Kolek planning to go pro
Totally agree but it is not 99% of ESPN's losses are total cord cutters. It more than 75% to 80%, the other 20% to 25% are going to skinny bundles without ESPN.35% of Disney's revenues, and nearly half their profits, are from ESPN. If you are correct, and I think you are, then they are in a world of hurt. A giant part of their business is a giant one-time money grab and then it's gone in a few years.--------------Oh, 82, you are right about Apple. Why don't you mention Disney or UnderArmour? To fresh your memory, started a Superbar thread in August 2015 saying Disney was in deep doo-doo when the stock was $122 because of ESPN. Chicos, confidently told me I did not know what I was talking about and he was buying, buying and buying. Today Disney is $111 and the stock market is 14% higher. Disney would have to be at $140 to keep pace with the overall market. At $111 it is saying it agrees that Disney has "issues." Restated, the stock market think Disney sucks.Disney earnings are out Tuesday (May 9). The 10-Q is over a 100 pages. They have theme parks and movies. But Bob Iger (CEO of Disney) and all the Disney shareholder care about one thing ... ESPN subscriber losses and the forecast for further subscriber losses. Another billion dollar Star Wars movie is nice, but it is not moving the stock.Underarmour ... down 29% year-to-date making it one of the worst S&P 500 stocks this year. Bottom line, Jordan Speith and Seth Curry are working for Free at UAA (because they took payment in stock). Nice call by their agents!So yes, start another 150 posts about Apple's new high and remind me I don't know what I'm talking about.
Totally agree but it is not 99% of ESPN's losses are total cord cutters. It more than 75% to 80%, the other 20% to 25% are going to skinny bundles without ESPN.
TAMUI do know, Newsie is right on you knowing ball.
I presented it without comment. I should be closed minded like you and only present one side?For the record I disagree with them. And my disagreement is simple. I show the chart again below. It has to stop going down before it hits 75 million or they are in deep trouble. Why should this trend stop? Because you want it to stop? That's not a reason, that's hope.The only reason the chart will stop going down is ESPN massively cuts their fees. But that has the same effect as going to 75 million described above, it puts them in a bad place. They need it to stop at 87 million and still give them the ability to jake up fees. Not happening, that business model died when this chart started down.ESPN is the old joke (adapted for this case) ... what is the window washer that fell off the 100 millionth floor say as he crossed below the 88 millionth floor? So far so good. We all know this is going to end in a splat ... just arguing about how many years it will take.
I still find it hard to believe eSports are a thing. I notice Deadspin is devoting more and more articles to it, and I am like, "Really?"
Without sounding terse, why are you still reading, Deadspin?Magary has this columns, I get, but since the buyout, Gawker properties are DOA.
I only read about 10% of the articles, but I skim the headlines every day.
Isn't that the Playboy defense?
Actually, ot would be the opposite of the Playboy defense.
Disney reported Q1 2017 earnings after the Stock Exchange closed today. As of this writing, the stock is down more than 2% on the results.As highlighted below. ESPN is now going backwards for Disney. More subscriber losses and higher costs are coming every quarter into the foreseeable future. No reason to think it is about to stop.All of Disney's businesses reported good numbers except ESPN and the stock is down after hours. That's because the movies (star wars), broadcast TV (ABC) and theme parks are taking a back seat to ESPN's problems.------------------May 9 (Bloomberg) Walt Disney Co. failed to assuage investor concern about its struggling cable division, saying profit in the business slumped last quarter as ESPN continued to lose subscribers and spent more to televise games.Sales in the cable division totaled $4.06 billion, trailing the $4.2 billion average of analysts’ estimates. The unit’s profit slid 3 percent, the company said, a reflection of higher expenses for NBA games and college football. Disney shares fell in late trading.The results show Disney struggling to get a handle on the troubles at its largest business -- TV programming. The owner of ESPN and ABC has seen ratings slide as audiences watch more video online, while sports leagues keep demanding more money. The company is paying $600 million more for rights to National Basketball Association games alone, and a shift in college football schedules also lifted expenses.http://www.reuters.com/article/us-walt-disney-results-idUSKBN1852FL?il=0&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=SocialRecent earnings reports have raised concern that the pace of cord-cutting is picking up. MoffettNathanson analysts calculated that pay TV distributors lost 762,000 subscribers from January through March, the worst first-quarter result in history.Disney is working to launch an ESPN subscription streaming service and bought a 33 percent stake in video-streaming firm BAMTech for $1 billion last year.The future of ESPN has been in focus since August 2015 when Chief Executive Officer Bob Iger acknowledged "modest" subscriber losses at the sports network.ESPN's television unit is laying off 10 percent of its 1,000 on-air staff, Reuters reported last month, citing a source.
