[Cracked Sidewalks] A look back, Marquette's history with Top 100 recruits...Part Three, the 2000s

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

A look back, Marquette's history with Top 100 recruits...Part Three, the 2000s

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (bma725)

We're back today with Part Three in our series, this time with a look at what most would call the "Tom Crean Era". Yes, Buzz Williams has been the coach for the final two recruiting classes of the decade, but as I will explain later on, those particular players will not factor in to this analysis.

Coach Crean was here longer than any coach since Al McGuire, and he achieved more success than any since Al, bringing Marquette to the school's first Final Four since winning it all back in 1977. There's been a lot of debate about his recruiting through the years, and whether or not he was able to recruit at the level many people thought he should. You'll have to see if the myths about his recruiting actually hold up as you read the article....and for those who missed the previous installments you can find them here and here.

As always, a few notes before we get to the actual rankings:

• We'll get the legend out of the way early on this one, since it will factor in to a couple of the notes to follow. The services listed are the ones that come into the discussion in this decade, you can go to Part One to see all the services used in this series. Additionally, some of you may know of some other services that ranked Marquette players during this decade like Rise Magazine and CSTV. Unfortunately the accuracy for these services when it comes to the simple things(name, position, class and college choice) is so off that I just couldn't include them in the final analysis. Because of that, the list below may be missing a player or two, but I doubt it. As always, click the picture for a better view.

• It may just be the way I look at it, but I think it is a bit unfair to evaluate players that haven't completed at least two years of their college career . This is especially true with players that may have been injured, or players that came in as back ups early in their career. The only time that isn't really the case is if a particular player is so spectacularly good(or spectacularly bad) that nothing they could do in their final two years would change the analysis(i.e. early entry to the NBA). For that reason, you will not see any analysis of players in the recruiting classes of 2007 and 2008. They are however, listed below.
  

• That also means you will not see any analysis of the Class of 2009 recruits until at least 2013, but I figure I should mention them so you all can see how the class compares to others in the past. Keep in mind that the RSCI ranking listed for these players has not been updated since last fall and likely will not be updated until the final rankings are out from all services sometime in June or July. The other rankings listed for them are current.

• You're going to see some players in this edition that you would not normally think of as Top 100 players because they came to Marquette from a Junior College. In this era with the multitude of services, there are some services that do a combined evaluation of high school and JUCO players together. Since I am factoring that ranking in for the high school players, I decided to include the JUCO players in the discussion even though you would not normally think of them as being part of a Top 100 ranking. On the other hand, I did not include any ranking that was made up solely of JUCO players, since there is no real way to translate that into a high school Top 100 equivalent.

• Remember, transfer players count with the class they came to Marquette with, not necessarily their high school class, and they are evaluated on their entire college career not just their career at Marquette. JUCO players on the other hand are only evaluated on their Marquette careers because it's tough to gauge the level of competition they face in junior college.

• As I mentioned in Part Two, I'm only counting players that actually enrolled or attempted to enroll in classes. Whether they actually went to class, or ever played a game for Marquette doesn't really matter.  That means you may see a name that you don't normally think of as a Marquette recruit.

• Because of the way some of the services do their rankings in this era, players that were actually evaluated as Top 100 talent may not have made the Top 100 due to the fact that they went to a Prep School.  I'm speaking specifically of Damian Saunders. Scout.com had him as a 4-Star player and the #22 Power Forward in the country coming out of Notre Dame Prep but did not include him in their Top 100, since they only rank high school players. Given the rankings of the players around him on the Power Forward list, it's safe to say that Saunders would have fallen somewhere in the 80-100 range in the Top 100 had they included Prep players. But they didn't, so he doesn't make the list.

• Lastly, and I'm sure that I'm beginning to sound like a broken record, what I'm analyzing is whether or not a player lived up to the hype of a particular ranking or the label of a "Top 100" player in general. If I think a player failed to live up to that ranking, it doesn't mean that he was a bad guy or a terrible player, just that he didn't match what you would expect from a player supposedly of that caliber. In fact, it's really more of a statement on the validity of these type of rankings, and how much weight we should be giving them.

With that out of the way, here are Marquette's Top 100 players in the 2000s, or more specifically from 2000-2006. Click for a better view.



At a glance you can tell that this is quite a few more "Top 100" recruits than in the past. In seven recruiting classes, there are a total of 20 recruits that were ranked, compared to 14 in the 1990s and 12 in the 1980s. The number is a bit inflated due to the inclusion of the JUCO rankings, but even if you take them out there are still more players in seven recruiting classes than there were in either of the previous two decades. Further, if you include the players that will not be evaluated, that number jumps even higher. We'll have to see how these players did in comparison to those that came before.

