Explosions in Kiev

[MuggsyB]

0% chance.  Israel has nukes.

So has Israel never been attacked since they've had Nukes?

[ZiggysFryBoy]

0% chance.  Israel has nukes.

So does Ukraine.

Don't assume that putin, Xi, and the clerics are rational actors.

[Hards Alumni]

You don't think we can produce more oil here and essentially cripple him permanently?  He has no leverage without the Euro market.

Permanently is not realistic.  Siberia is a carbon rich area and MASSIVE.  Getting to it is a challenge.

Ideally, this is why we aim for a carbon neutral economy.  Less volatility is national security.  Germany should have never started closing down their nuclear power plants.

[Hards Alumni]

So does Ukraine.

Don't assume that putin, Xi, and the clerics are rational actors.

Incorrect.  Ukraine gave them up because we said we'd all ha e their backs if anything like this happened.  They never should have given them up.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Incorrect.  Ukraine gave them up because we said we'd all ha e their backs if anything like this happened.  They never should have given them up.

I stand corrected.   That was dumb.

Still think Iran could take advantage of Ukraine and Taiwan to attack israel.

[MU82]

It would be like a Scooper going into a cage match with Mike Tyson

Depends on the Scooper.

Rico would make make Tyson fade to Bolivian!

[Hards Alumni]

So has Israel never been attacked since they've had Nukes?

Not seriously, no.  And they've never "confirmed" officially that they have them.  But it is a widely accepted fact that they have them.

No one has successfully attacked Israel since the state was created after WW2.  The only attempts were Israel absolutely destroying the surrounding invaders and taking their territory in 1967 (I think this year).

Israel is no pushover.

[forgetful]

Would opening up Keystone and some of our other reserves make prices  rise to that level?

There isn't enough oil period. Maybe it isn't to those exact numbers, but you would see absurd increases in pricing. This would be particularly devastating for natural gas supplies.

Right now, Putin is still selling/delivering natural gas to Europe. If that ceases, it will be crippling to Europe and there isn't enough global production to mitigate the effects. Russia produces 18% of the entire world supply. Iran is the 3rd largest producer with 5% of the global supply.

I think here is where the oil is coming from to replace Russia's.  Russia's invasion is paving the way to a quick resolve.


Negotiations over the Iran nuclear deal are close to the end, and a deal appears possible
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/02/23/iran-us-nuclear-deal/

Not surprising and expected. Can't have massive sanctions against both Russia and Iran.

[Hards Alumni]

I stand corrected.   That was dumb.

Still think Iran could take advantage of Ukraine and Taiwan to attack israel.

Iran does make bad decisions and this would be a massive blunder.  I'd wager they attack Saudi Arabia before Israel.

[MuggsyB]

Incorrect.  Ukraine gave them up because we said we'd all ha e their backs if anything like this happened.  They never should have given them up.

I believe they got rid of them in the 90's.?  If they were given Nukes after 2014 do you think Putin would have never done this?  The guy is a scumbag and a sociopath.  Maybe a Denzel/Equalizer guy can pay him a little visit?

[MuggsyB]

Not seriously, no.  And they've never "confirmed" officially that they have them.  But it is a widely accepted fact that they have them.

No one has successfully attacked Israel since the state was created after WW2.  The only attempts were Israel absolutely destroying the surrounding invaders and taking their territory in 1967 (I think this year).

Israel is no pushover.

So you're not including anything before the early 70's ?  Or many terrorist attacks?  We have no idea what Iran would or would not do if they get or build  a Nuke. 

[Billy Hoyle]

my wife was texting with her brother last night as he's in military intelligence at the Pentagon. He said this is an "8 out of 10" in terms of global destabilization. A 10 would be use of nuclear weapons which he doesn't see happening.

"We've appeased Putin for too long, there's no going back."

[forgetful]

Iran will target Israel.

A more likely concern is Israel attacks Iran, especially if the world ends sanctions against Iran.

[Galway Eagle]

my wife was texting with her brother last night as he's in military intelligence at the Pentagon. He said this is an "8 out of 10" in terms of global destabilization. A 10 would be use of nuclear weapons which he doesn't see happening.

"We've appeased Putin for too long, there's no going back."

So I should start heading back to the boxing gym to prep for the draft?

[Hards Alumni]

So you're not including anything before the early 70's ?  Or many terrorist attacks?  We have no idea what Iran would or would not do if they get or build  a Nuke.

