ESPN Layoffs

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Heisy, that's the wrong Curry brother in your post.

[MU82]

Totally agree but it is not 99% of ESPN's losses are total cord cutters.  It more than 75% to 80%, the other 20% to 25% are going to skinny bundles without ESPN.

35% of Disney's revenues, and nearly half their profits, are from ESPN.  If you are correct, and I think you are, then they are in a world of hurt.  A giant part of their business is a giant one-time money grab and then it's gone in a few years.

--------------

Oh, 82, you are right about Apple.  Why don't you mention Disney or UnderArmour?  To fresh your memory, started a Superbar thread in August 2015 saying Disney was in deep doo-doo when the stock was $122 because of ESPN.  Chicos, confidently told me I did not know what I was talking about and he was buying, buying and buying.  Today Disney is $111 and the stock market is 14% higher.  Disney would have to be at $140 to keep pace with the overall market.  At $111 it is saying it agrees that Disney has "issues."  Restated, the stock market think Disney sucks.

Disney earnings are out Tuesday (May 9).  The 10-Q is over a 100 pages.  They have theme parks and movies.  But Bob Iger (CEO of Disney) and all the Disney shareholder care about one thing ... ESPN subscriber losses and the forecast for further subscriber losses.  Another billion dollar Star Wars movie is nice, but it is not moving the stock.

Underarmour  ... down 29% year-to-date making it one of the worst S&P 500 stocks this year.  Bottom line, Jordan Speith and Seth Curry are working for Free at UAA (because they took payment in stock).  Nice call by their agents!

So yes, start another 150 posts about Apple's new high and remind me I don't know what I'm talking about.

If only the Warriors had played such aggressive defense!

Look, Smuggles ... you're the one who admitted you were "smug" - your word - because you are certain about pretty much everything. So when you strongly and surely and expertly opine that only morons would buy AAPL at 90 and then it runs up near 150 in pretty short order, you have to be ready to get a little grief. You want to be Mr. Super Predictor, that goes with the territory.

As for your good calls ... congrats!

BTW, I don't own DIS or UAA. I'm happily long AAPL, though I sure wish I had bought more!!

[jficke13]

You guys are weird and really should let things go on the internet more.

#lukewarmtake

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Totally agree but it is not 99% of ESPN's losses are total cord cutters.  It more than 75% to 80%, the other 20% to 25% are going to skinny bundles without ESPN.

Do you have data to support this? I made up the 99% number. Was based on the anecdotal fact that I have never met someone who bought a "skinny" bundle. I'm honestly curious.

[GWSwarrior]

I presented it without comment. I should be closed minded like you and only present one side?

For the record I disagree with them.  And my disagreement is simple.  I show the chart again below.  It has to stop going down before it hits 75 million or they are in deep trouble.  Why should this trend stop?  Because you want it to stop?  That's not a reason, that's hope.

The only reason the chart will stop going down is ESPN massively cuts their fees.  But that has the same effect as going to 75 million described above, it puts them in a bad place.  They need it to stop at 87 million and still give them the ability to jake up fees.  Not happening, that business model died when this chart started down.

ESPN is the old joke (adapted for this case) ... what is the window washer that fell off the 100 millionth floor say as he crossed below the 88 millionth floor?  So far so good.

We all know this is going to end in a splat ... just arguing about how many years it will take.

you're one of the most closed minded people on here

[forgetful]

So this thread is still going after 17 pages.  Scoop at its finest.

[🏀]

I still find it hard to believe eSports are a thing.  I notice Deadspin is devoting more and more articles to it, and I am like, "Really?"

Without sounding terse, why are you still reading, Deadspin?

Magary has this columns, I get, but since the buyout, Gawker properties are DOA.

[warriorchick]

Without sounding terse, why are you still reading, Deadspin?

Magary has this columns, I get, but since the buyout, Gawker properties are DOA.

I only read about 10% of the articles, but I skim the headlines every day.

[mu03eng]

I only read about 10% of the articles, but I skim the headlines every day.

