More conference realignment talk

[WhiteTrash]

In the overall scheme of things, the major conference realignments have been a relatively recent phenomenon, and I don't see them as a positive from a spectator's perspective.

I agree, but until viewership and money falls off our opinion seems irrelevant to university presidents.

Maybe the PAC-12 is the turning point.   

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

 

I go back a long way. From the 50's when I first was aware of college sports until the mid 90's, the Big Ten (which is what I followed most closely) had the same 10 teams. There were great rivalries that were renewed almost every year. The winner of the football championship went to the Rose Bowl and the winner in basketball went to the NCAA tournament. The other major conferences were also stable, and each had storied rivalries like USC-UCLA in the Pac 8, Nebraska-Oklahoma in the Big 8, Texas-Arkansas in the SWC, Alabama-Tennessee in the SEC, etc.

In the overall scheme of things, the major conference realignments have been a relatively recent phenomenon, and I don't see them as a positive from a spectator's perspective.

By relatively recent, you mean thirty years - an entire generation - then yes.  I could even go back further because the "Pac 8" stopped being called that in the late 70s.

[muwarrior69]

Really can't do that without making them employees and having a CBA in place.

https://delco.today/2023/02/trey-johnson-student-athletes/

A lot of changes coming down the road.

[wisblue]

By relatively recent, you mean thirty years - an entire generation - then yes.  I could even go back further because the "Pac 8" stopped being called that in the late 70s.

They went from the PAC 8 to the PAC 10 in the 70s when the Arizona schools joined. So there were about 50 years with the only change being adding those two teams.

Similar to the Big 10 which went over 50 years with just the addition of Penn State in 1990

I enjoyed the stability and tradition of those years much more than the volatility of the last 10-15 that have created unwieldy conferences and destroyed traditional rivalries.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

They went from the PAC 8 to the PAC 10 in the 70s when the Arizona schools joined. So there were about 50 years with the only change being adding those two teams.

Similar to the Big 10 which went over 50 years with just the addition of Penn State in 1990

I enjoyed the stability and tradition of those years much more than the volatility of the last 10-15 that have created unwieldy conferences and destroyed traditional rivalries.

You are only looking at two conferences though, but the landscape of all of college sports has been in flux since the early 1990s. The Big Ten, SEC and ACC all added teams.  The SWC fell apart and helped to form the Big 12. The Big East added football. Marquette was a member of three conferences in less than a decade!

I think you are engaging in a bit of nostalgia because in reality, this stuff has been in constant flux for much longer than its been stable.

[SaveOD238]

You guys all are missing the opportunity.

When the SEC comes calling for North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Miami, the ACC will implode.

Virginia and the Green Scum will end up in the Big 10.

As I said before, Val needs to put on her party dress and head to Durham, NC and spend some time with Duke. Then she needs to go across the state and visit Winston-Salem and Wake Forest. Neither are football schools with anything more than a marginally discernable heartbeat. Their basketball would fit in well with the Big East and make us a true beast of a conference.

The rest of the ACC will end up in the AAC.

This is really the next domino to fall.  And because getting out of the Grant of Rights probably means dissolving the conference, it makes poaching the remnants a lot easier.

Thinking about the teams in the ACC that might be available leads me to three categories:

1. Highly Valuable Football Schools / Big Name State Universities: UNC, Virginia, Florida St, Miami, Clemson
2. See above, but a step down in value: Louisville, NC State, Pitt, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech (they're almost the top tier simply because Atlanta = $$$)
3. Regional private(ish) schools: Syracuse, Duke, Wake Forest, Boston College
4. The Outlier: Notre Dame

Group 1 and Group 2 will be the schools that vote to dissolve to pursue the SEC or Big10.  It's possible some of Group 2 don't make the initial cut, if each conference takes 4, 2 of those will be left out.  Notre Dame might also be one of those, but if they desire to remain football independent that won't happen.

Whatever is left is likely to find a home in the Big East (Duke, Wake, BC, Notre Dame, Pitt, and Cuse make a lot of sense) or a more "national" conference like the Big 12 (Louisville, Virginia Tech, maybe Pitt, NC State all would fit) or AAC (no one wants this).

The more I think about it the more I love this possibility.

[DFW HOYA]

BC? Pass. They were the first ones to jump ship in 2003. No NCAA bids since 2009.

Let them struggle.

[Scoop Snoop]

BC? Pass. They were the first ones to jump ship in 2003. No NCAA bids since 2009.

Let them struggle.

