Pomeroy up to 38

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

You're right, that is RPI. Pomeroy has us up to 35. A team like Ball State is going to be a RPI drag no matter how bad you beat them.

Ahh, RPI makes sense.  Chicos didn't specify, so I was jc.  Thanks.

[Benny B]

Dropped to 97, just ahead of DePaul and New Orleans

Saturday is gigantic to put it mildly.

If a neutral site win is "gigantic," how would you describe Dec 31, Jan 9, or any of MU's remaining road games for that matter? 

MU's RPI is going to get the benefit of UNM and their opponent's regardless of whether they win or lose.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Ahh, RPI makes sense.  Chicos didn't specify, so I was jc.  Thanks.

Yes, my reference was RPI.  I like Pomeroy, but I stick to the rating service I know for sure the NCAA uses and officially acknowledges.  (Yes, I know in the past they have said they sometimes look at other sources, but the only one that they actually mention by name is the RPI)

[ChicosBailBonds]

If a neutral site win is "gigantic," how would you describe Dec 31, Jan 9, or any of MU's remaining road games for that matter? 

MU's RPI is going to get the benefit of UNM and their opponent's regardless of whether they win or lose.

It's gigantic because it is out of conference.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Yes, my reference was RPI.  I like Pomeroy, but I stick to the rating service I know for sure the NCAA uses and officially acknowledges.  (Yes, I know in the past they have said they sometimes look at other sources, but the only one that they actually mention by name is the RPI)

Current projected RPI = 47

This is based on a projected record of 19-12. I'll bet barring any significant injury that it's in the 30's or better on selection Sunday.

[MUfan12]

Current projected RPI = 47

This is based on a projected record of 19-12. I'll bet barring any significant injury that it's in the 30's or better on selection Sunday.

Agreed. Especially if they can get a couple solid road scalps in conference play.

[Lennys Tap]

Dropped to 97, just ahead of DePaul and New Orleans

Saturday is gigantic to put it mildly.

Which, for the umpteenth time proves how completely worthless RPI is in general, but even more so at this point of the season.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Agreed. Especially if they can get a couple solid road scalps in conference play.

I guess it depends on the source RPI.   The one I use, has our projected RPI at 53.6 with a 19-12 record.


It gives us a 57% probability to beat New Mexico.  

Here are the current probabilities for our final record.  I guess the good news is that they don't think we can finish any worse than 12 wins.   

Final Record   Expected RPI   Probability
26-5                    8.0               0.02%
25-6                   11.6               0.24%
24-7                   16.6               0.87%
23-8                   22.1               3.40%
22-9                   28.4               8.10%
21-10                  35.5            14.27%
20-11                  44.4            18.62%
19-12                  54.2            19.69%
18-13                  65.2            16.55%
17-14                  77.3            10.57%
16-15                  90.2              5.08%
15-16                 102.9              1.80%
14-17                 117.7              0.63%
13-18                 135.4              0.11%
12-19                 154.5              0.04%

[ChicosBailBonds]

Which, for the umpteenth time proves how completely worthless RPI is in general, but even more so at this point of the season.

This point in the year, yes.  Completely worthless in general....the NCAA selection committee...for the umpteenth time, begs to differ.

http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/26283066/34887185


Some guy named Brent Williams doesn't find it worthless   "“If you study the numbers of coach (Thad) Matta during his time at Ohio State, you can say anytime you can play them it’s probably going to help you as far as your RPI is concerned,” Williams said. “I think they’ve won 72 percent of their Big Ten games, 77 percent of his games as a head coach."   He seems to pay attention to it, even before the season starts. 

http://www.foxsportswisconsin.com/collegebasketball/marquette-golden-eagles/story/Buzz-Williams-wants-to-see-what-his-Gold?blockID=962141

[Silkk the Shaka]

RPI Rating as of December 18,

2010: 175 (were 64 after BET, made Sweet 16)
2012: 89 (were 130 after the UWGB loss the next day, ended up at 12 on selection Sunday, made elite 8)


In short, RPI rating as of December 18 is meaningless. We were in the 100's at similar times in two of the last three years with much consternation on this board to go along with it. We ended up going to the S16 & E8. We will be in the 30s or better and safely in on selection Sunday, of that I am confident.

[Atticus]

RPI Rating as of December 18,

2010: 175 (were 64 after BET, made Sweet 16)
2012: 89 (were 130 after the UWGB loss the next day, ended up at 12 on selection Sunday, made elite 8)


In short, RPI rating as of December 18 is meaningless. We were in the 100's at similar times in two of the last three years with much consternation on this board to go along with it. We ended up going to the S16 & E8. We will be in the 30s or better and safely in on selection Sunday, of that I am confident.

So when do we play UConn, UL, Syracuse, and Pitt this year?

[🏀]

Final Record   Expected RPI   Probability
26-5                    8.0               0.02%

[Lennys Tap]

This point in the year, yes.  Completely worthless in general....the NCAA selection committee...for the umpteenth time, begs to differ.

They are worthless, when compared with multiple other rating systems, in determining a team's true strength. That doesn't mean the NCAA selection committee doesn't consider them - just not as much as in the past. Old habits, good and bad, die hard.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Apparently RPI was so meaningless in general, that it impacted us in leaving the old Big East....remember this

“I was not pleased that we issued an invitation to Tulane without any diligence to what effect that would have on our basketball product, the draw on our RPI and other such things. I was disappointed that I wasn’t able to participate as a member of the conference in the deliberation that went into adding that. There might be well articulated and very deep reasons why you would do it otherwise. But dog-gone-it, I’m not concerned about that. I’m concerned about making sure that Marquette is in a position that it can take advantage of the great investment it’s made in being successful in basketball."

