MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: auburnmarquette on February 18, 2018, 02:40:21 PM
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/resume/page/2
I haven't studied it, but Nate Silver's blog and ESPN analytics claim the strength of record is the best predictor of March Madness bids. Marquette shot up 6 spots based on the win at Creighton and passed Syracuse for the last spot - despite Syracuse winning. Definitely a huge win.
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/resume/page/2
I haven't studied it, but Nate Silver's blog and ESPN analytics claim the strength of record is the best predictor of March Madness bids. Marquette shot up 6 spots based on the win at Creighton and passed Syracuse for the last spot - despite Syracuse winning. Definitely a huge win.
Last team in, huh. I still think 3-1 gets us to Dayton at least.
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Bracket Matrix has us tied as the 8th team out with WKU and LSU, only showing up in two brackets. We've got a long way to go methinks.
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Last team in, huh. I still think 3-1 gets us to Dayton at least.
no sir
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We got this
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Bracket Matrix has us tied as the 8th team out with WKU and LSU, only showing up in two brackets. We've got a long way to go methinks.
Yeah. The long way to go would be finishing 3-1.
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Pretty sure MU's Tourney run started wit da CU game, aina?
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Pretty sure MU's Tourney run started wit da CU game, aina?
Tru dat
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Win out and see what happens. Every game is bigger than the previous one the rest of the way. Great start last night and hope they can close the deal.
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Win out and see what happens. Every game is bigger than the previous one the rest of the way. Great start last night and hope they can close the deal.
I feel like a broken record (along with a few others here) but if we win out the only thing we'll be waiting to see is what seed we get on March 11th.
Very surprised we won last night. Hope the momentum carries into Wednesday
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Bracket Matrix has us tied as the 8th team out with WKU and LSU, only showing up in two brackets. We've got a long way to go methinks.
There's a flaw with Bracket Matrix though. Many brackets don't consider teams that aren't 4 games over .500 (a very outdated way of thinking). We hadn't been 4 games over .500 for the past 11 days.
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Nebraska with a really bad loss to Illinois this afternoon. Likely ends their chances barring a deep run in Conference tournament.
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Wish we had done a better job of defending home court this year since we have 3 quality road wins.
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we NEED a STRONG showing at the BE tourny...i know...duh but sometimes these basketball "gurus" have a short memory
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One disclaimer....3-1 plus 1-1 BET.....gets us in.
9-9 probably gets us a 7 seed playing day 1 against Depaul and (after winning) day 2 against Xavier. (Guessing a bit on those seeds).
so 9-9, 1-1, 19-13....some good Q1/Q2 competition and wins....no serious losses.
but lose to Depaul somewhere along the line....gives pause to committee guys.
But I say why not beat STJ/DP/GT/CR ... get a BET 4 seed or so (yes possible if tied with CR,SH,PV))...Beat whoever... upset X or NOVA then win the BET outright. ;D
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we NEED a STRONG showing at the BE tourny...i know...duh but sometimes these basketball "gurus" have a short memory
If we go 3-1 or 4-0, no, we don't.
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One disclaimer....3-1 plus 1-1 BET.....gets us in.
9-9 probably gets us a 7 seed playing day 1 against Depaul and (after winning) day 2 against Xavier. (Guessing a bit on those seeds).
so 9-9, 1-1, 19-13....some good Q1/Q2 competition and wins....no serious losses.
but lose to Depaul somewhere along the line....gives pause to committee guys.
But I say why not beat STJ/DP/GT/CR ... get a BET 4 seed or so (yes possible if tied with CR,SH,PV))...Beat whoever... upset X or NOVA then win the BET outright. ;D
No it doesn't. Very small chance we get the 7 seed at 9-9. Check out Creighton, SHU, Providence's records and schedules
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If we win some more games and don't lose too much, we might get in. Or maybe we won't, but I think probably we will.
Take it to the bank!
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One disclaimer....3-1 plus 1-1 BET.....gets us in.
9-9 probably gets us a 7 seed playing day 1 against Depaul and (after winning) day 2 against Xavier. (Guessing a bit on those seeds).
so 9-9, 1-1, 19-13....some good Q1/Q2 competition and wins....no serious losses.
but lose to Depaul somewhere along the line....gives pause to committee guys.
