voters

Joe Biden 52%
Donald Trump 44%

Independents favor Biden by 54-32%. Trump won that group by a single point in 2016. Seniors favor Biden by 10 points. Trump won that group by 9 points in 2016.

Maybe we’re missing the “shy” trump voter.  They’re a very quiet group

[MU82]

It's so funny to hear folks who believe every single word that their pathologically lying emperor tells them accuse others of not searching out the truth.

Don't worry, though. On Feb. 26, we'll be down to zero cases within days.

White Power!

[Billy Hoyle]

I mean you could be right, but the numbers don't lie...look at the interactive map I linked. Dems are NOT performing nearly as well in heavy Dem areas(specifically Miami-dade) that they typically do. Dems are very concerned about it..It was on CNN this morning and there's also this article from Politico...https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/29/miami-voter-turnout-democrats-433643

Also, most of you democrats will scream that "they are heavily biased" but if you look at Trafalgar polls(only one that got the national race right last year), trump is up or right there in the states you listed. The polls were wrong in 2016, they will be wrong again. They don't capture the "hidden Trump voter" Trafalgar feels they do. Not to mention many Repubs lie to pollsters. We'll find out sometime in November(since it's apparently okay for PA to count votes several days after the election)

Yeah, about your beloved Trafalger poll:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322301003090268162

And what’s wrong with counting votes cast in time after Election Day? You know, like military ballots?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Tsmith wrong?  That's unpossible.

Sometimes you're correct.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

A made up person?? You're one of the worst at believing everything the networks tell you. If it was fake, why has the Homeland Security committee said it's 100% factual?? Why did the DOJ announce last night that there is an ACTIVE investigation into it and has been since 2019?? So what you're saying is Tony Bobulinski, a former navy vet, is a total liar?? Yet, Vindamann was/is an American hero to you, right?? Nice try, but you aren't winning this one. BTW, that "report" your citing isn't even referring to the laptop scandal. It's fabricated.

Most of all why has NO ONE and I mean NO ONE in the Biden camp denied that the emails etc are real?? Because they are. Now flip this around and if it were DJT and one of his sons, you(and many others) would be talking non stop about it 24/7 and how true it is etc. That is FACT. Oh and CNN would be covering it 24/7 as well.

LOL

Tucker Carlson gives up on Biden story after finding documents
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/tucker-carlson-gives-up-on-biden-story-after-finding-documents-Ltd4RO9to0WbojOepHTC1A

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Not to mention many Repubs lie

We agree!

[muguru]

I have no clue where you get your polls or news from.  I can tell you that they're utter garbage.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/michigan/

This is a compiler of polls.  In the closest poll here, you can see that Biden is +7.  Fox News has Biden +12.

You can click through each poll, and it explains the methodology how each is graded. 

FWIW, I think Ohio goes for Trump by at least 3%

You say my polls are garbage and then use the VERY liberal 538 for your polls?? Well done..

*note* Rasmussen is NOT, I repeat NOT partisan republican like people think they are...they sample MORE democrats repeatedly than Repubs. They also do the ONLY daily presidential approval polls out there and he's at 51% as of today. No President has ever lost with an approval rating that high. 

Here's one https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/north_carolina_trump_48_biden_462

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/arizona_trump_48_biden_45

And then a very good article...https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/29/2020-polls-trump-biden-prediction-accurate-2016-433619

[muguru]

@kylegriffin1: Fox poll:

National: Likely voters

Joe Biden 52%
Donald Trump 44%

Independents favor Biden by 54-32%. Trump won that group by a single point in 2016. Seniors favor Biden by 10 points. Trump won that group by 9 points in 2016.

  Kyle Griffin, is one of the biggest lib tools out there(and that list is plentiful). Yes, he is citing a Fox poll, but IDC, there's have always been terrible.