What REALLY happened after Markus went back into game

[MU82]

In other threads, there have been dozens (by now, maybe hundreds) of references about how the Warriors blew the game after Markus came back in with 8:42 to go.

Much of the blame has been put on Markus. He took bad shots. He was loose with the ball. Sam played "differently." Etc.

Let's take a look at the facts and see.

First of all, the score was 40-33 when Markus left and 59-51 when he came back in. So even though many Scoopers thought we dominated while Markus sat, the fact was that MU only outscored SH 19-18 during that span. We played fine.

As for the ending, glutton for punishment that I am, I re-watched it and took notes ...

8:42 Powell awarded basket on Morrow GT. 59-51 MU

8:42 Markus returns to game.

8:32 Markus drives and misses 5-foot pull-up.

8:15 Joey misses dunk.

7:22 Sam misses 15-footer.

6:30 Sam hits open 3 on nice pass from Joey. 62-55 MU

5:35 Joey misses long 3.

5:15 Markus misses contested 3.

4:41 Sacar scores on putback of own miss on nice IB play by Wojo/pass by Markus. MU 64-55

In other words, in the first 4 minutes after Markus returned, we actually increased our lead by a point.

It all went to shyte after that, as we couldn't get a stop and the following crapola ensued:

4:04 Joey rejected in lane with 20 seconds left on shot clock.

3:38 Sam misses open 3 with 18 seconds left on shot clock.

3:17 After Powell scores, Wojo calls TO and subs Bailey for Joey. MU 64-62

3:02 Markus misses long (but open) 3. (Powell then ties it)

2:34 Markus turnover, loses dribble trying to drive to hoop.

2:25 Powell long 3. 67-64 SH

2:00 Theo misses jump hook outside his normal range.

1:15 Sam airballs wild, unnecessary 3. We luckily get ball back after review.

1:00 Sam misses very closely contested 3.

:56 Rhoden makes 2 FTs. 69-64 SH

:43 Sam misses forced 3; Anim rebound.

:37 Markus misses open 3.

:34 Nzei makes 2 FTs. 71-64 SH

:24 Sacar misses jumper.

:21 Nzei makes 2 FTs. 73-64

Them's the facts.

So ... how much of the fade over the last 8 1/2 minutes really was on Markus?

[Dr. Blackheart]

So, in other words, those last four minutes where like Buzz in Louisville, aina?  Powell got hot and MU's sphincter tightened.

[jaygall31]

Joey really looked like a frosh last night.

[NotAnAlum]

Very good analysis 82.  God Bless you for having the fortitude to re-watch that mess.
My feeling when watching the game in real time was that Wojo needed to put MH back in when he did.  Yes we were doing ok with Sacar bringing the ball us BUT Hall was starting to figure that out and we needed a second semi reliable ball handler on the floor.  Also it was obvious that Hall was making their final push to win the game and with the crowd getting louder you needed your POY candidate in the game.  I think to do otherwise Wojo would have been accused of "playing not to lose" and trying to run out the clock. 
The problem with Markus was that he did not play like a POY in the final minutes.  When you are on the road and things are going against you, you drive to the lane and try to get to the rim or pick up fouls.  For some reason, I don't know if his wrist was hurting or he was bothered by the 7'2" guy or he just was having an off day Markus didn't get into the lane the way he normally does. And the problem with closing out games like this one or Nova is you MUST get in the lane and get to the line.  AND the real weakness of this team regardless of all the talk about who is a PG and who isn't or who might be is that there are really only two MU players who can beat their man off the dribble and are athletic enough to finish at the rim or get fouled.  Sacar and Markus.  That (and ball handling in general) are the weakness on this team that stop them from being GREAT.  That is why we lost the game.  I'm sure that is what Wojo was telling them which is why we saw Joey trying to drive which he really can't do against a Hall line up loaded with guards. 
This team is still very good.  Had they taken care of the ball earlier in the game they have an insurmountable lead at the 8 minute mark.  But if Markus is just an average guard and we don't have enough guards then we're just a top 30 team and top 30 teams don't win on the road against a desperate opponent who does have a POY candidate and plays like one.

