ESPN Bubble Watch

[tompopsicle]

Marquette not even listed as on the bubble here, and they're included as a "bad loss" to the rodents along with Milwaukee and Western Illinois.

http://espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch

[Aughnanure]

Happens when your RPI is above 100.

[jsheim]

Marquette not even listed as on the bubble here, and they're included as a "bad loss" to the rodents along with Milwaukee and Western Illinois.

http://espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch

only time and wins will cure this.

[Windyplayer]

Happens when your RPI is above 100.

Ludicrous.

[MerrittsMustache]

Marquette not even listed as on the bubble here, and they're included as a "bad loss" to the rodents along with Milwaukee and Western Illinois.

http://espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch

Actually, they referred to the loss as a "lowlight," which is entirely accurate when a team with tourney aspirations loses at home to a team with a worse RPI than Grand Canyon.

MU is not listed because they're not a bubble team. 15-7, RPI: 106, 1 top 50 win, 2 losses to RPI 100+ teams. That's not bubble territory.

[RushmoreAcademy]

Actually, they referred to the loss as a "lowlight," which is entirely accurate when a team with tourney aspirations loses at home to a team with a worse RPI than Grand Canyon.

MU is not listed because they're not a bubble team. 15-7, RPI: 106, 1 top 50 win, 2 losses to RPI 100+ teams. That's not bubble territory.

I am hoping the NIT will accept lowlights.

[Tugg Speedman]

only time and wins will cure this.

Win both games this week and we're on next week's list and stop being a low light for Bucky.

[Tugg Speedman]

Actually, they referred to the loss as a "lowlight," which is entirely accurate when a team with tourney aspirations loses at home to a team with a worse RPI than Grand Canyon.

MU is not listed because they're not a bubble team. 15-7, RPI: 106, 1 top 50 win, 2 losses to RPI 100+ teams. That's not bubble territory.

Any idea what our RPI would be if Billy Garret (Depaul) missed that shot?  We would be 16-6 and 5-4 on the BE

(I'm trying to gauge how much that loss hurt)

[WarriorPride68]

RPI:

#52 Stony Brook / 17-4
#58 Davidson / 12-7
#60 St Bonaventure / 13-6
#63 Tulsa / 14-7
#64 Princenton / 12-5
#65 Akron / 17-4
#68 Hofstra / 16-6
#72 UC Irvine / 17-6
#77 Evansville / 18-5
#78 IPFW / 18-6
#79 Middle Tennessee State / 15-6
#80 Wake Forest / 10-11
#84 Kent State / 15-6
#85 Yale / 13-5
#87 Boise State / 15-7
#89 Long Beach State / 11-12
#90 Siena / 15-8
#91 Duquense / 15-7
#92 UNCW / 16-5
#93 Ohio / 13-7
#95 College of Charleston / 13-8
#96 Peperdine / 14-8
#97 UC Santa Barbara / 9-11
#98 James Madison / 16-7
#99 Grand Canyon / 19-3
#100 Buffalo / 12-9
#108 Auburn / 9-11

#110 Marquette / 15-7

[MerrittsMustache]

Any idea what our RPI would be if Billy Garret (Depaul) missed that shot?  We would be 16-6 and 5-4 on the BE

(I'm trying to gauge how much that loss hurt)

MU would move up to 101.

[Windyplayer]

RPI:

#52 Stony Brook / 17-4
#58 Davidson / 12-7
#60 St Bonaventure / 13-6
#63 Tulsa / 14-7
#64 Princenton / 12-5
#65 Akron / 17-4
#68 Hofstra / 16-6
#72 UC Irvine / 17-6
#77 Evansville / 18-5
#78 IPFW / 18-6
#79 Middle Tennessee State / 15-6
#80 Wake Forest / 10-11
#84 Kent State / 15-6
#85 Yale / 13-5
#87 Boise State / 15-7
#89 Long Beach State / 11-12
#90 Siena / 15-8
#91 Duquense / 15-7
#92 UNCW / 16-5
#93 Ohio / 13-7
#95 College of Charleston / 13-8
#96 Peperdine / 14-8
#97 UC Santa Barbara / 9-11
#98 James Madison / 16-7
#99 Grand Canyon / 19-3
#100 Buffalo / 12-9
#108 Auburn / 9-11

#110 Marquette / 15-7

Thank you for the illustration. RPI is stupid. A team with a losing record is ahead of us.