In addition to your 2 excellent points (Herman will love that!), the admin seems to have "who gives a rat's ass?" attitude towards their sport teams. The only plus is a lucrative market, but if, like DP, a team is consistently bad, it waters down the market factor. Neither the Chicago Tribune nor the Washington Post seem interested enough to even post short stories about the games of the local BE teams, and I would guess the Boston Globe doesn't waste time on BC.

[wisblue]

You are only looking at two conferences though, but the landscape of all of college sports has been in flux since the early 1990s. The Big Ten, SEC and ACC all added teams.  The SWC fell apart and helped to form the Big 12. The Big East added football. Marquette was a member of three conferences in less than a decade!

I think you are engaging in a bit of nostalgia because in reality, this stuff has been in constant flux for much longer than its been stable.

I agree about the nostalgia, but the changes in the last 15-20 years have been much more frequent and dramatic than the previous 50.

IMHO adding a team here and there (often from teams that were independents or in minor conferences) is a lot different than the changes that involve multiple teams going from one major conference to another and resulting in conferences of 14 teams or more.

My admittedly old fashioned idea of a sports conference is one in which every team plays every other team once a year in football and home and home in basketball. How can you feel like you’re in the same conference with a team when your football teams don’t meet for a couple of years?

[Coleman]

I agree about the nostalgia, but the changes in the last 15-20 years have been much more frequent and dramatic than the previous 50.

You are correct. Conferences have always changed, but the changes have been way faster and dramatic as of late.

[muwarrior69]

This is really the next domino to fall.  And because getting out of the Grant of Rights probably means dissolving the conference, it makes poaching the remnants a lot easier.

Thinking about the teams in the ACC that might be available leads me to three categories:

1. Highly Valuable Football Schools / Big Name State Universities: UNC, Virginia, Florida St, Miami, Clemson
2. See above, but a step down in value: Louisville, NC State, Pitt, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech (they're almost the top tier simply because Atlanta = $$$)
3. Regional private(ish) schools: Syracuse, Duke, Wake Forest, Boston College
4. The Outlier: Notre Dame

Group 1 and Group 2 will be the schools that vote to dissolve to pursue the SEC or Big10.  It's possible some of Group 2 don't make the initial cut, if each conference takes 4, 2 of those will be left out.  Notre Dame might also be one of those, but if they desire to remain football independent that won't happen.

Whatever is left is likely to find a home in the Big East (Duke, Wake, BC, Notre Dame, Pitt, and Cuse make a lot of sense) or a more "national" conference like the Big 12 (Louisville, Virginia Tech, maybe Pitt, NC State all would fit) or AAC (no one wants this).

The more I think about it the more I love this possibility.

I doubt this will happen. Why would football schools join a non-football conference when the Big 12 would be so much more attractive.

The courts  look like they are leaning in the direction that athletes would be considered employees. In fact I wonder if the NCAA as we know it will even exist after 2032, when the TV rights to their Basketball Tournament expires. If the football schools were smart they would emulate the NFL model and form one super conference and negotiate contracts like the NFL across multiple networks and streaming services and run their own championship playoff.

If there is money to be made in mens basketball I have no idea what a National tournament would look like, but I doubt there will be an NCAA as we know it to run it and which schools would be allowed to participate.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I doubt this will happen. Why would football schools join a non-football conference when the Big 12 would be so much more attractive.

Why do you think the B12 would be interested in Duke, Wake, BC or Syracuse?

[muwarrior69]

Why do you think the B12 would be interested in Duke, Wake, BC or Syracuse?

Duke and Syracuse are not much different than Kansas and basketball is what the league at present is known for. Do you think the Big East would take BC and Wake?

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Duke and Syracuse are not much different than Kansas and basketball is what the league at present is known for. Do you think the Big East would take BC and Wake?

The Big 12 would invite programs that significant expand their viewership on their most important product - football. They aren't taking small private schools with limited football success.

I have no idea what the BE would do if the decision came to pass.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The Big 12 Commish said some interesting things not too long ago. Mentioned he wanted to rethink how they sell their media rights and that they should be selling basketball and football rights separately. I'm not sure what that means practically,  but am curious about the potential implications

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

The Big 12 Commish said some interesting things not too long ago. Mentioned he wanted to rethink how they sell their media rights and that they should be selling basketball and football rights separately. I'm not sure what that means practically,  but am curious about the potential implications

Do the networks and streamers want to buy them separately? 

[forgetful]

Really can't do that without making them employees and having a CBA in place.

Actually pretty easy to do in principle. Treat them like Graduate student TAs, who agree to accept a stipend (and scholarship) under agreement that they do not do any outside work.

Set an NCAA wide cap on the stipend.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Do the networks and streamers want to buy them separately?

