Barry Diller: Actor/Writer Strikes Could Lead to Hollywood’s ‘Absolute Collapse

[Not A Serious Person]

So the last three years did not signal a post-pandemic shift away from going to a movie theatre and toward streaming on the big screen at home.

Instead, as you just said, it has been hundreds and hundreds of bad movies ... which ended ~10 days ago.

Got it

(PS The movie theatre industry is set to sell ~25% fewer tickets this year over 2019. Its revenue near records are thanks to inflation, as ticket prices are up ~25% since 2019)

---------
ADDED


Now nothing is getting made because Bryan Cranston is worried a robot is going to take his job. So, theatres better save their money as a "movie winter" is coming soon (unless you make the case the month-long strike is close to ending and does not drag on for many more months.)

[MU82]

Instead, as you just said, it has been hundreds and hundreds of bad movies ... which ended ~10 days ago.

Nobody said that.

In fact, I specifically said that the pandemic hit movie theaters harder than just about any business.

But I also said that one way back is to just make good movies that weren't reboots of over-done franchises. Like Oppenheimer and Barbie.

[Pakuni]

Classic Heisey 

"When Barbenheimer flops, it'll prove Hollywood is doomed. "
<Barbenheimer has monster opening weekend >

"That opening weekend was a fluke and when they flop next week, it'll prove Hollywood is doomed."
<Barbenheimer has stellar second weekend >

"Movie theaters were hit hard by the pandemic Checkmate.  Go circle jerk."

[Uncle Rico]

Classic Heisey 

"When Barbenheimer flops, it'll prove Hollywood is doomed. "
<Barbenheimer has monster opening weekend >

"That opening weekend was a fluke and when they flop next week, it'll prove Hollywood is doomed."
<Barbenheimer has stellar second weekend >

"Movie theaters were hit hard by the pandemic Checkmate.  Go circle jerk."

Maybe, just maybe, it’s always more nuanced than “thing X is doomed”

[MU82]

Maybe, just maybe, it’s always more nuanced than “thing X is doomed”

Spoken like a guy who's truly doomed.

[Not A Serious Person]

July 27, 2023
AI in Hollywood Has Gone From Contract Sticking Point to Existential Crisis
As the strikes grind on, actors and writers are worried about technology encroaching on their jobs.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-07-27/ai-use-in-movies-and-tv-looms-over-writers-and-actors-strike

Growing fear of AI has contributed to Hollywood’s biggest labor dispute in six decades, since the emergence of TV raised issues about who would get what cut of programming revenue. Both writers and actors are now on strike, shutting down hundreds of film and TV productions. While AI isn’t the most important issue in these labor negotiations—that would be money—the technology has turned a business dispute into an existential crisis. Creatives in the industry already say that they aren’t banking enough from streaming services and that technology companies exploit their labor. Now they fear AI will eliminate their jobs entirely, replacing their voices and faces with computer-generated renditions. AI is already being used to create marketing materials, eliminate swear words and reduce the cost of visual effects. It won’t be long before it might plausibly replace voice actors and extras. “It has the potential to impact our members’ lives so extensively,” says Duncan Crabtree-Ireland, chief negotiator for the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists, the union that represents performers.

[Pakuni]

AMC posts best admissions revenue week in its 103-year history.

https://m.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/amc-barbie-and-oppenheimer-drive-admissions-revenue-to-best-ever-week-3139441

[Not A Serious Person]

AMC posts best admissions revenue week in its 103-year history.

https://m.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/amc-barbie-and-oppenheimer-drive-admissions-revenue-to-best-ever-week-3139441

Thank you inflation

[Pakuni]

Thank you inflation

Citation needed.

[4everwarriors]

Der iz know inflation, aina?

[Not A Serious Person]

The second story below says Disney spends $30+ billion yearly on content. Wow!!
The first story says Disney is pushing headlong into using AI.

Disney reports earnings this afternoon, so these numbers should be updated.

My bottom line.

Margo Robbie and Cillian Murphy are good at their craft. But they are expensive. There are an endless number of young talented actors behind them to replace them.

Studios have been doing this for years (finding cheaper unknown talent), which is why the stars are essentially gone. There are no new Cruise, Stallone, Hanks, Ford, or Streep anymore. You don't buy tickets due to the lead actor's name. If you do, it is for a 60- to 80-year-old actor that will soon be gone.

I do not see Robbie and Murphy as moving the needle on ticket sales. It is Chris Nolan and the marketing hype of Barbie that drove tickets. Robbie and Murphy could easily be replaced; these movies would have done the same.