The Hits(Chronological Order)

• Odartey Blankson - It may not have worked out the way people wanted it to at Marquette, but there's no denying ODB's talent. He started 55 of 58 games during his two years at Marquette averaging 7.3 PPG and 5.8 RPG before transferring to UNLV. In two years at UNLV, Odartey averaged 17.5 PPG and 9.8 RPG. He was named All Mountain West Conference as a senior. Sure it happened against possibly weaker competition, but given what he had shown at Marquette there's a fairly good chance he would have put up similar numbers had he stayed.

• Scott Merritt - One of the most unnecessarily criticized players in recent memory. Maybe he didn't develop into a dominant back to the basket center like some thought he should, but he was an incredibly solid and remarkably consistent player. Merritt fought through a painful shoulder injury and surgery to become the only player in Marquette history to score over 1000 points, grab over 600 rebounds, dish out over 100 assists and block over 100 shots.

• Dwyane Wade - I think I'm going to let this one stand on name value alone. You all know what he did, nothing I can say will capture it properly.

• Travis Diener - Another name that just stands out in the annals of Marquette history. Likely would have been the school's all time leading scorer if he had not suffered multiple injuries his senior year. Despite that, when he left school he was 3rd all time in scoring, 2nd in assists, 1st in 3-Point Field Goals Made, and 1st in 3-Point Field Goals attempted. He also finished in the top 10 in career 3-Point Percentage, Free Throws Made and Free Throw Percentage.

• Steve Novak - Perhaps the greatest shooter in Marquette history, definitely the greatest shooter in modern history. Averaged double figures in points his final three years including leading the team in scoring as a senior. Among the top 15 in scoring, Novak is 1st in every major 3-Point shooting category(FG Made, FG Attempted, FG %) and 1st in Free Throw Percentage. He was Marquette's 2nd Conference USA Freshman of the Year and the first player in Marquette history to be named to the All Big East First Team.

• Robert Jackson - He played only one year at Marquette after transferring from Mississippi State, but what a year it was. Jackson averaged 15.4 PPG and 7.5 RPG, the latter of which lead the team. In his final two years at Mississippi State, Jackson averaged 11.8 PPG and 7.2 RPG, while being named 3rd Team All SEC as a sophomore.
  

• Dominic James, Wesley Matthews, Jerel McNeal - They came in together, they starred together, it just didn't feel right to separate them in the analysis since so much of what they did was about how they played as a unit. The loss to Missouri still stings a bit, and it's a bit hard to believe their Marquette careers are finally over, so I'm going to forgo the analysis on them since we all remember what they did.

• Lazar Hayward - He's already scored over 1200 points and were he to simply duplicate his 2008-09 results next year he'd rank 2nd on the All Time list. More than a scorer, Hayward has led the team in rebounding as the last two years. For his efforts, Hayward was named All Big East 2nd Team as a sophomore, and robbed of that award as a junior. Not only that, but he did all while playing out of his natural position. All the accolades that Hayward received in high school came while he played either the shooting guard or small forward position, and he's spent his entire Marquette career as either a power forward or center.
  

The Misses(Chronological Order)

• Terry Sanders - Not a bad player, but when you are ranked as highly as he was, more is expected. Sanders was a bench player for three years and a starter as a senior. Offensively there were always flashes that he could do more, but whether he couldn't do it consistently or Tom Crean's offense didn't utilize him more, we never got more than flashes. He was a capable rebounder and defender down low. Career averages of 3.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG and 0.3 Blocks in four years.

• Ron Howard - Played in 10 games scoring 16 points before transferring to Valparaiso. Named All Conference Second Team in the Mid-Con in 2005 and 2006. Averaged over 13 PPG and 4 APG his final two years. Those aren't necessarily bad numbers, and he's not a bad player as shown by his nearly making the Milwaukee Bucks roster last summer. But I don't know that production like that in a mid-major conference qualifies as living up to the hype of his ranking when you consider what he did at Marquette. Right now he's a borderline player and I'm willing to be talked out of keeping him here.

