Bracketology Thread 2023

[SaveOD238]

Does anyone have the statistical data on 15 over 2 versus 14 over 3 upsets?

If only we had all of the knowledge in the world available at our fingertips...

First Google result for "2 seed vs 15 seed": https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2022-03-17/history-2-seeds-vs-15-seeds-march-madness
This article is a year old, but it hasn't really changed despite a 15 winning last year.  2s win 93% of the time.

First Google result for "3 seed vs 14 seed": https://www.thelines.com/odds/march-madness/3-vs-14/
3 seeds are 126-22, which means they win 85% of the time.  Still really good odds.

[DoctorV]

The world is our oyster

[MU82]

From The Athletic bracketologist Brian Bennett:

The final No. 2 seed looks open for business after Baylor lost to Iowa State on Thursday, sending the Bears to 11-10 in Quad 1. We went with Gonzaga for now, but keep an eye on Marquette if it can get by UConn in the Big East semis on Friday.

[mugrad_89]

Still a 3 in Lunardi’s latest iteration, but maybe the most favorable draw I’ve seen to date.

[StillAWarrior]

Still a 3 in Lunardi’s latest iteration, but maybe the most favorable draw I’ve seen to date.

I’m hoping we can be two 3s. If Buzz gets two slots, we should get two slots. More shares for the Big East to divvy up.

[wadesworld]

I’m hoping we can be two 3s. If Buzz gets two slots, we should get two slots. More shares for the Big East to divvy up.

Good call.  And more opportunities to advance.  Lose once?  No problem, still have the other 3 spot.

[StillAWarrior]

Good call.  And more opportunities to advance.  Lose once?  No problem, still have the other 3 spot.

It’d also be cool if we got on a couple of hot streaks and faced ourself in the final - guaranteed natty!

[GoldenEagles03]

Update:

https://twitter.com/DavidWorlock/status/1634218691331072000?t=Z9R3fiE-xX12uh68hjjA1g&s=19

Last night, the committee placed 8 more teams on the seed list (lines 3-4). Keep in mind that teams on the seed list will be scrubbed so movement over the next couple days is a certainty. 8 more teams were also added to the field yesterday, and more are being added this morning.

[Viper]

Still a 3 in Lunardi’s latest iteration, but maybe the most favorable draw I’ve seen to date.

UC-Irvine is not a good draw. They can ball. Fortunately Lunardi is nothing more than a guessmaster.

[MarquetteMike1977]

UC-Irvine is not a good draw. They can ball. Fortunately Lunardi is nothing more than a guessmaster.

Yes Today Joe Lunardi has Marquette as a #3 Seed playing #14 Seed UC Irvine in Des Moines with the #6 Seed being San Diego State. He also changed Marquette from the Kansas City Midwest Region to Louisville South Region

[Hards Alumni]

UC-Irvine is not a good draw. They can ball. Fortunately Lunardi is nothing more than a guessmaster.

It's the tournament.  There aren't a ton of 'good' draws.

UC Irvine is 96 Kenpom.  I'm not sure you'll find a lot of easier draws, mathematically.

Also, COLE.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Just about ready for the mods to put the word COLE into the naughty words list.

[Viper]

It's the tournament.  There aren't a ton of 'good' draws.

UC Irvine is 96 Kenpom.  I'm not sure you'll find a lot of easier draws, mathematically.

Also, COLE.

dumb question by me…I probably should have asked two years ago, but what does COLE mean?

[BrewCity83]

dumb question by me…I probably should have asked two years ago, but what does COLE mean?

Cult Of Low Expectations

[Hards Alumni]

dumb question by me…I probably should have asked two years ago, but what does COLE mean?

No dumb questions.  Keeping track of all the memes around here can be exhausting.

[PointWarrior]

UC-Irvine is not a good draw. They can ball. Fortunately Lunardi is nothing more than a guessmaster.

Is it official that at least one scooper is afraid of each and every possible 12 - 15 seed?

