More conference realignment talk

[Coleman]

If there is an Oregon move, I'd bet on it being to the Big10.

Oregon and its Nike ties are a reasonably valuable asset and one the Big10 has looked at. If they thought it might be imminent that Oregon moves to the Big12, they may jump at them now.

Oregon and Washington to the Big10

Big 12 will probably make a play for Arizona or ASU

[Coleman]

The Athletic is reporting that while the Big 12 is still courting Pac-12 schools, what commissioner Brett Yormark "wants to sell his members on is UConn."

In UConn, Yormark sees something that other Big 12 leaders don’t. They think football first and have their doubts that UConn football can become relevant. The recent track record — 27-83 since 2013 — is hard to ignore. They see the success in men’s and women’s basketball as undeniably attractive, but it’s less easy to get them to buy the pitch that UConn adds value for this league, in part because these presidents, chancellors and ADs have spent the past year locked in on trying to land Power 5 football schools.

But Yormark sees an entry point into New York City. He sees a dominant basketball conference and big-time events at Madison Square Garden. He sees a future in which the Big 12 makes more money down the road by decoupling its media rights package and selling its basketball rights separately. Conference sources say he sees a sort of buy-low opportunity here, a bet that the Big 12 investing in UConn over the rest of the decade will drive up the conference’s value. For him, there’s no hesitation. There’s real conviction.

The Commish wanting UConn is necessary but not sufficient to getting them in the conference. At the end of the day, the Presidents and ADs will need to sign off. Not sure that will happen.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Oregon and Washington to the Big10

Big 12 will probably make a play for Arizona or ASU

I just don't see Oregon and Washington in the Big Ten anytime soon. They could have been added awhile ago - before their new media deal was finalized last year. That is a seven year, $7 billion payout that begins this year.  Their additions would have to add over $125 million annually to any media rights payout for each school to break even.  Are they really worth that much?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

It also applies to a school where basketball is the only sport a school federates (e.g., joins) in a conference, much as Navy is "football only" in the AAC but has a full collection of other programs elsewhere. There are no schools that I am aware of play only basketball within the confines of one Division I conference and park its other sports elsewhere.

Okay so you don't know this. It is a ncaa rule that you can't separate basketball from Olympic sports. So when someone says s conference would take a "basketball only" school,  it is already implied that they would be taking all the non revenue sports as well.

That being said,  that's the rule now. There's no saying that three rule couldn't change in the future

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Credit to Andrei for sharing this article with me: https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/colorado-leaving-pac-12-to-join-big-12

Two interesting points:

Besides losing Colorado and potentially others to the Big 12, the Pac-12’s biggest remaining brand names — Oregon and Washington — held meetings in August with the Big Ten about potential membership, Action Network reported.

The Ducks and Huskies already have been “vetted and approved” by the Big Ten to join the conference, sources said. However, the Big Ten does not want “the Pac-12’s blood on its hands,” by taking Oregon and Washington before any other schools leave the Pac-12, sources said.

If these sources are correct, it sounds like the B1G has already decided that they will be adding Washington and Oregon at some point in the future, only question is when.

In the Big 12’s new Grant of Rights, ESPN’s contract guaranteed pro-rata — the same revenue ($20 million per school annually) — if the Big 12 added additional Power 5 schools. FOX was not contractually obligated to match its revenue ($11.7 million per school annually), but the network has agreed to do so if the Big 12 added other Power 5 schools, sources told Action Network.

This guarantees Colorado — and any other Power 5 schools moving to the Big 12 — a full media rights share of nearly $32 million in the Big 12 starting in 2025, sources said.

If these sources are correct, there are two big takeaways:

1. ESPN and FOX is actively incentivizing the Big 12 (and probably the SEC and B1G as well) to kill the ACC and P12

2. No way UConn is getting an invite any time soon, at least not as a full member.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

If these sources are correct, it sounds like the B1G has already decided that they will be adding Washington and Oregon at some point in the future, only question is when.

Well then I guess I would be wrong.

But that really is a dumb reason to not invite them now.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Credit to Andrei for sharing this article with me: https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/colorado-leaving-pac-12-to-join-big-12

Two interesting points:

If these sources are correct, it sounds like the B1G has already decided that they will be adding Washington and Oregon at some point in the future, only question is when.

