Bubble Watch

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

1st four out:

Georgia Tech - 16-13 (7-9)
     Remaining Schedule: vs. PITT, @ Cuse, ACC Tourney
     Best 3 wins: vs. UNC, vs. Fl State, vs. Notre Dame
     Worst 3 losses: vs. Ohio, vs. NC State, @ Penn State
     Computer Numbers: Kenpom (77), RPI (96), Sagrin (81), BPI (92), SOR (57)
     Record vs. top 50: 4-7
     Record vs. top 100: 6-11

Wake Forest - 16-12 (7-9)
      Remaining Schedule: @ Louisville, @ Virginia Tech, ACC Tourney
      Best 3 wins: vs. Miami, vs. Pitt, @ College of Charleston
      Worst 3 losses: @ Cuse, @ Clemson, vs. Clemson
      Computer Numbers: Kenpom (33), RPI (45), Sagrin (38), BPI (33), SOR (46)
      Record vs. top 50: 1-9
      Record vs top 100: 6-12

Rhode Island - 19-9 (11-5)
       Remaining Schedule: @ St. Joes, vs. Davidson, A10 Tourney
       Best 3 wins: vs. Cinci, vs. VCU, vs. Belmont
       Worst 3 losses: vs. Fordham, vs. LaSalle, @ Richmond
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (53), RPI (44), Sagrin (54), BPI (41), SOR (60)
      Record vs. top 50: 2-3
       Record vs. top 100: 4-7

Georgia - 17-12 (8-8)
       Remaining Schedule: vs. Auburn, @ Arkansas, SEC Tourney
       Best 3 wins: vs. Vandy, vs. UNC Ashville, @ Tennessee
       Worst 3 losses: @ Oakland, vs. Alabama, vs. Texas A&M
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (52), RPI (56), Sagrin (50), BPI (65), SOR (52)
       Record vs. top 50: 1-7
       Record vs. top 100: 8-11

And Marquette as a comp:

Marquette - 17-11 (8-8)
       Remaining Schedule: @ Xavier, vs. Creighton, BE Tourney
       Best Wins: vs. Villanova, @ Creighton, vs. Xavier
       Worst Losses: @ SJU, @ Georgetown, vs. PITT
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (32), RPI (72), Sagrin (33), BPI (29), SOR (50)
       Record vs. top 50: 5-6
       Reocord vs. top 100: 8-10

       

[mu03eng]

1st four out:

Georgia Tech - 16-13 (7-9)
     Remaining Schedule: vs. PITT, @ Cuse, ACC Tourney
     Best 3 wins: vs. UNC, vs. Fl State, vs. Notre Dame
     Worst 3 losses: vs. Ohio, vs. NC State, @ Penn State
     Computer Numbers: Kenpom (77), RPI (96), Sagrin (81), BPI (92), SOR (57)
     Record vs. top 50: 4-7
     Record vs. top 100: 6-11

Wake Forest - 16-12 (7-9)
      Remaining Schedule: @ Louisville, @ Virginia Tech, ACC Tourney
      Best 3 wins: vs. Miami, vs. Pitt, @ College of Charleston
      Worst 3 losses: @ Cuse, @ Clemson, vs. Clemson
      Computer Numbers: Kenpom (33), RPI (45), Sagrin (38), BPI (33), SOR (46)
      Record vs. top 50: 1-9
      Record vs top 100: 6-12

Rhode Island - 19-9 (11-5)
       Remaining Schedule: @ St. Joes, vs. Davidson, A10 Tourney
       Best 3 wins: vs. Cinci, vs. VCU, vs. Belmont
       Worst 3 losses: vs. Fordham, vs. LaSalle, @ Richmond
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (53), RPI (44), Sagrin (54), BPI (41), SOR (60)
      Record vs. top 50: 2-3
       Record vs. top 100: 4-7