[Herman Cain]

I think too much attention is paid to RPI. It is a factor but not the only factor.  That said we have 9 more league games plus the tournament. So lets see where we stand after all of that. Compare our body of work to the rest of the teams at the end of the season. Doing it now is comparing apples to oranges.

[Cooby Snacks]

RPI:

#52 Stony Brook / 17-4
#58 Davidson / 12-7
#60 St Bonaventure / 13-6
#63 Tulsa / 14-7
#64 Princenton / 12-5
#65 Akron / 17-4
#68 Hofstra / 16-6
#72 UC Irvine / 17-6
#77 Evansville / 18-5
#78 IPFW / 18-6
#79 Middle Tennessee State / 15-6
#80 Wake Forest / 10-11
#84 Kent State / 15-6
#85 Yale / 13-5
#87 Boise State / 15-7
#89 Long Beach State / 11-12
#90 Siena / 15-8
#91 Duquense / 15-7
#92 UNCW / 16-5
#93 Ohio / 13-7
#95 College of Charleston / 13-8
#96 Peperdine / 14-8
#97 UC Santa Barbara / 9-11
#98 James Madison / 16-7
#99 Grand Canyon / 19-3
#100 Buffalo / 12-9
#108 Auburn / 9-11

#110 Marquette / 15-7

That's what happens when you schedule a bunch of 300+ teams. RPI might to be around 75 to get in the NIT, so even that's looking like a stretch.

[TVDirector]

Love the fact that Princeton is spelled wrong...
 

RPI:

#52 Stony Brook / 17-4
#58 Davidson / 12-7
#60 St Bonaventure / 13-6
#63 Tulsa / 14-7
#64 Princenton / 12-5
#65 Akron / 17-4
#68 Hofstra / 16-6
#72 UC Irvine / 17-6
#77 Evansville / 18-5
#78 IPFW / 18-6
#79 Middle Tennessee State / 15-6
#80 Wake Forest / 10-11
#84 Kent State / 15-6
#85 Yale / 13-5
#87 Boise State / 15-7
#89 Long Beach State / 11-12
#90 Siena / 15-8
#91 Duquense / 15-7
#92 UNCW / 16-5
#93 Ohio / 13-7
#95 College of Charleston / 13-8
#96 Peperdine / 14-8
#97 UC Santa Barbara / 9-11
#98 James Madison / 16-7
#99 Grand Canyon / 19-3
#100 Buffalo / 12-9
#108 Auburn / 9-11

#110 Marquette / 15-7

[WarriorPride68]

Love the fact that Princeton is spelled wrong...
 

I typed this on mobile at break. My apologies sir, was in a rush

[GooooMarquette]

At this point, we're probably on the NIT bubble.

As others have said, we can change this with some big wins.

[MerrittsMustache]

Thank you for the illustration. RPI is stupid. A team with a losing record is ahead of us.

Auburn's SOS is 16 and Non-conf SOS 14. Marquette's is 149 and Non-conf 287.

[WarriorPride68]

I think too much attention is paid to RPI. It is a factor but not the only factor.

For those curious, here are all of the factors considered:

http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/mens-basketball-selections-101-selections

[ChicosBailBonds]

Thank you for the illustration. RPI is stupid. A team with a losing record is ahead of us.

The RPI is basically saying if MU played that same schedule Auburn did, we would have done worse.  That is one reason why they have stronger RPI then we do.