[MU82]

Very good analysis 82.  God Bless you for having the fortitude to re-watch that mess.
My feeling when watching the game in real time was that Wojo needed to put MH back in when he did.  Yes we were doing ok with Sacar bringing the ball us BUT Hall was starting to figure that out and we needed a second semi reliable ball handler on the floor.  Also it was obvious that Hall was making their final push to win the game and with the crowd getting louder you needed your POY candidate in the game.  I think to do otherwise Wojo would have been accused of "playing not to lose" and trying to run out the clock. 
The problem with Markus was that he did not play like a POY in the final minutes.  When you are on the road and things are going against you, you drive to the lane and try to get to the rim or pick up fouls.  For some reason, I don't know if his wrist was hurting or he was bothered by the 7'2" guy or he just was having an off day Markus didn't get into the lane the way he normally does. And the problem with closing out games like this one or Nova is you MUST get in the lane and get to the line.  AND the real weakness of this team regardless of all the talk about who is a PG and who isn't or who might be is that there are really only two MU players who can beat their man off the dribble and are athletic enough to finish at the rim or get fouled.  Sacar and Markus.  That (and ball handling in general) are the weakness on this team that stop them from being GREAT.  That is why we lost the game.  I'm sure that is what Wojo was telling them which is why we saw Joey trying to drive which he really can't do against a Hall line up loaded with guards. 
This team is still very good.  Had they taken care of the ball earlier in the game they have an insurmountable lead at the 8 minute mark.  But if Markus is just an average guard and we don't have enough guards then we're just a top 30 team and top 30 teams don't win on the road against a desperate opponent who does have a POY candidate and plays like one.

Lots there, NAA, and I agree with most of it.

One certainly could argue that MU's looseness with the ball, led by Markus, kept us from building such a big lead that SH couldn't have come all the way back.

I definitely will agree that when it came to nut-cuttin' time, SH's star guard way outplayed our star guard. Powell just took over, and not a single Warrior had an answer. Not Markus, not Sam, not Joey, not Sacar and not Wojo.

Markus drove twice after he got back in. Once on the very next possession, when his short pull-up hit the front of the rim, and once after Powell tied it, when he turned it over dribbling through traffic. Not sure why he made no other attempts. Sacar and Joey each made a couple tries at taking it inside; Joey's dunk would have been pretty big.

One other thing I noticed watching the ending a second time: Sacar was the primary ballhandler on a LOT of possessions. Maybe we'll see more of that going forward, if nothing else to keep Markus fresher.

Markus has not been the "closer" that his reputation would suggest he should be, but he certainly was a major, major factor in several of our close wins earlier this season, including scoring bunches of points down the stretch and/or in OT.

I'm not giving up on him, and I'm not giving up on the team. We are exactly where Nova was 8 days ago -- a former first-place team that has lost 3 in a row. We don't have as much time in the regular season to right the ship as they did, but we still have plenty of time to have a great stretch of games in the BET and the NCAAs.

[NotAnAlum]

I'm not giving up on him, and I'm not giving up on the team. We are exactly where Nova was 8 days ago -- a former first-place team that has lost 3 in a row.

This is where I am.  Disappointed that its unlikely we win the BE when it was ours for the taking.  Don't get that many chances but we should have one next year.
Beat GT, win first game in the BE tourney against a likely tired team without much depth.  Probably keep a 4 seed.  Should win the opening game.  On the other games in both tourneys try to enjoy the games and hope we preform well win or lose.

[skianth16]

Them's the facts.

So ... how much of the fade over the last 8 1/2 minutes really was on Markus?

On the other hand...

Here's an undisputed fact - the offense was a hot dumpster fire for the final 10 minutes, with MU scoring only 5 points
Another fact - that overlaps heavily with Markus coming back in

That doesn't mean the loss is on him. But it does mean our team plays differently when he's in, and last night is not the first example of it. Sure, we missed some decent looks, and we could/should have had a couple more buckets. But 5 points in 10 minutes is awful. And we were clicking on offense during the stretch when Markus sat. I'm not sure exactly when he left the games but we were certainly averaging more than half a point per minute when he was on the bench.

[tower912]

It was posted.   While Markus was on the bench, MU outscored SHU 19-18.   

[MU82]

On the other hand...

Here's an undisputed fact - the offense was a hot dumpster fire for the final 10 minutes, with MU scoring only 5 points
Another fact - that overlaps heavily with Markus coming back in

That doesn't mean the loss is on him. But it does mean our team plays differently when he's in, and last night is not the first example of it. Sure, we missed some decent looks, and we could/should have had a couple more buckets. But 5 points in 10 minutes is awful. And we were clicking on offense during the stretch when Markus sat. I'm not sure exactly when he left the games but we were certainly averaging more than half a point per minute when he was on the bench.

The beautiful thing about facts is that a decent debater can make his/her argument around just about whatever data he/she has available.

I certainly don't dispute what you say, in general.