Now Disney is going to replace the actors and writers with software. Hence the strike.

Essentially this is a strike of Hollywood against Disney as Iger is driving the move to AI.

This has every indication that it will go on for months, and by next summer, there will be no new content. Hence no new releases for theatres.

---------------------

August 8, 2023
Disney creates task force to explore AI and cut costs - sources
https://www.reuters.com/technology/disney-creates-task-force-explore-ai-cut-costs-sources-2023-08-08/

Walt Disney has created a task force to study artificial intelligence and how it can be applied across the entertainment conglomerate, even as Hollywood writers and actors battle to limit the industry's exploitation of the technology.

Launched earlier this year, before the Hollywood writers' strike, the group is looking to develop AI applications in-house as well as form partnerships with startups, three sources told Reuters.

One of the sources, an internal advocate who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject, said legacy media companies like Disney must either figure out AI or risk obsolescence.

This supporter sees AI as one tool to help control the soaring costs of movie and television production, which can swell to $300 million for a major film release like "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny" or "The Little Mermaid." Such budgets require equally massive box office returns simply to break even. Cost savings would be realized over time, the person said.

May 17, 2023
Disney Content Spending in 2023 May Be Lower Because of Writers Strike, CFO Says
Disney has pegged total cash content spending at around $30 billion for this year — but the ongoing Writers Guild of America strike may drive that down, CFO Christine McCarthy said.

[jficke13]

The second story below says Disney spends $30+ billion yearly on content. Wow!!
The first story says Disney is pushing headlong into using AI.

Disney reports earnings this afternoon, so these numbers should be updated.

My bottom line.

Margo Robbie and Cillian Murphy are good at their craft. But they are expensive. There are an endless number of young talented actors behind them to replace them.

Studios have been doing this for years (finding cheaper unknown talent), which is why the stars are essentially gone. There are no new Cruise, Stallone, Hanks, Ford, or Streep anymore. You don't buy tickets due to the lead actor's name. If you do, it is for a 60- to 80-year-old actor that will soon be gone.

I do not see Robbie and Murphy as moving the needle on ticket sales. It is Chris Nolan and the marketing hype of Barbie that drove tickets. Robbie and Murphy could easily be replaced; these movies would have done the same.

Now Disney is going to replace the actors and writers with software. Hence the strike.

Essentially this is a strike of Hollywood against Disney as Iger is driving the move to AI.

This has every indication that it will go on for months, and by next summer, there will be no new content. Hence no new releases for theatres.

---------------------

August 8, 2023
Disney creates task force to explore AI and cut costs - sources
https://www.reuters.com/technology/disney-creates-task-force-explore-ai-cut-costs-sources-2023-08-08/

Walt Disney has created a task force to study artificial intelligence and how it can be applied across the entertainment conglomerate, even as Hollywood writers and actors battle to limit the industry's exploitation of the technology.

Launched earlier this year, before the Hollywood writers' strike, the group is looking to develop AI applications in-house as well as form partnerships with startups, three sources told Reuters.

One of the sources, an internal advocate who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject, said legacy media companies like Disney must either figure out AI or risk obsolescence.

This supporter sees AI as one tool to help control the soaring costs of movie and television production, which can swell to $300 million for a major film release like "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny" or "The Little Mermaid." Such budgets require equally massive box office returns simply to break even. Cost savings would be realized over time, the person said.

May 17, 2023
Disney Content Spending in 2023 May Be Lower Because of Writers Strike, CFO Says
Disney has pegged total cash content spending at around $30 billion for this year — but the ongoing Writers Guild of America strike may drive that down, CFO Christine McCarthy said.

Kind of, but not like you're suggesting.

People, studio and publishing executives in particular, seem hell bent on taking the wrong lessons from the hollywood and publishing successes and failures. One of those things that you're alluding to is the idea that the talent doesn't really matter. There's another pretty face, another musclebound dude, another brooding and mysterious type, and so on, and so on. Afterall, Hollywood has been minting new stars for ages, right?

Similarly, why did the Marvel Cinematic Universe "work" (at least up to Endgame)? There's a simple but not easy lesson (make good movies), but the one that the suits seem to have taken from it, which is "established IP, interconnected universe = $." But if that's the case why has every attempt to create another cinematic universe (the Monster-verse) failed? Why have revenues and reviews of all of the post-Endgame Marvel properties been worse than before?