Long Beach State, Tennessee have losing records, both are ranked higher than us in Ken Pom

[1SE]

Auburn's SOS is 16 and Non-conf SOS 14. Marquette's is 149 and Non-conf 287.

I don't think the point was Auburn as much as Long Beach st.

[Lennys Tap]

At this point, we're probably on the NIT bubble.

As others have said, we can change this with some big wins.

Yep. We can move from the NIT bubble to the NIT "likely in".

[MerrittsMustache]

I don't think the point was Auburn as much as Long Beach st.

Long Beach State
SOS: 30
Non-Conf: 1
Only 5 games against RPI 150+

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Grand Canyon!!!

[Windyplayer]

The RPI is basically saying if MU played that same schedule Auburn did, we would have done worse.  That is one reason why they have stronger RPI then we do.

Which we know is BS.

Look at their RPI breakdown compared to ours:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/AUBURN/auburn-tigers

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/MARQET/marquette-golden-eagles

[4everwarriors]

So we shoulda hired Pearl, ai na?

[BM1090]

The formula is simple. 12 Big East wins (total) and we should be in. That would give us a low 50's RPI, most likely.

10-8 with 2 BET wins, or 11-7 with 1 BET win and we should be safe. 11-7 with No BET wins or 10-8 with 1 BET win? RPI would be mid 60's, so probably not.

Now, can we accomplish that? I doubt it. But we'll have more of an idea after tomorrow.

[1SE]

Long Beach State
SOS: 30
Non-Conf: 1
Only 5 games against RPI 150+

Whose best win is over a (currently) 11-10 OkSt?  Compared to wins @Wisc, @Prov and neutral LSU (all higher RPI than OkSt).  RPI rewards losing to good teams.  We all know this. 

[humanlung]

Didn't Kevin O'Neil throw a really young team onto the court against Duke and some other heavyweights?  If I recall correctly, it was a bloodbath early on but it really toughened the young men up.

The non-conference diet of cupcakes is doing what cupcakes do - make you soft.  It has to stop.  Please, God, make it stop.

[Windyplayer]

Whose best win is over a (currently) 11-10 OkSt?  Compared to wins @Wisc, @Prov and neutral LSU (all higher RPI than OkSt).  RPI rewards losing to good teams.  We all know this.

RPI needs to be adjusted to mitigate the difference between playing a team between 150-200 RPI and 250+. It's called gaming the system and all teams should do it, but there are only so many below average teams (as opposed to outright bad) to play in the country. NCAA needs to intervene and mandate that the committee downplays weight given to the RPI.

[jsheim]

The formula is simple. 12 Big East wins (total) and we should be in. That would give us a low 50's RPI, most likely.

10-8 with 2 BET wins, or 11-7 with 1 BET win and we should be safe. 11-7 with No BET wins or 10-8 with 1 BET win? RPI would be mid 60's, so probably not.

Now, can we accomplish that? I doubt it. But we'll have more of an idea after tomorrow.

I agree with the "safe" zone you describe...but 10-8 + 1-1 BET I think is also safe. 10-8 would mean significant wins rest of schedule (6-3). the one BET win would be against probably BE 3,4,5 (tourney team)...and the loss probably against X or V. ... so what I'm thinking is the "committee" will see us winning lately and against high quality...and in a league that is significant.

I know that's a lot of Chinese math...but I had to do a lot to see us even getting to 10-8 so what the hey!?   

[ErickJD08]

Aren't we a little too concerned over RPI right now?  Isn't SOS calculated as you go and not projections?  Shouldn't our SOS get better as we play X, Providence, and Nova? 

And given our remaining schedule and our current record, aren't we a lock if we get 10+wins in the BE because we would have serious quality wins and a top 5 team in the BE?

[Benny B]

RPI is great when the distribution of teams (according to talent/performance) resembles a bell curve.  RPI isn't so great when you have teams bunched up around the median.

Without going too deeply into the math, very simply, consider a scenario where all 350 teams in D-I played an equal number of home and road games and the home team always won (i.e. absolute parity)... every team in D-I would be tied for 1st in the RPI rankings.