I do not have data to show, over the course of the season, how the offense did with Markus on the floor vs. without him on the floor. And I'm far too lazy to go figure it out, so if you have it I'd love to see it.

I do know that with Markus as the likely BEPOY, we were 23-4 on Feb. 26. That's also an undisputed fact.

Another fact: Although it was Sam who took over against Georgetown in the game Markus missed almost all of, scoring 31 points, Sam somehow averaged 20 points on 54% shooting over the next 5 games even though Markus averaged 37 minutes -- one of several examples I could give about how Markus' presence on the floor not only didn't cramp Sam's style but enhanced it.

Oh, and the next game after that stretch? While Sam and Joey were combining for 4 points, Markus was scoring 38 against Nova to put us in first place.

So sure, facts are fun!

Anyhoo, all I really wanted to do in the OP of this thread was show what actually happened, possession by possession, after Markus went back into last night's game, because there had been a lot of guessing and "from what I recall" statements in other threads.

I actually was surprised to see that we outscored SH during the first 4 minutes after Markus' return ... before Powell totally went off and we lost our poise.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

Joey really looked like a frosh last night.

Last night? 😳

[Not A Serious Person]

So, in other words, those last four minutes where like Buzz in Louisville, aina?  Powell got hot and MU's sphincter tightened.

The next time MU blows a big lead and loses on the road will it be compared to Buzz at Louisville or Wojo at Seton Hall?

[GooooMarquette]

Great analysis.

But you misunderstand - many of us aren't "blaming" Markus. We're just pointing out that MU was much more effective as a team while he was sitting. That might be partly because Markus was off; partly because others play differently (more deferential or tentative) when he is in the game; or partly because we gave SHU the opponent they had planned for all week. The "blame" doesn't matter; it just matters that we built a big lead with him out, and the wheels fell off when he was in.

I love Markus and Wojo, and cannot stand posters who throw them (or other MU players) under the bus for every little thing. But posters who defend everything Wojo or Markus do can be equally annoying.

[HowardsWorld]

Markus howard went 0-3 and had 1 turnover in the time he checked in to the time SH grabbed the lead 67-64 on a 3 ball by Powell. MU might have extended the lead but it was no due to anything MH did. You don't need to review plays to know that the offense last night was smoother when it went through Sam. While it was not directly Howards fault they blew the lead he did not help in any single way.

[NickelDimer]

Great analysis.

But you misunderstand - many of us aren't "blaming" Markus. We're just pointing out that MU was much more effective as a team while he was sitting. That might be partly because Markus was off; partly because others play differently (more deferential or tentative) when he is in the game; or partly because we gave SHU the opponent they had planned for all week. The "blame" doesn't matter; it just matters that we built a big lead with him out, and the wheels fell off when he was in.

I love Markus and Wojo, and cannot stand posters who throw them (or other MU players) under the bus for every little thing. But posters who defend everything Wojo or Markus do can be equally annoying.

I agree and I’d even go a step further in saying Markus wasn’t to blame as much as his teammates were. They’re the ones that changed their approach when he came back suddenly forcing bad shots (Sam) and unnecessary highlight dunks (Joey). It’s not like Markus cane in chuckin but his teammates sure played differently when he came back. I also can’t for the life of me figure out why Ed didn’t get more minutes late. There have been a handful of games this year where he’s had “it” offensively yet his usage  is exactly the same. Wojo has to do better with lineups

[RJax55]

Last night? 😳

The back half of conference play has not been kind to Joey. He's the weak link defensively and coaches have had success isolating him. I thought an adjustment Wojo should have made against Nova was to switch Sam on to Samuels, as Joey couldn't handle him.

Offensively, you see the potential, but he needs to add strength in the off-season. The way MU is running their offense and the way teams are guarding Markus, Joey is getting favorable match-ups on the switches. Happened all game yesterday. Unfortunately, he's not taking advantage.

Next to lack of options at the guard spot (Chartouny has been an abysmal failure), Joey being a year away is the biggest issue I see at the moment.

[muwarrior69]

With all the double teaming on Markus I just don't understand how we can't find the open man.

[Daniel]

Not blam g Markus ...my God we would be no where without h8m.  Just that flow was going retry well when he was out, and maybe you just ride with the flow.   

Love Markus - tough kid with huge talent obviously.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

With all the double teaming on Markus I just don't understand how we can't find the open man.

I don't understand how he doesn't draw more fouls when teams crowd and press him out to the half court line.  Its insane.  He gets fouled constantly. 

[T-Bone]

Good frame by frame analysis.

[MU82]

Great analysis.