• Marshall Williams - Like Alton Mason before him, I'm sure a lot of you are saying who in the world is Marshall Williams? His time with Marquette was incredibly brief, but it did happen and it was enough to put him on this list. For those that don't know, Williams was the best high school player in Wisconsin coming from powerhouse Milwaukee Vincent. He chose NC State out of high school where he posted 5.5 PPG and 2.5 RPG as a freshman. Injury and homesickness led him to transfer to Marquette following his freshman year. He enrolled in and even briefly attended summer school, probably attending more classes than Alton Mason, but that's where his Marquette career ends. The official story was that he didn't want to sit out a year and not play so he chose to attend Vincennes Junior College where he would eligible right away. After a year at Vincennes, he was supposed to return to Marquette, but his scholarship was given away with almost no mention. Instead of coming to Marquette, he briefly attended UW-Green Bay but left before playing a game. He finished his career at NAIA Georgetown College in Kentucky where he was an All Conference player.

• Karon Bradley - Played in 48 games at Marquette where he had a high of 10 career points. After his sophomore season he transferred to Wichita State and averaged 8 PPG and 1.6 APG. He'd come to Marquette with a reputation as an undersized shooting guard who could score points in bunches but never really showed that in college. If it had only happened at Marquette, we could probably write it off due to the fact that he played out of position and was a back up, but given that it continued at WSU, perhaps the hype was too much.

• Dameon Mason - This is really the case of two very different careers in four years, and the latter half was so abysmal that I think he has to be classified as a miss. Mason was a part time starter as a freshman and full time starter as a sophomore at Marquette. His sophomore year he averaged 11.9 PPG and 5.6 RPG and appeared to be on the upswing. That sort of production throughout 4 years would have guaranteed being a hit, but it didn't turn out that way. For reasons that remain unclear, he transferred to LSU after his sophomore year. He was a part time starter as a junior when he averaged 5.4 PPG and 3 RPG. As a senior, he missed time due to injury (migraines, enlarged heart) and played in only 7 games before being declared academically ineligible.

• Brandon Bell - Perhaps Bell's fall started before he ever got to campus. When he committed, in addition to the ranking from Gibbons, Bell was also in the Top 100 at TheInsiders(now Scout.com) and Rivals.com. But by the time his senior season was over he'd dropped considerably. He played in 21 games at MU posting averages of 1.7 PPG and 0.4 APG before taking a medical leave of absence and then transferring prior to his sophomore season. He ended up at Detroit-Mercy where he averaged 6.3 PPG and 2.9 APG as a reserve before his season ended due to injury. That turned out to be the end of his career, as Bell decided not to play his senior season in order to concentrate on getting his degree.

• Marcus Jackson - I'd love to have him as a hit for all the effort he showed and the always fun Point Center experiment, but I just don't think he did enough to be considered one of the Top 40 players in that class. His first year was injury plagued, and he was never able to get on track. As a senior he averaged 3.3 PPG and 8.2 RPG.
  

• Ousmane Barro - Look I love Ousmane Barro for the heart and determination he showed on the court, and he's probably one of the all time great people connected with the University. But career averages of 5.2 PPG and 4.5 RPG, and regression from his junior to senior year just don't cut it for someone who is supposed to be one of the 40 best players in his class. Admittedly, it wasn't his fault, the ranking was just way too high for a kid that just moved to this country and hadn't played high school basketball due to eligibility issues. But we're not here to debate the fairness of the rankings, we're looking at accuracy.

• Mike Kinsella - There may never have been a more snake bitten player in Marquette history. As a freshman at Rice University, he had a stress fracture in his foot and was a medical redshirt. He transferred to Minneapolis Tech Junior College so that he could play while rehabbing his injury and was a first team JUCO All American. It would turn out to be the only healthy season he had in college. In all three years at Marquette, Kinsella missed time do stress fractures in his feet. There were flashes of talent, like the Pittsburgh game his senior year, but injuries and playing style never allowed him to put it together.

• Jamil Lott - Another JUCO All American, Lott was supposed to provide inside toughness to young team his first two years. Instead, he was a part time starter(using the term loosely) that averaged under 3 PPG and 2 RPG for his career. Much of his reputation when he came to Marquette was built on the fact that he played in the fairly weak Mon-Dak conference while in Junior College.
  

So there you have it. While there were definitely more ranked players this time around, the results weren't necessarily any better. Only 10 of 20 "Top 100" recruits managed to live up to the hype that preceded them, for a success rate of 50%. That brings the cumulative rate down just a bit to 68.5%. If I change my mind and include Ron Howard as a hit, that brings the rates up to 55% for this period and 71.4% for the three decades....but I'm not promising I'll do that yet.

Keep in mind though, that we're really only looking at 7 years worth of data right now. If Trevor Mbakwe turns into a stud at Minnesota, if Jimmy Butler develops like we think he will, if the incoming freshman live up to their potential, this could all change greatly.