I don't know, that's why I'm not sure what he means practically. Not sure anything comes of his comments but curious to see if anything does

[Dr. Blackheart]

The Big East at ten years.  Time flies but this is an interesting coaches' perspective when things seemed bleak at the start (and MU was in the crapper). Unbelievable job by Val and her staff.

https://www.bigeast.com/news/2023/3/7/mens-basketball-new-big-east-at-10-years-mission-accomplished.aspx

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Actually pretty easy to do in principle. Treat them like Graduate student TAs, who agree to accept a stipend (and scholarship) under agreement that they do not do any outside work.

Set an NCAA wide cap on the stipend.

So...in other words, make them employees.  And the NCAA would not be able to unilaterally cap the stipend.  That's illegal.

[dgies9156]

Thinking about the teams in the ACC that might be available leads me to three categories:

1. Highly Valuable Football Schools / Big Name State Universities: UNC, Virginia, Florida St, Miami, Clemson
2. See above, but a step down in value: Louisville, NC State, Pitt, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech (they're almost the top tier simply because Atlanta = $$$)
3. Regional private(ish) schools: Syracuse, Duke, Wake Forest, Boston College
4. The Outlier: Notre Dame

Group 1 and Group 2 will be the schools that vote to dissolve to pursue the SEC or Big10.  It's possible some of Group 2 don't make the initial cut, if each conference takes 4, 2 of those will be left out.  Notre Dame might also be one of those, but if they desire to remain football independent that won't happen.

Whatever is left is likely to find a home in the Big East (Duke, Wake, BC, Notre Dame, Pitt, and Cuse make a lot of sense) or a more "national" conference like the Big 12 (Louisville, Virginia Tech, maybe Pitt, NC State all would fit) or AAC (no one wants this).

The more I think about it the more I love this possibility.

Brother Save OD:

Interesting breakdown, so please indulge me as I put my spin on it:

1) The Green Slime (Notre Dame) is not an outlier. They're going to learn really quick that the only way the Irish are able to get 12 annual football opponents is by fully joining a conference. Period. Hello, Big 10.

2) For rivalry, television and name recognition, the SEC will want North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Miami. North Carolina is like Kentucky, an occasionally good football name but a major basketball power. Imagine UK and North Carolina playing twice a year. You don't think that has ratings power? Florida State, Miami and current SEC Gator, UF, would make a nice rivalry triangle while Clemson, South Carolina and North Carolina will be fun to watch in football and in basketball. Plus, I can't imagine the SEC wanting a TV interloper to poach Miami and Florida State.

3) Duke and Wake are the Vanderbilts of the ACC. The SEC doesn't want any more of THAT! Vandy is an SEC legacy gives them credibility but would never be allowed today. Duke and Wake would give them low TV ratings. For these two schools, realignment will create the same cross-roads UConn faced: let your failing football program drive some crazy vision of revenue or do the right thing and join the Big East.

4) The Big Ten and SEC will fight for Virginia but it just means more to the Big Ten, especially with Notre Dame joining them. As much as Virginia fashions itself as a southern school, it fits in far better with the BIG than it does with most SEC institutions. Plus, the BIG needs the Virginia TV market more than the SEC does.

5) Everyone else in layers 2 and 3 will be driven by football. Most, including Georgia Tech, Boston College and Syracuse, hang on to a long-distant football tradition that for the most part harks back to a more quaint time. Louisville has been struggling to be a big-time football power and will go to the AAC or Big 12 in hopes of maintaining it.

All this said, with the possible exception of Duke and Wake, football will be the driver in realignment. Duke and Wake, divorced from a big-time football contract (I can't see anyone picking them up who has a wonderfully large football agreement) will do a UConn and focus on basketball.

[Oldgym]

The Big East at ten years.  Time flies but this is an interesting coaches' perspective when things seemed bleak at the start (and MU was in the crapper). Unbelievable job by Val and her staff.

https://www.bigeast.com/news/2023/3/7/mens-basketball-new-big-east-at-10-years-mission-accomplished.aspx

“We don’t have ACC money, we don’t have SEC money and that’s who we’re competing against in basketball,” Ackerman said. “And I think that’s a tribute to the league, too, because in spite of that resource differential, we’re still performing at this level. Again, our schools get the credit for figuring out a way to get that done.

Loved reading this. Every time I become convinced that football money is going to burn to the ground whatever is good about college athletics, I'm reminded that this version of the BE somehow 1) exists, and 2) makes no apologies.