 

[Silkk the Shaka]

So when do we play UConn, UL, Syracuse, and Pitt this year?

Beat New Mexico, go 12-6 in conference (7-2 at home, 5-4 on the road), and our RPI will be in the 30s or better. Without UConn, UL, Syracuse or Pitt. As I said, and as those seasons suggest, an RPI rating of 97 on December 18 is meaningless.

[Lennys Tap]

Apparently RPI was so meaningless in general, that it impacted us in leaving the old Big East....remember this

“I was not pleased that we issued an invitation to Tulane without any diligence to what effect that would have on our basketball product, the draw on our RPI and other such things. I was disappointed that I wasn’t able to participate as a member of the conference in the deliberation that went into adding that. There might be well articulated and very deep reasons why you would do it otherwise. But dog-gone-it, I’m not concerned about that. I’m concerned about making sure that Marquette is in a position that it can take advantage of the great investment it’s made in being successful in basketball."

 

For the third, and hopefully final time - worthless, not meaningless. There are many rating services who do a much better job analyzing the relative strengths of teams. Ergo, RPI is worthless as a true measuring stick. The NCAA still uses RPI (though to a lesser and lesser extent as they are dragged kicking and screaming into the 21st century) so, while worthless as a true measure, it remains at least somewhat meaningful.

[Atticus]

Beat New Mexico, go 12-6 in conference (7-2 at home, 5-4 on the road), and our RPI will be in the 30s or better. Without UConn, UL, Syracuse or Pitt. As I said, and as those seasons suggest, an RPI rating of 97 on December 18 is meaningless.

Yes, the RPI is meaningless this time of year if the conference membership was the same as it was in 2012 and 2010. Do you think the conference will get roughly the same number of teams into the tournament this year as it did those two previous years?

[Silkk the Shaka]

Yes, the RPI is meaningless this time of year if the conference membership was the same as it was in 2012 and 2010. Do you think the conference will get roughly the same number of teams into the tournament this year as it did those two previous years?

That has absolutely nothing to do with my point. With a record of 19-12 losing to New Mexico and going 11-7 in conference, MU is projected to finish the regular season ranked 47 in the RPI. Beat New Mexico and go 12-6, and we're in the 30s & safely in the tournament no question. Regardless of whether or not UConn, Louisville, Pitt, or Syracuse are in the conference or how many other Big East teams make it, and regardless of the current 97 rank.

[MUfan12]

So when do we play UConn, UL, Syracuse, and Pitt this year?

Which is why they scheduled Ohio State, at Arizona State, the Wooden Classic, at Wisconsin, and New Mexico.

[Big Papi]

So when do we play UConn, UL, Syracuse, and Pitt this year?

True it hurts not having to play UL, Syracuse, ND and Pitt but we also don't have to play Rutgers and South Florida who didn't help our RPI. 

Butler, Xavier and Creighton are the replacements and they are decent programs with good RPIs.  Plus we get Villanova, Creighton, Butler, Georgetown and Xavier at least twice this year with home and home games and maybe some of them three times so its not as bad as it seems either. 

[BM1090]

Yes, the RPI is meaningless this time of year if the conference membership was the same as it was in 2012 and 2010. Do you think the conference will get roughly the same number of teams into the tournament this year as it did those two previous years?

The percntage of teams will be similar.

[Benny B]

It's gigantic because it is out of conference.

It isn't any more "gigantic" than the wins against CSU-Fullerton or GW.

Granted, every win helps... but as far as RPI is concerned, half of the games on the schedule are more "gigantic" than a neutral court game against UNM.

I'd rather lose to UNM on a neutral court than lose at home to anyone.

[Atticus]

Which is why they scheduled Ohio State, at Arizona State, the Wooden Classic, at Wisconsin, and New Mexico.

Fixed.

[ChicosBailBonds]

It isn't any more "gigantic" than the wins against CSU-Fullerton or GW.

Granted, every win helps... but as far as RPI is concerned, half of the games on the schedule are more "gigantic" than a neutral court game against UNM.

I'd rather lose to UNM on a neutral court than lose at home to anyone.

You are correct....I'm saying this is a gigantic win in terms of optics and perception.  I absolutely agree with you that losing on a neutral court is better than losing at home.  I'm more concerned about just getting a quality win of any kind.  Getting one away from home, even if neutral court, also helps greatly not only optically but from a RPI perspective.  Thus the terminology I used.

[ChicosBailBonds]

They are worthless, when compared with multiple other rating systems, in determining a team's true strength. That doesn't mean the NCAA selection committee doesn't consider them - just not as much as in the past. Old habits, good and bad, die hard.

It doesn't appear to be the case from I'm reading or what I hear from a friend who is still a commissioner of a strong mid major conference and was the chair of the selection committee in the past.

It's used.  In some committees, it is used more and in others, used less.  It is created by the NCAA, so they have a vested interest in it.  This is also why when you see CBS put up the teams that got in (got to 5:07 mark of video), or going through their resumes, they almost always use RPI with their record and SOS.  It's a constant, they aren't using any other rating systems to portray them.  Doesn't mean they aren't using them, but the one rating system they choose to come public with is the RPI.

Don't get me wrong, I think there are better systems out there, but I'm using RPI because the NCAA uses it.

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/O06ywRxnaeY" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/O06ywRxnaeY</a>


I'd also share this Josh Pastner take on RPI


<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/CWhcA2qZfC8" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/CWhcA2qZfC8</a>