Isn't that the Playboy defense?

[warriorchick]

Isn't that the Playboy defense?

Actually, ot would be the opposite of the Playboy defense. 

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Actually, ot would be the opposite of the Playboy defense.

Jimmy Kimmel had the best line at Hugh Heffner's roast:

"I only read Playboy for the articles. I j*** off to the pictures."

[Tugg Speedman]

Disney reported Q1 2017 earnings after the Stock Exchange closed today.  As of this writing, the stock is down more than 2% on the results.

As highlighted below. ESPN is now going backwards for Disney.  More subscriber losses and higher costs are coming every quarter into the foreseeable future.  No reason to think it is about to stop.

All of Disney's businesses reported good numbers except ESPN and the stock is down after hours.  That's because the movies (star wars), broadcast TV (ABC) and theme parks are taking a back seat to ESPN's problems.

------------------


May 9 (Bloomberg) Walt Disney Co. failed to assuage investor concern about its struggling cable division, saying profit in the business slumped last quarter as ESPN continued to lose subscribers and spent more to televise games.

Sales in the cable division totaled $4.06 billion, trailing the $4.2 billion average of analysts’ estimates. The unit’s profit slid 3 percent, the company said, a reflection of higher expenses for NBA games and college football. Disney shares fell in late trading.

The results show Disney struggling to get a handle on the troubles at its largest business -- TV programming. The owner of ESPN and ABC has seen ratings slide as audiences watch more video online, while sports leagues keep demanding more money. The company is paying $600 million more for rights to National Basketball Association games alone, and a shift in college football schedules also lifted expenses.


http://www.reuters.com/article/us-walt-disney-results-idUSKBN1852FL?il=0&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social

Recent earnings reports have raised concern that the pace of cord-cutting is picking up. MoffettNathanson analysts calculated that pay TV distributors lost 762,000 subscribers from January through March, the worst first-quarter result in history.

Disney is working to launch an ESPN subscription streaming service and bought a 33 percent stake in video-streaming firm BAMTech for $1 billion last year.

The future of ESPN has been in focus since August 2015 when Chief Executive Officer Bob Iger acknowledged "modest" subscriber losses at the sports network.

ESPN's television unit is laying off 10 percent of its 1,000 on-air staff, Reuters reported last month, citing a source.

[Herman Cain]

Disney reported Q1 2017 earnings after the Stock Exchange closed today.  As of this writing, the stock is down more than 2% on the results.

As highlighted below. ESPN is now going backwards for Disney.  More subscriber losses and higher costs are coming every quarter into the foreseeable future.  No reason to think it is about to stop.

All of Disney's businesses reported good numbers except ESPN and the stock is down after hours.  That's because the movies (star wars), broadcast TV (ABC) and theme parks are taking a back seat to ESPN's problems.

------------------


May 9 (Bloomberg) Walt Disney Co. failed to assuage investor concern about its struggling cable division, saying profit in the business slumped last quarter as ESPN continued to lose subscribers and spent more to televise games.

Sales in the cable division totaled $4.06 billion, trailing the $4.2 billion average of analysts’ estimates. The unit’s profit slid 3 percent, the company said, a reflection of higher expenses for NBA games and college football. Disney shares fell in late trading.

The results show Disney struggling to get a handle on the troubles at its largest business -- TV programming. The owner of ESPN and ABC has seen ratings slide as audiences watch more video online, while sports leagues keep demanding more money. The company is paying $600 million more for rights to National Basketball Association games alone, and a shift in college football schedules also lifted expenses.


http://www.reuters.com/article/us-walt-disney-results-idUSKBN1852FL?il=0&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social

Recent earnings reports have raised concern that the pace of cord-cutting is picking up. MoffettNathanson analysts calculated that pay TV distributors lost 762,000 subscribers from January through March, the worst first-quarter result in history.

Disney is working to launch an ESPN subscription streaming service and bought a 33 percent stake in video-streaming firm BAMTech for $1 billion last year.

