Scholarship table
I think it is optimistic, if Heldt and Anim are still starting when the Big East season starts. My optimistic view is that neither will be starting and we will be better than 26. I want to believe the newcomers are good enough to change the starting line up.
I'll stick with my opinion on Gold. He'll be in foul trouble within the first eight minutes.
What newcomer do you think will start over Matt?
Not a newcomer, but it could be John. Otherwise Morrow or even Joey, if we do not go with a traditional center. I believe we are going to be good, because I am hoping at least two of Bailey, Morrow and Joey are going to change the lineup.
FWIW, going by Pomeroy's numbers, 0.95 ppp would've ranked us between 15-28 in the nation (depending on the next decimal) last year and top-50 in any of the past 5 years.
Starting no matta, hey?
Wondering why you think this? Based on Wojo's history I would be shocked in a huge jump in defense and would be shocked, with this roster composition, if we are not Top 10 in offense. I can see an improvement on defense in the rankings, but a huge one would be a shock. I also don't see your shock prognostication on offense where everyone returns but Drew and Harry.
Think it is plausible our offense this year does take a step back into the 30s-40s. As I recall, Rowsey turned in the 2nd best season at MU since 2000 next to D-Wade as it related to Offensive Efficiency.
I was referring to Eng statement of a minimum top 50 D. If that’s the case (I don’t think it will be that high) there will be a monumental shift in focus and energy on D. If that were to happen I find it highly unlikely that we would maintain a top 10 Off. We are not the ‘96 Packers who are great at everything.
Our roster could not defend against the national champions. I am just wondering how much the 3 Villanova games skewed the numbers?
#FakeNews#Lieswat??
I echo what Jay Bee said. What are you talking about? Sam had a better offensive efficiency than Rowsey in that same season. Travis Diener, Steve Novak, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, Davante Gardner, and Markus Howard all had seasons with a better offensive efficiency than Rowsey did last year. Further, Wade wasn't even that good in that regard. I mean, he had a great season, but all of those guys listed above had higher efficiency numbers and Wade didn't even lead the 2003 team in offensive efficiency (and would've been fourth on the 2018 team had 2003 Wade put up the same numbers last yaer).Very bizarre statement.
TAMUI do know, Newsie is right on you knowing ball.
1. Read the quote in the first post. No Rowdy = addition by subtraction on defense2. JC = Addition by addition on defense3. Wojo had average defenses his first two seasons. It wasn't until Rowdy and Howard joined up that the defenses tanked. I think there is strong evidence that this is much more of a personnel issue than a scheme issue.
I think we overestimate the import of just height when looking at personal data, especially when looking at these factors singularly. This is the inherent problem with Big Data.While height is important on defense, the relative importance (aka, match-ups) is one of the smaller contributions versus the national average. Meanwhile, other factors including style of play are much larger factors on the margins. One needs to look at these factors multiplicatively.Here is a teaser: Opponent assist rate, our 2Foul Participation Rate (how we have to sit our starters like Luke), Home Court, our rebounding, foul rates, two point distribution yield, and style of defense are much larger statistically sensitiive factors in my models. Btw, the Wino's height over Drewski gets MU to a 103 AdJ D. Good for a 129 rank last year. Ed will get us further. Under 50? We are talking PowerBall lucky.Also your reference to the Wojo Derrick Wilson PF on the back of the 2-3 zone years creates a caution considering the shot clock and foul focus changes since then.
My optimism is because Rowsey was the worst defensive starter in modern Marquette history and he is being replaced by a good defender.
My bad - Perhaps it was Value Add. I think Auburn can clarify/confirm. The search sleuths here, I'm sure can find the stat I intended to reference.Overarching point was, that Rowsey was extremely valuable on the O-End, and his departure will likely have a negative affect on the Offense and likely will result in a step back, despite another year of growth from Markus, Sam, et al.Yet as has been pointed out, we will be better on D-end with no more midget ball of Rowsey/Howard.
I will share this now as it will take me a while before I can get back to getting the models to how I want them. This will advance the conversation while also getting feedback.This is based on a meta database built off Pomeroy data of all NCAA teams. The goal was to use that sample to determine what are the criteria to predict adjusted DE. The DE metrics reported here are differences versus the national averages (sensitivity analysis) to benchmark last year's team. Positive is bad and negative is good.- Adjusted Tempo (+0.3 to our Adj. DE). Better defensive teams play at a lower tempo. UVA, who was the #1 defensive team, had a pace of 59.3 versus 69.5 for MU.- Steal Rate (0.0). MU right at average. Joe could raise this. If MU increased their steal rate 1%, our DE would drop 0.3 points.- Block % (-0.2). Thanks Theo. Let's keep our bigs home more.- Opponent Assist Rate (+0.9). MU allowed more assists than norm. Maybe because of the bad PnR defense?- 2Foul Participation (have to sit players because of foul issues) (+0.6). Depth willhelp here but this harkens back to having to sit Luke. MU was at 31.7% last year versus a 20.1% on average. Woof. Plenty of times we had to sit starters last year. The Frosh usually did okay but let's learn to pressure without fouling or chasing needlessly.- Home Court Rating (-1.4). Will FF help MU even more than the BC? The students in the bow tie will help. Thanks LAX Dudes.- Opponents OR (+0.4). Big Ed, get to work. Big difference versus UVA. - Opponent Shot Mix (Net: -2.2). MU fouled more (thus, more free throws) and gave up more twos, but pressured out on the perimeter to a net overall benefit on threes. Maybe because we had to with our guards? Good strategy overall but this created other holes. - Size (Net: +0.5). Yes our small guards hurt us, but we were also bigger on the back line. Joe could shave off 2-3 points of adjDE, though. (Btw, PF, Center and PG height have the biggest impacts on DE).- Opponent TO Rate (0.3). MU turned over opponents less than average when out chasing the perimeter. Let's balance the floor and double on pressure points with doubles like against Happ.- Defensive Footprint (1.7). Pomeroy actually quantifies this (scheme). I threw it in and it stuck. MU way below average and UVA. Pick your poison.- One note on statistical comparisons as I mentioned were the shot clock and rule changes implemented a few years ago. The best conference DE last year was Nova at 105.7. In 2015, it was 98.5 (also by Nova). A shorter time clock, reduced hand checking, the extended hoop circle and a focus on post play has increased offensive play, especially in the BE. Cheers! Looking at the major help that Ed and Joe will provide on defense. What scheme adjustments will Wojo make?
Thanks Dr. B. A lot to sift through. The only point I'm lost on this bolded. How does one quantify scheme?Also, you mention a lot about how new players will help. How about how removing a terrible defensive player will help?
I found it. It's Auburn's offensive value add. Auburn rates Rowsey as the second most valuable offensive Marquette player since 2002. #1 is 02-03 Dwyane Wade.1. 02-03 Dwyane Wade 10.422. 17-18 Andrew Rowsey 9.433. 17-18 Sam Hauser 8.094. 03-04 Travis Diener 7.435. 17-18 Markus Howard 7.316. 05-06 Steve Novak 7.277. 01-02 Dwyane Wade 7.168. 02-03 Robert Jackson 7.019. 09-10 Jimmy Butler 6.8510. 01-02 Cordell Henry 6.84Damn, 3 of the top 5 offensive seasons per this stat happened last season. I'm not sure how this stat is calculated, maybe Auburn can give us a summary.