In other words, the more parity there is, the less accurate/relevant of an metric RPI is.

Considering the relative lack of an upper echelon of teams this year, I hope the selection committee includes someone who at least has a background in mathematics or statistics and can point this out because while Marquette may not be one of them, there may be many teams in the 50-100 RPI range that deserve more than a courtesy (or cursory) look this year... call me  biased against mid-majors if you will, but you can't tell me that Wisconsin, Butler, Georgetown, and Gonzaga (RPI 66, 67, 69 & 73) - with about a dozen marquee wins amongst them -  should be dismissed in favor of Valpo, William & Mary, South Dakota State, and Chattanooga (RPI 37, 39, 41, & 45) - four teams that haven't a single win vs. a ranked opponent.

[MerrittsMustache]

Aren't we a little too concerned over RPI right now?  Isn't SOS calculated as you go and not projections?  Shouldn't our SOS get better as we play X, Providence, and Nova? 

And given our remaining schedule and our current record, aren't we a lock if we get 10+wins in the BE because we would have serious quality wins and a top 5 team in the BE?

MU's SOS projects to be around 90 at the end of the regular season.

If MU gets to 10 wins by winning all but at X and at Butler (2 lowest probabilities), RPI would project to about 58.

[BM1090]

MU's SOS projects to be around 90 at the end of the regular season.

If MU gets to 10 wins by winning all but at X and at Butler (2 lowest probabilities), RPI would project to about 58.

If we win all but X and Butler we would be at 11 wins, but yes, the 58 number is accurate.

And just for fun, if we won out including the BET, our RPI would be about 24

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Wisconsin being on that list is a joke, if you're going to leave MU off.

MU and Creighton both still have chances, but they're remote, so not surprised they were left off. 

[jesmu84]

RPI is great when the distribution of teams (according to talent/performance) resembles a bell curve.  RPI isn't so great when you have teams bunched up around the median.

Without going too deeply into the math, very simply, consider a scenario where all 350 teams in D-I played an equal number of home and road games and the home team always won (i.e. absolute parity)... every team in D-I would be tied for 1st in the RPI rankings.

In other words, the more parity there is, the less accurate/relevant of an metric RPI is.

Considering the relative lack of an upper echelon of teams this year, I hope the selection committee includes someone who at least has a background in mathematics or statistics and can point this out because while Marquette may not be one of them, there may be many teams in the 50-100 RPI range that deserve more than a courtesy (or cursory) look this year... call me  biased against mid-majors if you will, but you can't tell me that Wisconsin, Butler, Georgetown, and Gonzaga (RPI 66, 67, 69 & 73) - with about a dozen marquee wins amongst them -  should be dismissed in favor of Valpo, William & Mary, South Dakota State, and Chattanooga (RPI 37, 39, 41, & 45) - four teams that haven't a single win vs. a ranked opponent.

Good stuff, Benny.

[BM1090]

Wisconsin being on that list is a joke, if you're going to leave MU off.

MU and Creighton both still have chances, but they're remote, so not surprised they were left off.

I think by rule they don't write about any teams until the RPI is sub 100.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

The formula is simple. 12 Big East wins (total) and we should be in. That would give us a low 50's RPI, most likely.

10-8 with 2 BET wins, or 11-7 with 1 BET win and we should be safe. 11-7 with No BET wins or 10-8 with 1 BET win? RPI would be mid 60's, so probably not.

Now, can we accomplish that? I doubt it. But we'll have more of an idea after tomorrow.

I'll keep repeating it...11-7 Big East team is not getting left out of the tournament, even with our NC schedule. No chance.

[Jay Bee]

RPI needs to be adjusted to mitigate the difference between playing a team between 150-200 RPI and 250+. It's called gaming the system and all teams should do it, but there are only so many below average teams (as opposed to outright bad) to play in the country. NCAA needs to intervene and mandate that the committee downplays weight given to the RPI.