The future of ESPN has been in focus since August 2015 when Chief Executive Officer Bob Iger acknowledged "modest" subscriber losses at the sports network.

ESPN's television unit is laying off 10 percent of its 1,000 on-air staff, Reuters reported last month, citing a source.

Hopefully the stock will break down and create an entry point.

[rocket surgeon]

Hopefully the stock will break down and create an entry point.

that's exactly what i did with under armour-figured the falling knives had to stop somewhere.  someone will right that ship; under armour is so pervasive in not just our sporting world, but all over.  their stuff is comfortable and sharp looking.  i threw my hat in the ring at around $17 pps...we'll see i guess

[Tugg Speedman]

Remember there is a big problem with ESPN being sold online.  That is why Disney was vague about when and how they are going to offer an ESPN subscription model online, they only acknowledge there is an "inevitability" to it.  That sounds like they don't yet have a plan.

For years ESPN was the most important network on cable and the only way for a cable company could get it was to agree to carry it on basic and guarantee a minimum percentage of their cable subscribers would pay for ESPN.  So ESPN was forced upon everyone.  And for years that was ok because ESPN was the premier "must have" channel on cable.  That is changing now.

In exchange for ESPN being forced on cable subscribers, Disney agreed to not compete with them by offering it online.  If they did, this allows cable companies to void the agreement. 

So, if ESPN offers WatchESPN as a standalone online subscription, that allows cable companies to immediately pull it from basic and lower basic cable fees by the amount of ESPN (and ESPN2, ESPNU et al if they are on basic too).  They would then offer these channels for the same amount as a premium service. 

So everyone here would see their cable bill go down by $7 to $9 a month and then subscribe to "ESPN premium" for the same amount and nothing changes.  The problem is surveys say 50% of basic cable customers would NOT subscribe to ESPN premium and ESPN would lose half their revenues and put Disney in a world of hurt.

Despite Disney being a huge conglomerate, nearly every question on the investor call last night to Disney CEO Bob Iger was about ESPN.  No questions on ABC, Movies and/or theme parks.  ESPN is half of Disney profits and the takeaway is "they don't know what to do."  That is why the stock is down today despite every non-ESPN business Disney owns is booming. Disney might as well change it stock ticker symbol to ESPN because that is how the company is viewed right now.


Disney’s ESPN Looks to an Online Future, as Cable Subscribers Decline
Plans to launch digital subscription services focused on particular sports, teams and regions
https://www.wsj.com/articles/disney-profit-rises-despite-espn-woes-1494362684
By Ben Fritz
Updated May 9, 2017 10:10 p.m. ET

Faced with subscriber and viewership losses, Walt Disney Co.’s DIS 0.58% ESPN is planning to launch digital subscription services focused on particular sports, teams and regions.

Disney Chief Executive Robert Iger on Tuesday once again spent much of a conference call with Wall Street analysts following the release of financial results discussing the fate of ESPN. The sports channel accounts for the majority of profits in the company’s cable business, which has lost momentum in the past few years while other divisions are booming.

Disney had announced plans to launch this year its first ESPN “over the top” service, similar to Netflix , that will include sports not on the linear network like baseball. Mr. Iger’s comments on services tuned to the narrow interests of particular sports fans indicate many more are in development.

The CEO said there are no current plans to offer a replica of the ESPN cable channel online to those who don’t subscribe to cable, akin to Time Warner Inc.’s HBO Now, but conceded “there is an inevitability to that.”

[Tugg Speedman]

Following on my comment above about how ESPN is forced on everyone whether they want it or not ...

No-Sports TV? Viacom, AMC, Discovery Said Eyeing Web Bundle
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-13/sports-free-tv-viacom-amc-discovery-said-eyeing-online-bundle
Entertainment-only packages could cost less than $20 a month
At least four distributors weigh online bundles without sports

Cable programmers including Viacom Inc., Discovery Communications Inc. and AMC Networks Inc. are in talks with pay-TV distributors about creating new online TV services for consumers who don’t want to pay for sports, according to people familiar with the situation.