Stay tuned for Part Four coming in a few days, where we break down the numbers a bit more, and include a player or two that might have been missed the first go round.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2009/05/look-back-marquettes-history-with-top_20.html

[Nukem2]

Barro was never ranked high enough to be a "miss" especially since he really never had a high school career.  Yes, we may have hoped for more; but, even TC said he was project in the making.  Ooze may have had some high ranking early on but that was hype more than "fact". As for Marshall Williams, we never knew him as the time between his transfer announcement and his decision to go to Vincennes was a hiccup.  Yes he was a loser; but he was NC State's loser. For different reasons, neither of these guys should be on this list.

[bma725]

Barro was never ranked high enough to be a "miss" especially since he really never had a high school career.  Yes, we may have hoped for more; but, even TC said he was project in the making.  Ooze may have had some high ranking early on but that was hype more than "fact". As for Marshall Williams, we never knew him as the time between his transfer announcement and his decision to go to Vincennes was a hiccup.  Yes he was a loser; but he was NC State's loser. For different reasons, neither of these guys should be on this list.

You might want to look again at how well thought of Barro was by multiple sources.  HoopScoop had him in their Top 100 when they thought he was a HS player in the class of 2003, and when he "reclassified" to 2004 he became one of their top prep players.  He ended up being in their Top 40 of all incoming players.  That's highly ranked enough to be a miss.  Further it wasn't early on as you describe it, the ranking was published right before he headed to MU,  prior to that he'd be considered one of the top 70 but not top 40.  And it wasn't just them.  Scout had him in their top 100 early on, and he finished just outside of it with a ranking as the #17 Center in the class. 

As for Williams, it may have been a hiccup, but it happened, just like Alton Mason attended but never played a game.

Having said that, I still think you're not getting it.  Whether or not a player deserved the ranking they got, or their ranking was based on misdirected hype isn't the issue.  I'm not counting the players as a failure for Marquette or the coaches or themselves, but rather as a mark on the recruiting analysts.

If you rate a guy among the top 40 incoming players in a class and he doesn't contribute quite a bit right away, either you screwed up or the class itself is poor on an epic level.  That's what I'm trying to say.

You still seem to be taking this as some sort of shot against the players or the coaches, which it isn't. 

[MR.HAYWARD]

BMA....I have no problem with the BArro miss, while he did not play HS he did have some hype and therefore rankings from his AAu exposure.  he would have benefitted immensely from a redshirt year but when you are the only big on campus and the team is short players we never had that luxury.  rated a miss or a hit he definitely qulaifiies as a player to judge.

Now with Ron Howard...how you can possibly rate a guy that averages double digits at a D1 school a miss i will never know.  Not to mention he was borderline top 100 anyway.  A hit in every sense of the word.  1000 point scorer in D1 should be a hit.

Lastly, to rate Lott and Kinsella top 100 players is crazy, these are guys who were honorable mention All State players in HS.  These are guys who were honorable mention All-Americans at the lowest rungs of DII JUCO ball.  to compare them as All-americans to a guy Like Buycks as a Juco all american is comapring apples to oranges. 

[bma725]

You've got your facts mixed up.  Lott played in Division I in the NCJAA and he was a 2nd Team All American, not honorable mention.  Kinsella played Division III, but he was a 1st Team All American, not honorable mention.

Ron Howard came close to scoring 1000 points, but didn't quite make it.  As I said he had a good final two years at Valpo, but his redshirt sophomore year he was a bench player that averaged only 5.8 PPG and 1.4 APG and his year at Marquette he scored a total of 16 points. 

Plus, the Summit League wasn't exactly a high quality confrence at the time Howard was in the league, in fact calling them a mid major back then doesn't fit.  They were a low major.  The best seed that any team from the league got in the NCAA tournament during Howard's time was a 15 seed in 2004.  Twice they had 16 seeds including once in the play in game.  It's not as if he was putting up those numbers in a major conference, or even in one of the better mid majors like Odartey did.

Given the hype that comes with being a Top 100 recruit, you would think he would be able to dominate that level of competition, but he didn't.  He wasn't even the best player on his own team in any of his three years at Valpo.

[Nukem2]

You might want to look again at how well thought of Barro was by multiple sources.  HoopScoop had him in their Top 100 when they thought he was a HS player in the class of 2003, and when he "reclassified" to 2004 he became one of their top prep players.  He ended up being in their Top 40 of all incoming players.  That's highly ranked enough to be a miss.  Further it wasn't early on as you describe it, the ranking was published right before he headed to MU,  prior to that he'd be considered one of the top 70 but not top 40.  And it wasn't just them.  Scout had him in their top 100 early on, and he finished just outside of it with a ranking as the #17 Center in the class. 