The answer is that the talent is actually what matters. It doesn't need to be Cillian Murphy, but it does need to be an investment in all of the complicated human parts of creating cinema that is actually good. Christopher Nolan helms Oppenheimer and invests in a team of studs from writers to actors to VFX and more, and you get a good movie, and wonder of wonders, people pay to see it.

I haven't seen Barbie, everyone but the incel-adjacent Ben Shapiro (himself a very very bitter failed screenwriter) crowd seems to love it, and it does $1B at the box office. The takeaway is probably "hire very talented people to make a good movie and support it with marketing and get a little lucky too is the way to succeed" the suits' takeaway is "toy IP =$." I will be highly amused when Lena Dunham's Polly Pocket movie loses 9 figures.

The strikes fighting against AI are saving the suits from themselves. If the studios cram garbage AI writing and garbage AI acting into an IP vehicle, they will successfully cut costs, but those vehicles will fail comprehensively in every regard.

[jficke13]

Here's a suggestion for how to make movies that make money that don't break the bank: try to hit some singles and see which ones get into the gap and let you grab extra bases. Do this with movies that do not mandate a 9 figure VFX spend.

Romantic comedies (non Hallmark Channel division) and adult comedies are good places to do this. The budget for "Old School" was $24M. That's peanuts. Not everything needs to be a blockbuster in production or in cost.

[Not A Serious Person]

Here's a suggestion for how to make movies that make money that don't break the bank: try to hit some singles and see which ones get into the gap and let you grab extra bases. Do this with movies that do not mandate a 9 figure VFX spend.

Romantic comedies (non Hallmark Channel division) and adult comedies are good places to do this. The budget for "Old School" was $24M. That's peanuts. Not everything needs to be a blockbuster in production or in cost.

Dramas and comedies are cheaper because you do not have to blow up many expensive things.

[Not A Serious Person]

Again, this is why the Hollywood strike will drag on and on .... streaming is too expensive. The costs (Hollywood) have to come down.

----

“... ‘A basket of the top US streaming services will cost $87 this autumn, compared with $73 a year ago .. The average cable TV package costs $83 a month.’ That’s a +19% increase.”

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Does anyone pay for Hulu and Disney Plus seperately? I get the Disney bundle for a lot less than those two together. Throw in the discount I get from AmEx and I'm paying less than what Disney+ costs by itself.

I also personally don't know anyone that owns all six of those streaming services. Theres also people like me who cycle through various streaming services so Im only paying for one at a time. I have the disney bundle year round and then a cycle between Max, AppleTV, and Netflix every 4 months.

Then there's even more people who share streaming logins between households. I know they are trying to crack down but its still rampant.

To be clear,  I don't disagree that this is impacting the strike, it is. I just took issue with that graphic seeming to imply that cable was a cheaper option than streaming

[MU82]

Does anyone pay for Hulu and Disney Plus seperately? I get the Disney bundle for a lot less than those two together. Throw in the discount I get from AmEx and I'm paying less than what Disney+ costs by itself.

I also personally don't know anyone that owns all six of those streaming services. Theres also people like me who cycle through various streaming services so Im only paying for one at a time. I have the disney bundle year round and then a cycle between Max, AppleTV, and Netflix every 4 months.

Then there's even more people who share streaming logins between households. I know they are trying to crack down but its still rampant.

To be clear,  I don't disagree that this is impacting the strike, it is. I just took issue with that graphic seeming to imply that cable was a cheaper option than streaming

I do similar to what you're doing. One has to stay on one's toes a little to make sure to remember to cancel after seeing the shows one wants to see, but it's worth doing it that way.

[mu_hilltopper]

(So far) each year, Hulu has a Black Friday sale .. I think it was $2/month last time, so I signed up.  I'll alternate email addresses to be considered "new" each time.

Paramount+ and Peacock had a $1 deal too.

If any of those deals don't appear this time around, I'll drop them.   No need for all that media.

[Not A Serious Person]

Does anyone pay for Hulu and Disney Plus seperately? I get the Disney bundle for a lot less than those two together. Throw in the discount I get from AmEx and I'm paying less than what Disney+ costs by itself.

I also personally don't know anyone that owns all six of those streaming services. Theres also people like me who cycle through various streaming services so Im only paying for one at a time. I have the disney bundle year round and then a cycle between Max, AppleTV, and Netflix every 4 months.

Then there's even more people who share streaming logins between households. I know they are trying to crack down but its still rampant.

To be clear,  I don't disagree that this is impacting the strike, it is. I just took issue with that graphic seeming to imply that cable was a cheaper option than streaming

Are you not making the case that streaming is too expensive and costs have to come down?