Hopefully the stock will break down and create an entry point.
Remember there is a big problem with ESPN being sold online. That is why Disney was vague about when and how they are going to offer an ESPN subscription model online, they only acknowledge there is an "inevitability" to it. That sounds like they don't yet have a plan.For years ESPN was the most important network on cable and the only way for a cable company could get it was to agree to carry it on basic and guarantee a minimum percentage of their cable subscribers would pay for ESPN. So ESPN was forced upon everyone. And for years that was ok because ESPN was the premier "must have" channel on cable. That is changing now.In exchange for ESPN being forced on cable subscribers, Disney agreed to not compete with them by offering it online. If they did, this allows cable companies to void the agreement. So, if ESPN offers WatchESPN as a standalone online subscription, that allows cable companies to immediately pull it from basic and lower basic cable fees by the amount of ESPN (and ESPN2, ESPNU et al if they are on basic too). They would then offer these channels for the same amount as a premium service. So everyone here would see their cable bill go down by $7 to $9 a month and then subscribe to "ESPN premium" for the same amount and nothing changes. The problem is surveys say 50% of basic cable customers would NOT subscribe to ESPN premium and ESPN would lose half their revenues and put Disney in a world of hurt.Despite Disney being a huge conglomerate, nearly every question on the investor call last night to Disney CEO Bob Iger was about ESPN. No questions on ABC, Movies and/or theme parks. ESPN is half of Disney profits and the takeaway is "they don't know what to do." That is why the stock is down today despite every non-ESPN business Disney owns is booming. Disney might as well change it stock ticker symbol to ESPN because that is how the company is viewed right now.Disney’s ESPN Looks to an Online Future, as Cable Subscribers DeclinePlans to launch digital subscription services focused on particular sports, teams and regionshttps://www.wsj.com/articles/disney-profit-rises-despite-espn-woes-1494362684By Ben FritzUpdated May 9, 2017 10:10 p.m. ETFaced with subscriber and viewership losses, Walt Disney Co.’s DIS 0.58% ESPN is planning to launch digital subscription services focused on particular sports, teams and regions.Disney Chief Executive Robert Iger on Tuesday once again spent much of a conference call with Wall Street analysts following the release of financial results discussing the fate of ESPN. The sports channel accounts for the majority of profits in the company’s cable business, which has lost momentum in the past few years while other divisions are booming.Disney had announced plans to launch this year its first ESPN “over the top” service, similar to Netflix , that will include sports not on the linear network like baseball. Mr. Iger’s comments on services tuned to the narrow interests of particular sports fans indicate many more are in development.The CEO said there are no current plans to offer a replica of the ESPN cable channel online to those who don’t subscribe to cable, akin to Time Warner Inc.’s HBO Now, but conceded “there is an inevitability to that.”
I agree, Smuggles, that ESPN has become an albatross for Disney. And I think you accurately describe some of the problems going forward.I would have loved to have bought DIS years ago, but I didn't, and I'm not buying now.
Let me say something nice about Disney. Ask Warren Buffett who is the best corporate manager working today. Without hesitation, he says it is Bob Iger of Disney.He is without question right. So while Disney has a seemingly intractable problem in figuring out how to stop the subscriber losses at ESPN, they have possibly the most qualified person on the planet to deal with this issue in Iger.Now, this does not mean that Iger will figure it out, it could be a problem with no solution. But if Iger died tomorrow, the stock is low to mid-90s next trade ($109 now). That is how much faith people have in his ability to solve this issue. The question is, can he? No one sees a solution to ESPN subscriber losses, all we have is hope that Iger will figure it out.
Just think of how rich you would be if you went short DIS and put hemlock in Iger's mimosa!
Naah, lot more opportunities to give really bad managers hemlock and go long the stock and watch it soar when they are out of the picture. I think a lot of them are in the healthcare industry.
Maybe we could make a board just for MU82 and Heisenberg?
So, if ESPN offers WatchESPN as a standalone online subscription, that allows cable companies to immediately pull it from basic and lower basic cable fees by the amount of ESPN (and ESPN2, ESPNU et al if they are on basic too). They would then offer these channels for the same amount as a premium service. So everyone here would see their cable bill go down by $7 to $9 a month and then subscribe to "ESPN premium" for the same amount and nothing changes. The problem is surveys say 50% of basic cable customers would NOT subscribe to ESPN premium and ESPN would lose half their revenues and put Disney in a world of hurt.