As for Williams, it may have been a hiccup, but it happened, just like Alton Mason attended but never played a game.

Having said that, I still think you're not getting it.  Whether or not a player deserved the ranking they got, or their ranking was based on misdirected hype isn't the issue.  I'm not counting the players as a failure for Marquette or the coaches or themselves, but rather as a mark on the recruiting analysts.

If you rate a guy among the top 40 incoming players in a class and he doesn't contribute quite a bit right away, either you screwed up or the class itself is poor on an epic level.  That's what I'm trying to say.

You still seem to be taking this as some sort of shot against the players or the coaches, which it isn't. 

Barro was pretty much gone from the recruiting lists by the time he was a senior.  Last I saw was a 180s and a low 200s.  Even TC said he was a pretty much a project.  Also, his numbers are not that bad when you discount his wasted frosh season.  Defense was pretty good as well.  I still don't classify him as a miss.

As for Williams, he may have attended a summer class for a couple days (I'm not so sure of that either); but, he was never on campus in August.  In essence, he was never "here".  Mason was here for a semester while was here, was he not? He is NC State's miss. 

[bma725]

Barro was pretty much gone from the recruiting lists by the time he was a senior.  Last I saw was a 180s and a low 200s.  Even TC said he was a pretty much a project.  Also, his numbers are not that bad when you discount his wasted frosh season.  Defense was pretty good as well.  I still don't classify him as a miss.

As for Williams, he may have attended a summer class for a couple days (I'm not so sure of that either); but, he was never on campus in August.  In essence, he was never "here".  Mason was here for a semester while was here, was he not? He is NC State's miss. 

Again, HoopScoop rated him in the Top 40 when they did the recruiting class rankings following his senior year.  They had both Barro and Kinsella as "8 Point" players which in that system translates to someone in the 11-40 ranking area.  We're not talking about him being a consensus player, we're talking about him making one ranking.  I can't access the link from work but I'll be happy to provide it for you when I get home tonight so you can take a look.

Anyway, ignore for a second that we're talking about Barro and the specifics that go along with his particular case, and just think about a generic player ranked in the top 40, possibly as high as 11th in his particular class that had the same level of production he did.  Would you say the normal expectations for a player of that supposed caliber would include averaging 5.2PPG and 4.5RPG during their four year career?  Would you say it's normal for a player ranked that highly to never average in double figures in any category for their entire career?  If the answer to those questions is no, then Barro must be classified as a miss.  It's nothing against him, Clark Francis was the one that screwed up by ranking him that highly given his background.

As For Williams, the attendance thing came from a MJS reporter and was even mentioned on the other board a year or more ago.  Having said that, I don't think being a miss means he's just a miss for NC State.  To me, if you attend multiple schools, the only way you are a miss at one and not the others is if you actually perform well at the other schools.  So IMO, he was a miss at NC State, a miss at Marquette, a miss at UWGB etc.

[MR.HAYWARD]

Given the hype that comes with being a Top 100 recruit, you would think he would be able to dominate that level of competition, but he didn't.  He wasn't even the best player on his own team in any of his three years at Valpo.

Well in that regard then we are nitpicking on top 100 kids.  MAybe a chart using only rsci or in other words concensus top 100 kids would be more appropriate.  guys like Dj, Wes, Mcneal, maymon, Meriit, etc.  I think are the guys this board refers to as top 100 kids and guys that I have referred to in the past.  In the past i have said "how many top 100 guys did not score 1000?"  or "all of our recent 1000 point guys are top 100 kids" 

I sure as heck wasnt referring to guys that were rated #100 in one poll or guys like Bell or Barro that were rated as Juniors but not as Seniors or sure as hell not guys like Kinsella or Lott.  being rated in one of many lists could be a misprint.  Being rsci top 100 is a whole other animal.

[Nukem2]

Again, HoopScoop rated him in the Top 40 when they did the recruiting class rankings following his senior year.  They had both Barro and Kinsella as "8 Point" players which in that system translates to someone in the 11-40 ranking area.  We're not talking about him being a consensus player, we're talking about him making one ranking.  I can't access the link from work but I'll be happy to provide it for you when I get home tonight so you can take a look.

