COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[GooooMarquette]

Interesting article from an infectious disease epidemiologist from the University of Hong Kong, with a statistical/epidemiological explanation of how to decide when to reopen society, and how to determine whether and when to reimpose restrictions:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/opinion/coronavirus-end-social-distancing.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

Without getting into the stats, he is essentially saying that places may have to reopen then impose restrictions repeatedly until we have a vaccine and/or a sufficient number of recovered cases to develop herd immunity.

Everyone wants to sprint, but we are in a marathon....

[forgetful]

Interesting article from an infectious disease epidemiologist from the University of Hong Kong, with a statistical/epidemiological explanation of how to decide when to reopen society, and how to determine whether and when to reimpose restrictions:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/opinion/coronavirus-end-social-distancing.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

Without getting into the stats, he is essentially saying that places may have to reopen then impose restrictions repeatedly until we have a vaccine and/or a sufficient number of recovered cases to develop herd immunity.

Everyone wants to sprint, but we are in a marathon....

I believe that is the same type of scenario recommended by the Imperial College study that everyone is using.

Which makes todays stock market news kind of weird. They are acting like this is over.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I put the chances of any sort of NBA or NHL playoffs at less than 10%.  Having the NBA playoffs at one site where everyone is quarantined, etc. is just not going to be feasible.  Unless they push it all the way to September, but by then, what is the point?

Baseball could start late, but even a 100 game season might be too much.  And it will start without fans.

Peter King's scenario is what I think the NFL might look like.  Though it might start without fans.  I think you will see something similar for college football.  Only conference games.

I heard an MLB schedule proposal.  Play a 60 game schedule, 15 games against each team in your division. 
The playoffs would be a complete unknown.

[JWags85]

I believe that is the same type of scenario recommended by the Imperial College study that everyone is using.

Which makes todays stock market news kind of weird. They are acting like this is over.

So the market isn't allowed to be green until the virus is completely eradicated?  People continue freaking out every time the market bounces like that means the market says its all over.  Its barely back to the highs of last week, just retraced the bloody end of the week.  Still almost 10% off the high of the last 30 days from early March, and 23% from the top.  It gained some footing based on progress.  Lots of bad news and decreased economic activity is priced in already.  We are just waffling in a range, albeit a huge and volatile one.

Unless we have some sort of catastrophic step back in China or the US or a major European country, this market isn't going to plunge to lows on COVID news alone. There absolutely will be more downside, but its going to come after the market releases some steam higher and then hard numbers from companies come out in the form of earnings and guidance reports and adjustments.  The market is a discounting and forecasting mechanism as a whole.  Its forward looking.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Boris Johnson moved to ICU.  Trending in the wrong direction for him. 

[Hards Alumni]

Boris Johnson moved to ICU.  Trending in the wrong direction for him.

Jesus, that was fast.  Real chance he doesn't make it.

[Hards Alumni]

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

some good news buried there.

[injuryBug]

I put the chances of any sort of NBA or NHL playoffs at less than 10%.  Having the NBA playoffs at one site where everyone is quarantined, etc. is just not going to be feasible.  Unless they push it all the way to September, but by then, what is the point?

Baseball could start late, but even a 100 game season might be too much.  And it will start without fans.

Peter King's scenario is what I think the NFL might look like.  Though it might start without fans.  I think you will see something similar for college football.  Only conference games.

Then you have the trickle down to College what do they do?
Do schools start College and high school?
Is there a HS football season?

[GooooMarquette]

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

some good news buried there.

So basically more deaths at the peak, and a longer ICU stay if that's where you end up, but a quicker return to baseline resulting in fewer total deaths during this "first wave."

I like the sound of it, but the more we know about it, the more clear it is that there will be more than one big wave, so we might be right back here (the "second wave") in the fall....

[GooooMarquette]

Jesus, that was fast.  Real chance he doesn't make it.