But you misunderstand - many of us aren't "blaming" Markus. We're just pointing out that MU was much more effective as a team while he was sitting. That might be partly because Markus was off; partly because others play differently (more deferential or tentative) when he is in the game; or partly because we gave SHU the opponent they had planned for all week. The "blame" doesn't matter; it just matters that we built a big lead with him out, and the wheels fell off when he was in.

I love Markus and Wojo, and cannot stand posters who throw them (or other MU players) under the bus for every little thing. But posters who defend everything Wojo or Markus do can be equally annoying.

Thanks, Goooooo.

Actually, I don't misunderstand at all. I simply don't see evidence that "MU was much more effective as a team while he was sitting."

He played just about the entire first half and we had a 6-point lead at halftime. We added a point to that lead early in the second half (with him having just made a 3 -- he might have been ready to get on a roll) before he left with his third foul. During the time he sat, we only outscored them 19-18. And in the first 4 minutes after he came back, we outscored them by a point, with Sam benefiting from his presence to hit a wide-open 3 and Sacar getting a pass from him to score.

So from the opening tip until there were 4 1/2 minutes to go in the game, we were +8 with Markus on the floor and +1 without Markus on the floor.

In the last 4 minutes, it all turned to shyte -- Powell made everything he threw at the basket, 50% FT shooters swished their FTs, and none of our players could do anything on O. So yes, if that stretch is included, we were less effective with Markus on the floor during the entirety of the game. And of course, as much as we'd like to not include it, we do have to include those last 4 1/2 minutes.

But when I see the phrase "much more effective," I'm thinking we were bad with Markus on the floor and great when he wasn't on the floor. And that simply wasn't the case for most of the game. Nor has it been the case in most games this season.

Sam scored 31 points vs Georgetown in the game Markus left early with his injury. But over the next 5 games, with Markus playing 37 mpg, Sam averaged 20 ppg. So it's not as if Markus' return held Sam back. Does Sam defer to Markus too much? I would argue absolutely. I often find myself yelling at the TV for Sam to be more assertive, especially on the block. He is too good to just drift around the 3-point line.

We are in total agreement that "posters who defend everything Wojo or Markus do can be equally annoying." Thankfully, neither of us does that.

I frequently point out times I think Wojo could have done better. And I have said many times that Markus is a scorer with few PG skills who is stuck in a PG's body and a PG's role; he has poor court vision when it comes to spotting open teammates, he will never be close to Chris Paul or Steve Nash when it comes to dishing dimes, he takes a few really bad shots every game, and he is too loose with the basketball.

But like Popeye, he yam what he yam. We have been lucky enough to watch one of the greatest scorers we've ever seen and we ever will see, a guy whose long stretches of excellence have helped us win numerous games these last 3 years. Seems to be a really fine young man, too, though I don't know him so can't say that with 100% certainty.

When we were going well, it was funny to watch some Scoopers bend themselves into pretzels to avoid choosing Markus for SOTG when he'd have 30+ points, 5 reb and 5 assists and their chosen player would have 13 points (or, in Heldt's case, a couple of rebounds).

Most of us who defend Markus know exactly what he is. I wonder how many of those who routinely take shots at him (not you) know exactly what we've been fortunate enough to have.

[Lennys Tap]

Them's the facts.

So ... how much of the fade over the last 8 1/2 minutes really was on Markus?

8:42 left, we lead by 8. We get outscored 22-5, lose by 9. POY and leading Big East leading scorer (and i think our top assist man) goes 0-4, 0 assists, 1 turnover in that time. I'd say quite a bit.

[MU82]

8:42 left, we lead by 8. We get outscored 22-5, lose by 9. POY and leading Big East leading scorer (and i think our top assist man) goes 0-4, 0 assists, 1 turnover in that time. I'd say quite a bit.

And I'd agree with you, Lenny.

I don't want to tear down others, though, so I won't assess a percentage of blame to each of several.

But I'd say quite a bit.

[GooooMarquette]

Thanks, Goooooo.

Actually, I don't misunderstand at all. I simply don't see evidence that "MU was much more effective as a team while he was sitting."

He played just about the entire first half and we had a 6-point lead at halftime. We added a point to that lead early in the second half (with him having just made a 3 -- he might have been ready to get on a roll) before he left with his third foul. During the time he sat, we only outscored them 19-18. And in the first 4 minutes after he came back, we outscored them by a point, with Sam benefiting from his presence to hit a wide-open 3 and Sacar getting a pass from him to score.

So from the opening tip until there were 4 1/2 minutes to go in the game, we were +8 with Markus on the floor and +1 without Markus on the floor.