Anyway, ignore for a second that we're talking about Barro and the specifics that go along with his particular case, and just think about a generic player ranked in the top 40, possibly as high as 11th in his particular class that had the same level of production he did.  Would you say the normal expectations for a player of that supposed caliber would include averaging 5.2PPG and 4.5RPG during their four year career?  Would you say it's normal for a player ranked that highly to never average in double figures in any category for their entire career?  If the answer to those questions is no, then Barro must be classified as a miss.  It's nothing against him, Clark Francis was the one that screwed up by ranking him that highly given his background.

As For Williams, the attendance thing came from a MJS reporter and was even mentioned on the other board a year or more ago.  Having said that, I don't think being a miss means he's just a miss for NC State.  To me, if you attend multiple schools, the only way you are a miss at one and not the others is if you actually perform well at the other schools.  So IMO, he was a miss at NC State, a miss at Marquette, a miss at UWGB etc.

I don't recall Hoop Scoop having Ooze in the Top 40 following his senior season.  If they did, it was certainly an outlying ranking.  No one else had him any where near th Top 100.  Look at Mbao this year.  We've read that he is well ahead of Barro at this point in their careers and he (Mbao) is not in any top 100s.  So, it Mbao gets his eligibilty and (theoretically) flames out, would he be considered a miss?  I don't think so.  Don't want to belabor this, but you're criteria need to be honed.   As for  Williams, he just really never was here.  Certainly he would not be counted for APR purposes (whereas, Alton Mason would have if APR had existed then).

[bilsu]

My memory is by the end of his sophomore year Mason was sitting on the bench. Seemed like Crean was through with him when he did not get off a potential game winning shot against a team (S. Miss?) and we lost. He monoploized the ball and did not get a shot off. Crean was always a poor loser. I sure if you check his minutes they were way down the last few games.

[bma725]

I don't recall Hoop Scoop having Ooze in the Top 40 following his senior season.  If they did, it was certainly an outlying ranking.  No one else had him any where near th Top 100.  Look at Mbao this year.  We've read that he is well ahead of Barro at this point in their careers and he (Mbao) is not in any top 100s.  So, it Mbao gets his eligibilty and (theoretically) flames out, would he be considered a miss?  I don't think so.  Don't want to belabor this, but you're criteria need to be honed.   As for  Williams, he just really never was here.  Certainly he would not be counted for APR purposes (whereas, Alton Mason would have if APR had existed then).

Here you go:  http://www.hoopscooponline.com/members/toprecruitingclassestodateclass2004.html

That's from June 2004, when Ooze had completed his senior season.  Francis has him as an 8 point player, which according to his definition is a player ranked between 11-40 in the incoming class regardless of whether they were a HS, Prep or JUCO player. 

Again you just aren't understanding what I'm saying.  The player himself is not a miss, the recruiting analyst missed on the player.  There's a difference there that you just can't seem to grasp.  Mbao isn't ranked at this point and thus there are very low expectations, so it would be nearly impossible for him to be a miss.  If someone out there ranked Mbao similar to how Francis had ranked Barro and he didn't put up the numbers to back up that ranking then it would be classified as a miss by the so called recruiting "expert".  The fact that Barro wasn't eligible at Julian and barely played AAU ball is irrelevant to whether or not that particular analyst missed him.  They saw fit to consider him among the 40 best players in that class, and he didn't put up those sort of results.  The circumstances that contribute to that really don't matter when looking at whether or not the analyst got their prediction right unless it was a catastrophic injury that prevented him from playing.

[Nukem2]

Here you go:  http://www.hoopscooponline.com/members/toprecruitingclassestodateclass2004.html

That's from June 2004, when Ooze had completed his senior season.  Francis has him as an 8 point player, which according to his definition is a player ranked between 11-40 in the incoming class regardless of whether they were a HS, Prep or JUCO player. 

Again you just aren't understanding what I'm saying.  The player himself is not a miss, the recruiting analyst missed on the player.  There's a difference there that you just can't seem to grasp.  Mbao isn't ranked at this point and thus there are very low expectations, so it would be nearly impossible for him to be a miss.  If someone out there ranked Mbao similar to how Francis had ranked Barro and he didn't put up the numbers to back up that ranking then it would be classified as a miss by the so called recruiting "expert".  The fact that Barro wasn't eligible at Julian and barely played AAU ball is irrelevant to whether or not that particular analyst missed him.  They saw fit to consider him among the 40 best players in that class, and he didn't put up those sort of results.  The circumstances that contribute to that really don't matter when looking at whether or not the analyst got their prediction right unless it was a catastrophic injury that prevented him from playing.