The RPI doesn't CARE what the RPI of your opponent is. It's not part of the calculation. Just not how it works.

[Jay Bee]

MU would move up to 101.

Show your math? I find this to be incorrect.

Any idea what our RPI would be if Billy Garret (Depaul) missed that shot?  We would be 16-6 and 5-4 on the BE

(I'm trying to gauge how much that loss hurt)

High 80's to low 90's.  The main component wouldn't change at all (opponents unadjusted win-loss, ex games against MU). The opp's opp's unadjusted win-loss would be hurt slightly, but not a huge deal.

The first component - MU's adjusted win-loss is where this game would count..but you could sub in any home loss... not just DePaul.

MU's current adj W-L is 12.2-8.2 or .5980. If we had beat DePaul, we'd be 12.8-6.8 or .6531. That improvement multiplied by .25 = .0138 to our overall RPI. Let's say the offset on opp's opp's dropped us to +.0125..

Our current RPI jumps to .5517 from .5392.. and our RPI rank goes from the current 109 to 91.

As a reminder, the impact of a particular game depends on tons of other variables and changes most every day of games.

The DETAILS are important.

In common man's terms.. that loss sucked d for us. In RPI, it's hurtful.. the impact depends.. as of today (which will change), it costs us 15-20 spots in the RPI.

AND.. as a reminder.. again.. the RPI of your opponents doesn't matter. In FACT, the RPI often REWARDS you more for playing a team with a WORSE RPI than it does for playing a team with a BETTER RPI.

[Windyplayer]

The RPI doesn't CARE what the RPI of your opponent is. It's not part of the calculation. Just not how it works.

Um, OK. Let me re-phrase: RPI cares about everything that comprises a team's RPI.

[MerrittsMustache]

Show your math? I find this to be incorrect.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Marquette.html

Switch the DePaul game to a win, drop remaining games. RPI: 101

[BM1090]

I'll keep repeating it...11-7 Big East team is not getting left out of the tournament, even with our NC schedule. No chance.

Hope you're right but they left out Texas AM last year who went 11-7 in the SEC, and non con only lost to Dayton, Baylor and Kansas State. Finished with RPI of #68. We would have very similar numbers at 11-7 and a first round BET loss this year.

[WarriorPride68]

Hope you're right but they left out Texas AM last year who went 11-7 in the SEC, and non con only lost to Dayton, Baylor and Kansas State. Finished with RPI of #68. We would have very similar numbers at 11-7 and a first round BET loss this year.

Damn, I did not know that about A&M last year. 21 wins overall + 11 wins from the SEC seems like a lock. That's scary

[Jay Bee]

http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Marquette.html

Switch the DePaul game to a win, drop remaining games. RPI: 101

smh, that's not a logical exercise. Study-up on what rpiforecast.com does.

Anyway, my commentary is correct, your 101 is wrong.

[Benny B]

Damn, I did not know that about A&M last year. 21 wins overall + 11 wins from the SEC seems like a lock. That's scary

And now look where they are this year.

Maybe this can be the pitch to HE if MU is snubbed this year.  "We're going to be this year's TAMU next year."

(Of course, this means we all should start pulling for TAMU right now.)

[bilsu]

Wisconsin being on that list is a joke, if you're going to leave MU off.

MU and Creighton both still have chances, but they're remote, so not surprised they were left off.

Under things being considered by the committee are things that could of effected the preformance of the team. Bo Ryan retiring will be a mitagating factor in UW's 1-4 Big 10 start and could be a mitigating factor for the non-conference, if they look and see they were not playing well under Ryan. MU beating UW only comes into play, if both teams end up being on the bubble.

[wadesworld]

Didn't Kevin O'Neil throw a really young team onto the court against Duke and some other heavyweights?  If I recall correctly, it was a bloodbath early on but it really toughened the young men up.

The non-conference diet of cupcakes is doing what cupcakes do - make you soft.  It has to stop.  Please, God, make it stop.