The media companies have explored offering entertainment-only packages over the internet with four to six pay-TV providers, said one of the people, who asked not to be identified discussing the private negotiations. The talks are at various stages, but at least one service could be introduced this year, the person said.

Channel owners hurt by subscriber losses want to be part of new web-based video services as people drop pricey pay-TV packages for cheaper options, yet some have been left out of new “skinny” bundles. Viacom and Discovery, for example, aren’t part of YouTube’s live TV service or Hulu’s upcoming package. While sports is the most popular live programming, it’s also the most expensive.

Sports-free TV would cost less than $20 a month, according to one person. That’s about half the expected price of Hulu’s upcoming live TV service and YouTube’s new TV package, which came out last week. Both YouTube and Hulu are offering or looking to offer about 40 channels, including ESPN and broadcasters like NBC, Fox and CBS that rely heavily on sports. YouTube CEO Susan Wojcicki said the service was designed “to be great for sports lovers.”

....

Efforts to create sports-free packages with distributors could trigger a backlash from companies like Walt Disney Co., the owner of ESPN. Two years ago, Verizon tried to sell such a bundle called Custom TV and was sued by Disney for alleged contract violations. Verizon later introduced two low-cost bundles -- one with sports channels and one without.

New online entertainment-only TV packages could violate deals that major media companies like Disney and 21st Century Fox Inc. have with cable and satellite providers, according to Michael Nathanson, an analyst at MoffettNathanson LLC. Those pacts require that their networks be part of the most popular bundles or that a certain share of subscribers must receive their programming. Such terms could cap how many people are allowed to sign up for sports-free TV.

“It’s meant to dissuade distributors from doing something like this,” Nathanson said. “The issue is how many subscribers they can have before the legal questions appear.”

[MU82]

Remember there is a big problem with ESPN being sold online.  That is why Disney was vague about when and how they are going to offer an ESPN subscription model online, they only acknowledge there is an "inevitability" to it.  That sounds like they don't yet have a plan.

For years ESPN was the most important network on cable and the only way for a cable company could get it was to agree to carry it on basic and guarantee a minimum percentage of their cable subscribers would pay for ESPN.  So ESPN was forced upon everyone.  And for years that was ok because ESPN was the premier "must have" channel on cable.  That is changing now.

In exchange for ESPN being forced on cable subscribers, Disney agreed to not compete with them by offering it online.  If they did, this allows cable companies to void the agreement. 

So, if ESPN offers WatchESPN as a standalone online subscription, that allows cable companies to immediately pull it from basic and lower basic cable fees by the amount of ESPN (and ESPN2, ESPNU et al if they are on basic too).  They would then offer these channels for the same amount as a premium service. 

So everyone here would see their cable bill go down by $7 to $9 a month and then subscribe to "ESPN premium" for the same amount and nothing changes.  The problem is surveys say 50% of basic cable customers would NOT subscribe to ESPN premium and ESPN would lose half their revenues and put Disney in a world of hurt.

Despite Disney being a huge conglomerate, nearly every question on the investor call last night to Disney CEO Bob Iger was about ESPN.  No questions on ABC, Movies and/or theme parks.  ESPN is half of Disney profits and the takeaway is "they don't know what to do."  That is why the stock is down today despite every non-ESPN business Disney owns is booming. Disney might as well change it stock ticker symbol to ESPN because that is how the company is viewed right now.


Disney’s ESPN Looks to an Online Future, as Cable Subscribers Decline
Plans to launch digital subscription services focused on particular sports, teams and regions
https://www.wsj.com/articles/disney-profit-rises-despite-espn-woes-1494362684
By Ben Fritz
Updated May 9, 2017 10:10 p.m. ET

Faced with subscriber and viewership losses, Walt Disney Co.’s DIS 0.58% ESPN is planning to launch digital subscription services focused on particular sports, teams and regions.

Disney Chief Executive Robert Iger on Tuesday once again spent much of a conference call with Wall Street analysts following the release of financial results discussing the fate of ESPN. The sports channel accounts for the majority of profits in the company’s cable business, which has lost momentum in the past few years while other divisions are booming.