I think you ae missing the point.  Barro was not broadly rated as a senior coming out of Julian.  Hoopscoop was the only one that had him in or anywhere near the Top 100.  You need to use the RSCI rankings to get a better base for your analysis.  But, its your analysis, so do whatever you wish.  End of my commentary.

[bma725]

I think you ae missing the point.  Barro was not broadly rated as a senior coming out of Julian.  Hoopscoop was the only one that had him in or anywhere near the Top 100.  You need to use the RSCI rankings to get a better base for your analysis.  But, its your analysis, so do whatever you wish.  End of my commentary.

No, you are the one missing the point.  I'm not looking at whether the consensus rankings got it right, that's a near impossibility given the available data for the 1980s and 1990s.  To level the playing field, you have to look at all the rankings, not just the RSCI otherwise there are only 10 available years of data and you leave out several players that made Top 100 lists. 

What the other services rated Barro is not a concern when looking at whether or not HoopScoop hit or missed when they evaluated him as a senior.

[Nukem2]

No, you are the one missing the point.  I'm not looking at whether the consensus rankings got it right, that's a near impossibility given the available data for the 1980s and 1990s.  To level the playing field, you have to look at all the rankings, not just the RSCI otherwise there are only 10 available years of data and you leave out several players that made Top 100 lists. 

What the other services rated Barro is not a concern when looking at whether or not HoopScoop hit or missed when they evaluated him as a senior.

Whatever.  As I said, its your analysis and your ball.  BTW, Marshall Williams simply was never a full-time student-athlete at MU.  From that perspective, he is no different than Tyshawn Taylor or Nick Williams.  As Buzz williams commented recently when talking about the incoming recruits, anyone can attend summer sessions.

[MR.HAYWARD]

I completely agree with Nukem.  I dont think it makes sense to judge a player and his success as a hit or miss as a "top 100 player" if he makes only one list.  BMA you refer to the "hype" of a top 100 player.  I recall no hype surrounding Kinsella, Bell, Lott, or Ooze.  In fact i remeber reading articles where "gurus" frankly could not understand the Kinsella recruitment etc.  A player can be seen one time and have a good game and make a top 100 list or something but to be a concensus rsci player you have to admit is completely different. 

I realize the rsci is relatively new but it can be eaasily simulated, if nothing else a standard of 2 or 3 minimum top 100 lists to qulaify as a true top 100 talent elimintaes all the guys who really in no way shape or form were "top 100" guys.

Honestly, your criteria fro top 100 guys smacks right out of the Tom Crean school of self hype...in the sense that i am sure somewhere he has a list of all the top 100 kids he has signed and kinsella and Lott are right up there!  but cut thru the BS and i beleive your list will show concensus top 100 kids get it done.  I beleive the discussion of that over the last months is what spurned this whole review?  Again name th last non concensus top 100 kid to score 1000 points?  The rankings are pretty good name the last non top 100 kid to be a big time contributor or look at how few consensus top 100 busts we have had ...very few! 

[mu_hilltopper]

Jesus, you guys.  Take the ratings for what they are worth in your own minds.

If they are on a list, they are on a list.

[bma725]

For the love of god it had nothing to do with Tom Crean.  It had to do with the fact that there were no consensus rankings available for the period from 1980-1998, and despite what you think they cannot be easily simulated because just finding all the information needed to come up with a consensus ranking from that period is not only time consuming, it's nearly impossible.

Further, the whole reason not to use the consensus rankings is proven by your 1000 point argument.

None of the players listed below were consensus Top 100 players, yet all scored well over 1000 points.  The RSCI has been available since 1998, and none of the four players listed below made it during that time, yet they all scored well over 1000 points.  I realize Wardle was class of 1997, but he only made the one ranking as well, not consensus. 

Lazar Hayward - 1240...and counting
Dwyane Wade - 1281
Odartey Blankson - 1087
Cordell Henry - 1347
Brian Wardle - 1690

And don't give me the BS argument about how Hayward and Wade should have made it because they made multiple lists, players made the RSCI Top 100 all the time without being ranked by everyone.  They didn't do enough to get a consensus among the experts and qualify for the ranking.  Either you are a consensus player top 100 player or you aren't.  They weren't. 

[dsfire]

What will Butler have to do over the next couple of years in order to qualify as a hit?  I'll admit that I was surprised to see that HoopScoop had put him in the 41-70 range, as I thought he'd been an and-1 from Fulce's recruitment after spots opened up following Crean's departure (similar to the McNeal-Acker connection, minus the transfer).