In the last 4 minutes, it all turned to shyte -- Powell made everything he threw at the basket, 50% FT shooters swished their FTs, and none of our players could do anything on O. So yes, if that stretch is included, we were less effective with Markus on the floor during the entirety of the game. And of course, as much as we'd like to not include it, we do have to include those last 4 1/2 minutes.

But when I see the phrase "much more effective," I'm thinking we were bad with Markus on the floor and great when he wasn't on the floor. And that simply wasn't the case for most of the game. Nor has it been the case in most games this season.

Sam scored 31 points vs Georgetown in the game Markus left early with his injury. But over the next 5 games, with Markus playing 37 mpg, Sam averaged 20 ppg. So it's not as if Markus' return held Sam back. Does Sam defer to Markus too much? I would argue absolutely. I often find myself yelling at the TV for Sam to be more assertive, especially on the block. He is too good to just drift around the 3-point line.

We are in total agreement that "posters who defend everything Wojo or Markus do can be equally annoying." Thankfully, neither of us does that.

I frequently point out times I think Wojo could have done better. And I have said many times that Markus is a scorer with few PG skills who is stuck in a PG's body and a PG's role; he has poor court vision when it comes to spotting open teammates, he will never be close to Chris Paul or Steve Nash when it comes to dishing dimes, he takes a few really bad shots every game, and he is too loose with the basketball.

But like Popeye, he yam what he yam. We have been lucky enough to watch one of the greatest scorers we've ever seen and we ever will see, a guy whose long stretches of excellence have helped us win numerous games these last 3 years. Seems to be a really fine young man, too, though I don't know him so can't say that with 100% certainty.

When we were going well, it was funny to watch some Scoopers bend themselves into pretzels to avoid choosing Markus for SOTG when he'd have 30+ points, 5 reb and 5 assists and their chosen player would have 13 points (or, in Heldt's case, a couple of rebounds).

Most of us who defend Markus know exactly what he is. I wonder how many of those who routinely take shots at him (not you) know exactly what we've been fortunate enough to have.

So we weren't "much more effective" with him out..as long as you ignore what happened (with him on the floor) for the last 4 1/2 minutes? That's like saying November 22, 1963 wasn't too bad a day for JFK, as long as you don't take account of the part where he was shot. You can't simply disregard the part you don't like. I know you kind of acknowledge that in your post...but then you seem to disregard it because "it all turned to shyte."

To me, it just makes more sense to look at the full 40 minutes and acknowledge that the +1 when he was off the floor really was "much more effective" than the -10 when he was in.

Anyhow - all good.

We Are Marquette!

[BrewCity83]

So we weren't "much more effective" with him out..as long as you ignore what happened (with him on the floor) for the last 4 1/2 minutes? That's like saying November 22, 1963 wasn't too bad a day for JFK, as long as you don't take account of the part where he was shot. You can't simply disregard the part you don't like. I know you kind of acknowledge that in your post...but then you seem to disregard it because "it all turned to shyte."

To me, it just makes more sense to look at the full 40 minutes and acknowledge that the +1 when he was off the floor really was "much more effective" than the -10 when he was in.

Anyhow - all good.

We Are Marquette!

I think the point is that the crappy last 5 minutes wasn't foreseeable based on the first 35 minutes.  Was Wojo supposed to know, based on the game up to that point, that Markus was going to finish poorly?

[WarriorFan]

I posted this in a different thread but it probably belongs here:

"I believe the reason Markus is playing point is
a) he's the best of a bad lot
b) Wojo truly wants to give him an NBA chance, and without PG skills, he's got no chance

IMHO it's time for the Markus @ point experiment to end, and move on to PG by committee while running Markus off screens as a true 2 guard.  I'd rather have Sacar or even Sam at PG than Markus.  When the other teams pressure, the press break (the one where guys pass to each other, not the one where Markus dribbles into a double team) is better for initiating the offense than Markus initiating the set offense without pressure. 

Many scouts have weighed in, and the The Athletic wrote a great article about it.  Markus is at best a fringe NBA talent and only in the perfect system.  Having him play the point any further - at the detriment of the team and it's further success - is a negative... ESPECIALLY now that all of the other BEAST teams have figure out how to stop him."

What I saw the other night - the eye test only, with no effort to support it by stats - is a workable scenario when Markus was out, and possibilities when he's in and plays off the ball.  Our worst offensive set is Markus at the top, with the ball, because he's too easy to guard one on one with a larger guard, and too reluctant to pass to the roll man on PNR, and struggles due to size to pass out of the double team.