Georgia - 17-12 (8-8)
       Remaining Schedule: vs. Auburn, @ Arkansas, SEC Tourney
       Best 3 wins: vs. Vandy, vs. UNC Ashville, @ Tennessee
       Worst 3 losses: @ Oakland, vs. Alabama, vs. Texas A&M
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (52), RPI (56), Sagrin (50), BPI (65), SOR (52)
       Record vs. top 50: 1-7
       Record vs. top 100: 8-11

And Marquette as a comp:

Marquette - 17-11 (8-8)
       Remaining Schedule: @ Xavier, vs. Creighton, BE Tourney
       Best Wins: vs. Villanova, @ Creighton, vs. Xavier
       Worst Losses: @ SJU, @ Georgetown, vs. PITT
       Computer Numbers: Kenpom (32), RPI (72), Sagrin (33), BPI (29), SOR (50)
       Record vs. top 50: 5-6
       Reocord vs. top 100: 8-10

     

Almost literally they only reason MU would be compared negatively with those teams is RPI. That is why those who say we're out unless we win a couple in the Big East are nuts.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Almost literally they only reason MU would be compared negatively with those teams is RPI. That is why those who say we're out unless we win a couple in the Big East are nuts.

Yep.....I am doing my part to show those naysayers what the information out there reflects...and to me, its quite obvious.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Any good news is good news.
How accurate is Lunardi historically?

Very

[KampusFoods]

Any good news is good news.
How accurate is Lunardi historically?

66/68 last year. 67/68 in 2015. 68/68 in 2014. Good, but not perfect. We're waaay too close for comfort.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Almost literally they only reason MU would be compared negatively with those teams is RPI. That is why those who say we're out unless we win a couple in the Big East are nuts.

Gotta get at least 1 of these final 2.  That is for sure. 

[jsglow]

Gotta get at least 1 of these final 2.  That is for sure.

That's what is so frustrating.  We effin had it.

[BM1090]

That's what is so frustrating.  We effin had it.

Agreed. And I think if more people were saying "I'm pissed off because we had a chance to basically sew up a bid and we blew it" vs "I'm pissed off because now we need to win out to make the tournament or we suck or MU's season is over", there wouldn't be much argument.

I think we win on Wednesday. And then we're in good shape.

[Clam Crowder]

Agreed. And I think if more people were saying "I'm pissed off because we had a chance to basically sew up a bid and we blew it" vs "I'm pissed off because now we need to win out to make the tournament or we suck or MU's season is over", there wouldn't be much argument.

I think we win on Wednesday. And then we're in good shape.

When Doug Gottlieb tweeted that if Marquette won they would make the tourney...the run started. I blame him....

[jsglow]

Agreed. And I think if more people were saying "I'm pissed off because we had a chance to basically sew up a bid and we blew it" vs "I'm pissed off because now we need to win out to make the tournament or we suck or MU's season is over", there wouldn't be much argument.

I think we win on Wednesday. And then we're in good shape.

Yep.  Wednesday is like a 'do over'.  THIS time they need to get it right.

[tower912]

That's what is so frustrating.  We effin had it.

If MU holds the lead in the games in which it has blown double digit second half leads, not only would we effin have it, we would be debating seeds, matchups, and whether MU makes it to the second weekend.    Alas.   

[mu03eng]

If MU holds the lead in the games in which it has blown double digit second half leads, not only would we effin have it, we would be debating seeds, matchups, and whether MU makes it to the second weekend.    Alas.

Welcome to youth and inexperience

[GoldenWarrior11]

Somehow, someway, we will get in.  I don't know how, but it'll happen. 

[RJax55]

Welcome to youth and inexperience

We are not that young. In our 9-man rotation, only four guys (Howard, Hauser, Heldt & Cheatham) have less than 2 years experience.

Fischer, JJJ, Wilson, Rowsey and Reinhardt all are in their fourth year or more of college hoops.

