Oso planning to go pro
Unpopular opinion.Looking at the numbers coming out of Europe, the US should proactively lock it all down. Wait our two weeks, and take our medicine. The longer we deny this, the more people become carelessly infected, and we will end up in a lockdown anyway. Do it, get it over with, save some lives.
My question is, after the two weeks, then what? It's not going to be gone at that point. Fewer infections, possibly, but once people venture back out, it kicks back up again.That is what the UK is modeling. That people won't stick with a lockdown form much more than 2-3 weeks. So they are waiting to start the lockdown until later where it will have a bigger effect.Honestly, not sure what the best plan is.
Even if it's 2 or 3 weeks, then a reprieve, then 2 or 3 weeks, etc...it phases the cases so medical professionals see cases in waves that wax and wane, as opposed to a continually increasing overflow.
I understand, but if the UK is right, and people won't follow subsequent 2-3 week isolations, then the best bet may be to wait. Also, what happens when a wave of patients start hitting hospitals, and they start rationing care to prioritize icu beds? I don't see people in the US handling that well, especially when you start to see wealthy/powerful people being treated differently. Get ready for death panels and special treatment, if the worst case scenarios hold up.I'm not advocating one or the other, just highlighting how little we know, and the difficulty in making a decision.
What it does is it allows most people who have the disease to figure out that they are sick. From the day they are infected until the day they show symptoms is within that time frame. Plus it significantly slows the spread. If you can't go anywhere without permission, you are home, and the only people you can spread it to are your family members. This quickly brings down the R0.Additionally, I'm not saying everything goes back to normal after two weeks, but it puts the spread in check, and we can reevaluate where we are at in the healthcare system at that point.
Priztker is finally talking about ordering full lock down and closing bars / restaurants. https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-pandemic-chicago-illinois-news-20200315-tn4rchjbazb73h6x2i4vz7v3xq-story.html
Good... would have been better to do it before this weekend's festivities. Heard the lines for most bars were out the doors as usual on St. Patrick's day.
Down 1 w 5 seconds left. Doable.
Making that decision would very likely result in the permanent closing of many small businesses and very painful financial situations for those living paycheck to paycheck. And you've got to think the stock market would not respond well to that news. The cost of that decision would be enormous from an economic standpoint.
if testing is a week away how are people being tested now? last week? how are cases confirmed without testing? if testing is still out and we are just guessing on the number of cases then the numbers are lower than we all think
Making that decision would very likely result in the permanent closing of many small businesses and very painful financial situations for those living paycheck to paycheck. And you've got to think the stock market would not respond well to that news. The cost of that decision would be enormous from an economic standpoint.And while it sounds cold to talk dollars when the goal is to save lives, it's a very real tradeoff that needs to be considered. Knowing that this primarily affects older citizens or those with current health issues, is it worth putting a not-insignificant percentage of the population into substantial financial risk and eroding trillions of dollars of investments in an attempt to slow the spread of a virus that is extremely unlikely to affect the overwhelming majority of the population?I only bring this up to point out show how complex this is and how a decision may have benefits in one area but consequences in another. There are many more issues to consider here beyond just healthcare. And that's exactly why there isn't a simple playbook for this and why each country has varying responses to the crisis. I certainly don't know what the "right" answer is, but I do know that any decision here is very hard to make.
My son started displaying symptoms tonight, so I took him to get tested. A parent of one of his daycare classmates tested positive today. Besides the testing area looking like a scene from outbreak, it was pretty fast and we were the only ones there for the 45 min it took. We're on self quarantine til our results come back, but stay safe out there. I think it takes a case of it hitting home (our actual home) to shed some true light on the situation.The Dr. basically said kids will be fine, they just are spreading it due to a lack of signs. My boy is sleepy now, but was happy and playing all day.He said my age group basically will get flu like symptoms and to not stress out about it unless there's severe shortness of breath (only being able to speak in one word increments was his sign to worry) Lastly, he said 65+ is prayed on by the disease. So anybody on here in that category should do their damndest to stay home and in self quarantine as much as humanly possible. Cheers everyone. Any prayers would be appreciated, and we're going to take this one day at a time. I will keep you all posted if you'd care for a separate superbar thread.
Economic impact already started.Front page of New Haven Register this morning says 2,000 state residents filed for unemployment on Friday after a very normal quiet week.
Makes sense. I would assume hiring will be a lower priority for a lot of companies for a little while here. That message might be getting out to applicants who now see a more urgent need to apply for unemployment benefits.
.My retirement date is in 3 weeks, and my employer isn't able to bring people in for interviews for my replacement. Looks like I will be getting a nice consulting contract out of the deal.
I only bring this up to point out show how complex this is and how a decision may have benefits in one area but consequences in another. There are many more issues to consider here beyond just healthcare. And that's exactly why there isn't a simple playbook for this and why each country has varying responses to the crisis. I certainly don't know what the "right" answer is, but I do know that any decision here is very hard to make.