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MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: CrackedSidewalksSays on August 27, 2011, 02:00:05 AM

Title: [Cracked Sidewalks] Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add
Post by: CrackedSidewalksSays on August 27, 2011, 02:00:05 AM
Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add

Written by: jpudner@concentricgrasstops.com (bamamarquettefan1)

Deonte Burton, the 28th best 2013 player in the country according to Rivals, will reportedly be on campus this week.  While some fans seem purely focused on getting a 7-footer, the fact is that very few 7-footers are very good and that the 6-foot-4 Burton could be the top-rated player signed by Marquette ever.



While our obsession with signing a 7-footer is understandable after watching the Three Amigos success cut short by the lack of any inside presence, MU fans need to understand on one fact when new recruits are announced:



Swing men between 6-4 and 6-8 are the most likely players to emerge as stars, and they are more likely to be great players than those 6-11 or taller.



Sports Illustrated piece on Value Add



Sports Illustrated was kind enough to feature an article on my Value Add (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/luke_winn/08/23/Value.add.formula/index.html) system this weekend, and when I look back at the ratings I realized that only ONE out of 101 players 6-foot-11 or taller last year was a top 100 player (Zeller, UNC).



In considering the importance of signing a 7-footer, fans should consider that MU went up against four of the Top 7 in the country this year, and except for Zeller none of these guys compare to a dominant swing man like Burton:





table.tableizer-table {border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;}

.tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;}





7 footers (best 7)TeamPointsReboundsBlocks[/tr]
Tyler ZellerUNC27120
Kenny FreaseXavier 1252
Robert SacreGonzaga 572
Alec BrownWisconsin Green Bay380
Mike TisdaleIllinois DNP  
Jason WashburnUtahDNP  
Garrett StutzWichita St.DNP  
Average vs. MU 1281



So as much as I hope Buzz lands 7-footer Blaise Mbargorba, or at least a 6-foot-11 guy like Prince Ibeh or Phillip Nolan to balance our roster, signing 6-foot-4 Deonte Burton during his reported visit this week would be MUCH bigger for the program so no fan should utter “oh no, another swing man.”



As you can see from the table at the bottom of this post of players by height, players between 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-8 are the most likely to be stars, with 268 of 1724 ranking in the top 500.  



Butler best 6-foot-7 player in country last year



One fact I stumbled onto in sorting Value Adds by height is that Jimmy Butler was the best 6-foot-7 player in the country last year – but perhaps even more exciting is that perhaps the best 2014 player in the country, 6-foot-7 Andrew Wiggins, is considering Marquette.



Sure I love having Chris Otule’s defensive presence, and would love to add a big, but the fact is MU outrebounded their Big East opponents last year due to the play of swingmen, and 6-7/6-6 players Jamil Wilson, Jae Crowder, Jamail Jones and Juan Anderson are likely to keep that going.



The following table shows how many D1 players last year played at each height, how many of those players ranked in the Top 500, who the best was at each height, and the height of each player on Marquette’s roster or at the top of MUs recruiting targets. The figures shown are the Rivals national rankings, which are not out for 2014 players, but all of the 2014s listed will be near the top of the national rankings:





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.tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;}





HeightCountTop 500BestCurrent MU Roster (possible recruits)[/tr]
7-foot-320Somogyi, UC-Santa Barbara 
7-foot-210Bachynski, Arizona State 
7-foot-161#235 Tisdale, Ill 
7-foot-0344#32 Zeller, UNC(2014 Blaise Mbargorba)
6-foot-115810#104 Benson, OaklandChris Otule (2012 Prince Ibeh #55, 2012 Phillip Nolan #103)
6-foot-1014822#11 Leuer, Wisconsin 
6-foot-926535#10 Sullinger, OSU(2014 Paul White,  2013 Kyle Washington, 2012 Chris Washburn #112, 2012 Zach Auguste #94)
6-foot-838160#7 Williams, AZDavante Gardner
6-foot-736149#21 Butler, MUJamil Wilson (2014 Andrew Wiggins)
6-foot-634955#5 Dahlman, WoffordJae Crowder, Jamail Jones, Juan Anderson
6-foot-531549#15 Brooks, Providence 
6-foot-431855#14 Jenkins, VandyVander Blue, signees Jamal Ferguson and TJ Taylor (2013 Deonte Burton #28)
6-foot-331443#4 Jenkins, HofstraTodd Mayo, Jake Thomas (RS)
6-foot-227132#3 Fredette, BYUDarius Johnson-Odom
6-foot-123734#1 Taylor, Wisc.Junior Cadougan, Derrick Wilson
6-foot-018029#8 McConnell, St. Mary’s 
5-foot-118810#80 Hamilton, Oakland 
5-foot-10957#20 Warren, Mississippi 
5-foot-9362#120 Young, Clemson 
5-foot-8123#35 Thomas, Washington 
5-foot-760Qualls, Grambling 
5-foot-620Taylor, FL Atlantic



http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2011/08/swing-men-are-better-than-7-footers-and.html
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add
Post by: Henry Sugar on August 27, 2011, 05:58:55 AM
Holy Modesty, Pudner

The entire article on SI is based on you!

