Vote!

[Spotcheck Billy]

There were a lot more undecided voters in 2016 and they broke for Trump.

I was "undecided" in 2016, didn't like either of DT or HC. That was the 1st time I didn't vote at all, that's not the problem this year.

[HouWarrior]

Actually, it was designed as a compromise between rights of individual citizens ('national powers') and the rights of the states ('federal powers').

Congress has two houses: members of the House of Representatives are apportioned based on population (a nod to individual citizens' rights to vote them in - national powers) and members of the Senate are apportioned equally to each state (a nod to states' rights - federal powers).

The Electoral College was intended to be a mixture of these two modes. Madison explains it better than I do in Federalist No. 39.

https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Madison/01-10-02-0234

The next relation is to the sources from which the ordinary powers of government are to be derived. The house of representatives will derive its powers from the people of America, and the people will be represented in the same proportion, and on the same principle, as they are in the legislature of a particular state. So far the government is national not federal. The senate on the other hand will derive its powers from the states, as political and co-equal societies; and these will be represented on the principle of equality in the senate, as they now are in the existing congress. So far the government is federal, not national. The executive power will be derived from a very compound source. The immediate election of the president is to be made by the states in their political characters. The votes allotted to them, are in a compound ratio, which considers them partly as distinct and co-equal societies; partly as unequal members of the same society. The eventual election, again is to be made by that branch of the legislature which consists of the national representatives; but in this particular act, they are to be thrown into the form of individual delegations from so many distinct and co-equal bodies politic. From this aspect of the government, it appears to be of a mixed character, presenting at least as many federal as national features.

Thanks for the citation. Anytime one wishes to discuss what the founding founders intended the answer is so simple; read The Federalist Papers by James Madison. It is a relatively easy read explaining somewhat difficult points, But Madison's prose is clean and to the point.

BTW,...Curiously, Madison never argued over democracy vs republic...this is an argument I have only seen in recent times. Seems democrats prefer democracy and republicans like republic...I wonder why?

[GooooMarquette]

The last Marquette Law School poll before the 2016 presidential election had HC + 6 in Wisconsin (46 to 40) over DT. 

I do think Biden takes Wisconsin in this election, primarily because of the gender gap.

I think aggregate polls are more reliable than a single poll. According to Nate Silver's 538 site, Clinton was ahead in WI 49.4% to 44.9% (a 4.5% lead) with five days to go. And he gave her a 83.5% chance of winning.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/

In contrast, Biden is ahead 53.5% to 45.6% (a 7.9% lead) with five days to go, and Nate gives him a 93% chance of winning.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/wisconsin/

As Nate says, there is always a chance as long as the number isn't zero...but Trump has a dramatically higher hill to climb in WI this time.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I think aggregate polls are more reliable than a single poll. According to Nate Silver's 538 site, Clinton was ahead in WI 49.4% to 44.9% (a 4.5% lead) with five days to go. And he gave her a 83.5% chance of winning.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/

In contrast, Biden is ahead 53.5% to 45.6% (a 7.9% lead) with five days to go, and Nate gives him a 93% chance of winning.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/wisconsin/

As Nate says, there is always a chance as long as the number isn't zero...but Trump has a dramatically higher hill to climb in WI this time.

Yes, and specific to Wisconsin, the dramatic spike in COVID makes that climb even more difficult I would think.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

AND, NO ONE COVERED THE STORY except fox news.  this is exactly why i continue to say "journalism" is dead.  people don't realize that if they can withhold this from the public, what else can they/do they withhold.  are they telling the american people the truth?  all i ask is that everything is presented so people can make an informed choice based on their belief system

Oops.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1321942389045497861?s=21

[Galway Eagle]

Oops.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1321942389045497861?s=21

But Fox News is the real fair and fact checked news though

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

But Fox News is the real fair and fact checked news though

But fact checking is censorship!!!

[Jockey]

Oops.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1321942389045497861?s=21

No shyte, sherlock.

[wadesworld]

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CG5LvGbLCZf/?igshid=1u34xt1f8k437

Love me some Wes.

[rocky_warrior]

Oh, there's that and plenty more reasons why we cannot compare the years, but I still think polling is tricky with Trump because he's so unlikable as a person that people are reluctant to admit that they will vote for him as a candidate.  But women (suburban women in particular), are pissed off at the way he's handled the virus.   