Yeah we didn't play any heavyweights in our nonconference slate to toughen us up.  I mean, our best non-conference game was Iowa for Christ's sake.  They're never good at basketball! 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Any idea what our RPI would be if Billy Garret (Depaul) missed that shot?  We would be 16-6 and 5-4 on the BE

(I'm trying to gauge how much that loss hurt)

I was playing around with RPI Wizard trying to see what our RPI might be with certain win combinations. For fun I changed the Depaul game to a win. At the end of the season it usually boosted us by 11 spots. Depaul is the only ugly loss on the season so far. Committee can forgive a lot of sins if there are no bad losses. Unfortunately, Garrett got his phantom foul

[Jay Bee]

I was playing around with RPI Wizard trying to see what our RPI might be with certain win combinations. For fun I changed the Depaul game to a win. At the end of the season it usually boosted us by 11 spots. Depaul is the only ugly loss on the season so far. Committee can forgive a lot of sins if there are no bad losses. Unfortunately, Garrett got his phantom foul

...but that wasn't the guy's question. His question has been covered, 'I'm really a badger fan?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Hope you're right but they left out Texas AM last year who went 11-7 in the SEC, and non con only lost to Dayton, Baylor and Kansas State. Finished with RPI of #68. We would have very similar numbers at 11-7 and a first round BET loss this year.

The SEC was garbage last year, but A&M should have been in. BE is a better conference.

[MarquetteDano]

Hope you're right but they left out Texas AM last year who went 11-7 in the SEC, and non con only lost to Dayton, Baylor and Kansas State. Finished with RPI of #68. We would have very similar numbers at 11-7 and a first round BET loss this year.

Just based on the conference record that isn't a good comparison to the Big East however.  SEC was down again last year and with the unbalanced schedules A&M average conference opponent RPI at home was 87 and away was 91.  Plus they lost in the first round of the SEC Tourney to Auburn.

For comparison, Marquette's average home RPI was 69 and away 69.

[bilsu]

Kentucky is playing itself onto the bubble.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Kentucky is playing itself onto the bubble.

I wouldn't go that far...yet, but next week both Kentucky and Duke will be out of the top 25 in the same week.  Been awhile since that has happened. UCLA won't be there either.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

...but that wasn't the guy's question. His question has been covered, 'I'm really a badger fan?

Since you follow the Gophers, that's a double sin for you

[GoldenZebra]

This should not really be a surprised to anyone, considering the schedule MU had, and the losses...

[keefe]

Hope you're right but they left out Texas AM last year who went 11-7 in the SEC, and non con only lost to Dayton, Baylor and Kansas State. Finished with RPI of #68. We would have very similar numbers at 11-7 and a first round BET loss this year.

Yea, but they are Aggies. They were left out on that fact alone.

[rocket surgeon]

I was playing around with RPI Wizard trying to see what our RPI might be with certain win combinations. For fun I changed the Depaul game to a win. At the end of the season it usually boosted us by 11 spots. Depaul is the only ugly loss on the season so far. Committee can forgive a lot of sins if there are no bad losses. Unfortunately, Garrett got his phantom foul

that ugly loss to depaul just got a little lip stick put on it.  they just beat providence by 7 last night on their(depaul) floor.  now, we HAVE to beat them. they ain't no push-over.  hope we've learned something since

[brewcity77]

I wouldn't go that far...yet, but next week both Kentucky and Duke will be out of the top 25 in the same week.  Been awhile since that has happened. UCLA won't be there either.

That blue blood is starting to look a bit more red when it's spilled.

[4everwarriors]

With lots of these teams, da only bubbles they're gonna watch are der own fabricated ones while takin' a bath, hey?

[Windyplayer]

Marquette's average home RPI was 69 and away 69.

Funny how that works.

[ChicosBailBonds]

For comparison, Marquette's average home RPI was 69 and away 69.

Tastes like chicken