I'm confused as to what you're asking.  Israel is very capable of defending itself regionally.  Iran won't touch them because if things started to go bad for Israel, Tehran would get nuked.  If Iran gets nukes its just another world power that has them. 

Countries that have nukes don't fight other countries that have nukes.   So far.  Mutually assured destruction (MAD) is a helluva deterrent.

No one uses nukes for a very good reason.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I believe they got rid of them in the 90's.?  If they were given Nukes after 2014 do you think Putin would have never done this?  The guy is a scumbag and a sociopath.  Maybe a Denzel/Equalizer guy can pay him a little visit?

I think it's part of the Minsk Accords where Ukraine agreed to give the nukes back to Russia if Russia agrees that the borders of Ukraine are frozen and they will respect the current.  Russia obviously violated this treaty in 2014.

[MUeng]

A more likely concern is Israel attacks Iran, especially if the world ends sanctions against Iran.

that's an interesting flip to it, don't disagree. Israel would annihilate Iran if they tried something akin to an invasion. And the US would back them up. Taiwan has always been hanging out there and I agree that that scenario is the riskier one, given our steadfast support for Taiwan should such an invasion happen.

[MuggsyB]

I'm confused as to what you're asking.  Israel is very capable of defending itself regionally.  Iran won't touch them because if things started to go bad for Israel, Tehran would get nuked.  If Iran gets nukes its just another world power that has them. 

Countries that have nukes don't fight other countries that have nukes.   So far.  Mutually assured destruction (MAD) is a helluva deterrent.

No one uses nukes for a very good reason.

I don't  really make a distinction between proxy terrorist groups funded by Iran and Iran. 

[MUBurrow]

I don't  really make a distinction between proxy terrorist groups funded by Iran and Iran.

Do Saudi Arabia next.

[Billy Hoyle]

So I should start heading back to the boxing gym to prep for the draft?

I don't see a draft happening ever again. That said, if it did the usual pro-war hawks would probably refuse due to siding with Putin because that's what their Fox News overlords are telling them to do, and the doves who are now supporting military action would likely rush off to Canada.

[Hards Alumni]

I don't  really make a distinction between proxy terrorist groups funded by Iran and Iran.

What about thr ones funded by the US

[UWW2MU]

One of the things people fail to understand is the Ukrainian government does not have the undying loyalty of its people.

The government itself is a kleptocracy. Our own experience there was awful, with rank and file Ukrainians asking, "why should we fight for this country...they will just steal us blind." There was an incredible amount of apathy toward the country by its citizens due largely to the government's lack of an ability to deal with day-to-day problems of Ukrainians.

Our driver there needed funds to bribe the proctor so he could take and pass his medical boards. Left open was the question of whether you could fail the Ukrainian medical boards and still be certified by bribing the proctor. Our son was adopted near Luhansk and weighed 12 pounds at 14 months due to a complete lack of nutrition. He was warehoused and almost left for dead for the first year of his life. We could not travel for a week because we had to get enough nourishment into him so he could be strong enough to travel.

His orphanage director was indicted by the general prosecutor for accepting bribes that allowed tainted baby food into the orphanage. 31 children like my son died because of horrible food poisoning. They were buried in the back yard of the orphanage and he was caught only because some of the children were slated to go to America. This is the kind of problem that occurs in Ukraine every day. It makes Illinois look like the capital of good government.

The risk of over-committing to Ukraine is we end up in another Vietnam, where the government we support does not have the support of the people. The risk of under-committing is that we end up not confronting tyranny and end up surrendering our leadership role in the world, like we did at the end of World War I.

An eye opening, informative, and heartbreaking post.  Thanks for sharing this.

[WellsstreetWanderer]

Mufan i Hope that is true.   Meanwhile we hold the key to the energy issue as the US oil supply is almost limitless and could cripple Putin if we unleashed our resources. Russia has been described as a "gas station with a nuclear arsenal"  We could seriously curtail his business if we had the will.

Years ago I sailed with an engineer who was an oil expert and lectured around the world on the subject
In conversation ,he mentioned that he believed that oil was being created continuously. I pray for a non-military solution to this situation

[MuggsyB]

Regardless of our mistakes in the past we all need to support the current administration.  I'm very interested in what Biden will say today.  I'd like to hear more specifics about these sanctions and whether we can cripple their banking system and energy piggy bank permanently.

[jesmu84]

Target the oligarch assets across the globe.

OT: Iran? Really? I always find it silly when people disparage Iran and gladly accept our alliance with the Saudis

Also, Israel began openly attacking Syria today. So there's that