As I side last week, COLE strengthens itself in the post-season (like a hurricane approaching warm water).  Maybe we should have "classes" of COLE - like "Georgia Tech/Radford" COLE and "Hard to beat a team 3 times" COLE...

[MU82]

Is it official that at least one scooper is afraid of each and every possible 12 - 15 seed?

Yes

[PointWarrior]

UC-Irvine is not a good draw. They can ball. Fortunately Lunardi is nothing more than a guessmaster.

UC-Irvine can sure ball, they have lost to powerhouses:

Pepperdine, Fresno State, Santa Clara, Harvard, UCSB, CSUF, Long Beach State, UC San Diego, Hawaii

Have they even played a team that will be in the tourney?   Be very afraid.....

[HowardsWorld]

By having Baylor remain on the two line ahead of Marquette with 4 more losses the committee is basically saying it doesn't matter how many losses you have as long as you have quad 1 wins. Baylor has 5 more quad wins on double the amount of opportunities. Its also saying that if Marquette would have scheduled Kansas 4 times they could have lost every game and remained in the same exact spot.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Wisconsin is now listed on zero of the 93 brackets on Bracket Matrix.

[WhiteTrash]

UC-Irvine is not a good draw. They can ball. Fortunately Lunardi is nothing more than a guessmaster.

Teal?
I hope you are joking. If UC-Irvine is not a good draw, then MU should opt for the CBI.

[brewcity77]

Brew-

Right now I have Kansas State as the 3 seed in the west.  Alabama and Kansas get Louisville and Kansas City.  Houston is third on my S-Curve, they head to Vegas.  Purdue is last 1 seed, partly because of the play-in scenario you cover yesterday.

UCLA is 5th on my S-Curve.  They get placed in Vegas.  Texas and Baylor can't go  to the same region as Kansas, so they head to Louisville and NYC.

Which means Kansas State must be placed in Vegas.  I can see Gonzaga getting the 3 seed in Vegas in different scenarios, but I think the scenario I spelled out is most likely.

The biggest question will be who the top overall seed is. I have Houston there now, simply because at the Reveal Kansas' Q1 wins weren't enough and no one has overcome Houston's metrics. That could put them in KC, but I wonder if they would pick KC knowing they might get Baylor or Texas as the 2-seed in KC (or K-State, certainly one of the three). Houston might choose to go West. That top seed battle is interesting.

[WhiteTrash]

Wisconsin is now listed on zero of the 93 brackets on Bracket Matrix.

Is Ohio State now a 5-seed?

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

By having Baylor remain on the two line ahead of Marquette with 4 more losses the committee is basically saying it doesn't matter how many losses you have as long as you have quad 1 wins. Baylor has 5 more quad wins on double the amount of opportunities. Its also saying that if Marquette would have scheduled Kansas 4 times they could have lost every game and remained in the same exact spot.

No that's not what it is saying.  Baylor is 11-10 against Quad 1.  Marquette is 6-5.  If Marquette went 6-9 against Quad 1, they most certainly would not be in the same spot.

Marquette also has a Quad 3 loss. All Baylor's losses have been to Quad 1.

Again, I am not going to lose sleep over being a bottom 2-seed or a top 3-seed. At that point it's just about match-ups. But I get the logic of the committee's thinking.

[HowardsWorld]

No that's not what it is saying.  Baylor is 11-10 against Quad 1.  Marquette is 6-5.  If Marquette went 6-9 against Quad 1, they most certainly would not be in the same spot.

Marquette also has a Quad 3 loss. All Baylor's losses have been to Quad 1.

Again, I am not going to lose sleep over being a bottom 2-seed or a top 3-seed. At that point it's just about match-ups. But I get the logic of the committee's thinking.

to be completely honest I dont understand the logic. Since the top 4 seeds have been released baylor has gone 2-4 and hasn't moved a single seed line on anyone predictions. Why even play the game then? Baylor should have just rested there players.

I do understand there is not much difference between top 3 and bottom 2 however.