[Windyplayer]

We are not that young. In our 9-man rotation, only four guys (Howard, Hauser, Heldt & Cheatham) have less than 2 years experience.

Fischer, JJJ, Wilson, Rowsey and Reinhardt all are in their fourth year or more of college hoops.

Ha, so only half with two freshman and Heldt who is the equivalent of a freshman as far as PT to date? Also, two of those other guys have never played with the team until this year. Not an excuse, but understandable why it took Wojo so long to distribute the minuets in an effective manner -- now if we can just figure out how to win as a team down the stretch.

[mu03eng]

We are not that young. In our 9-man rotation, only four guys (Howard, Hauser, Heldt & Cheatham) have less than 2 years experience.

Fischer, JJJ, Wilson, Rowsey and Reinhardt all are in their fourth year or more of college hoops.

You gotta look at it from a minutes played perspective not from a roster make up standpoint. Howard, Hauser, Heldt, Rowsey, and Katin combined have played more than 50% of our minutes and they haven't played for MU previously in any kind of consequential way (Heldt had almost no minutes last year)

[MUMountin]

If MU holds the lead in the games in which it has blown double digit second half leads, not only would we effin have it, we would be debating seeds, matchups, and whether MU makes it to the second weekend.    Alas.

Conversely, we also had a ridiculous comeback of our own against the #1 team in the country and held onto leads against Vanderbilt, Georgia, Xavier and Creighton.  While we all would love them to win every game consistently, and they are certainly frustrating at times, we should make sure not to forget the big games that they did win. 

[tower912]

Completely agree.    MU has won some games they shouldn't have.   But fans tend to fixate on the ones that got away and there are a selection of those this season.   IMO, losing the big leads is more frustrating to many than getting smoked.   

[GoldenDieners32]

In Lunardi's new bracket lunardi has us playing seton hall as a play in game 

[BM1090]

In Lunardi's new bracket lunardi has us playing seton hall as a play in game 

3 Big East teams in the first four, which makes a conference matchup necessary.

[GoldenDieners32]

3 Big East teams in the first four, which makes a conference matchup necessary.

Weird, don't they usually try to avoid the same conference teams playing each other in the first round

[DUNKS45]

Win Wednesday, and I'll feel much better. Lunardi is the best at picking the tourney. I know we can do it.

[wadesworld]

The games I would consider that probably "should" have gone a different way than they did this year that have involved Marquette are:

Went against Marquette:

• at Seton Hall
• at Providence
• vs. Pitt

Went in Marquette's favor:

• Villanova

Had a chance to steal but probably shouldn't have (and didn't):

• at Butler
• vs. Butler
• vs. Providence

These things usually even out in the end.  But so far they haven't.  Who knows, maybe we steal 2 that we get outplayed in for 38 minutes before we end the year and it does even out.

[Babybluejeans]

The games I would consider that probably "should" have gone a different way than they did this year that have involved Marquette are:

Went against Marquette:

• at Seton Hall
• at Providence
• vs. Pitt

Went in Marquette's favor:

• Villanova

Had a chance to steal but probably shouldn't have (and didn't):

• at Butler
• vs. Butler
• vs. Providence

These things usually even out in the end.  But so far they haven't.  Who knows, maybe we steal 2 that we get outplayed in for 38 minutes before we end the year and it does even out.

To further your point, KenPom lists MU as one of the unluckiest teams in all of college basketball. Our luck ranking, which is measured by the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record, is 324 out of 347. That's pretty unreal. If we can finally see some past-due reversion than MU will be dancing.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

3 Big East teams in the first four, which makes a conference matchup necessary.

Yah, but I guarantee you it won't end up that way.  They'd bump their favorite of the three BE teams up to an 11 and bye.  They won't do a conference matchup in the first four, tho I wouldn't be surprised to see 2 BE teams in Dayton, but in separate matchups.   

If any of SHU, PC and/or MU finish 10-8, they won't be playing in Dayton.