More conference realignment talk

[Scoop Snoop]

It's about time to link to this gem once again...

https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=33574.msg408366#msg408366

Thanks for the laughs!

I love the bit about how Marquette would have to "beg for mercy" to get an invite to the A10 and also "half-baked new conference in a new world" of college bball....The rest was comical as well but those were my favorites.

[4everwarriors]

Still waitin' on da Tommy and Joani Crean Memorial Soccer Megaplex, aina?

[Uncle Rico]

It’s a $20 Million, 25k square foot facility for Athletics, that will go next to their basketball arena. Their $5 Million Soccer Building (behind the South goal) is expected to be completed in December 2021. Their $100 Million Basketball Arena (which includes other things) opened in 2008.

That’ll be a nice addition to the Missouri Valley

[UWW2MU]

Don't overthink this.  Val is going shopping and she's not looking at Macy's (Temple) or Kohl's (SLU) or Walmart (Dayton) .

She'll visit Barney's (Notre Dame) and Bergdorf Goodman (Kansas) and end up buying at Sak's (Gonzaga)

#DoneDeal.

ha, great post.


Except you may have swayed me on SLU.  Kohl's is a good place to fill out essentials in a wardrobe.   

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

It's about time to link to this gem once again...

https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=33574.msg408366#msg408366

Man, there was a lot of bad takes in that thread but more in UDPride's one post than the rest of the thread combined.

[Galway Eagle]

It's about time to link to this gem once again...

https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=33574.msg408366#msg408366

Didn't he have one other epic fail of a post? Or am I thinking of another poster?

[Spotcheck Billy]

Didn't he have one other epic fail of a post? Or am I thinking of another poster?

3 out of the 4 UDPRIDE's posts fit the bill: https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?action=profile;area=showposts;u=2479

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Don't overthink this.  Val is going shopping and she's not looking at Macy's (Temple) or Kohl's (SLU) or Walmart (Dayton) .

She'll visit Barney's (Notre Dame) and Bergdorf Goodman (Kansas) and end up buying at Sak's (Gonzaga)

#DoneDeal.

Who's Von Maur?

[Galway Eagle]

3 out of the 4 UDPRIDE's posts fit the bill: https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?action=profile;area=showposts;u=2479

Absolute classics

[Dr. Blackheart]

3 out of the 4 UDPRIDE's posts fit the bill: https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?action=profile;area=showposts;u=2479

Unfortunately the one that did was about that Craptacular game against them at the former Sears Centre in lovely Hoffman Estates.

[JWags85]

Is Groin_Pull around still around as a different name or did he stamp his feet breathlessly insisting Nova and GTown were off to the ACC so many times that he spun off and disappeared in anger like Rumplestiltskin?

[The Equalizer]

Fitzgerald made an NCAA tourney and 2 NITs in the span of 3 years in the mid 90s.  Dan Monson made an E8.  Then Few took over and escalated the program further.

And Few isn't 60 yet.  So figure minimum 5-10 years of Few level success, plus potential exposure and money, not to mention the new NLI environment where Gonzaga has become a brand name and got top 5 recruits/lottery picks in multiple years. 

Its not like Few retires and suddenly Gonzaga becomes Canisius.  They just had an assistant become the head coach at Arizona.  They will have myriad options internally and externally.

History suggests that it's going to be harder for Gonzaga to maintain status than you suggest.  Villanova is the exception--not the norm.  And even they had to endure Rollie's decline and Steve Lappas.

Seton Hall (1989), St. Johns (1985), DePaul (1979), Butler (2011), Providence (1987) are all former Final Four teams that have changed coaches (multiple times) and haven't sniffed that level of success since. 

Only Villanova (2016, 2018) Marquette (2003) and Georgtown (2007) have been back to a final four under a new coach, but you would hardly consider MU and GU to be national powers today.

Let's face it, looking at Gonzaga, we're not talking Kansas, UNC, or Kentucky here (or even UCLA, or Indiana). Gonzaga has no built-in national fan base that will carry them forward. They're a small school with about 5000 undergraduate students and 58,000 living alumni. Their national following is no more permanent than post-Carnesecca St. Johns, post-McGuire Marquette, post-Meyer DePaul, or post-Thompson Georgetown.

At this point, I don't think you could even argue that Gonzaga will maintain their current level of success for the next ten years even if Few sticks around if they wind up joining the Big East. They're not going to waltz through the Big East schedule like they have in the WCC.  Even Villanova averages 4 losses a year in the Big East.  Which means Gonzaga will get lower NCAA seeds that they've been accustomed to.  Which means stiffer competition in the early rounds of the tournament and fewer deep runs.   