Since we're going full on political with days to go before the election (I guess we're allowing it, for a few days...who knows what the rules are here, if I only knew who ran this place). I understand the political desire to boil it down to a single, or few issues, but I think it's simpler than that (!!).

A sitting president with the (bad) approval/disapproval numbers of Trump has never made it past his first term (since these things we tabulated).   The only shocking part about Trump is that his have been generally awful all along- in most cases there was some peak above 50% and a drop nearer the election. 

Scroll to the bottom graphs "How Trump compares with past presidents" and click 8 years.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

LBJ may be an exception, but again, he had > 50% approval numbers for a good part of his first term.

[Jockey]

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CG5LvGbLCZf/?igshid=1u34xt1f8k437

Love me some Wes.

Suppression continues unabated. Hundreds of republican lawsuits around the country to stop fair counting of votes.

Even trying to suppress military absentee ballots. Go amurica.

[wadesworld]

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000175-6bc5-d2df-adff-6fdfff5c0000

Good news guys! According to this White House press release, one of the Trump Administration’s accomplishments was ending the covid 19 pandemic! It’s over! Free at last!

Think I can get my mail in ballot back? Trump definitely gets my vote for finding a way to end this thing!

[Pakuni]

More of this, please

https://twitter.com/keithedwards/status/1321914961505890304/video/1

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Oops.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1321942389045497861?s=21

As if facts will change their minds

[jesmu84]

But Fox News is the real fair and fact checked news though

Most mainstream media doesn't appear to do a lot of fact checking

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

More of this, please

https://twitter.com/keithedwards/status/1321914961505890304/video/1

Don't know that I've seen something like that before. Love it.

[GooooMarquette]

Most mainstream media doesn't appear to do a lot of fact checking

Maybe the TV networks are getting worse, but the major written media (AP, Reuter’s, NYT, WaPo, LA Times) does a good job IMO.

[GB Warrior]

I think aggregate polls are more reliable than a single poll. According to Nate Silver's 538 site, Clinton was ahead in WI 49.4% to 44.9% (a 4.5% lead) with five days to go. And he gave her a 83.5% chance of winning.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/wisconsin/

In contrast, Biden is ahead 53.5% to 45.6% (a 7.9% lead) with five days to go, and Nate gives him a 93% chance of winning.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/wisconsin/

As Nate says, there is always a chance as long as the number isn't zero...but Trump has a dramatically higher hill to climb in WI this time.

To be fair, it includes an NYT poll showing a 17 pt margin that we all can assume is the ceiling outlier.

There are a lot of reasons why Biden is in a better spot (close or over 50%, less undecideds, favorability, the pandemic). But until they get the monkey off their back, no liberals are going to sleep soundly.

I also don't think Trump has a reasonable chance of winning outright. But a polling error plus disenfranchisement and attacking mail in ballots might do it

[TSmith34, Inc.]

You now have a Big Guy who's a traitor and sold out the U.S.A. for personal gain. Bobulinski is the 2020 version of Monica's blue dress, aina?

Sucker

[forgetful]

Off the wall prediction.

If Trump wins, and the Dems win the Senate (controlling all of congress), Trump will turn on the GOP and pass liberal policies to protect himself and his legacy.

[Jockey]

Off the wall prediction.

If Trump wins, and the Dems win the Senate (controlling all of congress), Trump will turn on the GOP and pass liberal policies to protect himself and his legacy.

If trump wins and Dems win the Senate, well, it can’t happen.

If enough votes are suppressed for trump to win, how do Dems win?

[GooooMarquette]

Off the wall prediction.

If Trump wins, and the Dems win the Senate (controlling all of congress), Trump will turn on the GOP and pass liberal policies to protect himself and his legacy.

Not entirely inconceivable, if he thinks it will enhance his brand. Because that’s all that matters - the brand.

[Jables1604]

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CG5LvGbLCZf/?igshid=1u34xt1f8k437

Love me some Wes.

Played golf with his dad yesterday.

Told his dad how proud I am to call to Wesley a fellow Marquette alum.

Dad told me that all the MU hoop players  (not just the one’s Wesley played with) text each other every day, multiple times a day.

[MU82]

There are numerous reasons why 2016 is vastly different than 2020. Off the top of my head, here are a dozen of them ...