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Does anyone pay for Hulu and Disney Plus seperately? I get the Disney bundle for a lot less than those two together. Throw in the discount I get from AmEx and I'm paying less than what Disney+ costs by itself.

I also personally don't know anyone that owns all six of those streaming services. Theres also people like me who cycle through various streaming services so Im only paying for one at a time. I have the disney bundle year round and then a cycle between Max, AppleTV, and Netflix every 4 months.

Then there's even more people who share streaming logins between households. I know they are trying to crack down but its still rampant.

To be clear,  I don't disagree that this is impacting the strike, it is. I just took issue with that graphic seeming to imply that cable was a cheaper option than streaming

Like most people I have the Disney/Hulu/ESPN+ bundle
Netflix
Prime was the byproduct of free shipping on Amazon.
Max is free as part of my AT&T phone plan.
My wife got Apple+ thrown in as part of some Apple music subscription or something.
My kids got Peacock for something they wanted to watch over the summer, but will be canceled in September.
And I temporarily have Starz to watch Outlander but will drop after all episodes air.  There was special price for the first 2 months also.
No other subscriptions.

Sounds typical and not paying those prices in the chart for a full year.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Are you not making the case that streaming is too expensive and costs have to come down?

No, I'm making the case the streaming is much less expensive than cable.

[MU82]

From the WSJ:

Get ready for streamflation.

The average cost of watching a major ad-free streaming service is going up by nearly 25% in about a year, according to a Journal analysis. Entertainment giants bet that customers will either pay up or switch to their cheaper and more-lucrative ad-supported plans. It’s not hard to see why: Streaming’s share of U.S. viewing time grew to a new high in July, while television viewing fell below 50% for the first time, according to new Nielsen data.

They included this graphic:

[Not A Serious Person]

From the WSJ:

Get ready for streamflation.

The average cost of watching a major ad-free streaming service is going up by nearly 25% in about a year, according to a Journal analysis. Entertainment giants bet that customers will either pay up or switch to their cheaper and more-lucrative ad-supported plans. It’s not hard to see why: Streaming’s share of U.S. viewing time grew to a new high in July, while television viewing fell below 50% for the first time, according to new Nielsen data.

They included this graphic:

What needs to be added to all these is sports, especially ESPN.

Disney+, give you ESPN+, which is "the Ocho." It has tons of sports not on cable ESPN. You still need cable for ESPN for the major sports they carry.

But, as detailed on previous pages, ESPN is considering ditching cable for streaming. But that might be another $20 to $30 per month because of the huge broadcast rights fees.

Then add in Fox Sports and other sports-only streaming and this is getting really pricey.

And we see this above, as many are arbitraging streaming services by subscribing and unsubscribing several times a year to watch specific shows. This signals streaming costs too much and is not sustainable for the streaming services' long-term health.

Then add in the Hollywood strike, and things should be coming to an "infection point" soon.

[GoFastAndWin]

Here's a suggestion for how to make movies that make money that don't break the bank: try to hit some singles and see which ones get into the gap and let you grab extra bases. Do this with movies that do not mandate a 9 figure VFX spend.

Romantic comedies (non Hallmark Channel division) and adult comedies are good places to do this. The budget for "Old School" was $24M. That's peanuts. Not everything needs to be a blockbuster in production or in cost.

Hit a single here, single there. Stretch one into a double. Is Buzz producing now?

[Not A Serious Person]

Disney stock is getting smashed again today. It is now at $82, just above its $79 COVID panic low.

This is becoming a typical strike. Everyone loses. The "winners" are those that are "less worse" than others.

----

What's Going On With Disney Stock Today?
Ryan Gustafson

(Benzinga Newswire) The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) shares are trading lower Thursday amid overall market weakness. The stock has also been under pressure amid the SAG-AFTRA strike.

What To Know: The ongoing strike began after the SAG-AFTRA union was unable to reach an agreement with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP). In light of risks facing the industry, such as those from streaming services and artificial intelligence, the actors represented by the union are fighting for better pay and working conditions.

However, the strike has the potential to greatly disrupt the industry, stopping production worldwide and cutting off a large source of profits for studios, production companies, and streaming services. Many sets will close indefinitely, impacting release dates. Furthermore, actors not being allowed to promote new projects will greatly affect movie marketing strategies.

Disney stock has suffered as a result, with the stock trading at a nine-year low.

Shares of DIS were down 3.77% at $82.59 at the time of publication, according to Benzinga Pro.