Furthermore, the national attention they receive from being a #1 ranked team goes away.  The attention from being an undefeated team goes away.  At best, they're just like any other good P6 conferenc team. Every conference loss knocks them down in the rankings, so the #1 rank they inherited due to attrition over the conference season goes away.  Top 20? Sure.  Top 10?  Maybe. 

I'd even go so far as to suggest it doesn't really matter what team(s) the Big East invites--as long as they don't show DePaul-like ineptitude in managing their athletics program, the Big East provides a platform that would give any team joining very strong probability of achieving success.  You can't look at who the teams are now--just look at whether they can spend on facilities, coaching and program promotion like Butler or Marquette or Xavier or St. Johns, etc. 

[JWags85]

History suggests that it's going to be harder for Gonzaga to maintain status than you suggest.  Villanova is the exception--not the norm.  And even they had to endure Rollie's decline and Steve Lappas.

Seton Hall (1989), St. Johns (1985), DePaul (1979), Butler (2011), Providence (1987) are all former Final Four teams that have changed coaches (multiple times) and haven't sniffed that level of success since. 

Only Villanova (2016, 2018) Marquette (2003) and Georgtown (2007) have been back to a final four under a new coach, but you would hardly consider MU and GU to be national powers today.

Let's face it, looking at Gonzaga, we're not talking Kansas, UNC, or Kentucky here (or even UCLA, or Indiana). Gonzaga has no built-in national fan base that will carry them forward. They're a small school with about 5000 undergraduate students and 58,000 living alumni. Their national following is no more permanent than post-Carnesecca St. Johns, post-McGuire Marquette, post-Meyer DePaul, or post-Thompson Georgetown.

At this point, I don't think you could even argue that Gonzaga will maintain their current level of success for the next ten years even if Few sticks around if they wind up joining the Big East. They're not going to waltz through the Big East schedule like they have in the WCC.  Even Villanova averages 4 losses a year in the Big East.  Which means Gonzaga will get lower NCAA seeds that they've been accustomed to.  Which means stiffer competition in the early rounds of the tournament and fewer deep runs.   

Furthermore, the national attention they receive from being a #1 ranked team goes away.  The attention from being an undefeated team goes away.  At best, they're just like any other good P6 conferenc team. Every conference loss knocks them down in the rankings, so the #1 rank they inherited due to attrition over the conference season goes away.  Top 20? Sure.  Top 10?  Maybe. 

I'd even go so far as to suggest it doesn't really matter what team(s) the Big East invites--as long as they don't show DePaul-like ineptitude in managing their athletics program, the Big East provides a platform that would give any team joining very strong probability of achieving success.  You can't look at who the teams are now--just look at whether they can spend on facilities, coaching and program promotion like Butler or Marquette or Xavier or St. Johns, etc.

This is fair points all around.  Especially their dominance being lessened in a major conference.

I’ll just caveat 2 things I think are different than your examples.  Gonzaga has made 23 straight tournaments (including 2020 where they had already won the conference tourney and would have been a 1 seed.  They have 6 S16s, 3 E8s and 2 FFs with runners up in that time.  That is a period of dominance, both in conference and on a national stage, that is absent from any of the program examples you mention, especially SH, Providence, and Butler.  Plus the last 7-8 years since Few has gotten over the hump, they are consistently 1-2 seeds, marquee ESPN games, household names.  Kids are seeing Gonzaga as a power from their earliest teen years through the time they commit.  Those others schools never had that profile.

Additionally, it’s a very different time with media, the internet, etc than the when schools like that made the tourney.  Being in a remote spot like Spokane doesn’t matter as evidenced by them having high ranked recruits from Minnesota, to Toronto to Texas.

I don’t disagree it’s hard to maintain and they won’t be able to run roughshod over the Big East like the WCC but I’d argue that Gonzaga has very little in common with SH and Providence of the 80s or even Butler of a decade ago than smaller private schools who don’t play major football.

[DoctorV]

What does Gonzaga look like when Few retires?

A place with a Few more losses than they are used to

[MU82]

This is fair points all around.  Especially their dominance being lessened in a major conference.

I’ll just caveat 2 things I think are different than your examples.  Gonzaga has made 23 straight tournaments (including 2020 where they had already won the conference tourney and would have been a 1 seed.  They have 6 S16s, 3 E8s and 2 FFs with runners up in that time.  That is a period of dominance, both in conference and on a national stage, that is absent from any of the program examples you mention, especially SH, Providence, and Butler.  Plus the last 7-8 years since Few has gotten over the hump, they are consistently 1-2 seeds, marquee ESPN games, household names.  Kids are seeing Gonzaga as a power from their earliest teen years through the time they commit.  Those others schools never had that profile.

Additionally, it’s a very different time with media, the internet, etc than the when schools like that made the tourney.  Being in a remote spot like Spokane doesn’t matter as evidenced by them having high ranked recruits from Minnesota, to Toronto to Texas.