1. There is not a visceral hate for the 2020 Dem candidate. In 2016, a huge percentage of the population hated, hated, HATED Hillary. There are plenty of folks who think Biden is too old, or too handsy, or too much a part of the establishment, but relatively few Americans "hate" Biden. As Lindsey Graham said in the best political ad ever made: “If you can’t admire Joe Biden as a person then you’ve got a problem. He is as good a man as God ever created.”

2. In 2016, Trump was a "concept." He was the outsider, the non-politician, the anti-establishment candidate running against an ultimate Washington insider. There was a significant percentage of the population that said, "I don't know if this boorish reality TV star is going to be any good, but I don't like Hillary and I don't like politicians and I don't like Washington, so let's see what he can do." We now know everything about Trump. We know exactly who he is and what kind of president he is. He is a totally known quantity, and he is historically unpopular. For example ... My best friend, a fellow Marquette '82 grad, admitted to his wife and kids and me earlier this year that he voted for Trump in 2016 because he hated Hillary and thought he'd give Trump a shot. A lifelong Republican, he said it was the worst mistake he ever made, and he is not only voting for Biden this time but has actually campaigned some for him. There are a good number of stories like his.

3. There is no significant 3rd party presence. It might not seem like Jill Stein got many votes, but she got enough in key battleground states from Hillary haters to make a difference.

4. Bernie's early, sincere, enthusiastic support for Biden should help Biden get many of the votes that Bernie's people refused to give Hillary in 2016. Many of the Bernie bros and babes who voted for Stein or Trump or nobody in 2016 -- enough to cost Hillary the election -- will be voting for (or have already voted for) Biden this time.

5. Hillary assumed she would win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Biden has not made a similar assumption, and has campaigned aggressively in those states either in person, through surrogates and/or via the airwaves.

6. A significant number of Republicans, especially women, are disgusted by Trump and are going with Biden this time. The Lincoln Project, Republican Voters Against Trump and a few other Never-Trump Republican operations have helped take votes away from Trump and give them to Biden.

7. Trump decisively won the white vote in 2016, and easily won the senior vote. By all available measurements so far, neither will be the case in 2020. The only demographic that Trump easily wins are white men without college degrees. Biden is way ahead with women, young people and minorities, and is leading among white people with college degrees and seniors.

8. The groundswell for the anti-Trump vote was set in 2018, when Dems flipped the House. A surprising number of House districts that had voted Republican for decades -- especially those with majority women -- turned blue.

9. The Dems succeeded in making health care a major issue in 2018 and have amplified that in 2020, with Trump's help. To many voters, trying to take health insurance away from millions of people during a deadly pandemic, with absolutely no replacement plan offered, is immoral. It's an easy "sell" for Dems and Independents, and even many Republicans.

10. More than ever, it's math. There are more Dems than Republicans and more Independents than either. The fastest growing "party" these last 4 years has been Independents. And poll after poll after poll, for months and months now, have shown that Independents disapprove strongly of Trump.

11. The pandemic obviously is a major drag on Trump, and there was nothing similar to it in 2016. Depending upon which poll one looks at, anywhere from 55% to 66% of Americans think Trump totally botched the handling of it. Independents are extremely critical of Trump's response to the coronavirus.

12. As hard as Trump has tried, he has been unable to create the kind of October surprise that badly hurt Hillary in 2016. Very few voters who were undecided or leaning Biden have changed their minds due to the conspiracy theories being peddled at the 11th hour by the desperate Trump team. Tens of millions of votes were cast, mostly by Dems and Independents, before the hard-to-believe Hunter Biden allegations even started getting peddled.

None of the above guarantees a darn thing. After all, another major difference is that the pandemic is keeping millions from voting in person even as one party is actively, admittedly, working OT to suppress the mail-in vote. Nobody knows how that dynamic will end up affecting the outcome.

As a Never-Trump Independent, I am a nervous nelly because of that last point, but I do get a little smile on my face every time a Trump supporter's main argument for why their guy will win is, "Everybody was wrong in 2016, too."

It is not 2016. Almost everything is different now, and almost all of those differences favor Biden. So if 2016 is the big hope of Trump supporters, that's cool with me.

Either way, can't wait for this election to be over, whenever that turns out to be.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Played golf with his dad yesterday.

Told his dad how proud I am to call to Wesley a fellow Marquette alum.

Dad told me that all the MU hoop players  (not just the one’s Wesley played with) text each other every day, multiple times a day.

Sometime this year there was a Tom Cream interview during BLM protests and he said there was a "former player text group from all eras" and they were in regular contact.