[muwarrior69]

Brother Save OD:

Interesting breakdown, so please indulge me as I put my spin on it:

1) The Green Slime (Notre Dame) is not an outlier. They're going to learn really quick that the only way the Irish are able to get 12 annual football opponents is by fully joining a conference. Period. Hello, Big 10.

2) For rivalry, television and name recognition, the SEC will want North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Miami. North Carolina is like Kentucky, an occasionally good football name but a major basketball power. Imagine UK and North Carolina playing twice a year. You don't think that has ratings power? Florida State, Miami and current SEC Gator, UF, would make a nice rivalry triangle while Clemson, South Carolina and North Carolina will be fun to watch in football and in basketball. Plus, I can't imagine the SEC wanting a TV interloper to poach Miami and Florida State.

3) Duke and Wake are the Vanderbilts of the ACC. The SEC doesn't want any more of THAT! Vandy is an SEC legacy gives them credibility but would never be allowed today. Duke and Wake would give them low TV ratings. For these two schools, realignment will create the same cross-roads UConn faced: let your failing football program drive some crazy vision of revenue or do the right thing and join the Big East.

4) The Big Ten and SEC will fight for Virginia but it just means more to the Big Ten, especially with Notre Dame joining them. As much as Virginia fashions itself as a southern school, it fits in far better with the BIG than it does with most SEC institutions. Plus, the BIG needs the Virginia TV market more than the SEC does.

5) Everyone else in layers 2 and 3 will be driven by football. Most, including Georgia Tech, Boston College and Syracuse, hang on to a long-distant football tradition that for the most part harks back to a more quaint time. Louisville has been struggling to be a big-time football power and will go to the AAC or Big 12 in hopes of maintaining it.

All this said, with the possible exception of Duke and Wake, football will be the driver in realignment. Duke and Wake, divorced from a big-time football contract (I can't see anyone picking them up who has a wonderfully large football agreement) will do a UConn and focus on basketball.

You don't think the Big 12 would go after Duke? Their football is no better than Kansas.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

There is a difference between inviting a new school and dealing with one that is already in the conference.

[SaveOD238]

Brother Save OD:

Interesting breakdown, so please indulge me as I put my spin on it:

1) The Green Slime (Notre Dame) is not an outlier. They're going to learn really quick that the only way the Irish are able to get 12 annual football opponents is by fully joining a conference. Period. Hello, Big 10.

I also think this is likely, but I won't believe it until I see it.

2) For rivalry, television and name recognition, the SEC will want North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Miami. North Carolina is like Kentucky, an occasionally good football name but a major basketball power. Imagine UK and North Carolina playing twice a year. You don't think that has ratings power? Florida State, Miami and current SEC Gator, UF, would make a nice rivalry triangle while Clemson, South Carolina and North Carolina will be fun to watch in football and in basketball. Plus, I can't imagine the SEC wanting a TV interloper to poach Miami and Florida State.

3) Duke and Wake are the Vanderbilts of the ACC. The SEC doesn't want any more of THAT! Vandy is an SEC legacy gives them credibility but would never be allowed today. Duke and Wake would give them low TV ratings. For these two schools, realignment will create the same cross-roads UConn faced: let your failing football program drive some crazy vision of revenue or do the right thing and join the Big East.

4) The Big Ten and SEC will fight for Virginia but it just means more to the Big Ten, especially with Notre Dame joining them. As much as Virginia fashions itself as a southern school, it fits in far better with the BIG than it does with most SEC institutions. Plus, the BIG needs the Virginia TV market more than the SEC does.

5) Everyone else in layers 2 and 3 will be driven by football. Most, including Georgia Tech, Boston College and Syracuse, hang on to a long-distant football tradition that for the most part harks back to a more quaint time. Louisville has been struggling to be a big-time football power and will go to the AAC or Big 12 in hopes of maintaining it.

All this said, with the possible exception of Duke and Wake, football will be the driver in realignment. Duke and Wake, divorced from a big-time football contract (I can't see anyone picking them up who has a wonderfully large football agreement) will do a UConn and focus on basketball.

The problem is that of the teams you listed there aren't enough votes to blow up the ACC.  Notre Dame + Virginia (Big 10) and UNC, FSU, Miami, Clemson (SEC) is only 6 votes.  The real movement will happen when someone realizes that to get those 6, they will need to also offer 2 of NC State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Syracuse, or Pitt a spot in the Big 10 or SEC.  I think NC State could make sense as a consolation prize to NC, ditto Virginia Tech for Virginia.  And I still think Georgia Tech might offer the academics and market that the Big 10 desires.

Duke, Wake, BC are screwed.  Some of Louisville, Cuse, Pitt, VT will also be left in the cold.