I don’t disagree it’s hard to maintain and they won’t be able to run roughshod over the Big East like the WCC but I’d argue that Gonzaga has very little in common with SH and Providence of the 80s or even Butler of a decade ago than smaller private schools who don’t play major football.

Agree.

There is no reason Gonzaga wouldn’t be able to be a top national program if they join the Big East.

[brewcity77]

What does Gonzaga look like when Few retires?

Depends on how the next 15 years goes.

[🏀]

unnatural carnal knowledgeing Dayton? You guys serious?

Glad the crowd quelled those suggestions when I was absent.

[Dr. Blackheart]

unnatural carnal knowledgeing Dayton? You guys serious?

Glad the crowd quelled those suggestions when I was absent.

[tower912]

A place with a Few more losses than they are used to

Bravo.

[Scoop Snoop]

I'm not sure about the etiquette of copying posts from other sites so I suggest reading a very long post from  Gonzaga fan Murphy on the holyland site under the "Ackerman BE TV...." thread. It is an excellent (Herman's favorite adjective) overview of Gonzaga and the pros and cons of joining the BE if offered. Among the many subjects addressed are the financial impact of losing BYU, the movement towards more conference games in the majors, resulting in fewer OOC games available, and a very thorough financial analysis of increased travel expenses. He has one error- he refers to 20 conference games if Gonzaga joins the BE, forgetting that their joining would increase the number to 22.

This is one of the most thorough, perceptive and intelligent posts that I have ever seen. Looking forward to your comments when I return home. Long day out of the house.   

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I subscribe to Extra Points by Matt Brown, who focuses a lot on conference re-shuffling.  Here is what he had to say about AAC's addiions:

"Rather than focusing on established athletic brands with supportive fan bases, it appeared to me that the AAC instead went out and focused on markets, population centers, and potential.

I have to admit... I was not impressed with this argument. After all, that's essentially the exact same argument Conference USA used when they added programs like FAU, Charlotte and UTSA to the conference in the first place. It didn't work, as the Sun Belt passed Conference USA in almost every metric that matters. Does the AAC really think that a few million more in TV revenue and regular games against Memphis and South Florida will be enough to completely unlock the potential for these brands? Especially after some of them go through coaching changes?"

[Uncle Rico]

I'm not sure about the etiquette of copying posts from other sites so I suggest reading a very long post from  Gonzaga fan Murphy on the holyland site under the "Ackerman BE TV...." thread. It is an excellent (Herman's favorite adjective) overview of Gonzaga and the pros and cons of joining the BE if offered. Among the many subjects addressed are the financial impact of losing BYU, the movement towards more conference games in the majors, resulting in fewer OOC games available, and a very thorough financial analysis of increased travel expenses. He has one error- he refers to 20 conference games if Gonzaga joins the BE, forgetting that their joining would increase the number to 22.

This is one of the most thorough, perceptive and intelligent posts that I have ever seen. Looking forward to your comments when I return home. Long day out of the house.   

That was a very well-written and smart post.  The logistics and financials are well-thought out.  The next few months will be fascinating.  I hadn’t taken into consideration the loss of BYU for the WCC.  That’s a blow. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I have to admit... I was not impressed with this argument. After all, that's essentially the exact same argument Conference USA used when they added programs like FAU, Charlotte and UTSA to the conference in the first place. It didn't work, as the Sun Belt passed Conference USA in almost every metric that matters.

One of the more interesting but less talked about pieces of this latest realignment is the likely standoff between CUSA and the Sun Belt. Assuming the 6 teams do leave, CUSA will undoubtedly attempt to refill their ranks, probably at least to 12. Even a few years ago, I would have said that CUSA could have poached any of the Sun Belt teams that they wanted, but I don't think that's true anymore and actually, the Sun Belt may be able to take from CUSA if they wanted to.

With every other Texas school leaving CUSA, I wouldn't be surprised if UTEP wanted to jump to the Sun Belt and they bring a decent mid-major program and good sized metro area with them. Gotta imagine Liberty will be scooped up by either CUSA or the Sun Belt. Maybe CUSA goes Northeast and tries to pickup Army, UMass, and UConn. Maybe a FCS power like James Madison gets upgraded.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

That was a very well-written and smart post.  The logistics and financials are well-thought out.  The next few months will be fascinating.  I hadn’t taken into consideration the loss of BYU for the WCC.  That’s a blow.

After hearing the BYU point, I can see that being the last straw for Gonzaga.

[Uncle Rico]

After hearing the BYU point, I can see that being the last straw for Gonzaga.

Interestingly, the WCC looks stronger this year than last 3-4 years.  I always felt like the WCC could be the best “mid-major”