Disney had announced plans to launch this year its first ESPN “over the top” service, similar to Netflix , that will include sports not on the linear network like baseball. Mr. Iger’s comments on services tuned to the narrow interests of particular sports fans indicate many more are in development.

The CEO said there are no current plans to offer a replica of the ESPN cable channel online to those who don’t subscribe to cable, akin to Time Warner Inc.’s HBO Now, but conceded “there is an inevitability to that.”

I agree, Smuggles, that ESPN has become an albatross for Disney. And I think you accurately describe some of the problems going forward.

I would have loved to have bought DIS years ago, but I didn't, and I'm not buying now.

[Tugg Speedman]

I agree, Smuggles, that ESPN has become an albatross for Disney. And I think you accurately describe some of the problems going forward.

I would have loved to have bought DIS years ago, but I didn't, and I'm not buying now.

Let me say something nice about Disney.  Ask Warren Buffett who is the best corporate manager working today.  Without hesitation, he says it is Bob Iger of Disney.

He is without question right.  So while Disney has a seemingly intractable problem in figuring out how to stop the subscriber losses at ESPN, they have possibly the most qualified person on the planet to deal with this issue in Iger.

Now, this does not mean that Iger will figure it out, it could be a problem with no solution.  But if Iger died tomorrow, the stock is low to mid-90s next trade ($109 now).  That is how much faith people have in his ability to solve this issue. 

The question is, can he?  No one sees a solution to ESPN subscriber losses, all we have is hope that Iger will figure it out.

[GooooMarquette]

I love Scoop.

Just sayin'....

[MU82]

Let me say something nice about Disney.  Ask Warren Buffett who is the best corporate manager working today.  Without hesitation, he says it is Bob Iger of Disney.

He is without question right.  So while Disney has a seemingly intractable problem in figuring out how to stop the subscriber losses at ESPN, they have possibly the most qualified person on the planet to deal with this issue in Iger.

Now, this does not mean that Iger will figure it out, it could be a problem with no solution.  But if Iger died tomorrow, the stock is low to mid-90s next trade ($109 now).  That is how much faith people have in his ability to solve this issue. 

The question is, can he?  No one sees a solution to ESPN subscriber losses, all we have is hope that Iger will figure it out.

Just think of how rich you would be if you went short DIS and put hemlock in Iger's mimosa!

[Tugg Speedman]

Just think of how rich you would be if you went short DIS and put hemlock in Iger's mimosa!

Naah, lot more opportunities to give really bad managers hemlock and go long the stock and watch it soar when they are out of the picture. 

I think a lot of them are in the healthcare industry.

[MU82]

Naah, lot more opportunities to give really bad managers hemlock and go long the stock and watch it soar when they are out of the picture. 

I think a lot of them are in the healthcare industry.

Ha! Also, one is at VZ and another at GE!

[jficke13]

Maybe we could make a board just for MU82 and Heisenberg?

[MU82]

Maybe we could make a board just for MU82 and Heisenberg?

Nah ... it would deprive others of our witty repartee.

Meanwhile ... Disney announced it's rearranging the chairs on the ESPNtanic:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3267322-espn-shaking-sportscenter-lineup-approach

[ZiggysFryBoy]

 

So, if ESPN offers WatchESPN as a standalone online subscription, that allows cable companies to immediately pull it from basic and lower basic cable fees by the amount of ESPN (and ESPN2, ESPNU et al if they are on basic too).  They would then offer these channels for the same amount as a premium service. 

So everyone here would see their cable bill go down by $7 to $9 a month and then subscribe to "ESPN premium" for the same amount and nothing changes.  The problem is surveys say 50% of basic cable customers would NOT subscribe to ESPN premium and ESPN would lose half their revenues and put Disney in a world of hurt.

If you think the cable companies are going to drop cable prices $7-9 if they can drop ESPN.... well I've got some DIS stock to sell you.