If these sources are correct, there are two big takeaways:

1. ESPN and FOX is actively incentivizing the Big 12 (and probably the SEC and B1G as well) to kill the ACC and P12

2. No way UConn is getting an invite any time soon, at least not as a full member.

The 2 network "Requiem for the ACC" special is going to be awesome.

[rgoode57]

It may be true that UConn eventually gets a Big 12 invitation, but it is hard for me to imagine given UConn's pathetic football program. But, strange things happen all the time in college sports. Perhaps there will come a day when universities put their football programs in one conference and basketball programs in a different conference.  Actually, that might make a lot of sense. One thing I am certain of, however, is that the NCAA will not be the source of a solution nor even a meaningful contributor toward a solution.

[Coleman]

It may be true that UConn eventually gets a Big 12 invitation, but it is hard for me to imagine given UConn's pathetic football program. But, strange things happen all the time in college sports. Perhaps there will come a day when universities put their football programs in one conference and basketball programs in a different conference.  Actually, that might make a lot of sense. One thing I am certain of, however, is that the NCAA will not be the source of a solution nor even a meaningful contributor toward a solution.

There was a really good article in the Athletic. The TLDR is that The Big 12 wants to separate its TV deals for football and basketball to maximize revenue and that adding UConn would bring value to the basketball TV deal. Super weird in this day and age of football being king, but it really is a basketball play at the end of the day.

Separating out the TV deals also opens the door to inviting non-football members at some point.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Credit to Andrei for sharing this article with me: https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/colorado-leaving-pac-12-to-join-big-12

Two interesting points:

If these sources are correct, it sounds like the B1G has already decided that they will be adding Washington and Oregon at some point in the future, only question is when.

If these sources are correct, there are two big takeaways:

1. ESPN and FOX is actively incentivizing the Big 12 (and probably the SEC and B1G as well) to kill the ACC and P12

2. No way UConn is getting an invite any time soon, at least not as a full member.

Someone was reporting locally that ESPN this time around was pushing the Big 12 to take UConn.  No idea if true and hadn't seen elsewhere..

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Someone was reporting locally that ESPN this time around was pushing the Big 12 to take UConn.  No idea if true and hadn't seen elsewhere..

If the article I posted is correct, I'd be skeptical of that report. ESPN is offering $20 million dollars to the Big 12 to take Power 5 schools and $0 to take non-power 5 schools. If they really wanted the B12 to take UConn, they'd pony up the $20 mil.

[MuMark]

Well then I guess I would be wrong.

But that really is a dumb reason to not invite them now.

Yeah……if they didn’t want to kill the PAC 12 they might have considered not stealing UCLA and USC.

“ Yes officer I did stab him……but I left before he was dead so I don’t think a murder charge is really appropriate “

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

There was a really good article in the Athletic. The TLDR is that The Big 12 wants to separate its TV deals for football and basketball to maximize revenue and that adding UConn would bring value to the basketball TV deal. Super weird in this day and age of football being king, but it really is a basketball play at the end of the day.

Separating out the TV deals also opens the door to inviting non-football members at some point.

You'd think if you could maximize your media deals by separating football and basketball packages, that it would have been done already.

[Herman Cain]

San Diego State, SMU , Fresno State and UNLV discussed

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/pac-12-expansion-candidates-san-diego-state-smu-among-targets-to-stabilize-league-after-colorado-exit/amp/

[Uncle Rico]

San Diego State, SMU , Fresno State and UNLV discussed

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/pac-12-expansion-candidates-san-diego-state-smu-among-targets-to-stabilize-league-after-colorado-exit/amp/

Dumpster diving

[El Guerrero 2]

1. ESPN and FOX is actively incentivizing the Big 12 (and probably the SEC and B1G as well) to kill the ACC and PAC12.

I don’t get this part. Why would ESPN want to kill off 2 of the 6 big conferences? Wouldn’t you want more conferences chasing the same TV revenue? If I’m a buyer of content, I want more content to choose between and play against.