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/luke_winn/08/23/Value.add.formula/index.html
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add
Post by: MUMac on August 27, 2011, 07:09:08 AM
That is damn impressive to have a column written about your work.  Congratulations!
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add
Post by: ATL MU Warrior on August 27, 2011, 07:23:38 AM
Very Cool BAMA.  Maybe I need to start listening to you and Sugar... ;D
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on August 27, 2011, 08:58:05 AM
Posters like bama are what make this site worthwhile. Do you ever do any work with Buzz? I know he loves tempo-free stats.
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add
Post by: brewcity77 on August 27, 2011, 09:51:44 AM
Awesome work, bama! Getting some serious props when SI does an article based solely on your work.
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add
Post by: GGGG on August 27, 2011, 10:32:01 AM
Ditto on the awesome work Bama.  And it shows that Buzz's strategy of multiple switchables is better than 7-foot projects.
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add
Post by: bamamarquettefan on August 27, 2011, 11:05:19 AM
Thanks guys - while they had called a couple of weeks ago, have to admit I was pretty blown away when the article hit last night.  Thanks to Cracked Sidewalks for giving me the platform for all my crazy ideas and MUScoop for creating the back-and-forth forum so that some of you can give me constructive criticism when I start down the wrong path!
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add
Post by: Marqus Howard on August 27, 2011, 11:12:11 AM
Awesome post. It'd be great if we could get Ender - I mean Andrew Wiggins, but the list of schools after him is insane. His father played in the NBA and his mother was an Olympic athlete. Being a superstar athlete is in his blood.
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on August 27, 2011, 11:28:11 AM
Very sweet....not only that, you worked in some business pub to boot   ;D

I think your previous work (and Pomeroy) indicated that Bigs make a statistical difference on defense. Interesting too that 10 out of first 20 drafted in NBA were PF's or Centers, then only 13 out of 40 for the remainder. Also interesting that the media has proclaimed UCONN the favorite now that Drummond committed.

Wilson and Anderson are going to star at MU as did the switchables in that height range before them under Buzz (Wes, Zar, JFB).  

One nit, please add Steve Taylor to the recruit list.  

So, on to my question in regard to your statement on Burton:  What do you see statistically to make your claim that the "the 6-foot-4 Burton could be the top-rated player signed by Marquette ever"?  The kid is an absolute athletic stud, but that would be a high hurdle.  I am interested in your perspective.

Thanks...great stuff.
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add
Post by: mileskishnish72 on August 27, 2011, 11:31:34 AM
Way cool, Bama.
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add
Post by: dwaderoy2004 on August 27, 2011, 11:49:27 AM
well done, sir.  Luke Winn is probably my favorite college hoops writer, so this just adds to my respect for him...
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add
Post by: GGGG on August 27, 2011, 12:40:26 PM
Quote from: dwaderoy2004 on August 27, 2011, 11:49:27 AM
well done, sir.  Luke Winn is probably my favorite college hoops writer, so this just adds to my respect for him...

Even though he grew up in a big Badger household?   ;)
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add
Post by: bamamarquettefan on August 27, 2011, 12:59:44 PM
Quote from: Jamailman on August 27, 2011, 08:58:05 AM
Posters like bama are what make this site worthwhile. Do you ever do any work with Buzz? I know he loves tempo-free stats.

I have actually never talked to Buzz or any of the coaches despite our shared love of number crunching!

On Dr Blackheart's question about my note that, "6-foot-4 Burton could be the top-rated player signed by Marquette ever," that was not statistically based - just based on the fact that he is on the verge of breaking the Rivals Top 25 so presumably could be a 5-star if he moves up just a couple of spots.  And gosh, sorry Steve Taylor wasn't typed in teh 6-foot-7 box, I'd like to fix that but don't want it to repost the article here.
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add
Post by: brewcity77 on August 27, 2011, 02:34:06 PM
Quote from: bamamarquettefan on August 27, 2011, 12:59:44 PM
I have actually never talked to Buzz or any of the coaches despite our shared love of number crunching!