I do think not losing to DePaul or Georgetown at the BET would help. That said, if we get to 9-9, there are very good odds we're the 6 seed or better. Seton Hall has to travel to Providence and St John's before finishing with Nova and Butler at home. They could win 3, but 2-2 or even 1-3 seems most likely and puts them behind us. We have all tie breakers on Seton Hall.
I don't think a loss to a 3-seed Butler, Providence, or Creighton will hurt us much. Especially as the committee doesn't pay as close of attention to conference tournaments as they do the 4 months prior.
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3-1 is in regardless of BET results. Still gladly accepting wagers on those so confident it’s not.
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FWIW, Joe Lunardi's latest bracket update this morning still has MU nowhere to be seen.
Of course, I don't really understand how they determine NCAA tourney bids anymore, as Texas is listed as one of the last 2 teams in and MU and Texas's resumes look very similar to me (as far as RPI, SOS, record, conference record, etc).
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Don't forget that Wojo is very close to Coach K, a guy who single-handedly got NC State into the tournament a few years back by raising a fuss (and probably a good deal of lobbying behind closed doors as well).
IOW, the 'Coach K connection' gets us in, all else equal.
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FWIW, Joe Lunardi's latest bracket update this morning still has MU nowhere to be seen.
Of course, I don't really understand how they determine NCAA tourney bids anymore, as Texas is listed as one of the last 2 teams in and MU and Texas's resumes look very similar to me (as far as RPI, SOS, record, conference record, etc).
Same with Baylor. Resume is very similar.
Who does Joe list as his first four out and next four out? Surprised MU isn’t in there, and ESPNs stupid mobile site won’t show that.
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Same with Baylor. Resume is very similar.
Who does Joe list as his first four out and next four out? Surprised MU isn’t in there, and ESPNs stupid mobile site won’t show that.
He lists first 8 out as UCS, USC, Washington, Nebraska, Penn State, Utah and Boise. Don’t agree with that at all.
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He lists first 8 out as UCS, USC, Washington, Nebraska, Penn State, Utah and Boise. Don’t agree with that at all.
Guessing this has a lot to do with the fact that we just need more wins. Win the next 2 and we'll start showing up. Will be interested to see when bracket matrix updates today.
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Guessing this has a lot to do with the fact that we just need more wins. Win the next 2 and we'll start showing up. Will be interested to see when bracket matrix updates today.
Agreed, although we have very similar overall record to Texas and Baylor. But there are basically nothing about Nebraska, Penn State, Utah or Boises resumes that are superior to Marquette’s. Especially when it comes to quadrant wins.
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This guy has been the #1 bracket predictor on average over the past five years.
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
He has us first 4 out. Stewart Mandel from The Athletic has been 2nd. He doesn't have a new bracket out yet.
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This guy has been the #1 bracket predictor on average over the past five years.
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
He has us first 4 out. Stewart Mandel from The Athletic has been 2nd. He doesn't have a new bracket out yet.
Yahoo Brad Evans has been one of the most accurate over the past several years as well. He also updates his bracket real-time...it’s pretty cool feature.
He has MU as first team out currently.
https://sports.yahoo.com/college-basketball/bigboard/ (https://sports.yahoo.com/college-basketball/bigboard/)
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This guy has been the #1 bracket predictor on average over the past five years.
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
He has us first 4 out.
He says:
First Four OUT (at large): UCLA, LSU, Louisville, Marquette
And who says we're not in the same conversation as the basketball bluebloods?!?!?!
BTW, his next four teams out are: USC, Utah, Georgia, Notre Dame
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Bracket Matrix has us tied as the 8th team out with WKU and LSU, only showing up in two brackets. We've got a long way to go methinks.
I haven't checked bracket matrix, but often a lot of the brackets are a couple of days old. If that is the case then it could be many dont include the upset at Creighton, but if they are all current could suggest consensus is correct.
Adding to my comment since checking - it does look like all of the brackets we're entered after the Creighton game. I would say the fact that Utah and Maryland are ahead of us even though they are only in one bracket each - those people picked them as a 8-seed and a 9-seed - indicates we likely are ahead of them at least. It also looks like we get no credit for those who have us as next four out.