I guess it may be to keep Apple and Netlix out, but if so they’re already leaving the door wide open with the Pac12 so that doesn’t seem to be it.

[Herman Cain]

One thing the Pac-12 has in its favor, is its official status as an Autonomy Conference. Allows for more flexibility in rules etc as well as guaranteed January 1 Bowl. This is where the Power 5 name comes from. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I don’t get this part. Why would ESPN want to kill off 2 of the 6 big conferences? Wouldn’t you want more conferences chasing the same TV revenue? If I’m a buyer of content, I want more content to choose between and play against.

I guess it may be to keep Apple and Netlix out, but if so they’re already leaving the door wide open with the Pac12 so that doesn’t seem to be it.

Same reason they incentivized the ACC to kill the old Big East, consolidation of properties.  Get the top programs all in a few conferences.  That way you get the blue bloods without having to pay for the BCs, Oregon States,  and South Floridas of the world

[WhiteTrash]

I don’t get this part. Why would ESPN want to kill off 2 of the 6 big conferences? Wouldn’t you want more conferences chasing the same TV revenue? If I’m a buyer of content, I want more content to choose between and play against.

I guess it may be to keep Apple and Netlix out, but if so they’re already leaving the door wide open with the Pac12 so that doesn’t seem to be it.

Your thoughts on supply and demand are correct. I think you give ESPN too much credit for being business savvy.

That may change as it looks like Disney is going to stop paying ESPN's Visa bill and kick them out of the basement bedroom. ESPN is going have to live within their means not their wants.

[brewcity77]

I don’t get this part. Why would ESPN want to kill off 2 of the 6 big conferences? Wouldn’t you want more conferences chasing the same TV revenue? If I’m a buyer of content, I want more content to choose between and play against.

I guess it may be to keep Apple and Netlix out, but if so they’re already leaving the door wide open with the Pac12 so that doesn’t seem to be it.

Fewer contracts to chase makes it easier to monopolize the market. And as the Big 12, SEC, and Big 10 have all signed new rights deals in the last 12 months, it means ESPN really doesn't have to do any more bidding any time soon.

As far as the Pac-12, they're just turning it into the American 2.0. If the Big 12 added 3 more schools (say Arizona, ASU, Utah), it would essentially kill the league. At that point, there's no reason for the Big 10 to hold off on Oregon and Washington. Suddenly the Pac-12 is left with a conference of Stanford, Cal, Oregon State, and Washington State. There's nothing they can add to that to make it a viable high-major, even if they got their pick of the very best Group of 5 schools.

[79Warrior]

Your thoughts on supply and demand are correct. I think you give ESPN too much credit for being business savvy.

That may change as it looks like Disney is going to stop paying ESPN's Visa bill and kick them out of the basement bedroom. ESPN is going have to live within their means not their wants.

Igor looking for a partner, not a sale. ABC television network on the block. Iger loves sports, started as a scheduler for ABC Sports back in the day. Disney will maintain an interest.

[WhiteTrash]

Igor looking for a partner, not a sale. ABC television network on the block. Iger loves sports, started as a scheduler for ABC Sports back in the day. Disney will maintain an interest.

I thought the article in WSJ said either partner or sale, but the overall point stands I believe. Unless the partner is LIV, ESPN is going to have to pay its own bills. The Bank of Mickey Mouse is being shut off.   

[79Warrior]

I thought the article in WSJ said either partner or sale, but the overall point stands I believe. Unless the partner is LIV, ESPN is going to have to pay its own bills. The Bank of Mickey Mouse is being shut off.

Watch his interview from Sun Valley. He was pretty clear. disney is not alone by the way. Other than Comcast, name a legacy media company whose stock in not a dumpster fire.

[MU82]

And even Comcast stock is down 5% since January 2020. Tough industry.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I thought the article in WSJ said either partner or sale, but the overall point stands I believe. Unless the partner is LIV, ESPN is going to have to pay its own bills. The Bank of Mickey Mouse is being shut off.   

Isn’t what ESPN is seeking more and less a hedge against the massive value of their rights payouts? That by partnering with some of the leagues / conferences, they can be sheltered on a potential downside while sharing in a potential upside?