Yeah, that isn't a good sign. Especially bad if they need to intubate him.

[Jockey]

Was just stunned watching clip from yesterday’s dog and pony show where Trump refused to let Fauci speak about his snake oil solution.

Peter Navarro said he trusts Trump’s intuition over science.

Really. Those are the people in charge.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Was just stunned watching clip from yesterday’s dog and pony show where Trump refused to let Fauci speak about his snake oil solution.

Peter Navarro said he trusts Trump’s intuition over science.

Really. Those are the people in charge.

I think the mods have made it pretty clear that they want to move on from the political comments.

[GooooMarquette]

I think the mods have made it pretty clear that they want to move on from the political comments.

Rocky or Topper can correct me if I'm wrong, but my sense is that they want to get past the political blame game for what's in the past, and the insult hurling.

This, on the other hand, is a comment about how POTUS is making decisions TODAY. And it is frightening to see that the infectious disease expert is being pushed aside during a pandemic. I would be appalled if Hillary were POTUS and did that, and I am appalled that Trump doing that. To me, that isn't political; it's just common sense.

[forgetful]

So the market isn't allowed to be green until the virus is completely eradicated?  People continue freaking out every time the market bounces like that means the market says its all over.  Its barely back to the highs of last week, just retraced the bloody end of the week.  Still almost 10% off the high of the last 30 days from early March, and 23% from the top.  It gained some footing based on progress.  Lots of bad news and decreased economic activity is priced in already.  We are just waffling in a range, albeit a huge and volatile one.

Unless we have some sort of catastrophic step back in China or the US or a major European country, this market isn't going to plunge to lows on COVID news alone. There absolutely will be more downside, but its going to come after the market releases some steam higher and then hard numbers from companies come out in the form of earnings and guidance reports and adjustments.  The market is a discounting and forecasting mechanism as a whole.  Its forward looking.

I didn't say the market can't respond positively. But there has been a large bounce on little to no positive data. There is no reason to believe that the economy will have a chance to return to normal within the next 6 months.

And that new normal will be at a significantly declined reference point.

Before there was any COVID, many were saying the market was overpriced and needed a 10-15% correction.

To me, it shows that the stock market is no longer rational. I honestly don't think it has been for awhile.

[Coleman]

Jesus, that was fast.  Real chance he doesn't make it.

I was reading that people who end up needing ventilators, decline very rapidly around day 10. Milder symptoms until then. This lines up pretty well with that.

[GooooMarquette]

I didn't say the market can't respond positively. But there has been a large bounce on little to no positive data. There is no reason to believe that the economy will have a chance to return to normal within the next 6 months.

And that new normal will be at a significantly declined reference point.

Before there was any COVID, many were saying the market was overpriced and needed a 10-15% correction.

To me, it shows that the stock market is no longer rational. I honestly don't think it has been for awhile.

I with you there.

It makes sense that we'd get a positive response to good news, but what we've been hearing is part good, part bad. The good of course is that staying at home is working, and the total deaths in this first wave might end up being lower than predicted. The bad is that once we reopen things, we will almost certainly begin to see subsequent waves and need to shut things down again. Hopefully, each successive wave gets smaller than the one before, but still, I can't imagine economists are thrilled by the prospect of another wave of stay at home orders this fall.

Which all leads me to think that a "rational" market would have had a bounce today...but not the whopping 7% we saw....

[JWags85]

I didn't say the market can't respond positively. But there has been a large bounce on little to no positive data. There is no reason to believe that the economy will have a chance to return to normal within the next 6 months.

And that new normal will be at a significantly declined reference point.

Before there was any COVID, many were saying the market was overpriced and needed a 10-15% correction.

To me, it shows that the stock market is no longer rational. I honestly don't think it has been for awhile.

So you're saying the market needed a 10-15% haircut, PLUS whatever impact COVID has on top of that?  Markets often don't cool off and backfill the overpriced air pocket they were rising on until there is a reason or a black swan.

