Scholarship table
RicoI think a big misconception today is understanding Chinese nationalism. This not our Grandparent's China and mindset has changed more in a decade than the previous 50+ years. I always feared younger, educated Chinese having the same nationalistic pride that American's had and that is now happening. The world got small and Chinese now believe they can be the superpower of the world and not willing to wait another 100 years for it to happen.
You're right. There will be much more bloodshed in a modern military theater than with the inferior weapons of the 40s.
I happened to be in a Chinese history class when Deng died in ‘97 and had a long talk about it with my professor who was a serious Sino-phile and he was adamant once the old guard was all off this mortal coil, the change from party and cult of personality obedience to that of nationalism would be China’s biggest change and make them our biggest threat from a nation standpoint. Him, along with others at the time were prescient about the explosion of McWorld post-Cold War being the immediate threat but long term, China was the sleeping giant
So then why did you write "remember Okinawa" in your pseudo analogy/argument?
MuggsyThere are a lot smarter guys on here on how we won the Cold War, but if we put China into a depression, we would have a very, very, very serious economic crisis. President Xi would likely face very strong internal conflicts within his country at a very large scale. Could he survive it, sure, but at what cost? I noted earlier that I believe the USA government is woefully under educated on how China works, their capabilities and what makes them make decisions. The pandemic has only had made that worse, IMO. China has two plus of years of limited Western (aside from spies) presence in China and a lot happens in two years. My honest opinion, I think Tim Cook and Apple has better Chinese intel than our government does.
What? I'm saying China's troops will die by the thousands trying to take Taiwan. Just like Americans died by the thousands taking Okinawa. Oki is tiny. Taiwan is a whole-ass country and orders of magnitude larger.I was picking at you for agreeing with Goose about the ease you two seem to think China will take Taiwan.
RicoPrior to wasting my time on scoop, I wrote countless letters/emails to government leaders, major media outlets and even Mark Belling hoping to share the thoughts your professor shared with you, and I received the same response I get on scoop talking ball. I was, and still am obsessed, on this topic because I strongly believe we took a sound asleep giant and made them into a real giant. Again, I am far from an expert, but I witnessed this on a monthly basis for three plus decades. I saw China have an industrial revolution, a sexual revolution and military buildup not seen WWII in thirty year period. We gave them the playbook and they added their own personal twist to it.MuggsThe nationalism today is that because of gained wealth and material things they are convincing people their way is the right way. Couple that with the CCP sharing the MU campus crime thread to their people to show what idiots we have become:)
MuggsyI cannot speak about rural China mindset at all. I can say that I really love the Chinese people that are still in the smaller cities (under 2m or so), but no feel for the sticks. That said, 100's of millions of people have moved to urban areas and those are the folks I am referring about. To put things in perspective, I think Guangdong Province has somewhere around 120m living there and you can drive to all four borders in a half day or so if there were not 120m people living there.
I've done some business in Hong Kong and Shanghai but don't entirely have a feel for this specific nationalism you have written about. Obviously my Hong Kong experiences may give me false overall perceptions.
MU Fan, The closest point between Taiwan and China was the biggest smuggling route in the 80's and 90's, I believe China can navigate the terrain.
Goose:I appreciate the perspective you have brought here based on your decades of experience. I am one of those who does not understand much about China - either its history or its military or its current state. I do read some of what's going on, but most accounts aren't very deep.If it would be so easy to take Taiwan, and if taking Taiwan would cripple America, why doesn't Xi just do it? Also, some have referenced that America would have to protect Taiwan militarily. How the hell would we even do that?This all does sound like the plot of a novel, perhaps one about the start of World War III, and it's freakin' scary.
MuggsyThere are a lot smarter guys on here on how we won the Cold War, but if we put China into a depression, we would have a very, very, very serious economic crisis. President Xi would likely face very strong internal conflicts within his country at a very large scale. Could he survive it, sure, but at what cost?
If it would be so easy to take Taiwan, and if taking Taiwan would cripple America, why doesn't Xi just do it? Also, some have referenced that America would have to protect Taiwan militarily. How the hell would we even do that?
The US Navy which still has more naval assets in the area than China on its home turf and that's only part of our navy.Plus our new group of Super Friends joint security group of USA, India, Japan and Australia and others countries are looking to join.Missiles - if I read correctly, we launched more in the first two days of Iraq than Russia has in 5 weeks.China has an oil problem can't import enough and the US Navy would choke out sea supply with the above.China may have boats in a navy now but where have they deployed or menaced any country since Admiral Zheng He in the 1340's? (He was Uigar, coincidentally too.). Taking over the uninhabited Spratly's not far from the China coast?
Goose:I appreciate the perspective you have brought here based on your decades of experience. I am one of those who does not understand much about China - either its history or its military or its current state. I do read some of what's going on, but most accounts aren't very deep.If it would be so easy to take Taiwan, and if taking Taiwan would cripple America, why doesn't Xi just do it?