From that impression I felt that two more years like this year being a solid 6th man would make him a success, but looking at who else falls in that 41-70 group indicates he should be starting at some point.  I have to wonder if HoopScoop may bump up jucos based upon their experience and perhaps a higher ranking for, say, a 2-year juco over a high school senior means the juco will be more valuable if you looked at both for the next 2 years, but not necessarily if you compared the juco's 2 to the high schooler's 4.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Jesus, you guys.  Take the ratings for what they are worth in your own minds.

If they are on a list, they are on a list.

Wrong again.

They are on he TOM CREAN list, not on any of the national lists.

[MR.HAYWARD]

"And don't give me the BS argument about how Hayward and Wade should have made it because they made multiple lists, players made the RSCI Top 100 all the time without being ranked by everyone.  They didn't do enough to get a consensus among the experts and qualify for the ranking.  Either you are a consensus player top 100 player or you aren't.  They weren't."

apparently you did not comprehend my post...I said forget the rsci, that making 2 or more lists would be enough.  The fact that guys like Kinsella, and Lott and others who were honorable mention all-state HS player are considered top 100 guys becuase they made on list is simply ludicrous.  Dwade making two top 50 lists is a completely different situation, Hayward missing many lists becuase they do not include Prep players is a whole other deal.  Wardle made a few lists as did cordell 

[Ready2Fly]

What I gather from this breakdown is that Hoopscoop is wildly inaccurate in their ratings, not that bma is being mean to the players by calling them a miss.  Barro was not a miss, Hoopscoop missed on Barro by rating him so high.

[Nukem2]

What I gather from this breakdown is that Hoopscoop is wildly inaccurate in their ratings, not that bma is being mean to the players by calling them a miss.  Barro was not a miss, Hoopscoop missed on Barro by rating him so high.

BMA, when did Hoopscoop rate Barro in its Top 40?  Must have been early, because Oooze did not play HS ball and sat out.  Hard to rank someone top 40 when they are out of view.  Agree with Ready2Fly.

[MR.HAYWARD]

nukem....

Ooze not playing HS basketball has absolutely nothing to do with making a list or not.  These kids are rarely if ever seen playing in HS games.  It would be nearly impossible to see all these kids in HS games anyway simply not enough days in the year.  Also, watching akid in a HS game is a waste of time.  What good does it do to watch a D! prospect light up 5 kids that will not play basketball after hS for 30 or more points ..man among boys situation?  IIRC CAron Bradley played 1 year of HS ball, maybe none? He made his name on the AAu circui.   Wish we had buzz back in those days.

Where you can really see how good a kid is at AAu type tourneys where  there are 10 college prospects on the court and how they fare and how they fare against each other and that type of competiton.  Additonally, a "guru" can go to a AAu tourney at Atlanta, boo williams, Spiece Run and Slam or where ever and literally see 50 or more Top 100 calibe rplayers and hundreds of other D1, DII, and DIII propspects.   Perfect example to a much lower level is Mark Millers write up on the Wisco stae AAu championships.  He was able to see all the the best players in the state go head to head over a weekend.  Something he could never have the time or money to go see them individually in HS games and what type of assemsnet do you get when they score 40 agaisnt 5 HS kids that will be working on a dairy farm after they graduate?

[Nukem2]

nukem....

Ooze not playing HS basketball has absolutely nothing to do with making a list or not.  These kids are rarely if ever seen playing in HS games.  It would be nearly impossible to see all these kids in HS games anyway simply not enough days in the year.  Also, watching akid in a HS game is a waste of time.  What good does it do to watch a D! prospect light up 5 kids that will not play basketball after hS for 30 or more points ..man among boys situation?  IIRC CAron Bradley played 1 year of HS ball, maybe none? He made his name on the AAu circui.   Wish we had buzz back in those days.

Where you can really see how good a kid is at AAu type tourneys where  there are 10 college prospects on the court and how they fare and how they fare against each other and that type of competiton.  Additonally, a "guru" can go to a AAu tourney at Atlanta, boo williams, Spiece Run and Slam or where ever and literally see 50 or more Top 100 calibe rplayers and hundreds of other D1, DII, and DIII propspects.   Perfect example to a much lower level is Mark Millers write up on the Wisco stae AAu championships.  He was able to see all the the best players in the state go head to head over a weekend.  Something he could never have the time or money to go see them individually in HS games and what type of assemsnet do you get when they score 40 agaisnt 5 HS kids that will be working on a dairy farm after they graduate?

Totally understand that.

[VegasWarrior77]

What I gather from this breakdown is that Hoopscoop is wildly inaccurate in their ratings.

+1

Unfortunately, this is the service that has us ranked as having the best recruiting class for 2009!