On Dr Blackheart's question about my note that, "6-foot-4 Burton could be the top-rated player signed by Marquette ever," that was not statistically based - just based on the fact that he is on the verge of breaking the Rivals Top 25 so presumably could be a 5-star if he moves up just a couple of spots.  And gosh, sorry Steve Taylor wasn't typed in teh 6-foot-7 box, I'd like to fix that but don't want it to repost the article here.

Weren't Doc Rivers, Kerry Trotter, and Bernard Toone rated higher? I thought they were all top-10 type players.
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add
Post by: Nukem2 on August 27, 2011, 02:41:24 PM
Quote from: brewcity77 on August 27, 2011, 02:34:06 PM
Weren't Doc Rivers, Kerry Trotter, and Bernard Toone rated higher? I thought they were all top-10 type players.
Not Trotter, though he was a BurgerBoy. Butch Lee, Mo Lucas, Jim Chones, Walter Downing and Jim Boylan were all in  a Top 10 list in their day.
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add
Post by: mr.MUskie on August 27, 2011, 03:38:15 PM
Nice work, Bama!
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add
Post by: mu_hilltopper on August 28, 2011, 04:58:33 PM
BTW, some may not know .. John wrote a book about MU Basketball:

http://www.amazon.com/Ultimate-Hoops-Guide-Marquette-University/dp/1427403090/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1314568684&sr=8-1
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add
Post by: kryza on August 28, 2011, 05:56:31 PM
Quote from: mu_hilltopper on August 28, 2011, 04:58:33 PM
BTW, some may not know .. John wrote a book about MU Basketball:

http://www.amazon.com/Ultimate-Hoops-Guide-Marquette-University/dp/1427403090/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1314568684&sr=8-1


I don't know what's more impressive, being a published author mentioned in SI or being a father of 9 children! Either way, congratulations are in order! 
Title: should have said Burton could be biggest recruit since Rivers
Post by: bamamarquettefan on August 28, 2011, 09:56:18 PM
Quote from: kryza on August 28, 2011, 05:56:31 PM
I don't know what's more impressive, being a published author mentioned in SI or being a father of 9 children! Either way, congratulations are in order! 

LOL. Well, the 9 children use up what money I make, and being published took away hundreds of billable hours, so together they are probably a recipe for bankruptcy, but thanks :-)

On the highest ranking, I should have clarified that I meant if he signs and improves a bit on his #28 Rivals ranking he might be the highest in the modern era of high school rankings, but I do see that the Basketball Encyclopedia goes back to Trottier as #17, Doc Rivers #8, but has no record for of Al's great recruits - several of whom he wouldn't match.  Perhaps I should just use, "potentially the biggest recruit since Rivers" if making a statement like that in the future, and even at that he has not caught Trottier or Blue in the rankings yet.
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add
Post by: Henry Sugar on August 31, 2011, 07:58:47 AM
http://thebiglead.com/index.php/2011/08/30/jordan-taylor-wisconsins-point-guard-is-loved-by-the-stat-guys/

The concept of Offensive Value Add was picked up by The Big Lead, where they question Taylor as the #1 selection. 
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add
Post by: Blackhat on August 31, 2011, 08:25:32 AM
Congratulations bama!
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add
Post by: bilsu on August 31, 2011, 08:29:57 AM
I think the comparison is somewhat skewed by the fact that any bigman with talent ends up in the pros early. There simply are not many really good bigmen in college to compare to.
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add
Post by: nycwarrior on August 31, 2011, 08:43:59 AM
+1 to Pudner props.
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add
Post by: karavotsos on September 03, 2011, 12:24:03 AM
Quote from: Henry Sugar on August 31, 2011, 07:58:47 AM
http://thebiglead.com/index.php/2011/08/30/jordan-taylor-wisconsins-point-guard-is-loved-by-the-stat-guys/

The concept of Offensive Value Add was picked up by The Big Lead, where they question Taylor as the #1 selection. 

I agree with the big lead, in this case, as I think I've expressed before.  I think it was Martin Luther King Jr who said, "sabermetrics works in baseball because its an individual sport masquerading as a team sport, but it doesn't work in basketball because its a team sport masquerading as an individual sport."  I think that's from '57.  Triple Rock speech. 
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on September 06, 2011, 05:18:02 PM
Pudner still scoring with Winn who applied the Value-Add by position in the efficiency era.  Today is PG's, where Travis had the 7th best season.  Awesome stuff.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/luke_winn/09/06/value.add.point.guards/index.html
Title: Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add
Post by: Skatastrophy on September 07, 2011, 07:47:15 PM
Luke Winn just came out with another article, more CS love... along with a little bit for Novak and Jimmy F'n Butler :D

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/luke_winn/09/07/shooting.guards.wings/