I do get nervous about Georgia being in the mix with the win over Tennessee, since I'd hate to have them and us on the final bubble with their win in Milwaukee.
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3-1 is in regardless of BET results. Still gladly accepting wagers on those so confident it’s not.
I'll put $100 on MU does not make the NCAA tournament if they go 3-1 rest of regular season and 0-1 in BET.
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I'll put $100 on MU does not make the NCAA tournament if they go 3-1 rest of regular season and 0-1 in BET.
Id prefer to do 3-1 regardless of Big East tournament results because I really don’t want to have a rooting interest in Marquette losing in the BET. But I am in on this deal in principle. PM me.
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Biggest problem as I see it for getting in, when you are so close to the bubble it does not take much to bump you or get you in. I would not take a bet either way. We could go 2-2 and get in or 3-1 and not get in, IMO. Next year, hope it is a seeding debate this time of year over bubble watch.
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Lunardi updated Bracketology today (2/19). No mention of MU, not first 4 out, not next 4 out, nothing. Take if for what is worth.
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Lunardi updated Bracketology today (2/19). No mention of MU, not first 4 out, not next 4 out, nothing. Take if for what is worth.
Really means nothing. Project out and we're right there. We have one of if not the easiest schedule in the BE from here on out. Win both games this week and I guarantee we are undeniably bubblicious.
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Really means nothing. Project out and we're right there. We have one of if not the easiest schedule in the BE from here on out. Win both games this week and I guarantee we are undeniably bubblicious.
Sounds like a great marketing campaign. Get your agent on the phone and work out a deal!
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windy
Problem with easy schedule is you have everything to lose and nothing to gain. Outside of getting W's now, really no resume builders on here.
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windy
Problem with easy schedule is you have everything to lose and nothing to gain. Outside of getting W's now, really no resume builders on here.
CU again!!!
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windy
Problem with easy schedule is you have everything to lose and nothing to gain. Outside of getting W's now, really no resume builders on here.
Yep. It's great to have an easy schedule as long as you win. It sucks if you don't.
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windy
Problem with easy schedule is you have everything to lose and nothing to gain. Outside of getting W's now, really no resume builders on here.
Over the course of the season, yes, that's right. But if Lunardi is factoring in record in anyway, then we're more detrimentally affected by our frontloaded schedule.
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windy
Problem with easy schedule is you have everything to lose and nothing to gain. Outside of getting W's now, really no resume builders on here.
I don't know. I think we have everything to gain with each win - right now, we are playing the optics game (get to 9-9 or 10-8 in arguably the best conference in the country). We're at or pretty darn close to our threshold for losses to get a bid - so you would prefer easier conference games at this point as opposed to an X or Nova game which is a virtually guaranteed twelfth loss.
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I don't understand why math is so hard for some people to understand and accept.
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I don't understand why math is so hard for some people to understand and accept.
Psh, math stifles the ego.
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I don't understand why math is so hard for some people to understand and accept.
Because they have an outdated notion of how the Committee makes its decisions.
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I don't understand why math is so hard for some people to understand and accept.
Because they have an outdated notion of how the Committee makes its decisions.
Speaking only for myself, that has absolutely nothing to do with why math is so hard for me to understand. CJPA!
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windy
Problem with easy schedule is you have everything to lose and nothing to gain. Outside of getting W's now, really no resume builders on here.
Creighton would be significant. But there's going to be plenty of losses on the bubble and intra-conference bubble teams will ensure a bunch of them. Looking at some remaining games for bubble teams...
Louisville - @ Duke, @VTech, UVA, @NC State
Syracuse - UNC, @ Duke, Clemson
Virginia Tech - Clemson, Louisville, Duke, @Miami
Miami - @ND UNC VTech
UCLA - @Utah @USC
Utah - USC, UCLA
Baylor - WVU @TCU, OU, @KSU
Texas - @KSU @KU WVU
PC - SHU, @Georgetown @XU
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..and if/when we lose to St. Johns we'll be out again.
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..and if/when we lose to St. Johns we'll be out again.
Two thumbs down.
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..and if/when we lose to St. Johns we'll be out again.
Get off my lawn damn kids!