Also, from top to bottom, the market (SPY/SPY) dropped 35%.  50% retracements of moves are exceedingly common on both daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes.  A 50% retracement of the move would be 2800 on the SPX.  Working up to that level and then making new lows beyond the low of 2200 is very likely and fundamentally matches market behavior over decades.  The market was irrational at its peaks, I don't think what we've seen is anything particularly so.  Clearly you had no issue when the market would puke daily on Cuomo sharing information that wasn't new, shocking, or at all divergent from models or projections.  Yet when the market bounces after an 8% weekly decline on news that NYC cases have flattened for multiple days, beyond simply a bounce after tons of red, then its "irrational", got it.

Not for nothing, you've been one of the more bearish and grim voices on COVID here, which is fine and I'm not begrudging your opinion and analysis.  But calling out market perception and opinions of the situation, with a daily market view, irrational cause they don't match your own and have any positivity in them is pretty self involved.

The Fed also is backstopping the market with significant capital which gives it some stabilizing strength, that's just fact, that's not irrational.

[Chili]

So you're saying the market needed a 10-15% haircut, PLUS whatever impact COVID has on top of that?  Markets often don't cool off and backfill the overpriced air pocket they were rising on until there is a reason or a black swan.

Also, from top to bottom, the market (SPY/SPY) dropped 35%.  50% retracements of moves are exceedingly common on both daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes.  A 50% retracement of the move would be 2800 on the SPX.  Working up to that level and then making new lows beyond the low of 2200 is very likely and fundamentally matches market behavior over decades.  The market was irrational at its peaks, I don't think what we've seen is anything particularly so.  Clearly you had no issue when the market would puke daily on Cuomo sharing information that wasn't new, shocking, or at all divergent from models or projections.  Yet when the market bounces after an 8% weekly decline on news that NYC cases have flattened for multiple days, beyond simply a bounce after tons of red, then its "irrational", got it.

Not for nothing, you've been one of the more bearish and grim voices on COVID here, which is fine and I'm not begrudging your opinion and analysis.  But calling out market perception and opinions of the situation, with a daily market view, irrational cause they don't match your own and have any positivity in them is pretty self involved.

The Fed also is backstopping the market with significant capital which gives it some stabilizing strength, that's just fact, that's not irrational.

I think you're getting overly bullish on this. Today in NYC 13 flights took off the area airports. Right now, the national restaurant association is thinking 13% of the countries nations will never reopen - and that's if things don't get worse. Going into March the only sector of the economy that was doing well was the service sector. Everything else was down. Now, the service industry just get both legs chopped off at the femur and people expect it to start running again come May / June. I am still targeting 2200. Thankfully I exited equities at 3250. No need to rush to catch the falling knife.

[Lennys Tap]

So you're saying the market needed a 10-15% haircut, PLUS whatever impact COVID has on top of that?  Markets often don't cool off and backfill the overpriced air pocket they were rising on until there is a reason or a black swan.

Also, from top to bottom, the market (SPY/SPY) dropped 35%.  50% retracements of moves are exceedingly common on both daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes.  A 50% retracement of the move would be 2800 on the SPX.  Working up to that level and then making new lows beyond the low of 2200 is very likely and fundamentally matches market behavior over decades.  The market was irrational at its peaks, I don't think what we've seen is anything particularly so.  Clearly you had no issue when the market would puke daily on Cuomo sharing information that wasn't new, shocking, or at all divergent from models or projections.  Yet when the market bounces after an 8% weekly decline on news that NYC cases have flattened for multiple days, beyond simply a bounce after tons of red, then its "irrational", got it.

Not for nothing, you've been one of the more bearish and grim voices on COVID here, which is fine and I'm not begrudging your opinion and analysis.  But calling out market perception and opinions of the situation, with a daily market view, irrational cause they don't match your own and have any positivity in them is pretty self involved.

The Fed also is backstopping the market with significant capital which gives it some stabilizing strength, that's just fact, that's not irrational.

Wags

Markets that move faster, slower, or in a direction people disagree with are referred to as irrational. Easier than saying “I was wrong (irrational?) on the market”.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Wags

Markets that move faster, slower, or in a direction people disagree with are referred to as irrational. Easier than saying “I was wrong (irrational?) on the market”.

The market has been irrational for weeks.  I don’t today is any more explainable than any other.  These companies do not fluctuate in value this much. 

[muguru]

Was just stunned watching clip from yesterday’s dog and pony show where Trump refused to let Fauci speak about his snake oil solution.

Peter Navarro said he trusts Trump’s intuition over science.

Really. Those are the people in charge.

While you are busy bashing away...you better read this...you'll dismiss it, I know, but notice this Rep is a Democrat...

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/detroit/2020/04/06/democrat-karen-whitsett-coronavirus-hydroxychloroquine-trump/2955430001/

[MarquetteDano]

The Fed also is backstopping the market with significant capital which gives it some stabilizing strength, that's just fact, that's not irrational.

I own plenty of equities but this is my concern.  The market is being propped up by the Fed... near zero rates,  unlimited liquidity,  now buying corporate bonds.  Then add trillions of fiscal stimulus.

A large part of the move of the markets over the past several years was due to stock buybacks.  Financial engineering made things look better versus real organic growth.  Now many companies have huge debt burdens.

Sooner or later this stuff must get unwound.... Fed balance sheets,  corporate balance sheets, etc..

Let's just hope it happens in an orderly manner.

[JWags85]

I think you're getting overly bullish on this. Today in NYC 13 flights took off the area airports. Right now, the national restaurant association is thinking 13% of the countries nations will never reopen - and that's if things don't get worse. Going into March the only sector of the economy that was doing well was the service sector. Everything else was down. Now, the service industry just get both legs chopped off at the femur and people expect it to start running again come May / June. I am still targeting 2200. Thankfully I exited equities at 3250. No need to rush to catch the falling knife.

Where did I say I was bullish?  I said I expected a bit more upside and then a move back down and likely lower than earlier in March.  I was more reacting to this idea that the market being substantially green in a day makes no sense. I think the market moved enough down on its "shock the system" devaluation move down, so working back up absent new unexpected shocks make sense to a certain level.  Indications things have slowed or steadied will expedite that from time to time, like today.  Then its up to actual figures to bring us down, instead of expectations.  Some companies will have weathered the storm better than expected, some much worse.  As those become apparent, we will get our continuation lower IMO.

Wags

Markets that move faster, slower, or in a direction people disagree with are referred to as irrational. Easier than saying “I was wrong (irrational?) on the market”.

This I agree with.  Markets aren't rational and havent been for decades.  Buybacks, Fed invervention, algo high frequency trading, etc... have removed the traditional idea of rational and fair markets.  But I don't like "irrational" being tossed out when it doesn't do what you expect.  I don't care if you're a day trader, casual investor, or Benjamin Graham or Ray Dalio.

[MU82]

Boris Johnson moved to ICU.  Trending in the wrong direction for him.

Let me start by saying that I obviously don't wish sickness on him or anybody else, and I hope he can beat this and have a full recovery.

Having said that ...

He is a science denier who just a couple weeks ago was bragging about shaking hands with COVID-19 patients and vowing to continue to do so.

It simply underscores how dangerous these leaders can be -- to themselves and to others -- when they devalue science and downplay deadly illnesses.

[MU82]

While you are busy bashing away...you better read this...you'll dismiss it, I know, but notice this Rep is a Democrat...

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/detroit/2020/04/06/democrat-karen-whitsett-coronavirus-hydroxychloroquine-trump/2955430001/

I am glad she is doing well, and it's nice that Trump could have a role in saving a human life.